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  • 4 Bold Predictions for the 2023 Twins

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Every team needs things to go right to succeed throughout a 162-game season. Here are four bold predictions that can help the Twins return to the top of the AL Central.

    Image courtesy of William Parmeter

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    Many baseball writers will make predictions in the coming weeks as Opening Day continues to creep closer. There is a fine line between what one person views as bold and what another person views as reasonable. Every year, weird things happen that go against logic and previous trends. Here are four predictions about the 2023 season, and I will let you decide on their level of boldness.

    Jhoan Duran Named to AL All-Star Team
    Duran was among baseball’s best relief pitchers last season while leading American League relievers in Win Probability Added (WPA). There is always a chance that Duran suffers some kind of sophomore slump, and previous injuries are one of the reasons he moved to a bullpen role. If healthy, it’s hard not to imagine Duran being a weapon for Dusty Baker to utilize in any inning of the Midsummer Classic. Duran has shown the ability to add even more velocity when amped up for an appearance, so one inning in the All-Star Game could be a scary proposition for NL batters. Duran would join a growing list of Twins All-Star relievers, including Taylor Rogers, Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan, Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguilera, and Jeff Reardon.

    Joey Gallo Hits 30 Home Runs
    Gallo has hit over 30 home runs in three previous seasons, including 38 home runs as recently as 2021. However, Gallo is coming off his worst big-league season, where he hit .160/.280/.357 (.638) with eight doubles, two triples, and 19 home runs in 126 games. Twins hitting coach David Popkins has been able to adjust the swings of players like Carlos Correa and Nick Gordon. There will always be plenty of swings and misses to Gallo’s offensive profile, but he can hit at an All-Star level. He may never be a 40+ home run hitter like he was in his early 20s, but Gallo is poised for a resurgent season in the middle of the Twins lineup. 

    Joe Ryan Finishes Top-5 for the AL Cy Young
    Cy Young contenders pack the American League, including Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Shohei Ohtani, and Shane McClanahan. Joe Ryan could join their ranks this season if his improved breaking stuff baffles batters. In his rookie season, Ryan posted a 3.55 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and a 151-to-47 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 147 innings. He has used his fastball over 60% of the time in his big-league career, but he worked on his other pitches this winter, which has him ready to break out. Ryan will have one of the best seasons by a Twins starting pitcher in quite some time, so make sure to enjoy the ride. 

    Byron Buxton Plays in 115 Games
    Some fans will shout that 115 games are too much for Buxton, while others will be disappointed if that is all he can’t reach the century mark. Buxton’s injury history has been well documented, and it’s one of the reasons the Twins were able to sign him to a team-friendly extension. His lone season with over 100 games was back in 2017 when he played 140 games and earned the Platinum Glove in center field. Since then, Buxton has been a completely different weapon at the plate, and the Twins will attempt to keep him healthy by using him more regularly as a designated hitter. Buxton must be available throughout the year to win the division, and 115 games seem like a reasonable goal. 

    Do you consider these predictions to be bold? What predictions do you have for the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Rod Carews Birthday

    Rod Carews Birthday 549

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    I’d put the odds as follows:

    Duran to the All-Star team, about 80%.

    Gallo for 30 HR, about 50%.

    Joe Ryan as a Cy Young Contender.  This would be something that would really propel the Twins team and bode awfully well for the next few years.  However, not yet.  Maybe. .  .20%

    Buxton in 115 games, about 80%.

    I would like to add a couple of predictions.  

    Trevor Larnach finds his health, puts up 25 HR and claims a regular starting spot.

    Carlos Correa puts himself in the MVP conversation with excellent defense, consistently good offense, and outstanding veteran leadership.  I don’t really think it’s Buxton and Correa’s team.  By the end of this year, it will be Correa’s team, and that’s a very big reason why the team signed him.

    Max Kepler will continue to frustrate everyone — the fans, the team, and likely Max Kepler.

     

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    Trov

    Trov 3,178

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    If Popkins can teach Gallo to just flip a pitch to LF when teams put that crazy OF shift on him some were doing in spring Gallo will lead league in triples.  You do not even have to hit it hard to LF just hard enough to roll far enough that the infield will not run after it.  The CF will have to run several hundred feet to LF to flag down a ball and hopefully by the time the ball gets touched Gallo would be pulling up into 3rd.  At minimum they are giving him free doubles if can figure out how to hit flies to left in those defenses. 

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 899

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    The BOLD predictions look great to me!

    1) Ryan can win 17 pitching against the 3-5 rotation guy of our competitors. If he keeps his walks in line, his stuff is supposed to be improved so he’s got a shot! He’s capable of a sub 3.40 ERA as well.

    2) If Gallo gets his 125 starts and the fans don’t get down in him he can hit 35 HR. He just hit 19 in his worst year ever!

    3) Durán makes All-Star team if he is just OK in the first half with his stats from last year - often times, what you did last year helps you attain All-star status.

    4) Hoping for 60 games in CF & 70 games at DH…….crossing fingers on this one!!!

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 899

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    49 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

    I’d put the odds as follows:

    Duran to the All-Star team, about 80%.

    Gallo for 30 HR, about 50%.

    Joe Ryan as a Cy Young Contender.  This would be something that would really propel the Twins team and bode awfully well for the next few years.  However, not yet.  Maybe. .  .20%

    Buxton in 115 games, about 80%.

    I would like to add a couple of predictions.  

    Trevor Larnach finds his health, puts up 25 HR and claims a regular starting spot.

    Carlos Correa puts himself in the MVP conversation with excellent defense, consistently good offense, and outstanding veteran leadership.  I don’t really think it’s Buxton and Correa’s team.  By the end of this year, it will be Correa’s team, and that’s a very big reason why the team signed him.

    Max Kepler will continue to frustrate everyone — the fans, the team, and likely Max Kepler.

     

    I’d really like to see Larnach stick on big club!

    If Polanco & Kiriloff come back there’s not a roster spot with Gallo & Kepler & Gordon in front of him. Maybe they cut Solano if Larnach is really playing well?

    Encouraged with Kepler’s spring hitting - not terrible! Hoping for .250 from him with a bunch of doubles.

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    FlyingFinn

    FlyingFinn 1,508

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The Joe Ryan prediction has a less than 1% chance of happening. Even if was great, his inexperience would have some voters not putting him as high as comparable vets. I also don't think Ryan will be quite this good yet, especially if the offense isn't great and the defense lacks Buxton and Kirilloff for too long, forcing Gallo to 1B. Lopez would be more likely to be top 5 Cy Young IMO.

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    stringer bell

    stringer bell 15,075

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    Larnach is my pick to break through. He's really hit well this spring. I hope Rocco will be willing to take the guy who is going least well between Gallo, Kepler and Kirilloff (if/when healthy) out of the lineup. I really don't think it will be Larnach. Of course, maybe Buxton will be playing center by then and all four of those guys can be in the lineup.

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    MTV

    MTV 161

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, h2oface said:

    Ryan should be opening day starter. Putting the new guy, who is nowhere close to an ace, at the top of your list, is disrespectful of your core that he joins. Let him earn top starter on this team, not just give it to him based on hope.

    “Nowhere close to an Ace” is a very bold take for a guy that can hold an ERA around 3.00 consistently and give you 180 innings in a year

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 41,840

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

    No not really. 🙂 

    Three of them are well within the realm of probability, and one of them is pretty unrealistic. 

    This 

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    h2oface

    h2oface 7,504

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, MTV said:

    “Nowhere close to an Ace” is a very bold take for a guy that can hold an ERA around 3.00 consistently and give you 180 innings in a year

    Consistently? Pablo Lopez didn't even come close to around 3.00 last year! 3.94 career ERA, 3.75 last year, and last year the only season he ever came close to 180 innings. A good year, for sure, but still not ace-like. Previous high innings was 111.1 in 2019 with an ERA of 5.09. His 2021 season was the only time he was ever around 3.00 with 3.07, with all of only 102.2 innings.

    So, nowhere close to an Ace, at least not yet. Not that bold of a take, really......

    Maybe this year? Does one great year make an Ace, or does it take at least 2? Maybe more?

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    mnfireman

    mnfireman 1,507

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, h2oface said:

    Ryan should be opening day starter. Putting the new guy, who is nowhere close to an ace, at the top of your list, is disrespectful of your core that he joins. Let him earn top starter on this team, not just give it to him based on hope.

    Well, following the logic on this site, the guy you get when you trade a reigning batting champion and silver slugger award winner must be an ace (if a pitcher) or a guy you plug into the middle of your batting order. Ergo, Lopez becomes the ace and opening day starter. Seriously, though, who starts the teams opening game is not a big deal. Remember, Vance Worley and Ricky Nolasco were opening day starters in 2013 & 2014.

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    h2oface

    h2oface 7,504

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

    Well, following the logic on this site, the guy you get when you trade a reigning batting champion and silver slugger award winner must be an ace (if a pitcher) or a guy you plug into the middle of your batting order. Ergo, Lopez becomes the ace and opening day starter. Seriously, though, who starts the teams opening game is not a big deal. Remember, Vance Worley and Ricky Nolasco started were opening day starters in 2013 & 2014.

    Agreed. I think it is actually an advantage to start your 2 or 3, or even 4 for the opener against their one..... Then you have our 1 against their 2, our 2 against their 3, our 3 against their 4, etc. It could be a strategic advantage for many rotations. Plus, their one could very well have a mediocre first game, and we win anyway...... or not.

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    wabene

    wabene 3,497

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Pablo is the most ramped up due to the WBC. Sonny sure looked sharp today and when he is on he is fun to watch. I don't watch other teams much but does anybody else do what he does locating that two seamer? Magic. Leftys just watch it go by, lol. Hopefully Sonny accepts the home opener gracefully as he is the most accomplished starter on the team. Pablo will be here next year and the guy is super smart and impressive not to mention young. 

    12 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

    Remember, Vance Worley and Ricky Nolasco started were opening day starters in 2013 & 2014.

    This staff could be a ton of fun, although clubbing on South Beach with Ricky in his Lambo wouldn't be too bad either, lol. 

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    mnfireman

    mnfireman 1,507

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On second thought, maybe Rocco was just checking all the egos in the rotation. Ryan (2022), Mahle (2022), Maeda (2021), and Gray (2020) have all made opening day starts. He didn't want Lopez feeling left out....:P 

    If you can't tell, I am only kidding....

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    Dr Katz

    Dr Katz 13

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Prediction: the Twins must dominate their division to have a chance to win their division, especially Cleveland. The Twins seem to have the skills and team attitude to win together this year. Bring on the playoffs! 

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    wabene

    wabene 3,497

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    39 minutes ago, Halsey Hall said:

    I can’t see Gallo having much of a year.  Duran should be our closer.  Gray, Ryan and López could all have big years.  Buxton is a bust.

     

    Howdy Neighbor!! 

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    mnfireman

    mnfireman 1,507

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Halsey Hall said:

    I can’t see Gallo having much of a year.  Duran should be our closer.  Gray, Ryan and López could all have big years.  Buxton is a bust.

     

    Insight like this is what keeps me coming back to TD....

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    MGX

    MGX 127

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I like the optimistic view. Here is how I see your 4 predictions in order based on the likelhood they will happen...

    1. Jhoan Duran an All-Star - Defintiely can see ths happening.

    2. Byron Buxton plays 115 games - This is possible & critical to the teams success

    3. Joe Ryan finishes Top-5 for the AL Cy Young - It may be a bit of a reach, but possible. I believe Ryan can take it up another notch this year. 

    4. Joey Gallo - This is a tough one because he may do this & it still might not be a positive. He was awful last year & he hit 19 HR's in 350 AB's so he would have hit 30+ HR's last year had he been given the playing time. He's here & going to play so I'm hoping for the best, but to me he is the biggest potential issue on this offense. He's been at the same level of production since the middle of the '21 season. If he continues to struggle how long do we give him playing time over others?

     

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    Fire Dan Gladden

    Fire Dan Gladden 1,182

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Boldness ratings on your predictions (out of 5)

    Duran:  B  
    Possibly the least bold prediction you could make for the Twins this year

    Gallo:  BB
    To me this is all about ABs.  Right now the Twins look like they are going to give him a whole bunch.

    Ryan:  BBB
    Seen a few places that have Joe Ryan as a Cy Young dark horse this year.  If this happens... whew.

    Buxton:  BB (115 games played)
    Buxton:  BBBBBBBBBBBB (115 games played in the OF)
    Buxton is quickly becoming the next Edgar Martinez

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