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Two days ago, we framed the Twins payroll situation, emphasizing that before the individual roster decisions needed to be made, some more significant decisions needed to be made. The top one was what the Twins would do about their expiring $54M TV deal.
What is clear is that $55M in gross revenue is at stake. The Twins (and most MLB clubs) claim they spend slightly over 50% of their gross revenue on players' salaries. That could mean an estimated $30M drop in payroll. That's the bad news.
The really bad news came yesterday: that is the plan. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins Opening Day payroll is likely in the $125-$140M range, down roughly $15-30M from last year's ~$155M Opening Day Payroll. If you play with Twins Daily's Payroll Blueprint for even five minutes, you'll see just how limiting that is because their default payroll is already $115-$125M.
Here are the six crummiest results you'll find.
1. See Ya, Sonny
The Twins were likely to be measured chasing free-agent starting pitching; they have been ever since Falvey took charge of the Twins in 2017. To return to last year's (admittedly) excellent standard, they must sign at least one pitcher that can replace the American League ERA leader, Sonny Gray.
That's not going to happen now. Today's Offseason Handbook story details the starting pitching market and categorizes players as "too hot" (the Twins won't pay that much), "too cold" (the Twins can afford them, but they don't replace Gray), or "just right" (they can replace Gray but could be expensive).
Today's news means they're targeting pitchers that only need a one-year contract, all of whom will fall in the "too cold" or below category. They could sign a pitcher at the level of Kenta Maeda, or a riskier pitcher with higher upside on a make-good contract, or a veteran #4 or #5 pitcher who can eat some innings. But whomever they choose, they aren't replacing Gray - or anyone even near his level - via free agency.
2. So-so Center Fielder and Blowing Off Batters
Dreaming of adding that big, right-handed bat this winter? Keep dreaming. Unless payroll is subtracted in some other way (which we'll get to), this cut only leaves money for one mediocre bat to be added. That one is likely spoken for: the Twins need a center fielder.
With Michael A. Taylor becoming a free agent and Byron Buxton's health in question, center field is the one "to do" that must get done. This payroll cut means it won't be a high-end option like Cody Bellinger or Japan's Jung Hoo Lee. The Twins are likely limited to precisely the level of Taylor or below while hoping that some of their prospects, like Austin Martin, challenge for the role by midyear.
3. Desirable Duo
The Twins want Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the roster next year. The veteran duo will not need to be moved to hit the new payroll level. But trading either would give the team an additional $10M for other needs.
So, while the Twins won't actively shop Polanco and Kepler, they won't need to. Polanco is more valuable than any other second baseman (indeed, middle infielder) free agent. Max Kepler would be a top-10 hitter in this thin free-agent market. Teams looking to get better are already asking about them. In addition, any team the Twins approach about a trade (for, perhaps, a starting pitcher) will ask for Polanco or Kepler as a possible return.
So, this cut doesn't mean they'll be moved; I'd still put the chances as less than 50% that either will be traded. But it does mean the Twins front office will have a better reason to listen.
4. Farewell Farmer
The Twins have one borderline case for arbitration, and payroll cuts are not good news for borderline arbitration cases. Offering Kyle Farmer arbitration guarantees him approximately $6-7M to be a utility player. The Twins now need that money for a less luxurious role, like a center fielder.
Farmer will either be non-tendered by the Twins next week before the non-tender deadline (11/18) or traded to a team that needs a shortstop, the same way the Twins did when they acquired Farmer last year. Either way, he won't be on next year's roster.
5. Harvesting the Farm
Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins' prospect because this cut means it's much more likely they'll get traded away this year. If the Twins can't replace their pitching or center fielder with money, they'll resort to trading prospects. The good news is that this has often worked well for the Twins. Jake Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, and Taylor came from trading away prospects.
6. Foul Up Fan Support
After waiting almost 20 years for a postseason win, Twins fans finally experienced a postseason run. When the Twins won that first game of the Wild Card Round and then advanced, tickets that cost $4 for Game 1 of the Wild Card were selling for $100 for Game 3 of the ALDS.
That support, I'm sure the Twins hoped, would transform into season ticket holders. But the easiest way to squash any support from the Twins fan base is to threaten their team by withholding resources.
Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it.
7. The Silver Lining is Streaming
One piece of good news: the Twins clearly understand the value of streaming their games on the internet. Streaming rights have been the source of this conflict, ending their TV deal. If they're sacrificing tens of millions of revenue, they think they have identified avenues for fans to stream content in 2024 that have not existed for years.
Whatever the new TV solution is, those fans who have cut the cord will get to watch their Twins in 2024 and beyond. It'll just be a more financially slimmed-down version of the team.
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