Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

 

I like having a big bad bull in the back of the pen, think Marshall, Reardon or Aguilera. I also like defined rolls. The game is fluid and pen arms can warm up quickly but mentally it's easier if you have a roll.

 

Yum!

Yeah, I feel like May is the closer.  He's that "big, bad bull."  He's got tenure (on the team at least.). Certainly has the stuff.

 

They're gamboling,(thanks autocorrect) and they are gambling as well.  But short of the Yankees approach, it seems almost every bullpen is a gamble.  The World Champion's bullpen seems awful to me right now.

 

Presumably, the Twins can turn around and trade Alcala for this year's Pressly when the time comes.  If it comes.  In the meantime, they aren't doling out contracts to Addison Reed, or Greg Holland, or [insert cherry-picked flamed-out high-dollar reliever here].

And, right on cue:  https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/3/20/18272417/red-sox-opening-day-lineup-bullpen-projections-world-series-winner

 

Skip down to get to the bullpen part...they mention Joe Nathan!

OK, so we are trying something new.  We'll see how it goes.  Data is important, but if the entire league does not embrace the best available arms in high leverage situations then is there really enough data to determine that this is a better route.  And, does the data also suggest that there is no drop off in pitcher performance in less defined roles?  I am excited for this season, but am really worried that pitching let-downs in hight leverage situations will cost us a bunch of wins.  

I would add Eades as depth also. Louisiana high school player of the year and MVP of the Cape Cod League. Never understood why he didn't make it. Very good last half season last year.

 

The easy answer for a stable bullpen is Addison Reed. Need to let that play out.

 

I would add Eades as depth also. Louisiana high school player of the year and MVP of the Cape Cod League. Never understood why he didn't make it. Very good last half season last year.

 

The easy answer for a stable bullpen is Addison Reed. Need to let that play out.

 

Eades looks like he has the repertoire, at least to this amateur's eyes. Could be a sleeper for later in the year.

I have no confidence in Addison Reed.

Ryan Pressly was good but not elite until he joined Houston.  He has publicly credited Houston coaching as the reason he was so good last year.  If we are talking about replacing the 2018 pre-Houston output or his career 3.54 ERA/3.56FIP then losing him is much more reasonable.  If Blake Parker can replicate his 2018 ERA (Not a given but possible) we will have essentially replaced Ryan Pressly.  If Romero, Mejia or another newcomer in the bullpen can manage a 3.50 ERA we will have essentially replaced Ryan Pressly.  I like the direction our analytics is going but I'm not ready to say we would have the same results with Pressly that Houston had immediately with him.

 

2018

Twins 3.40 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 2.95 FIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.9HR/9, 3.6 BB/9

Astros 0.77 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, 1.49 FIP, 4.2 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 1.2 BB/9

 

1.1 of his 1.9 fWAR was with Houston in 23.1 innings, he managed 0.8 in 47.2 innings with us.  Had he continued on his Twins pace he would have had a 1.2 fWAR and been ranked 39th among relievers.  Still a great mark but Houston deserves a lot of credit here. 

Edited March 20, 2019 by SomeGuy

I saw Pressly my requisite two times against the Angels. He had two blown saves. Blame can be laid at the feet of the pitching coaches from what I witnessed. I don't remember the first appearance, but in the second appearance, he gave up a two-run blast. Out of 16 pitches, he threw 14 breaking balls. His last breaking ball was hammered. He was visibly upset and struck Trout out with three consecutive fastballs--completely overpowered him. It was head scratching.

Warning: off-topic post approaching...I just returned home from my gym where I got to watch MLB baseball during prime time--a first for me here in Japan. The gym area closed with two outs and two strikes on Chapman, so I am assuming the Mariners beat the A's 9-7, which made the fans in The Big Egg happy because they could see a win in Ichiro's unretirement party (of two games). Since he didn't get any hits, they showed him lining a foul ball to right field at least six times.

 

Interestingly, two former Twins appeared: ロビー　グロスマン　&　フェルナワドー　ロドニ (Robbie Grossman and Fernando Rodney). Robbie Grossman pinch hit in the 7th and slapped a single to left on a 3-2 fastball and Fernando Rodney was three balls on every batter but only gave up a walk and a single. The Japanese announcers were fascinated with Rodney's classic pose, showing a replay of his pose for the TV audience (he did it before the game had started).

 

It was fun to watch. The Twins will likely be on TV more this year because of Kikuchi and Ohtani, so let's, "Play ball!"

 

I'm sure Houston's adjustments helped him achieve those absurd numbers in August & Sept, but we can fairly assume he was gonna have a monster second half no matter where he was. The dude was throwing unbelievably well when the Twins traded him. He had a 0.90 ERA, .523 opponents' OPS and 17% swinging strike rate in 10 July appearances for the Twins before they dealt him.

 

He's one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball, plain and simple. That was evident before he was moved. It just seems so odd to me that they invested all that time and effort into developing him into such a weapon, then just as they were starting to fully reap the benefits, they trade him for another project. 

So what your saying is that before a great 10 game stretch prior to his trade, his ERA was at 4.14 with the 2018 Twins. 

 

Houston unleashed a completely different beast just like they did with Verlander, Cole, Osuna, and Morton.  The player that Houston just resigned is not the same player the Twins traded.  He was good but not one of the most elite relief pitchers in the game.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c427047cf821

It seams like something is wrong with Romero... two bad outings... 

 

thots? 

So what your saying is that before a great 10 game stretch prior to his trade, his ERA was at 4.14 with the 2018 Twins.

 

Houston unleashed a completely different beast just like they did with Verlander, Cole, Osuna, and Morton. The player that Houston just resigned is not the same player the Twins traded. He was good but not one of the most elite relief pitchers in the game.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c427047cf821

He was, to that point, also ridiculously overworked. He made his 41st appearance on June 29 during team game number 78. He was on pace to appear in 85 games. Mike Marshall holds the team record with 90 appearances in 1979. “Everyday” Eddie had 83 in 1996 and JC Romero had 81 in 2002. No other Twin has ever been over 80.

 

 

Houston drastically cut his workload. That is what made him an elite reliever IMO.

Although none of us know what he is working on or his physical condition, Romero is pitching himself onto a flight to Rochester these last couple times out.  His results today were ugly.

This team doesn’t have a lights out closer and has (at best) two “lights out” relievers - May and Rogers.

 

He was, to that point, also ridiculously overworked. He made his 41st appearance on June 29 during team game number 78. He was on pace to appear in 85 games. Mike Marshall holds the team record with 90 appearances in 1979. “Everyday” Eddie had 83 in 1996 and JC Romero had 81 in 2002. No other Twin has ever been over 80.


Houston drastically cut his workload. That is what made him an elite reliever IMO.

Ryan Pressly says it was the Houston coaching and analytic dept. That's his opinion.

 

At the time of the trade he was averaging an appearance every 2 games (pace for 81 games)with the Twins and that did decrease to an appearance every 2.3 games with Houston (pace of 70.4 games) But by this theory his 2017 would have been much better when he totaled 57 appearances over the entire healthy season (64 appearances if you include his demotion to AAA).  Or in 2016 when he had a similar appearances per game to his Houston use of 2.25 (72Games), he was not elite in either of these seasons. 

 

“Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.”

 

“Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”

Ryan Pressly says it was the Houston coaching and analytic dept. That's his opinion.

 

At the time of the trade he was averaging an appearance every 2 games (pace for 81 games)with the Twins and that did decrease to an appearance every 2.3 games with Houston (pace of 70.4 games) But by this theory his 2017 would have been much better when he totaled 57 appearances over the entire healthy season (64 appearances if you include his demotion to AAA). Or in 2016 when he had a similar appearances per game to his Houston use of 2.25 (72Games), he was not elite in either of these seasons.

 

“Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.”

 

“Every team has an analytics department, and this is no knock on the Twins, but seeing the time [the Astros] put in and the scouting reports you’re given, it’s like, ‘Whoa.’ It’s a different level,” Pressly said. “You kind of see, ‘Wow, if I just pitch a little more to this percentage instead of that percentage I can have some better results.’ When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch. Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’ ”

 

You are not looking nearly deep enough into the numbers.

 

On July 8, 2016, Pressly made appearance # 44 in game # 86. It was clear at the time that his stuff wasn’t as sharp. And there was no reason to overwork him. The 2016 team was never in the race. Apparently, the manager realized this during the AS break, cut his load and he was able to finish out the season with only 28 appearances in the team’s remaining 76 games. I speculated at the time (not sure if it was on this board - that may have been rube chat that far back) that the damage may have already been done and that Pressly would likely struggle the following year, especially if he was overworked early again.

 

Sure enough.

 

On May 7, 2017, Presly made appearance number 15 in game number 29. The results had been so poor to that point, the Twins had no choice but to reduce his workload. Big shock, his ERA dropped 4 points the rest of the way with a lower workload.

Agree completely about Reed. Just doesn’t have it. And I know a lot love Alcala but he simply isn’t a better pitcher than Wells. At all. And why is Wells in the pen? He’s definitely starter material, maybe long relief I suppose. But SP is pretty jammed so.. but yeah, No to Reed.

 

You are not looking nearly deep enough into the numbers.

On July 8, 2016, Pressly made appearance # 44 in game # 86. It was clear at the time that his stuff wasn’t as sharp. And there was no reason to overwork him. The 2016 team was never in the race. Apparently, the manager realized this during the AS break, cut his load and he was able to finish out the season with only 28 appearances in the team’s remaining 76 games. I speculated at the time (not sure if it was on this board - that may have been rube chat that far back) that the damage may have already been done and that Pressly would likely struggle the following year, especially if he was overworked early again.

Sure enough.

On May 7, 2017, Presly made appearance number 15 in game number 29. The results had been so poor to that point, the Twins had no choice but to reduce his workload. Big shock, his ERA dropped 4 points the rest of the way with a lower workload.

So your argument is that it is a mental thing when he pitches too often or he is physically breaking down?  You would think that his velocity/Movement would reflect some sort of change on a month to month change if he was physically affected by his workload.  His innings per month isn't really supporting a drastically lower workload.  More rest days but longer outings.  Would this disqualify him from any sort of defined closer role if you were running the team?

 

In 2017 Pressly pitched 9 innings in april, 9 innings in May.  You call this overworked.

He pitched 11.2 in July, 16 in July, 11.2 in August.  You call this a lower workload. 

I'm going out on a limb here and saying that he worked on something or had a wake up call with the June demotion to AAA.

 

2016 also show no signs of overworked in an innings per month standing.  Certainly doesn't seem like less equals more.  Had he thrown 2/3 of an inning more in June would he have lost that 4 point improvement?

April 14.1 innings 3.14ERA

May 14.1 - 6.28 ERA

June 13.2 - 1.98 ERA

July 11.2 - 3.09 ERA

Aug 12.2 - 3.55 ERA

Sept 8.2 - 4.15 ERA

 

We are over thinking what Ryan Pressly himself has told us is the a result of Houston coaching staff.

Working a guy more than every other game for an extended period is simply too much for anyone. It isn’t about innings per month. It’s about appearances per team game at an unsustainable level.

 

And yes, I think it is physical breakdown. The fastball has less zip. The breaking ball has less bite. I know there are people here who are a lot better at breaking down in season velocity and break rate changes than I am. I just know what my eyes were telling me.

Working a guy more than every other game for an extended period is simply too much for anyone. It isn’t about innings per month. It’s about appearances per team game at an unsustainable level.

 

And yes, I think it is physical breakdown. The fastball has less zip. The breaking ball has less bite. I know there are people here who are a lot better at breaking down in season velocity and break rate changes than I am. I just know what my eyes were telling me.

At no point in his career did Pressly suddenly become elite with a lower number of appearances. Except the time he was acquired by the Houston Astros.

 

His fastball velocity remained consistent month to month each season 2016 to 2018.

Edited March 20, 2019 by SomeGuy

 

He was, to that point, also ridiculously overworked. He made his 41st appearance on June 29 during team game number 78. He was on pace to appear in 85 games. Mike Marshall holds the team record with 90 appearances in 1979. “Everyday” Eddie had 83 in 1996 and JC Romero had 81 in 2002. No other Twin has ever been over 80.


Houston drastically cut his workload. That is what made him an elite reliever IMO.

 

Pressly threw 47.2 IP for the Twins across 103 games. His Astros stats were 23.1 IP in 56 games. Had the Astros used him 2.2 more innings, it would've been equal use. Nothing drastic.  

Pressly threw 47.2 IP for the Twins across 103 games. His Astros stats were 23.1 IP in 56 games. Had the Astros used him 2.2 more innings, it would've been equal use. Nothing drastic.

 

Should we be looking over the long term or would it be a very busy week or a couple of back to back games close together?

 

I have no idea how to judge but it seems a short period of overuse could have an effect that lasts for a stretch. I also wonder about that 2.2 out of 23.1 which probably represents 3 outings or almost 10% of the 23.1. I am not confident that is insignificant. The other unknown is how many times the manager warmed the reliever up.

 

I will be interested to see if Baldelli manages the pen differently.