Who Has More Long-Term Value, Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton?

They pay the front office to make these decisions. I am really not sure I would offer either a long term deal right now. They might have hit 2 homers on Keplar and Polanco over the winter. This winter lets hit 2 more but it is their decision on who to bet on. 

If the Twins think they can keep Sano working hard...look what happens when he does take pitches and lays off that spot the opposing team likes to pound, then there is a good chance he could become the next David Ortiz, making a comfortable living with renewable contracts staying in Minnesota. But deciding what to do with him for the next 3-5 years is more crucial. The benefit, he could move to first, which is a weak future spot for the Twins and depending on what they do with Cron, he could start there in 2020. Then slowly shift to fulltime DH. Seems the Twins always had a hardtime finding a fulltime DH before Cruz. The best may be yet to come. We'll see.

Buxton, for all his goodness, is still not there. Having that extra season of cheapness, compounded even more with a weak arbitration battle in 2020 because he basically only played half-a-season, gives the Twins at least another year of decision. But they do have Kiriloff, or maybe Royce Lewis, or a number of other considerations. Again, it boils down to money for a 3-5 year extension...and if the Twins even see that need depending on rating the prospects. I still wonder what would've happened had the Twins traded him to the Mets before the deadline...something I would've seriously considered depending on other pieces.

We also forget that the Twins have two more pressing pieces. Rosario and Berrios.

Is Berrios the Ace? Attutude there for good or bad. Be interesting to see if the deal has sweetened even more from the pre-2019 talks.

Rosario may be at his most valuable. See what happens in the playoffs. But over the years this Twins Daily board has been on the guy for non-clutch hitting, weak outfield play, always astonished when he does put up good numbers, and we wonder if it will continue. Even of late some have called him an average outfielder...like the marketplace is full of guys who hit .270 with 30 homers and 100 rbi. Well, we will find out. Like the quality season Delmon Young gave the Twins, I would almost NOT gamble on him being great and see what he could bring back in trade value this off-season. Are Raley or Rooker ready? Do we believe in Cave as a fulltime guy? Is LaMonte Wade a true prospect who could replicate something similar to Rosario? Remember, we have to find room for Larnach sometime soon, too. 

Tough decision, but Sano's rise as a power hitter in the second half has convinced me. Best thing the Twins can do next season is trade Buxton for a prospect, then fast-track Lewis, Larnach and Kiriloff, along with the promising starters in AA. Time to harvest the farm system. Bring up Ben Rortvedt to back up Garver, release Castro. 

This is a question that really can't be answered because in my opinion it all evolves around Buxtons health, since it seems Sano has turned the corner on the health issue. Unless of course he shows up next spring at 325. IF both are healthy it's Buxton. Not only is he a elite CF, he is so good he makes his side mates look even better than they really are. A game changer on defense, and on the bases. His hitting was on the upswing, which followed his history in MiLB. Sano can flat out hit with power. But a good slider gets him out too often, and his defense anywhere on the field is easily replaced. So the question really is, will Buxton ever stay healthy? Sadly, I doubt that he will.

Sano has unquestionably proven himself at the big league level offensively. Defense isn't his strong suit, but the guy can play third.

Buxton was really breaking out this season as an all-around performer. It's a shame that injuries have continued to plague him.

Jury's out, IMO.  If I had to guess, I'd say Sano has a better overall Twins career.

 

So which player will provide more long-term value for the Twins, Sano or Buxton?

I am going to say Buxton. Maybe I am optimistic to the point of being naive, but I think he will have a number of healthy seasons in a row starting next season, and when he is healthy, he is one of the best players in all of MLB.

I'm afraid that Buxton is, for lack of a better word, fragile. Don't forget the headache issue on top of the physical ailments. The future is an unknown and total guesswork based on hope. Right now its Sano for the simple reason that he's here and Buxton isn't and Sano is performing at a pretty high level. He also has the single biggest hit this season from which Cleveland has yet to recover.

While I find assigning a value to players kind of abstract, Sano's future depends if he can improve to league average at 3B. If he sticks there, he's worth so much more than at 1B/DH.

IF he can figure out how to stay healthy, Buxton holds more long term value. But it's a huge IF.

Funny... as in kinda ridiclous:

Buxton's bWAR for 2019 is still somehow higher than Sano's. Exhibit A in the limitation of WAR, and the influence extreme and questionable math on the defensive side has on it.

Recency suggests Sano would have more future value. But, I think it's still a tough call. If Buxton played 140+ games a year in center field at the offensive level he established this year, he'd be more valuable than Sano. Sano would have to materially raise his BA/OBP (which probably means lowering the K rate) to match Buxton's value if that were to happen. Still, we're currently looking at Sano trending toward improving his value, while Buxton's value seems at risk. So it's really hard to not say Sano is the better bet right now. Tough call...as Bill Brown posted above...this is why the FO make the big bucks.

Buxton for me.  His defense is top of the league valuable.  Not sure Sano has a skill that will lead the league.  Maybe home runs some year. Both are very valuable IF they can stay healthy

The fact that you acknowledge that Sano COULD lead the league in HR's some year...IMO, that's rationale for Sano having more future value, not Buxton. If I had a choice between the best defensive center fielder in the league...let's pretend he's around league average hitter....and the guy who leads the league in HR's, I'll take the guy who leads the league in HR's. Every time. IMO, the rationale for Buxton is that he is transformed offensively and his injury history pretty much immediately ends.

Funny... as in kinda ridiclous:

 

Buxton's bWAR for 2019 is still somehow higher than Sano's. Exhibit A in the limitation of WAR, and the influence extreme and questionable math on the defensive side has on it.

How quickly we forget how well Buxton was playing this season until his injury and the amount of impact he had on this Twins team. Buxton was on pace for a 6 WAR season, and assuming he can maintain his level of play for 150 games in a season (health permitting), I think he will provide more value than Sano in the upcoming years.

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You posed the question.  What say you?

Buxton's ceiling is absolutely higher, however unless his bat improves tremendously it won't play at the corner outfield positions in his later years. Sano could be a productive DH/1b OPS'ing over .900 for many more years than Buck might be in the league.

No idea who ends up having the better Twins career. If I had to guess, I'd guess neither will have long Twins careers. 

Completely unrelated, but speaking of long careers, Trout could end up in the top ten in career WAR. 

Im pretty sure Sano is not going to run into anything and hurt himself. Fat players do well, more padding. If Bucky can go all next year without being out most of the year, than I would not consider him trade bait. Unless for a good starting pitcher.

How quickly we forget how well Buxton was playing this season until his injury and the amount of impact he had on this Twins team. Buxton was on pace for a 6 WAR season, and assuming he can maintain his level of play for 150 games in a season (health permitting), I think he will provide more value than Sano in the upcoming years.

I don't think we're forgetting how well Buxton was playing. I don't, anyway. I think most here are saying that, at this point, it's just hard to ignore the risk of his health...and the risk that all the injuries will diminish/neutralize the defense that is/was driving so much of his current/past value. (I also think WAR overstates his current value because of the magnitude of the defensive component of his WAR...but acknowledge that a 2019 version of Buxton that plays 150 games and OPS+'s 115 or so, is probably more valuable than anything we've seen from Sano so far.)

I don't think we're forgetting how well Buxton was playing. I don't, anyway. I think most here are saying that, at this point, it's just hard to ignore the risk of his health...and the risk that all the injuries will diminish/neutralize the defense that is/was driving so much of his current/past value. (I also think WAR overstates his current value because of the magnitude of the defensive component of his WAR...but acknowledge that a 2019 version of Buxton that plays 150 games and OPS+'s 115 or so, is probably more valuable than anything we've seen from Sano so far.)

I totally agree. My post wasn't meant to refute your point, but to recognize Buxton had a pretty incredible 87 games played this season considering one calculation of WAR says he has provided more value to the Twins this year than Sano.

The topic of this thread is really good -- last year, with Sano hurt and Buxton struggling, how much value would either provide was probably the question being asked. Now it is which of our two mega-prospects is going to have the highest ceiling over the next decade. I like this year's question a lot better!

Buxton if he stays healthy is probably more valuable, IF and it's an if still, he hits. 2 "IFs" to make Buxton's case.

He had 80 games one year and about 30 another where he hit the ball well. Besides that, he has been worse than poor at the plate. Was he turning the corner? That's the hope and if he can OPS .800 or higher with the level of defense he has, he's more valuable. 

For Sano, I think we might be looking at a top 5 power hitter in MLB here. He has finally gotten himself back to where he started his career where he waits for a pitch he can drive hard and hits it harder and farther than anyone I myself personally have ever seen wearing a Twins uniform. 

Either way, like has already been expressed, a year or so ago, we didn't know if either of these guys would even stick at the MLB level. Now we are possibly looking at the 2 players we thought we had and that is 2 of the very top players in all of baseball. 

Keep them both here and add what it takes to get a championship. 06-10 you had it and didn't do anything. This time around lets get it right, not cheap out and go for it. 

Hopefully this year is the start of a run of dominate baseball here in MN.