Max Kepler’s Departure and the Expected Decline of the Twins' Outfield Defense

Hopefully Martin is shagging fly balls right now and will continue to do so until spring training. ⚾️

If Larnach and Wallner can get and keep the bats going, you can live with a bit less on defense. Let's not forget the primary reason for the teams failure down the stretch was offense, not defense. It's one thing to be strong defensively, but if it hinders you offensively it isn't going to help enough to matter. 

37 minutes ago, rv78 said:

If Larnach and Wallner can get and keep the bats going, you can live with a bit less on defense. Let's not forget the primary reason for the teams failure down the stretch was offense, not defense. It's one thing to be strong defensively, but if it hinders you offensively it isn't going to help enough to matter. 

Hmm.

2024

2023

A lot of close games in 2023; a lot of Twins being blown-out in 2024, heck , who needs defense, all that does is keep the score close.

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

If Larnach and Wallner can get and keep the bats going, you can live with a bit less on defense. Let's not forget the primary reason for the teams failure down the stretch was offense, not defense. It's one thing to be strong defensively, but if it hinders you offensively it isn't going to help enough to matter. 

The problem with poor defense is that fly balls that any decent outfielders catch fall, some for extra bases and combined with all of the ground ball outs that manage to elude our infielders .... well, no pitcher can escape undamaged from that mess. An average defense with a good offense can be ok, but it is rare when an offense can overcome horrid defense.

Of course, some believe that the Twins defense is ok. I can't spend any time contradicting that thought. 

I know I date myself badly but I keep going back to those Twins, Dodgers, Orioles, and A's teams of the 60s and early 70s.

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think Trevor Larnach is going to be given strong consideration to be traded. He's already in arbitration, like mentioned the OF defense is a bit of a concern, and he's left handed. Coming off of his best season, I wouldn't be surprised if they look to sell high.

He could also DH.  Larnarch was DH a fair amount last season.

12 hours ago, RpR said:

Hmm.

2024

2023

A lot of close games in 2023; a lot of Twins being blown-out in 2024, heck , who needs defense, all that does is keep the score close.

Who needs offense, when you SCORE MORE than the other team, all that does is win games.

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The problem with poor defense is that fly balls that any decent outfielders catch fall, some for extra bases and combined with all of the ground ball outs that manage to elude our infielders .... well, no pitcher can escape undamaged from that mess. An average defense with a good offense can be ok, but it is rare when an offense can overcome horrid defense.

Of course, some believe that the Twins defense is ok. I can't spend any time contradicting that thought. 

I know I date myself badly but I keep going back to those Twins, Dodgers, Orioles, and A's teams of the 60s and early 70s.

 

I never said a "horrid" defense.

In 1987 and 1991 when the Twins were World Series Champs the Twins committed 98 and 101 errors respectively. That's not great defense. In 2024 they committed 70 errors. (Only the Braves and Diamondbacks were better). So the 3rd best defense in the league didn't even make the playoffs. Those who think they have to have great defensive players to make a difference are totally wrong. This years numbers prove that. I know that errors are just one aspect of defense but the difference is quite significant and it shows you don't have to be defensive oriented to win ball games. Pitching and Hitting are important and looking at those numbers one could argue they are MORE important.

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The problem with poor defense is that fly balls that any decent outfielders catch fall, some for extra bases and combined with all of the ground ball outs that manage to elude our infielders .... well, no pitcher can escape undamaged from that mess. An average defense with a good offense can be ok, but it is rare when an offense can overcome horrid defense.

Of course, some believe that the Twins defense is ok. I can't spend any time contradicting that thought. 

I know I date myself badly but I keep going back to those Twins, Dodgers, Orioles, and A's teams of the 60s and early 70s.

 

Defense never slumps.  Defense travels.  And best of all, it is relatively cheap!

Bad defense will break your heart more often (and more achingly) than anything short of HORRIFIC pitching.

When you regularly man three positions with borderline butchers, results such as we just saw are not surprising, but to be expected. 

You can't cover truly bad defense (or pitching) with an average offense, or even a good one.  You need elite offense to cover being subpar in the field or on the mound.  The Twins are not elite offensively (last year we had zero elite hitters, and came nowhere near an elite offense), and unless you turn out a (healthy) Mike Trout about every two years, the Twins could never afford to keep such a lineup with veterans who have the option of seeing their free agent value.

Give me Steve Lombardozzi (and his glove) over a shockingly long list of currently rostered Twins!

How about an opening day outfield of Wallner, Buxton and Rodriquez?  Larnach is the Dh.  Kiersey is a late inning defensive replacement, pinch runner and spot starter.

I didn’t get to see much last year, but from what I heard and read, Martin and Castro should get their innings as infielders.

There is no doubt that missing Kepler in RF will be some kind of downgrade on defense.  But Max didn't even have 400 plate appearances last season.  That's barely above playing in 60% of the teams games.

Buxton is very similar.  When he's out there, the defense is elite.  But last year's 100 games played still represents 62.5% of the season.  It seems the Twins have been missing Buxton & Kepler defense for more than half their games since 2021.  

And this is why guys like Buxton and Kepler have been missing from any Gold Glove talk for several seasons.  You have to be on the field more than 62% of the time to merit consideration.  

I'm all for Kiersey finally getting a real shot at #4 outfielder.  He can play all three positions, he gives you excellent speed and he's got a little pop.  If he can hit hit just enough, he should have a roster spot.  But he's a LH hitter, and when your projected corner OF are both LH hitters that is an unbalanced roster.  

They kind of need a Rob Refsnyder kind of guy.  Capable OF who hits LHP.  Refsnyder is kind of light on power but he's competent.  

With Emmanuel Rodriguez looking like an All Star break callup and Walker Jenkins on the fast track, I could see a trade of Larnach that brings back an everyday type of RH hitting LF, kind of like Tyler O'Neill did for the Red Sox.  With the defense that a Joe Adell brings (Gold Glove consideration) if he could just hit a little he wouldn't be a bad guy to take a flyer on.  He wouldn't cost much.    

50 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I never said a "horrid" defense.

In 1987 and 1991 when the Twins were World Series Champs the Twins committed 98 and 101 errors respectively. That's not great defense. In 2024 they committed 70 errors. (Only the Braves and Diamondbacks were better). So the 3rd best defense in the league didn't even make the playoffs. Those who think they have to have great defensive players to make a difference are totally wrong. This years numbers prove that. I know that errors are just one aspect of defense but the difference is quite significant and it shows you don't have to be defensive oriented to win ball games. Pitching and Hitting are important and looking at those numbers one could argue they are MORE important.

Errors is one of the worst way to quantify defense.  For many reasons, but one is the "official" scorer makes that decision.  Others are fact that if a player has terrible range and cannot get to a ball, or in outfield specifically, makes a terrible read or route to a ball that does not show up as an error.  Heck, if a guy runs in on a ball then stops and runs back, or vice versa and the ball drops in because of that, it does not show up as an error. 

Some errors come from infield throws that they make a crazy good stop, then try to make the out, and a good throw gets them, but a bad throw led to extra base for runner, then there is an error, but a bad defender may not even get to the ball to try and make the throw. 

Sometimes a guy with a lot of errors actually are a good defender because they have crazy range that gets to balls most would not so they increase number of chances. Please, never use just errors for a reason of ranking defense. I mean if there is a pop up in the infield and all 4 just look at the ball and it falls, it is called a hit, because the fielder did not have an error in physical play, only in mental.  If you "cannot" make the play you cannot have an error, even if you not making the play is because you are that bad of a defender. 

Bring back Margot. His streak is still alive! Finish the story! 

14 hours ago, rv78 said:

If Larnach and Wallner can get and keep the bats going, you can live with a bit less on defense. Let's not forget the primary reason for the teams failure down the stretch was offense, not defense. It's one thing to be strong defensively, but if it hinders you offensively it isn't going to help enough to matter. 

The team currently has a big gaping hole at DH. Rather than filling that hole with whatever mediocre bat they can find in free agency I'd like to see them acquire someone who is good at fielding the ball and push one of their lesser defenders to DH.

With Larnach in left and Wallner in right, and Buxton probably only playing half a season, our defense will surely suffer. Castro can play left occasionally which will help and I'm guessing it will be Keirsey or Martin backing up Buck. Keirsey at least will help defensively too. In the long run guys like Jenkins, Rosario and Rodriguez will all help our defense in the OF as well as speed on the base paths, but none of these guys are ready yet. It'd be nice if we could sign a RH OF to platoon our lefties and be Buxton insurance, but with our payroll I highly doubt it.

This may be a case of addition by subtraction.  Keplers production can be matched by Wallner or Erod so our OF’s production could and probably will be better in ‘25 than in 24.  Not sure we will really go deep into a trade scenario involving one of our OF leaving.  Bringing in a veteran OF is a more likely option.

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

While Kepler's glove will be missed for sure, his defense did appear to slip some recently. Wallner will not be as good as Kepler, but that cannon he has will make up for missed opportunities in the field. Repetition, especially being the primary RF, will smooth some edges. He moves well when he gets going. And the offense makes up for some defense as well.

Personally, I think Larnach looks OK in LF, and has looked OK in RF previously. Not great, but solid. I think his arm is better than he's being credited with here. From what I've seen previously, I'd say it's average at worst, and probably slightly above.

Rodriguez isn't ready yet, but will hopefully be about July. I do think Keirsey is ready, at least for a role. He provides quality defense at all 3 spots, and provides a legitimate backup in CF to Buxton, which is needed. I don't want to see another Margot in CF. If Keirsey can hit at all...and his last 2 MILB seasons indicate he has ability, he deserves a serious shot to be that defensive replacement/depth option and speed on the basepaths, which is something the Twins are lacking. If he could hit even .230-.240 with some pop, speed, defense, and not K like crazy, I'd put him on the roster if he shows well in ST.

I understand Martin was a rookie with only half a AAA season coming in to 2024. There's lots of room to grow. And he needs to. We kept hearing how he was a natural OF, but he looked completely lost at times. There's little pop/power in his bat so far, and last I checked, he actually hit better against RH pitching than he did LH pitching. Which isn't awful considering 75% of all pitchers are RH. But he didn't hit well regardless. 

That means the Twins still need a RH bat for the OF, even if or maybe even more if Keirsey can fill a role on the 2025 team. I've said it before, but will say it again, IF Kiersey could do this, it's great. (Rodriguez eventually replaces him more than likely). But SOMEHOW the Twins need to come up with a RH corner OF who doesn't stink against RH pitching. Any RH role playing OF WILL end up playing more than JUST as a LHP smashers. So whoever they can find needs to be able to at least hold his own against RHP instead of being an embarrassment at the plate.

Seriously, right now, I'd trust journeyman Helman more than Martin from internal options. So a SOMEONE who can be that RH bat feels pretty important to me. Maybe a younger bat languishing on someone's bench for a pitching prospect?

The OF defense will go down at least somewhat with Kepler gone. But the offense will also make up for some of that. 

I like Martin, but he is a utility player, at best.  And Castro needs to focus on 2, maybe 3 positions at most for next year to improve his defensive consistency.  I think Keirsey and Rodgriguez are the best bets to complete the outfield as 4th and/or 5th outfield options.  Larnach in left and Wallner in right seem like solid choices.

The Red Sox need SP.  The Twins could use a young (25 y/o) inexpensive OF with speed, Gold Glove consideration and some pop (.781 OPS).  How about SWR for Wilyer Abreu??  The only negative to Abreu is that he bats LH.  So the Twins would still need to find a RH complement.  But Abreu is a finalist for a Gold Glove and can play all 3 OF positions.  

The Twins have 3 young pitchers who got a taste of the major leagues this past season in Festa, SWR and Matthews.  Having all three in the rotation is sub optimal when there are some big holes to fill at specific positions.  I would advocate it's time to sell high on a trade.

Better yet, why not shoot higher and offer SWR and Miranda for Tristin Casas.  Casas was pretty good as a rookie in 2023 but slumped some due to nagging injuries in 2024.  Miranda could play 1B or even 3B for the Red Sox if they traded us Casas and decided to move Rafael Devers to 1B.  Miranda could be a good bat in Fenway Park.  The Twins get a 24 year old, LH power hitter to be there 1B for the next 10 years.  

I'm not sure if a deal like this is even reasonable on BBTV (I refuse to pay for it).  Maybe someone could check on this proposal to see if it has any merit, but I do think the Twins need to pick one of those young SP's and leverage them in a trade.  

Careful.  If you make it sound like you think the Twins might in any way miss Kepler a whole lot of folks on this site are gonna have their heads fall off.  Hope you're ready to be the reason for that.

Good points bean.  In a "normal" world of baseball ownership, the Twins would look at the situation the Red Sox were in and immediately make a solid offer to someone like Tyler O'Neill.  O'Neill would become the instant starter in LF providing power and speed to the lineup.  In a pinch, O'Neill could play CF.  He did with the Cardinals, but there was no need for him to do that with the Red Sox with Duran, Ceddane Rafaela and Abreu available.