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  • Edouard Julien Has a Blueprint to Work On


    Edouard Julien made his Major League debut earlier for the Minnesota Twins in 2023, and since, it’s been somewhat of an uneven ride. That’s not unexpected with a young player, but the same blueprint he’s been working towards is what he’ll need to fix if he wants to stick.

     

    Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

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    Rocco Baldelli has been able to pull from a talented system as the Twins have dealt with injuries early in 2023. As Jorge Polanco hit the injured list most recently, it was Edouard Julien who was promoted to take his place. Working regularly at second base for Triple-A St. Paul, it’s not a surprising fit at all. Just how good he can be there determines how long the leash is.

    Across his first 16 games for Minnesota, Julien has played second base exclusively. There’s an avenue in which he ultimately becomes a first baseman (or worse, a designated hitter), but those opportunities are currently earmarked for Joey Gallo, Alex Kirilloff, and Donovan Solano. The greatest knock on Julien has always been his defense or lack thereof, and we’ve seen that plenty to start.

    It’s very early with a sample size of just 104 innings, but Julien has already amassed a -3 DRS (defensive runs saved) while posting an equal -3 OAA (outs above average). It’s clear that his arm can play at the less demanding spot, but his range and hands are not at all impressive. Booting a rather routine grounder on Sunday (the ball had just a .100 expected batting average) inexplicably saw Pablo Lopez credited with two earned runs rather than Julien picking up an error. (Julien made a sliding play to field the ball, but as he got up and tried to transfer the ball from glove to hand, the ball dropped.)

    In the batter’s box is where Julien has quickly become a prized prospect, and it’s far too soon to knock him for 72 plate appearances of production, but the Twins want to see his Triple-A game come with. You can put up with shoddy defensive work at times if a guy is going to be an asset at the plate. Not only does Julien have the ability to hit for power similar to Brian Dozier before him, but he draws a massive amount of walks. 

    For much of his minor league career, Julien has taken his base nearly one-fifth of the time that he steps in. With a strikeout rate just north of that at 25%, he has an exceptional approach at the plate. That has not yet translated to the highest level as Julien looks to settle in against big-league pitching. He’s walking only around 10% of the time while heading back to the dugout after a strikeout 34.5% of the time.

    A recipe that includes being a bad defender and an undisciplined hitter isn’t going to afford Julien a long leash. Fortunately for him, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and as he finds comfort and continuity there should be an expectation of things normalizing. Polanco’s injury should not be one that keeps him out for an extended period of time, so Julien will head back across town, but he has the book of things to work on.

    Next time the Twins need to call on their Canadian prospect, they’ll want to see a bit more refined ability in the field. The defense is something that will continue to be a work in progress, and likely something that will only improve slightly with an extended runway needed. In the box, he has already shown the type of hitter he is, and finding comfort against Major League talent will help to bring his calling card to the highest level.

    So far we have seen a bit of everything that has been presented about Julien’s game. The power is legit. He looks like a real player. The warts are also ugliest in the field, and we saw that again on Wednesday night against the Astros. He’s not a perfect talent by any means, but it would stand to reason that Baldelli has someone he can be confident in contributing more as the 2023 season goes on.

    A few weeks ago the Twins arguably gave Julien a similar blueprint when he was sent back to Triple-A. Cody Christie looked at it then, and seeing how the development has taken place over the past couple of weeks is certainly worth checking in on.

    It’s a big year for the second base prospect as Polanco is coming to the end of his deal, and the assumption would be that Julien can push to start next year on Opening Day. We’re a ways from that reality coming to fruition, but how he evolves the rest of the season can go a long way toward making everyone involved feel more comfortable with the possibility.

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    5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    He might have been able to handle 2B before they changed the shifting rules. Now I think he's a 1B/DH. The Twins have too many DH on their roster.

    Twins current issue is a ton of young hitters who either haven’t hit consistently or haven’t been healthy consistently. Most of that crop would fit best at first base or DH as wel. Since nobody has been consistent they can’t trade anyone so they have to ride it out and hope some of these guys come through. 
    The other problem lies with the all world defender and platinum glove winner at DH exclusively 

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    I don't think Julien has been undisciplined in the majors.  He's had a pretty good eye with two strikes.

    It seems they've been trying to have him swing at strikes more aggressively early in the count, and he had some success with the approach at first, though lately it seems that either he's just a bit off or he's gotten more quality strikes that just haven't been as hittable.  He hasn't really gotten himself into hitters counts too often, which speaks to how he's been pitched and the reason they've wanted him to be more aggressive.  It'll have to be a balance of attacking early so pitchers aren't able to go right after him as much but making sure that the pitches he attacks are ones he can actually do something with.

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    Julien may be a prime candidate for the Twins to flip in a trade.   The bat and walks will entice someone for a young prospect and I think he is more expendable then the others at this time.   Miranda may turn into a 1B/3B option but needs work as well, or trade.   One of the two may end up being a centerpiece to a deadline deal.

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    I was neither encouraged or discouraged by Julien’s play for his stay with the major league team. His bat will play and if his bat plays enough, we’ll accept his defense. 
     

    The story to watch is whether the Twins will pick up the option on Jorge Polanco’s contract. Polanco is and continues to be a good player, but he seems to be an old 29 year old, with injuries clouding the future. I don’t think his defense is good, even at second and he seems more and more pull-happy and strikeout-prone. If Julien can provide the team with as much offense and something approximating sufficient defense, the Twins might want to part company, perhaps a year early, rather than a year too late. 

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    6 minutes ago, mickster said:

    Julien may be a prime candidate for the Twins to flip in a trade.   The bat and walks will entice someone for a young prospect and I think he is more expendable then the others at this time.   Miranda may turn into a 1B/3B option but needs work as well, or trade.   One of the two may end up being a centerpiece to a deadline deal.

    A deadline deal for what though? The only easy place to upgrade is in CF and the bullpen. I hope they don't send Julien out for a reliever.

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    Julien looks like the classic guy who could be an asset in another year or two but isn't quite ready now. The difference between a quality AAA player and a quality MLB player is in the details and consistency. That's where he has his issues. He is inconsistent in the field, inconsistent at the plate, and needs a lot more refinement on defense. I think the bottom line is he just isn't quite ready yet and is probably more of a 2024 consideration in the 2023 asset although it is nice to have someone like that for depth. I do think he can be a quality major-league player at second base so I don't think we should move him to 1B or make him the centerpiece of a trade. Instead, have him continue to really focus on defense at AAA.

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    19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    A deadline deal for what though? The only easy place to upgrade is in CF and the bullpen. I hope they don't send Julien out for a reliever.

    I don't want him to go for a rental - however we don't know the state of the SP at that time and if they could get someone under contract to help the rotation that would be good.   Gray is a FA and will test the market.  Mahle is as well, but TJ will take away most of his year.    Rotation for 2024 is Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Varland, Paddock w/Winder, SWR and others in the wings so not bad.   I am hoping a 3 year extension for Sony is offered and thus we can be stingy with a trade.    A CF under contract would be the best fit though.    With Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Martin, Julien looking to come up that makes a logjam.   Polanco becomes the other chip, and has been injured a bit, but he provides such a spark and makes a difference in our lineup I would like him signed.   Unless Lewis or Martin can be an everyday CF, and I am doubting Lewis is going there.   Something will have to give at some point.

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    Wow, some fellow TDers giving up on Julien already. 

    For those he say he’s limited to 1B or DH, should we exit Julien or Gallo?  Honestly, for the Twins future, who is move valuable and deserves investment?  Also, with 300-500 more ML ABs and the ability to play in the field every day if needed (and btw way cheaper), could he be more valuable than our current DH? 

    I wonder if Julien wouldn’t actually love a change of scenery. Get a chance where he will get the innings and ABs and the commitment needed to get his confidence back.  Ala Steer and Rooker and others. Miranda and Larnach are probably thinking the same thing. Maybe Wallner too.

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    7 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    Wow, some fellow TDers giving up on Julien already. 

    For those he say he’s limited to 1B or DH, should we exit Julien or Gallo?  Honestly, for the Twins future, who is move valuable and deserves investment?  Also, with 300-500 more ML ABs and the ability to play in the field every day if needed (and btw way cheaper), could he be more valuable than our current DH? 

    I wonder if Julien wouldn’t actually love a change of scenery. Get a chance where he will get the innings and ABs and the commitment needed to get his confidence back.  Ala Steer and Rooker and others. Miranda and Larnach are probably thinking the same thing. Maybe Wallner too.

    Not giving up on Julien, just looking at options.   I would take him over Gallo, based on age.   I was not a fan of the Gallo signing, but he does play top tier defense and gives pop.  Rooker will fade after the hot start most likley, hope not but water eventually finds it's level.   Miranda and Larnach are disappointments yes, and new scenery may help.    Wallner will be here soon as I think Keplers leash is out to run out.   

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    9 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    Wow, some fellow TDers giving up on Julien already. 

    For those he say he’s limited to 1B or DH, should we exit Julien or Gallo?  Honestly, for the Twins future, who is move valuable and deserves investment?  Also, with 300-500 more ML ABs and the ability to play in the field every day if needed (and btw way cheaper), could he be more valuable than our current DH? 

    I wonder if Julien wouldn’t actually love a change of scenery. Get a chance where he will get the innings and ABs and the commitment needed to get his confidence back.  Ala Steer and Rooker and others. Miranda and Larnach are probably thinking the same thing. Maybe Wallner too.

    I haven't seen any posts "giving up on Julien already."

    Not clear on the Gallo comp in the 1B or DH conversation since Gallo is a cOFer who just filled in at 1B until Kirilloff was back, and when Gallo's hammy was tight. "Ability to play in the field" is part of the discussion because he may have the ability to stand out there, but he doesn't have the ability to field well. Being in the field, but fielding poorly, isn't an asset.

    Come on. This "love a change of scenery" argument is so extreme. Are the Twins the only team who use options to move guys to AAA? Did St Louis not send their #1 prospect, and according to some people the #1 prospect in all of baseball, down to AAA after he started the year with them? Would Jordan Walker "love a change of scenery" because of that? The team giving Steer a chance are sitting on another top 5 global prospect who's absolutely lighting the minors on fire right now, should Elly De La Cruz be demanding a trade? Go look at Brent Rooker's numbers for May. Actually, I'll just give them to you. 2 homeruns, .198/.290/.327/.616 quad-slash. He could probably use a trip to AAA. Welcome to the world of professional baseball. It's really hard to make a major league roster, and even harder to stay on one.

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    44 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    The story to watch is whether the Twins will pick up the option on Jorge Polanco’s contract. Polanco is and continues to be a good player, but he seems to be an old 29 year old, with injuries clouding the future. I don’t think his defense is good, even at second and he seems more and more pull-happy and strikeout-prone. If Julien can provide the team with as much offense and something approximating sufficient defense, the Twins might want to part company, perhaps a year early, rather than a year too late. 

    For a healthy Polanco it's a no brainer.  If he's stays relatively healthy and productive the rest of the season they could still easily pick up the option and flip him for something of value if they decide to go a different direction at 2B.  He has another similar option for 2025 so it's still essentially two years of team control at a reasonable price.  For the time being Polanco is still the better option on both sides of the ball though.

    Probably the hardest decision is if he's only mostly healthy and that limits his productivity, which is certainly a possibility the way the last few years have gone for him.

    I don't see Julien getting a whole lot better on defense that quickly, so if he is the starting 2B next year they will probably need a high defensive floor platoon partner for him, and maybe they already have it with Willi Castro fitting that role and playing better defense than he ever has prior to this year.  It's hard to see Julien as a building block 2B long term though.  He'll probably be a good bat 2B/1B/DH with someone else covering the defense at 2B more often than not.

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    Tough call on Julien.....as his defense isn't just "ok", it's actually bad. I remain convinced his bat will play, the question is where?

    Also, I can't see them extending Polanco. Not with Lee, Lewis, Julien, Martin (if ever healthy), Salas, et. al........If Polanco was healthy? Maybe. But, he hasn't been that for some time.

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    12 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

    For a healthy Polanco it's a no brainer.  If he's stays relatively healthy and productive the rest of the season they could still easily pick up the option and flip him for something of value if they decide to go a different direction at 2B.  He has another similar option for 2025 so it's still essentially two years of team control at a reasonable price.  For the time being Polanco is still the better option on both sides of the ball though.

    Probably the hardest decision is if he's only mostly healthy and that limits his productivity, which is certainly a possibility the way the last few years have gone for him.

    I don't see Julien getting a whole lot better on defense that quickly, so if he is the starting 2B next year they will probably need a high defensive floor platoon partner for him, and maybe they already have it with Willi Castro fitting that role and playing better defense than he ever has prior to this year.  It's hard to see Julien as a building block 2B long term though.  He'll probably be a good bat 2B/1B/DH with someone else covering the defense at 2B more often than not.

    Would it be odd to pick up Polanco's option only to trade him? I was also going to mention Brian Dozier for comparison. Dozier relied more and more on pulling home runs for his production and diminished rather quickly. I fear the same for Polanco and again think it is better to trade a veteran a year early than a year late. To me, this will be an off season decision and back to the OP, Julien's progress will be a large factor. 

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    27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    2 homeruns, .198/.290/.327/.616 quad-slash

    He’d fit right in on the Twins.

    Seriously, my only point is that these touted prospects of ours need the ABs, innings and investment/commitment. They seem to  be on the way, then moved back and forth, and lose their momentum. Vet signings with high priced commitments don’t help either.  Some of them would likely be very happy if another team gave them a committed shot and were willing to make the investment.  

    It’s only my opinion, of course, but I do not believe developing young talent, particularly position players, to their full potential is a strong point of our current regime. And for a small/mid -market team, it really should be a priority.  Here’s hoping that Kiriloff and Lewis (plus Lee and Rodriguez) can reach their true potential and can get beyond what our last “young core” of Kepler, Sano, and even Buxton reached. At the moment, it appears Miranda, Larnach, and Julien (and Martin too), are struggling to reach their ultimate potential within this organization.
     

     

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    His defense isn’t deficient it’s borderline horrible. No arm no hands and no range. He will hit but probably not enough to be a full time dh. 

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    4 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    He’d fit right in on the Twins.

    Seriously, my only point is that these touted prospects of ours need the ABs, innings and investment/commitment. They seem to  be on the way, then moved back and forth, and lose their momentum. Vet signings with high priced commitments don’t help either.  Some of them would likely be very happy if another team gave them a committed shot and were willing to make the investment.  

    It’s only my opinion, of course, but I do not believe developing young talent, particularly position players, to their full potential is a strong point of our current regime. And for a small/mid -market team, it really should be a priority.  Here’s hoping that Kiriloff and Lewis (plus Lee and Rodriguez) can reach their true potential and can get beyond what our last “young core” of Kepler, Sano, and even Buxton reached. At the moment, it appears Miranda, Larnach, and Julien (and Martin too), are struggling to reach their ultimate potential within this organization.
     

     

    That's simply not how things work, though. That's the point. This is how every team operates. Young guys get bounced back and forth all the time. Mike Trout was sent back to AAA even. This is a frequent occurrence. It's not the Twins doing something crazy. If the nationally touted prospects are getting sent back to AAA don't you think it's pretty reasonable that the guys in the Twins system who aren't actually that big of prospects are having the same thing happen?

    What's the hit rate for other organizations? What's our frame of reference for the Twins being successful in developing players? How many players for other teams "reach their ultimate potential?" I think part of the problem is our expectations. Julien is a nice enough prospect, but he's not supposed to be some star or anything. The Twins have drafted and developed more guys who make the majors than the average team under this regime. They've failed to produce stars. I'm also hoping Kirilloff and Lewis are those guys. The early reviews are quite positive. Ryan Jeffers is doing awfully well right now. Only 66% of 1st round picks ever even make the majors. I don't think the Twins are great by any means, but they're not terrible. They're just average. Which shows in their record most the time. They're able to produce MLB talent, just not above average MLB talent. Let's hope Kirilloff, Lewis, Lee, Rodriguez, and the #5 pick can produce a couple stars.

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    30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I don't think the Twins are great by any means, but they're not terrible. They're just average

    As always, you make excellent points. Your positions are always well constructed and reasonable. Also much appreciated.

    But this point above is where we clearly have a difference. “Average” player development is not an acceptable outcome for a small/mid-market team that expects to win and be competitive year-in and year-out.  A big market team can “buy” their way out of poor player development. The Twins cannot. Our only saving grace is the division in which we play. 

    If the Twins truly want to create any sort of defensible competitive advantage as a Major League Baseball franchise and truly field a consistently winning team capable of vying for a World Series, they must be well above average, if not clearly superior, in prospect development. The current organization, as you rightly point out, is  most definitely not.  

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    8 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

    As always, you make excellent points. Your positions are always well constructed and reasonable. Also much appreciated.

    But this point above is where we clearly have a difference. “Average” player development is not an acceptable outcome for a small/mid-market team that expects to win and be competitive year-in and year-out.  A big market team can “buy” their way out of poor player development. The Twins cannot. Our only saving grace is the division in which we play. 

    If the Twins truly want to create any sort of defensible competitive advantage as a Major League Baseball franchise and truly field a consistently winning team capable of vying for a World Series, they must be well above average, if not clearly superior, in prospect development. The current organization, as you rightly point out, is  most definitely not.  

    We don't disagree there. I didn't say average was acceptable, or we should be ok with it, or anything like that. Just that they're not some horrid FO by any means. I'm quite neutral on the FO, manager, etc. as I compare them to the rest of the league and see that there's much worse we can do, but also much better. My general approach to this stuff is to take risks for greatness, but I understand that in taking those risks you can also end up with way worse than we have.

    Some of us were having a similar chat in one of the draft prospects threads the other day. I say take the highest ceiling player at #5 instead of the "safe" guy with a higher floor. You need stars to win. Take the potential hall of famer who may never make the majors over the guy who's much more likely to reach the majors, but maxes out as a 1 time all star in his career year. I wouldn't be upset if they cleared house after this season if we don't see a couple stars developing in Kirilloff and Lewis that produces some postseason results. But I also wouldn't be upset if they don't clear house because they're on the cusp of being really good, and there's a long ways down from our current standing in Major League Baseball.

    It's really all about the risks you're willing to take to improve. I just like to show fans who call for heads to roll that there's definitely room to go down from where we are. Certainly still understand the desire for more, though.

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    There is a lot to like with Julien in his first taste of the bigs. It appears many of his issues could be helped by getting more comfortable. The talent and drive are there, just settle down a little.

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    His defense isn't sub-par.  Its actively bad.  Eye-test, metrics, optics any measurement you want to use.  Actively bad.

    The truest indictment of the defense is how the manager uses him.  After passing on using any of the three break glass in  case of emergency players last night in obvious situations to platoon for Gallo at DH, Rocco used a tender footed Correa on his day off as a defensive replacement in an 8-2 game.  We all know ho much it must have pained Rocco to see left on left crime in the batters box but to realize Juliens defense pained him more? 

    Days off for the superstars are sacred in these parts and Julien can't be trusted with a 6 run lead.  Tells us everything we need to know about his future at 2nd base.  His arm is stretched at 2nd too, by the way, the double play throws need zip he doesn't have.

    Organizationally, long term he is a trade chip.  A very good one but I wouldn't wait too long as more holes will be exposed. This is an enormous success story though.  As an 18th round pick (for now obvious reasons) we have a good chance to see 2nd or 3rd round value returned.  Score.

    As we are seeing the ability of this front office to find and develop AAAA hitters we are going to be flipping a lot of them.  The hitters sent away have all been questionable gloves and I expect that trend to continue with Julien, Miranda, Wallner etc. no matter how good they hit.

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    It was obviuos that Martin wouldn't stick at SS, yet the Twins were determined to keep him there although Martin had a better avenue to the majors via OF & some 2B. They need keep Lewis in the INF so they should have gave him some time at 2B. Julien won't stick at 2B yet they keep him there, Kiriloff can play some OF so Julien best shot is 1B, so that's where they should play him.

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    1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

    It was obviuos that Martin wouldn't stick at SS, yet the Twins were determined to keep him there although Martin had a better avenue to the majors via OF & some 2B. They need keep Lewis in the INF so they should have gave him some time at 2B. Julien won't stick at 2B yet they keep him there, Kiriloff can play some OF so Julien best shot is 1B, so that's where they should play him.

    No idea why Lewis had to be in the infield. I don't get the handling of Martin at all. I'd guess Lewis at third or CF, Lee at third or second, Severino at third or second, Miranda at third or first..... Julien at first or DH. 

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    I think Julien is MLB ready, He can take 2 aggressive swings and move an 0-2 count to 3-2. That is a valuable skill and the blueprint to his success. He actually made a great catch the other night robbing the Astros of a double. AAA may help him improve but he looks to be MLB ready now.

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    It is unlikely he stays at 2nd base if he sticks with the team.  I expect Lewis, Lee, and Correa to make up some combo of 3rd ss and 2nd primary positions for hopefully years to come.  Unless one of them get moved to OF.  If not, they should hopefully get the majority of the time in those spots.  This is also why you cannot always count on guys coming up and being MLB level guys. 

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    5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Miranda at third or first..... Julien at first or DH. 

    The best position young position player the Twins have in their system is a first baseman, Alex Kirilloff. He is good defensively and is a guy who can hit now and should improve. I'm afraid first base is the most certain positive the team has and that leaves those who want to play first base on the outside.

    Julien can still hit his way to a regular spot but the Twins better hope Polanco holds the position because he is really good and it would be a shame if Jorge fails.

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