Neal: Twins in on Ervin Santana

[DaveW]

Which now rules out the possibility of ever competing on the market for an actual ace or trading for an ace guy like Zimmerman and signing him. Bummer.

What are you talking about? What "Ace" at this point can they go after? I'm not sure giving Lester 160 million would be anything close to a wise decision for this ballclub.

 

Zimmerman? I don't want to give up the pieces it takes to get him. The Santana signing doesn't stop them for going after an ace on the market in 2016, 2017 etc, hell it doesn't even stop them now (though they won't, nor would have anyways)

[nicksaviking]

With a 5th year vesting option!?

[Willihammer]

They used 12 starters last year. Two of the initial 5 got hurt before the end of April. One stunk and got traded. Only Gibson and Hughes managed 30 starts. Maybe the Twins could have given some fill-in starts to Meyer or Berrios instead of Pino or Swarzak, but they didn't and I don't want to risk an entire season by slotting question marks into the starting rotation. Let them start in the pen get their shot when someone inevitably goes down.

 

As far as Meyer goes, do people remember how he finished the year? I would consider any MLB production out of him in 2015 to be a surprise and a bonus.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With a 5th year vesting option!?

It sounds like an innnings-based option, which makes it largely irrelevant.

 

If a guy is good enough to reach a decent innings threshold, then he's probably good enough to earn a paycheck.

[tobi0040]

What is Santana is the one who gets hurt?

 

Santana might perform as a #2, and he might not.

 

Trevor May has compelling potential as a strikeout guy. Suzuki swears by Milone and they have great rapport. Meyer has been touted as an potential ace. Those guys are all cheap. Plus whoever else is coming up from the minors or the wire.

 

So signing Ervin Santana gives you one rotation spot for those guys to compete for. I think signing Santana would be a shaky business and baseball decision. Not saying Santana couldn't pitch well occasionally, just would rather see what we got in the younger guys as starters. 

 

Here is what I have concluded.

 

Here is the player we sign, and the reaction.

 

Max - We gave $200M over 7 years to a 30 year old pitcher.

 

Lester - We gave $155M to a 31 year old pitcher that is not elite. A 3.58 ERA is not elite.

 

Shields - We gave $100M to a 33 year old pitcher that is not elite and has declining k rates

 

Ervin - We gave 4 years to a guy that is not an ace and is going to block someone.

 

Just about anyone else under Ervin, let the kids play and we are dumpster diving.

 

If we had let the kids play - we are cheap and never buy free agents. We should have the money. We  "stood pat" with one of the worst ERA's in baseball.  I assure you even those that think they want us to stand pat, would be kicking and screaming in June when Milone struggles or god forbid Pelfrey sees the mound.

[tobi0040]

Which now rules out the possibility of ever competing on the market for an actual ace or trading for an ace guy like Zimmerman and signing him. Bummer.

 

Zimmerman is a Boras client and they are asking for really good prospects.  It just is not a match.

[nicksaviking]

What are you talking about? What "Ace" at this point can they go after? I'm not sure giving Lester 160 million would be anything close to a wise decision for this ballclub.

 

Zimmerman? I don't want to give up the pieces it takes to get him. The Santana signing doesn't stop them for going after an ace on the market in 2016, 2017 etc, hell it doesn't even stop them now (though they won't, nor would have anyways)

 

Yes, but I'm looking at next year when he's a free agent.  Zimmerman, Latos, Cueto, Gallardo, Buchholz, Fister, Kazmir, Iwukuma, Kennedy, Porcello, Price and Samardzjia are at this time available free agents in 2016.  Price, Samardzjia and maybe another may price themselves out of the Twins price range, but most of those guys would be prime Twins targets.

 

Well they would have, likely not now.

[DaveW]

....edit

[SwainZag]

Done deal according to LEN III and Heyman.

 

[Brandon]

All that's left for our offseason is tinkering with the bullpen as we appear set in the rotation now and our lineup is set.  so is our bench though I wonder if Burgois is still an option for us?  but with 2 holes in the bullpen we have lots of candidates for, I can still see us going out and signing a project or 2 to compete for a spot.  I would also be ok with a lotto ticket of Medlin or Beachy.

[sorney]

Santana - nice grab.

Again, if we actually end up having a pitching logjam that blocks such talented pitchers, that would be a great problem to have.

[DaveW]

Yes, but I'm looking at next year when he's a free agent.  Zimmerman, Latos, Cueto, Gallardo, Buchholz, Fister, Kazmir, Iwukuma, Kennedy, Porcello, Price and Samardzjia are at this time available free agents in 2016.  Price, Samardzjia and maybe another may price themselves out of the Twins price range, but most of those guys would be prime Twins targets.

 

Well they would have, likely not now.

They can still go after any of those guys....

[SwainZag]

Yes, but I'm looking at next year when he's a free agent.  Zimmerman, Latos, Cueto, Gallardo, Buchholz, Fister, Kazmir, Iwukuma, Kennedy, Porcello, Price and Samardzjia are at this time available free agents in 2016.  Price, Samardzjia and maybe another may price themselves out of the Twins price range, but most of those guys would be prime Twins targets.

 

Well they would have, likely not now.

 

How many of these guys get resigned?  How many of these guys does Santana have the chance to put up better numbers than?  I don't see how this signing effects next year 's free agent market for the Twins anyways.  You could have said signing Hughes and Nolasco would have meant they wouldn;t be in the market for a starter this off-season.

[PseudoSABR]

Good for the Twins.  Yeah, he comes with some risks, but it's nice to see the Twins spend money on pitching even though Nolasco hasn't worked out yet; they also gave a pick.  I hope Santana can keep last years K rate (8.3 K/9), as it was a three year high.  His BABIP was unusually high last year as well...

[nicksaviking]

I don't like stiffling the youth movement and I don't trust Santana to stay healthy, but congrats to Mr. Ryan on outbidding what appeared to be some pretty big hitters.  It's a feather in his cap even if it doesn't pan out. 

[Brandon]

Also who is going to be outrighted off the roster?  Hermann?

[DaveW]

http://i.imgur.com/HTVCtVY.png?1

[DaveW]

signing Hughes and Nolasco would have meant they wouldn;t be in the market for a starter this off-season.

and Pelfrey

[DaveW]

I don't like stiffling the youth movement and I don't trust Santana to stay healthy, but congrats to Mr. Ryan on outbidding what appeared to be some pretty big hitters.  It's a feather in his cap even if it doesn't pan out. 

I don't get this whole "Santana to stay healthy" thing that's going around. The guy has been like 99% as healthy as a starting pitcher in the majors could have been during his career.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

What are you talking about? What "Ace" at this point can they go after? I'm not sure giving Lester 160 million would be anything close to a wise decision for this ballclub.

 

Zimmerman? I don't want to give up the pieces it takes to get him. The Santana signing doesn't stop them for going after an ace on the market in 2016, 2017 etc, hell it doesn't even stop them now (though they won't, nor would have anyways)

 

We're talking about the Pohlads, right??

[Brandon]

Also this should help take some pressure off of Nolasco as he is no longer the franchises largest free agent signing in history.  He can relax on the added pressure now.

[IowaTwin346]

Also who is going to be outrighted off the roster?  Hermann?

There is an opening isnt there, with Collabello getting picked up by Toronto?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes, but I'm looking at next year when he's a free agent.  Zimmerman, Latos, Cueto, Gallardo, Buchholz, Fister, Kazmir, Iwukuma, Kennedy, Porcello, Price and Samardzjia are at this time available free agents in 2016.  Price, Samardzjia and maybe another may price themselves out of the Twins price range, but most of those guys would be prime Twins targets.

 

Well they would have, likely not now.

 

Said it better than I could have. These are the Pohlads, after all. I think the Nolasco and Santana signings have shut us out of any meaningful signing in the next two or three years, when is really gonna count. I'd be happy to be wrong. 

[nicksaviking]

They can still go after any of those guys....

 

With Santana, Nolasco and Hughes still under contract, then we'll be adding Berrios to the frustrated waiting line. 

 

I'd prefer a rebuilding team not to have a stating rotation with an average age of 30.

[DaveW]

Also this should help take some pressure off of Nolasco as he is no longer the franchises largest free agent signing in history.  He can relax on the added pressure now.

True, now he just has to worry about not being the franchise's biggest free agent bust in history . Ultimately I think Nolasco will be fine the rest of his time in Minnesota (or wherever he gets traded to). Nothing spectacular, but good enough to hold down the #4 spot here or somewhere.

[DaveW]

With Santana, Nolasco and Hughes still under contract, then we'll be adding Berrios to the frustrated waiting line. 

 

I'd prefer a rebuilding team not to have a stating rotation with an average age of 30.

Luckily none of those guys have no trade clauses

[DaveW]

Also to the people listing off all the FA next off-season, with the exception of 2 or 3 I think there is a legit chance that Hughes is better than the rest, the Santana signing won't really stop them from hopefully being able to extend Hughes a few more years.

[SwainZag]

There is an opening isnt there, with Collabello getting picked up by Toronto?

That  will be filled with the Rule V pick this morning

[nicksaviking]

I don't get this whole "Santana to stay healthy" thing that's going around. The guy has been like 99% as healthy as a starting pitcher in the majors could have been during his career.

 

I get that it sounds pessimistic, but he's got a partially torn UCL.  It hasn't snapped yet but I can't stop the feeling that it is so obviously going to happen while he's playing for the Twins.  Does it not sound like exactly the kind of thing one of our Minnesota franchises should have seen coming but didn't?

[nicksaviking]

Luckily none of those guys have no trade clauses

 

I don't think a rebuilding bottom dweller would be wise to trade the prospects and keep the veterans.