Did the Twins Win or Lose the 2025 Trade Deadline? Looking Back with Fresh Eyes

True case of have to wait and see how it works out in the end.    But from the deadline through at least 2027 it is a big L.   Had they pivoted and added, I think a contender was at hand.   Detroit faltered down the stretch and left the door open.   Even if they would have kept 2 of the 3 arms of Jax, Duran and Varland it would have been more tolerable for fans.    Bader and Castro were goners and they did well with the return there.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

If we're doing an evaluation today, instead of say last August, I don't know how anyone can claim the Twins won.

I'm fine pinning a big TBD on the fire sale, but just about every one of the players the Twins got back face planted at whatever level they were placed at. Henry Mendez looks like he continued his trajectory, but doesn't just about everyone else look worse now than they did when the Twins acquired them?

Tait and Abel still look good. Enrique Jimenez looked better with the Twins.

What was the goal? Money? Talent?

Duran, Jax, Varland, and Coulombe are all relievers that fit comfortably on any playoff team. Coulombe was on an expiring contract. The return was 1 solid prospect (Tait) with questions about his defensive skills, a couple of good arms (Bradley, Abel) that the Twins think they can straighten out. The remainder were players with some talent (Rojas, Roden) or players who may or may not ever make an MLB roster.

Correa traded left the Twins with more money but without a shortstop. I'm not sure the Twins acquired anyone of note otherwise. The strategy seemed to focus on quantity over quality. The 3 best relievers are gone as well as the shortstop. The biggest gain was the money saved from Correa's contract ($20M a year). I'm not sure that helps the team.

To be fair it is necessary to wait several years before any real determination is made. 

You have to look at it more than just the prospects received. Its partially the money saved, but the real "wild card" here is the improved draft capital.   At the all star break we had the 13th or 14th best record.   We now have high odds of getting a top 5 pick and 60% odds of a top 3 pick.   I still stand by trading all the relievers was to tank for better draft picks in a really good draft.  This has to be part of the equation. 

Pitching -  Abel, Bradley, Rojas, Gallagher (assets received currently in top 30 prospects)

Hitters - Tait, Mendez, Jimenez, Roden 

We win on the Castro,  Bader, Paddack and Coloumbe trades.  We traded less than 1/2 a season of control for Horn, Gallagher, Armstrong, Jimenez and Mendez.   I have high expectations for both Mendez and Jimenez.  

Stewart for Outman.  Trading an injured pitcher for an outfielder than can't hit.  Likely not a needle mover in either direction just looks really bad.   

Jax for Bradley.   I do this trade everyday of the week.  Trade 2 1/2 years of a volatile reliever for 3 1/2 of a younger highly volatile SP.  Both with question marks on attitude and willing to work in a team environment.   Bradley say what you will showed he was willing to be a professional with the Twins and try new things and his last start he looked really really good.  

Varland for Roden and Rojas -  I just don't know.    Varland ERA was high - but he was the Blue Jays most used arm out of the bullpen in the playoffs.  On paper Roden and Rojas is an overpay for Varland,  to me even taking the emotional arguments out of it,  I think we lose this trade.  I think Varland is either the setup man or closer for the Blue Jays for a long time.  Roden either needs to become an above average outfielder or Rojas needs to become a closer or high end pitcher.  

Duran for Abel and Tait.  I do this trade every day.   I think Abel will be a very very good pitcher for us.  His last start he had complete command of his arsenal.  I think he was tipping pitches unintentionally.   If you can control that he should be good in my opinion.  Of the pitchers I think he is the best one of the group and will be a solid #2 for us down the road.  Tait is full of potential but is still potential at this point.  

Trading Correa was just a salary dump.  Honestly I think that trade is just fine.   

Unless you think we could win the WS this year or next year - that is the only real valuation where we lose on these trade deals.  We appeared to be a broken team at the end of the season and the only 2 players who really performed for their teams were Duran and Varland.   

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Trades always have a context. And I don't think it's that helpful to use how someone did for another team as the reference point. Their usage elsewhere can be different than what it would have been in Minnesota. Take it to extremes -- say Duran, Jax and Varland all turn into closers with their new team. That wasn't going to happen in Minnesota. 

With that in mind, I view the trade deadline as: 

• Correa, Duran, Dobnak, Jax and Varland (assuming that all the FAs were gone at year-end).

                                                                                  for

• Mikulski, Mendez (No. 25 in Twins system), Valloria, Tait (3), Abel (MLB), Jimenez, Gallagher (14), Armstrong, Horn, Bradley (MLB), Outman (MLB), Rojas (5), Roden (MLB) and $70M over three years (plus a projected $13M saved on Duran/Jax/Varland/Dobnak).

---------

At this point, it's hard to argue it as a win for the Twins. The effect on this year's roster is that they lost their top three relievers and the starting shortstop for no one who's really guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster (and only Abel, Bradley, Outman and Roden realistically have a shot). There's also no inclination on how this year's $36M savings on Correa/Duran/Jax/Varland/Dobnak will be spent.

BUT, it has the potential to be a huge win for the Twins if they use the money savings well and even a few of these guys pan out.

Interesting way to look at it.  
 

Here’s another interesting approach:  if we had made all of these trades minus one—the Varland trade—would we be more likely to declare the deadline fire sale as a WIN?  
 

I maintain that the Varland trade was both misguided and unnecessary. The return does not match the upside of Varland. At the high end, he could become the next Joe Ryan in the Twins system. At the low end he’s a #3 in the rotation.  
 

I think we could have done better trading the immensely unhappy Ryan for a massive haul.  

https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/taj-bradley-s-nine-strikeouts-x4204

If we get a lot more performances from these 2 like their last 2 starts - this deadline will be considered a win.  

OKOverall grade on the trades is a D- because not much major league ready prospects to help in 2025 to finish the season  ...

Roden got injured and Outman showed very little on a consistent basis , Abel had one good start so there is that , Bradley was Bradley , a move to bullpen makes sense  ...

Correa strictly a salary dump and it cost the team 33 million to do it ...

Mendez for Bader is just a prospect maybe a year away  , maybe less from making his debut  and a lottery ticket ...

Duran for Abel a starting pitching prospect that has high upside and a prospect catcher that is a few years away ...

Paddack and dobnak  , salary relief and a prospect catcher in return  ...

Castro for 2 minor pitchers  , can always use pitchers but there also a few years away  ...

Columbe for horn , lefty starter and everyone needs lefty starters ...

Jax for Bradley  , coukd be a good return as I see him replacing Jax in the bullpen  ...

Stewart for Outman never made sense , outfielders we don't need , arms we do ..

Varland for Roden and a high prospect of Rojas  , but Roden an outfielder isn't really needed and he hasn't shown anything in 110 major league at bats ...

Did we win , in my opinion trading our quality arms for prospects that were not quite major league ready wasn't the return that I would expect  ...

Teams are desperate to add quality arms and they seem to overpay  , but I did not see falvey getting any teams to over pay  ...

Time will tell , just hope we give all these prospects a chance instead of hoarding them ...

Twins got smoked in trades overall!  Period!  Half those won't even be with organization in 2 years, let alone a full year next year!!!!!!!

9 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

and the only 2 players who really performed for their teams were Duran and Varland.   

Yet again this site refuses to give my boy Harrison Bader proper credit. SMDH

13 minutes ago, JADBP said:

I maintain that the Varland trade was both misguided and unnecessary. The return does not match the upside of Varland. At the high end, he could become the next Joe Ryan in the Twins system. At the low end he’s a #3 in the rotation.  

I must not understand what you're saying. The upside of Louis Varland is essentially what Varland was last year, just in higher leverage. So, I'm guessing you mean that Rojas's upside is Joe Ryan? I think the low end he's still a potential full on bust. But I still think that's a pretty fair trade for a 3rd tier reliever. 

In two years we might look back with annoyance, but trading away a reliever, ie a failed starter, is never really going to kill a team down the road. 

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Yet again this site refuses to give my boy Harrison Bader proper credit. SMDH

I must not understand what you're saying. The upside of Louis Varland is essentially what Varland was last year, just in higher leverage. So, I'm guessing you mean that Rojas's upside is Joe Ryan? I think the low end he's still a potential full on bust. But I still think that's a pretty fair trade for a 3rd tier reliever. 

In two years we might look back with annoyance, but trading away a reliever, ie a failed starter, is never really going to kill a team down the road. 

Ok Bader LOL.   Yes he was solid.  

Varland is really questionable how Toronto wants to use him.  Will they move him back to a starter.  Or will they use him as a high leverage reliever.   My concern on the varland trade is right now I don't think Rojas or Roden will pay off.   Maybe they prove me wrong,  but based on the way Varland was used in the playoffs - he can be a high leverage, high use arm.   That has a lot of value in my book especially when you have 5 years of control.  Lets say its 5 years of being a closer, what do we need from Roden or Rojas to equal that.  

15 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Interesting way to look at it.  
 

Here’s another interesting approach:  if we had made all of these trades minus one—the Varland trade—would we be more likely to declare the deadline fire sale as a WIN?  
 

I maintain that the Varland trade was both misguided and unnecessary. The return does not match the upside of Varland. At the high end, he could become the next Joe Ryan in the Twins system. At the low end he’s a #3 in the rotation.  
 

I think we could have done better trading the immensely unhappy Ryan for a massive haul.  

Varland is firmly entrenched as a HR-prone reliever now. His ERA was 4.94 to finish the season with Toronto, so he did not perform well. Despite setting a record for appearances in the play-offs, he gave up 4 HR in 16 IP and had an ERA of 3.94, not bad but not elite.

What makes you think Ryan is immensely unhappy? He was upset the team didn't re-sign Gray, but other than that I didn't see anything stating he was unhappy.

2 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Ok Bader LOL.   Yes he was solid.  

Varland is really questionable how Toronto wants to use him.  Will they move him back to a starter.  Or will they use him as a high leverage reliever.   My concern on the varland trade is right now I don't think Rojas or Roden will pay off.   Maybe they prove me wrong,  but based on the way Varland was used in the playoffs - he can be a high leverage, high use arm.   That has a lot of value in my book especially when you have 5 years of control.  Lets say its 5 years of being a closer, what do we need from Roden or Rojas to equal that.  

It's ironic since I'm one that heavily advocated for Jax to get another attempt in the rotation, but I just don't think Varland is good enough to be a SP. He's inferior to Jax in every way, both as a prospect and a reliever. And Jax actually took big steps forward after going to Driveline. Varland hasn't really improved, just able to better utilize his skills in short stints. 

I agree, a reliever you can reliably beat up on is valuable. But I'd rather have the potential SP ace, especially in the middle of a rebuild, fully aware that prospect might fizzle out completely and offer negative value. 

8 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

It's ironic since I'm one that heavily advocated for Jax to get another attempt in the rotation, but I just don't think Varland is good enough to be a SP. He's inferior to Jax in every way, both as a prospect and a reliever. And Jax actually took big steps forward after going to Driveline. Varland hasn't really improved, just able to better utilize his skills in short stints. 

I agree, a reliever you can reliably beat up on is valuable. But I'd rather have the potential SP ace, especially in the middle of a rebuild, fully aware that prospect might fizzle out completely and offer negative value. 

Do you think we got an ace in Rojas,  because Roden effectively has 1 more season to learn how to hit at the mlb level or he will be considered a AAAA player and his value of 10-12 effectively evaporates. Rojas has talent but can he harness it.     

Yes we see things differently as I think Jax is a headcase in my opinion.  Yes his stuff is amazing but he has never been able to put it all together.  To me it sounds like Bradley put zero effort into being a major leaguer with Tampa Bay.   In my opinion he should become best friends with SWR.  Learn to maximize the stuff you have and put in the hours of homework to become a really good pitcher.  If he puts the effort in I think he is a #2 pitcher.   

8 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Do you think we got an ace in Rojas,  because Roden effectively has 1 more season to learn how to hit at the mlb level or he will be considered a AAAA player and his value of 10-12 effectively evaporates. Rojas has talent but can he harness it.     

Maybe! It's way too early. But he's going to be a 23 year old in AA/AAA with great results in A+ and AA.

As for Roden, I still think he's got a decent chance at a respectable 5 WAR career, like a Lew Ford type. I obviously wish he would have shown something in his 100 at bats, but it's 100 at bats and the AAA results show some translatable skills. I'm still higher on Roden than I am Martin, but that's not saying a lot.

12 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Yes his stuff is amazing but he has never been able to put it all together.

As a starter, yes. But Jax was better in 2024 than Varland ever will be. I don't know why so many refused to recognize how good Jax was as a reliever or overrate the effectiveness of Varland. But, we also know people here hated Duran anytime he showed a single sign of mortality, so it's just the nature of being a passionate fan. 

But this is also why I'm so confused about the outrage over Varland, a good but not great reliever being traded for prospects. He's on the same level as a Phil Maton, someone that just signed a decent contract, but that contract was 2 years for $15 Million.

There are a dozen Varlands available every offseason, and another dozen at the trade deadline. 

The trading deadline was looked at one trade at a time in this article.  But they should be viewed collectively. And collectively, it was a disaster.  It hurt the fans and their hopes, it hurt attendance going forward, and it hurt any chance that a free agent might want to come to Minnesota to play.

19 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

To me it sounds like Bradley put zero effort into being a major leaguer with Tampa Bay.   In my opinion he should become best friends with SWR.  Learn to maximize the stuff you have and put in the hours of homework to become a really good pitcher.  If he puts the effort in I think he is a #2 pitcher.   

Your making things up now, I didn't even look very hard and found 3 articles describing how hard Bradley works to better himself. He even accepted his demotion to AAA with humility, stating that he needed to work on things while he was there.

https://throughthefencebaseball.com/where-does-taj-bradley-fit-in-the-tampa-bay-rays-rotation/

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/taj-bradley-shows-marked-improvement/

https://facts.net/lifestyle/sports/50-facts-about-taj-bradley/

10 minutes ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

It hurt the fans and their hopes, it hurt attendance going forward, and it hurt any chance that a free agent might want to come to Minnesota to play.

For this to be true, you would have to argue that the 51-56 Twins were a team filled with hope, on the field and in the hearts of fans. 

That team was awful, and had no hope regardless in how hard you squinted. The only "hope" they had was their existence in the worst division in baseball and the "hope" that the other four teams might suck just a little bit more than the Twins. 

34 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Your making things up now, I didn't even look very hard and found 3 articles describing how hard Bradley works to better himself. He even accepted his demotion to AAA with humility, stating that he needed to work on things while he was there.

https://throughthefencebaseball.com/where-does-taj-bradley-fit-in-the-tampa-bay-rays-rotation/

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/taj-bradley-shows-marked-improvement/

https://facts.net/lifestyle/sports/50-facts-about-taj-bradley/

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/twins-taj-bradley-makes-wild-revelation-about-studying-habits-before-pitching  

He had never done scouting reports.  If you want to go deep down the rabbit hole, here is what you will find,  he never really tried to improve his stuff,  he tried to do the same thing over and over and over.  This past year the Rays said they were going to change it up for him,  and he struggled immensely.  Granted what the Rays wanted to do was stupid in my opinion.  They took away what had been his most reliable consistent pitch and then he seemed to lose all confidence.   From going through various reports the biggest issues with Bradley and Tampa Bay was putting the work in to get better and they threw in the towel on him.   It doesn't mean Taj doesn't have potential.   But you have a young pitcher who has struggled and has never put in the prework of going over scouting reports?   That is what I am talking about.  

He had always been able to get by with just his physical ability.   At this level it is as much mental as it is physical.  So are you going to throw a hitter who can hit fastballs but not offspeed- fastballs or offspeed.  Maybe he has totally relied on catchers to do the homework.  But he should know players tendencies,  if they like to pull the ball, if they struggle with inside or outside pitches.  This is like the bare minimum to be a big league pitcher in my opinion.  Add in when he really did try to revamp his stuff he effectively fell apart this year.  Now I do think the Twins have a good plan with him.  I am glad he is willing to do the homework.  Like I said before I hope he connects with a player like SWR.  SWR has the mental part of the game down.   He can also show how he has tried to change his arm angle for more velocity vs losing a little bit of vertical drop.    Go read some articles on SWR, his intelligence level about pitching is off the charts good.  Very similar to a Sonny Gray.  Honestly wish his stuff was just a little better, you would have a top tier SP in my opinion.   

The most interesting acquisitions at the trade deadline were the two catchers. Unfortunately, it will likely be 3-5 years before either of them get to the majors and we can see whether they were worth trading for.

The Twins paid $33 million to make Coffee go away. There isn't much to discuss there.

Outman and Roden fit near the bottom of the current major league outfielders on the 40 man roster. Not much to discuss there either.

Abel and Bradley fit right into the group of age 22-26 pitchers who have been minor league starters and are on the 40 man roster but haven't really established themselves as starters. Most of them will end up in the bullpen,.  They are probably behind Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Festa. But nobody really knows. The 2 of them will likely get chances to be starters, but like most of the guys in this bucket, the likely outcome is the bullpen.

Mendez falls into the same bucket with the near ready outfielders in the upper minors , that the Twins are hoping will be the outfield of the future. He is likely behind the other 3.

Finally the other pitchers from the deadline deals are wild cards that the Twins hope they might get lucky with.

What the Twins accomplished with their deadline deals was lengthen slightly, their depth in areas they seemingly already had quite a bit of depth.  Whether this will make them better in the future, I can't even guess.

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

You have to look at it more than just the prospects received. Its partially the money saved, but the real "wild card" here is the improved draft capital.   At the all star break we had the 13th or 14th best record.   We now have high odds of getting a top 5 pick and 60% odds of a top 3 pick.   I still stand by trading all the relievers was to tank for better draft picks in a really good draft.  This has to be part of the equation. 

Pitching -  Abel, Bradley, Rojas, Gallagher (assets received currently in top 30 prospects)

Hitters - Tait, Mendez, Jimenez, Roden 

We win on the Castro,  Bader, Paddack and Coloumbe trades.  We traded less than 1/2 a season of control for Horn, Gallagher, Armstrong, Jimenez and Mendez.   I have high expectations for both Mendez and Jimenez.  

Stewart for Outman.  Trading an injured pitcher for an outfielder than can't hit.  Likely not a needle mover in either direction just looks really bad.   

Jax for Bradley.   I do this trade everyday of the week.  Trade 2 1/2 years of a volatile reliever for 3 1/2 of a younger highly volatile SP.  Both with question marks on attitude and willing to work in a team environment.   Bradley say what you will showed he was willing to be a professional with the Twins and try new things and his last start he looked really really good.  

Varland for Roden and Rojas -  I just don't know.    Varland ERA was high - but he was the Blue Jays most used arm out of the bullpen in the playoffs.  On paper Roden and Rojas is an overpay for Varland,  to me even taking the emotional arguments out of it,  I think we lose this trade.  I think Varland is either the setup man or closer for the Blue Jays for a long time.  Roden either needs to become an above average outfielder or Rojas needs to become a closer or high end pitcher.  

Duran for Abel and Tait.  I do this trade every day.   I think Abel will be a very very good pitcher for us.  His last start he had complete command of his arsenal.  I think he was tipping pitches unintentionally.   If you can control that he should be good in my opinion.  Of the pitchers I think he is the best one of the group and will be a solid #2 for us down the road.  Tait is full of potential but is still potential at this point.  

Trading Correa was just a salary dump.  Honestly I think that trade is just fine.   

Unless you think we could win the WS this year or next year - that is the only real valuation where we lose on these trade deals.  We appeared to be a broken team at the end of the season and the only 2 players who really performed for their teams were Duran and Varland.   

 

You put together a good argument fully dependent on if and supported by I think. I also think that the trades were good if every player develops into a regular above average player or a star.

Your mention of tanking is interesting. If it were proven and the ownership supported the front office in this plan, we won't have to worry about either the Pohlads or Falvey and those also in the know in the front office. MLB will force a sale and ban all involved from baseball. Wouldn't that be sweet? I think that the Twins fortunes would improve if that were to occur.

Kinda depends on what the plan is. Which at this point...There is a plan right? If it is to compete in 2026 big loss. 2027 and beyond. Win.

If I have to give an overall grade, I'd say B to B+ so a win (assuming the later from above)

I'd rather have an injury prone Steward over Outman and if I had to trade Varland I would have wanted an infielder or a couple A ball guys over Rodon. Nothing against him. He may be a fine MLB player for many years to come. But a person can only wear so many left shoes... Those two trades I'm pretty meh on. Wins in the others.