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Leading up to the trade deadline, Texas was rumored to be shopping several pitchers on expiring deals. As the deadline approached, the Rangers’ fortunes were trending up, and they kept everyone but Michael Lorenzen. However, they are now nine games out of playoff position and all but out of contention, leading to the possibility of dumping everyone they can. The Angels did this in 2023, and it led to the Guardians claiming multiple players in an (unsuccessful) attempt to make the playoffs. Could the Twins do the same this season, with better results?
Let’s start by looking at the players who could be waived, and their salaries for the rest of the season. Based on the Twins’ needs, we will only look at pitchers. Below are their remaining salaries and 2024 fWAR.
- SP2 Nathan Eovaldi - $2.6M - 1.8 fWAR
- SP2 Max Scherzer - $2.1M - 0.7 fWAR
- SP3 Andrew Heaney - $2M - 1.9 fWAR
- RHRP David Robertson - $2M - 1.6 fWAR
- RHRP José Léclerc - $1M - 0.3 fWAR
- LHRP Kirby Yates - $0.7M - 1.6 fWAR
- LHRP Andrew Chafin - $0.7M - 0.3 fWAR
All seven of these pitchers would immediately upgrade the Twins’ pitching staff. Kirby Yates would slot in alongside Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán at the back end of the bullpen, as would David Robertson. José Léclerc and Andrew Chafin would be more secondary setup men, but they would supplant guys like Steven Okert, Caleb Thielbar, or Trevor Richards. On the starting pitching front, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney would all slot in as playoff-caliber pitchers who could step into Joe Ryan’s spot in the rotation, taking the pressure off of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews to immediately perform, and allow them the normal peaks and valleys of player development.
Of these players, Scherzer has a full no-trade clause, but it’s possible he would waive this to pitch for a World Series contender. Eovaldi has a vesting option for more than the Twins would be comfortable paying, but it’s a dice toss whether he will accumulate enough innings, and the Twins could certainly trade him should his option vest. Robertson has a $7 million mutual option with a $1.5 million buyout, which the Twins would likely decline should the opportunity present itself. Chafin also has a $6.5 million club option with a $500,000 buyout, which the Twins would certainly decline. The other pitchers are free agents at season’s end.
Were the Rangers to take a page out of the 2023 Angels playbook and waive them all, the Twins would likely be lucky to claim one of the above pitchers, as claims happen in reverse order of the standings, and if you haven’t noticed, these Twins are pretty good. Here are the teams in contention with a worse record than the Twins.
- Royals - currently have the third AL Wild Card.
- Red Sox - one game back of the third AL Wild Card.
- Astros - currently leading the AL West and their window of contention may be closing.
- Mariners - 1.5 games back in the AL West, 2 games back of the third Wild Card.
- Braves - holding onto the third NL Wild Card.
- Mets - one game back of the third NL Wild Card.
- Cardinals - 3 games back of the third NL Wild Card.
- Diamondbacks - tied for the first NL Wild Card.
- Padres - tied for the first NL Wild Card.
- Giants - 2.5 games back of the third NL Wild Card
As you can see, there are as many as 10 teams who may see themselves as one pitcher away from ekeing into the postseason and who would have waiver priority over the Twins. However, the Red Sox, Giants and Padres have both been cutting payroll this season, and it’s possible that neither would want to take on additional salary. Similarly, the Diamondback are broadcast through MLB and have taken a revenue hit.
Then, we have the teams who have great pitching already - I’m looking at the Mariners (3.52 staff ERA), and the Braves (3.74 staff ERA). The Astros have a top-10 pitching staff as well, so it’s possible they wouldn’t see a real need to add. However, the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Mets all have bottom-10 pitching staffs, so it’s likely they would submit multiple waiver claims, should the opportunity present itself.
All of that says that there are four likely teams with ample budget space and the need with waiver claims ahead of the Twins - the Royals, Mets, and Cardinals. Any of those teams could place multiple claims, while the other teams would likely either stand pat, or make one claim.
Realistically, even if the Rangers were to waive the entirety of their good pitchers on expiring deals, the Twins might not get a chance to claim one, and that’s if the Pohlads were willing to spend another $2-4 million, which (rumor has it) they were unwilling to do at the deadline. However, the potentially season-ending injuries to Ryan and Justin Topa, and the season-ending surgery for Brock Stewart may convince them that a small capital outlay would move the team forward and buy fan goodwill, particularly as game attendance is on the rise.
If things work in the Twins’ favor, they just may find the pitching upgrades they needed at the deadline, and need more today. Nathan Eovaldi, David Robertson, or Kirby Yates would go a long way toward improving the Twins pitching staff come October.
What do you think? Would you be interested in any of these players if the Rangers waive them? And if the Rangers do, do you think the Twins have a realistic shot? Comment below to start the discussion!
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