The Rollercoaster Development Reality of Most Top Prospects

Great article!

For the Twins, certainly, player performance and development is all over the place in the minors and MLB. It happens elsewhere, too. Acuna, Rodriguez, Manoah, Keith,  That said, derailment of development timetables for injury is one thing. To have players struggle on a repeat of the same level and then go on to be studs at the MLB level doesn't feel very common to me.

In any case, it's okay for a prospect not to work out. They usually don't. Explanations like "it's not linear" should be pretty well taken care of by the time they hit MLB, but it still occasionally happens that a player needs a reset in the minors to work on something. That's a big reason why options exist. That said, the Berrios' of the world aren't incredibly common. Guys who stink at the MLB level, then go down and come back up to dominate. There are tons of "sophomore slumps" which are actually just opponents figuring a guy's weakness out.

Looking at the top 20 fWAR position players in MLB right now (not named Ohtani): Harper, Lindor, Marte, Duran, Devers, all had what I'd call a hiccup in their development. That's about a 25% chance. At least a couple of those guys were in the big show at age 20-21.

Lewis is probably the most glaring example of non-linear development on the Twins right now. Nothing in his MiLB career really pointed to him being good at the plate. He looked rough in AA before he lost a couple years, but when he came back, he was a totally different player. An MVP caliber guy. Wallner changed his approach at AA a couple years ago when he learned he wasn't on the path to ever being a big leaguer because he was Eddie Rosario out there, hacking away at bad pitches. I don't think it's a coincidence those adjustments were made pre-AAA.

75% of the time, when you see a hiccup, it's not a hiccup. It's a talent ceiling being reached.

Absolutely true!  Unfortunately, we as fans like to project that fast start that a prospect has into MVP's and All Star appearances, so undoubtedly we end up disappointed.  Even great players have those moments where they get a "good talking to" by managers/coaches and many go back down to the minors to figure it out.  Sometimes it's nobody's fault.  It's just a part of the (admittedly very long) process.  Patience is definitely the name of the game.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

75% of the time, when you see a hiccup, it's not a hiccup. It's a talent ceiling being reached.

I mean I think only 5% to 10% of drafted players make it all the way to MLB and even fewer become star players.  So yeah most of the time (90% of teh time) they are going to stall out at a level permanently.  I think the main message of this article is simply not to give up too early.

As we have recently seen with Castro and Rooker and others.  Given time players can sometimes work through those struggles and be important players for a team even if it takes longer than expected..  

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

8 young quality talent there & Castro only turned 27 in April all have great potential & deserve to start games for the Twins right now.

You deserve it when you prove it at the MLB level. The Twins are in the play-offs hunt, and this isn't the time or place for on-the-job training. That is what AAA is for.   Miranda and Lee are playing because they are contributing, not because they have 'great potential.' We can hope that Wallner figured it out while at AAA, and Julien will also be ready. They were stinking up the joint for the Twins - it's notable that the offense picked up considerably when proven veterans like Correa, Buxton, Santana, and Kepler started picking it up.

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Experienced baseball players are also rollercoasters. 

Look no further than Correa last year. Buxton has been rather up and down.

They have down years, average years and great years in no particular order. 

The difference is that the prospects get sent down and we blame it on development or inexperience. 

There doesn't seem to be a blanket assessment like development or inexperience when it happens to Randy Arozarena or George Springer.  

This is what I pay for.

Lee. I think they might have caught lightning.

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No prospect is a finished product, and they will 100% learn on the job at the MLB level. 

On the contrary, the Twins decided that Wallner and Julien had to learn their way back to MLB at AAA.  Complete agreement on that - the poster I responded to believes you should play the young players 'because they have potential.' That is what teams out of the play-off race do. 

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The thing with age is that at some point they have to be put on the 40 man, and generally decent or better teams are not putting a 26 year old guy on the 40 man

There are still the Brock Stewarts and Caleb Thielbars of the world that are notable exceptions - and at ages far in advance of 26.

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

How would Lee and Miranda have "prove it" if they never got a chance because we are in the play-off hunt?   How do you prove it's not just potential if you don't get a chane.  Did you notice that Garcia played a major role in a world-series run and he did not even make his debut until September.  Good thing Texas did not think you should hold players down if you are a playoff team.   

Both Lee and Miranda got their chance because of injuries - not because they're young players with potential who 'deserve' a chance to start. It's also why both Wallner and Julien were sent back down - they didn't 'deserve' to play, based on their MLB performance. Wallner performed very well at AAA, and now he's back and has another shot. Julien has his AAA OPS up to .789, and if they need another infielder, he might get a shot yet this year. That said, he won't get that shot just because of potential. The goal is to make the play-offs, and those who have already proven it are going to play - as it should be.

I have no idea what you are talking about regarding Texas' Garcia. Ardolis Garcia debuted with Texas in 2021 and played 149 games for them that year, then 156 in 2022 and last year, when you say he did not make his debut until December, he played in 148 games - how the heck do you do that in September? 

19 hours ago, jimmyc said:

The mythology around Torri and Morneau makes for a good story but the reality is different.  Neither one bounced up and down several times.  They each had one decently long stretch stretch in MLB, was sent down once for a stretch and was then back up for good.  You can actually look it up.

That is correct, but in Torri's case, he played 135 games with the Twins in 1999 and was sent down for 55 games in 2000 - in that respect, it reminds me of Wallner and Julien, who both spent/are spending a significant amount of time back in AAA. In Morneau's case, he had only played 40 games with the Twins in 2003, so it's not as surprising that he basically spent half his time the next year between AAA and the AL. 

On 7/12/2024 at 12:04 PM, Dman said:

I mean I think only 5% to 10% of drafted players make it all the way to MLB and even fewer become star players.  So yeah most of the time (90% of teh time) they are going to stall out at a level permanently.  I think the main message of this article is simply not to give up too early.

As we have recently seen with Castro and Rooker and others.  Given time players can sometimes work through those struggles and be important players for a team even if it takes longer than expected..  

The article talked about top prospects, though it's hard to delineate there what that means. About 80% of 1st round picks make the big show. About 20% become starter caliber or better MLB players.