Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[Mike Sixel]

Not sure he'll be as good as Meyer......let alone better.

[tobi0040]

Nope, in Ervin Santana, I see a guy who is inconsistent until he is pitching for a contract. 

 

Anyone is welcome to address how much confidence they have that Santana will be $15 million dollars better than Alex Meyer the next few years.

 

He will, without a doubt be $15M better than Mike Pelfrey.   Ervin over Meyer assumes we have only one injury or inneffective pitcher.

[DaveW]

 

 

Anyone is welcome to address how much confidence they have that Santana will be $15 million dollars better than Alex Meyer the next few years.

That is a flawed and irrelevant argument. A rotation has 5 guys, Santana has nothing to do with Meyer's spot or future spot in the rotation.

 

That's like signing an OF for 7 million (Cuddyer?) and saying "Please show me how Cuddyer etc will be 7 million dollars better then Buxton"

[Mike Sixel]

That is a flawed and irrelevant argument. A rotation has 5 guys, Santana has nothing to do with Meyer's spot or future spot in the rotation.

 

That's like signing an OF for 7 million (Cuddyer?) and saying "Please show me how Cuddyer etc will be 7 million dollars better then Buxton"

 

How? If you have Santana, and the other four.....you don't have Meyer, right? At least until someone is hurt, or May or Gibson struggles, there would be no Meyer in the rotation, correct?

[DaveW]

How? If you have Santana, and the other four.....you don't have Meyer, right? At least until someone is hurt, or May or Gibson struggles, there would be no Meyer in the rotation, correct?

I don't think Meyer has earned a starting job out of spring training yet, at if history has taught us anything, especially with the Twins, it's that there will likely be at least 2 ineffective/injured pitchers at some point thus giving Meyer ample opportunity.

[dxpavelka]

Let's say you give Santana a 4 year deal.  Now in the rotation you have Santana locked up through 2018, Nolasco through 2017 and assuming Hughes gets a much deserved an extension, you have him through 2018+.  You now have 3/5 of your rotation on a rebuilding team all over the age of 30 and all making 10M+ per season.  Add in the fact you have 2nd year starter Gibson, now we have 4/5 of the rotation with players like Meyer/May/Berrios/ Gonsalves coming up through the system and should be in line for starts.

 

What do you do when if say Meyer and Berrios deserve starts by two older veterans making big salaries are undererforming?  Bench them?  You can't send them down.  The trade market for aging starters with big contracts pitching below their worth isn't good.  While Santana surely adds value now and is surely a Top 5, probably 3, SP on the team right now.....will he be in 2 years? 3 years?  That's where the 3-4 year contract is going to get a team like the Twins in trouble right now.  Just how I see it.

30-35 year old starters with $10 million contracts can always be moved, usually around the deadline, if your expected return is reasonable.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Meyer has earned a starting job out of spring training yet, at if history has taught us anything, especially with the Twins, it's that there will likely be at least 2 ineffective/injured pitchers at some point thus giving Meyer ample opportunity.

 

Meyer earned a spot by July of last year, we'll just 100% disagree on this one. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The (potential) Santana signing doesn't bother me in 2015. It has the potential to bother me in 2016 and beyond.

 

The 2014 rotation was awful. Santana will (hopefully) shore up that rotation in 2015... My main concerns revolve around having both Santana and Nolasco signed for three years and trying to squeeze in May, Meyer, Berrios, etc. while also retaining Hughes.

 

In the short-term, I like the idea of having another quality pitcher. In the mid-term, I'm not so sure.

[DaveW]

The way it would shape up now:

 

Hughes-Santana-Gibson-Nolasco.

 

I still see one spot open for May/Meyer/Milone/Pelfrey to compete for.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think Meyer has earned a starting job out of spring training yet, at if history has taught us anything, especially with the Twins, it's that there will likely be at least 2 ineffective/injured pitchers at some point thus giving Meyer ample opportunity.

 

You think they'll bench Nolasco or Hughes or Santana if they are ineffective? This team didn't do that last year. Swarzak got starts......

[nicksaviking]

I don't think Meyer has earned a starting job out of spring training yet, at if history has taught us anything, especially with the Twins, it's that there will likely be at least 2 ineffective/injured pitchers at some point thus giving Meyer ample opportunity.

 

He's a top prospect who's about to turn 25.  It's not about earning a spot, he shouldn't be sitting in Rochester until the front office sees exactly what they want to see.  A lot has been invested in him, we need to see what he can do, even if he hasn't earned a spot.

[DaveW]

The (potential) Santana signing doesn't bother me in 2015. It has the potential to bother me in 2016 and beyond.

 

The 2014 rotation was awful. Santana will (hopefully) shore up that rotation in 2015... My main concerns revolve around having both Santana and Nolasco signed for three years and trying to squeeze in May, Meyer, Berrios, etc. while also retaining Hughes.

 

In the short-term, I like the idea of having another quality pitcher. In the mid-term, I'm not so sure.

If Nolasco is pitching good enough to remain in the rotation, then he is pitching good enough to be traded fairly easily (even if you have to eat a couple million). Santana could be moved as well.

 

The Twins have been Rocketpig awful in the SP department for several years now, I think its foolish to suddenly worry that they will have an over abundance of arms in the next couple years. The saying "you can never have enough pitching" is universally true IMO, especially when coming off back to back to back embarrassing years.

[DaveW]

He's a top prospect who's about to turn 25.  It's not about earning a spot, he shouldn't be sitting in Rochester until the front office see exactly what they want to see.  A lot has been invested in him, we need to see what he can do, even if he hasn't earned a spot.

Then give him the 5th spot! That spot is still wide open IMO unless you think May is a shoe in.

 

Let May start out in the pen if need be, or have May start and Meyer in the pen. If both prove to be legit effective major league starting pitchers then you suddenly have a great problem on your hands as you can literally trade any of your pitchers for help in other areas (whether that be Nolasco, Gibson, May etc)

[tobi0040]

Here are a series of reasonable assumptions that have me a little baffled at why more are not on board with Ervin Santana

 

-Our pitching has been awful for 4 years, the biggest reason we have been so bad

 

-He would be our second best pitcher, outside of injury, it would seem unlikely we will have five pitchers better than him in the next 2-3 years.  If a bunch of guys pan out and Ervin is our 5th best pitcher with a 4.10 ERA, we are a contending team and that is a great problem.

 

-Guys in the rotation get hurt.  Others you think wiill pan out don't always pan out.  Most young pitchers that come up end up being sent back down to work on something.

 

-The team is always ripped on for not spending in free agency.  Best I can tell they paid for the 4th best FA pitcher on the market

 

-A 3-4 year deal here should not alter, in any way future payroll.  In other words, Hughes or Dozier should not have to leave because we have Ervin Santana on our team.  The contract expires when Sano, Buxton, Meyer, May, etc. start to get expensive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins sign another pitcher, I'll be very disappointed if Meyer doesn't start the season in Minnesota, whether it's in the bullpen or the rotation.

 

If they have concerns about his health after the end of 2014, I'm okay with giving him in a month in the minors but no more than that. The guy needs to face MLB hitting.

[DaveW]

He's a top prospect who's about to turn 25.  It's not about earning a spot, he shouldn't be sitting in Rochester until the front office sees exactly what they want to see.  A lot has been invested in him, we need to see what he can do, even if he hasn't earned a spot.

He will get his chances, signing Santana doesn't effect his ability to earn a spot out of ST. I just don't think you can slot him or really any rookie in December into the rotation for the full season and be confident. He can compete with May and Milone for the 5th spot.

[PseudoSABR]

LEN3 with a pseudo-report about the Twins continued efforts to sign Ervin Santana, here's a bit of actual news: 

Two Twins officials have shot down reports that they have offered Santana a four-year, $50 million contact. That makes sense. If Brandon McCarthy is getting $12M a year and Francisco Liriano gets $13M a year, then Santana has every right to ask for $14-15 million (my guess) because he at least knows what it's like to pitch 200 innings in a season a few times,

 

Well, it certainly seems like they are willing to go higher than 50M.

[DaveW]

If the Twins sign another pitcher, I'll be very disappointed if Meyer doesn't start the season in Minnesota, whether it's in the bullpen or the rotation.

 

If they have concerns about his health after the end of 2014, I'm okay with giving him in a month in the minors but no more than that. The guy needs to face MLB hitting.

Another pitcher beyond Santana?

I agree with that. I feel good about Hughes-Santana-Gibson-Nolasco and keeping one spot open. Much more appealing to me then: Hughes-Gibson-Nolasco and then two question marks (not to mention Nolasco is a question mark himself)

 

I want to see him up as well, but what if they bring him up in June after the deadline to gain an extra controllable year? Would that REALLY be the end of the world? Especially if May and the rest of the rotation are pitching well?

[nicksaviking]

I think we all got a little bit ahead of ourselves with the Puckett quote.  He's also tweeting quotes from Joe DiMaggio, Willie Mays and Ernie Banks. 

 

All of those players were known for playing for teams with supposed interest in Santana.  No quote from George Brett though, sorry Royals fans.

 

I have to say, I didn't want Santana on a multi year deal, but the baseball nerd in me loves the fact that he's quoting HOFers that he's likely never met. 

[Mike Sixel]

He is 25.....they have him under control until he is 31 or 32. Maybe they should just have him up, not sitting in AAA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another pitcher beyond Santana?

I agree with that. I feel good about Hughes-Santana-Gibson-Nolasco and keeping one spot open. Much more appealing to me then: Hughes-Gibson-Nolasco and then two question marks (not to mention Nolasco is a question mark himself)

 

I want to see him up as well, but what if they bring him up in June after the deadline to gain an extra controllable year? Would that REALLY be the end of the world? Especially if May and the rest of the rotation are pitching well?

No, if they pick up another pitcher, period.

 

Both May and Meyer should start the season in Minnesota. The kids won't learn how to pitch to MLB hitters if you never let them pitch to MLB hitters.

 

Meyer and May dominated AAA to varying degrees and they're both turning 25. There's little left to learn in the minors. If you're going to control a guy into his 30s either way, service time edges toward irrelevancy.

[DaveW]

No, if they pick up another pitcher, period.

 

Both May and Meyer should start the season in Minnesota. The kids won't learn how to pitch to MLB hitters if you never let them pitch to MLB hitters.

 

Meyer and May dominated AAA to varying degrees and they're both turning 25. There's little left to learn in the minors. If you're going to control a guy into his 30s either way, service time edges toward irrelevancy.

Start one in the pen and one in the rotation. More than likely both will have ample ML starts under their belts a couple months into the 2015 season. If they don't then the Twins suddenly find themselves in a possible enviable position.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Start one in the pen and one in the rotation. More than likely both will have ample ML starts under their belts a couple months into the 2015 season. If they don't then the Twins suddenly find themselves in a possible enviable position.

Oh yeah, I'm fine with one being in the bullpen if there's no room in the rotation, I simply think both should be in Minnesota.

[PseudoSABR]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  7s8 seconds ago
Source: Ervin Santana finalizing a four-year deal for around $54 million with Minnesota.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

-Guys in the rotation get hurt.  Others you think wiill pan out don't always pan out.  Most young pitchers that come up end up being sent back down to work on something.

 

What is Santana is the one who gets hurt?

 

Santana might perform as a #2, and he might not.

 

Trevor May has compelling potential as a strikeout guy. Suzuki swears by Milone and they have great rapport. Meyer has been touted as an potential ace. Those guys are all cheap. Plus whoever else is coming up from the minors or the wire.

 

So signing Ervin Santana gives you one rotation spot for those guys to compete for. I think signing Santana would be a shaky business and baseball decision. Not saying Santana couldn't pitch well occasionally, just would rather see what we got in the younger guys as starters. 

[tobi0040]

What is Santana is the one who gets hurt?

 

 

So should we never sign a free agent pitcher?

[Mike Sixel]

What would you want back in a Meyer trade?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan  7s8 seconds ago

Source: Ervin Santana finalizing a four-year deal for around $54 million with Minnesota.

 

Which now rules out the possibility of ever competing on the market for an actual ace or trading for an ace guy like Zimmerman and signing him. Bummer.

[DaveW]

I think a lot of the hesitation/hate about Santana signing has to do with Nolasco, which I don't think is very fair. Santana isn't taking a deserving rotation spot away from anyone, Santana himself is a legit/good starting major league pitcher who would find himself in the starting 5 for at least 27 or 28 of major league teams.

 

Nolasco is the one who may/may not be taking a deserved spot, if he pitches like last year then he certainly is a burden, if he can get back to his career norms he suddenly becomes an asset as either a middle of the rotation guy on the roster or someone you can likely unload in a trade if need be. (eating 8 million or so of his contract if need be would hardly kill you)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Flip Nolasco for donuts and I'll be happy with this.