Joe Ryan, Jose Berrios, and the Twins' Next Homegrown Pitching Gamble

[Cody Christie]

There is something appealing about developing a starting pitcher, watching him become an All-Star, and keeping him in the organization for the prime years of his career. Homegrown players can become the foundation of a successful team, and few positions are more difficult to fill than the top of a starting rotation. However, paying pitchers for their future performance is one of the most dangerous investments a team can make.

The Minnesota Twins have already faced this situation with José Berríos. They eventually traded the homegrown right-hander to the Toronto Blue Jays when the two sides couldn't find common ground on an extension. Now, Joe Ryan is approaching a similar point in his career.

Ryan has become one of Minnesota's most recognizable players and an important part of its rotation. He also has one year of team control remaining. Should the Twins make a significant financial commitment to keep him around, or should they repeat the pattern established by their previous experience with Berríos?

The José Berríos Situation

Berríos was one of the most important homegrown players the Twins developed during the 2010s. After selecting him in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft, Minnesota watched him develop into a reliable major-league starter. He earned two All-Star selections and became the organization's Opening Day starter in multiple seasons.

However, contract negotiations never reached a successful conclusion. The two sides discussed a potential extension, but they were unable to agree on the financial commitment. As Berríos approached the end of his team control, Minnesota decided to move him at the 2021 trade deadline.

The Blue Jays acquired Berríos on July 30, 2021, sending top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to Minnesota. Toronto clearly had an interest in keeping its new starting pitcher beyond the remainder of the season. Just a few months after the trade, Berríos agreed to a seven year, $131 million contract.

That was a substantial commitment, but it represented a reasonable market value for a 27 year old starting pitcher with his track record. Toronto was willing to pay for his durability and establish him as a long term piece of its rotation.

His performance with the Blue Jays has included some significant highs and lows. Berríos struggled during his first full season in Toronto, posting a 5.23 ERA across 32 starts in 2022. However, he bounced back over the next two seasons. He recorded a 3.65 ERA in 2023 and followed that with a 3.60 ERA in 2024. He also made 32 starts in each season, providing the type of consistency teams want from a veteran starter.

His performance slipped again in 2025, when he finished with a 4.17 ERA in 31 appearances. Unfortunately, his durability finally became a significant concern. Elbow problems carried into 2026, and Berríos eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in May and missed the rest of the season. 

Looking at the entire situation, the Twins were not necessarily wrong to move Berríos, and Toronto was not necessarily wrong to extend him. The Blue Jays received several productive seasons from their investment, but they also assumed the financial risk associated with a long term pitching contract.

Minnesota received two prospects for a pitcher who was approaching free agency. That return provided the organization with additional young talent, although neither player was a guaranteed replacement for the production Berríos could have provided. The larger lesson is that keeping a homegrown pitcher can be valuable, but it comes with considerable risk. Even durable starters can experience performance fluctuations and significant injuries.

Joe Ryan Is Approaching the Same Crossroads

Ryan is entering a similar stage of his career with Minnesota. He has established himself as a dependable major league starter, earned two All Star selections, and become one of the most important pitchers on the Twins' roster.

There is no question that Ryan provides value. He finished the 2026 season with a 3.79 ERA, and 159 strikeouts across 144 2/3 innings. His strikeout ability (25.9 K% in 2026) and overall track record make him an important piece of Minnesota's rotation.

However, his 2026 campaign included some warning signs. Ryan carried a 2.85 ERA into the All Star break, but his first three starts afterward were disastrous. He surrendered 16 earned runs across 15 1/3 innings before the Twins placed him on the injured list with a left glute strain on August 7.

He returned to the rotation on September 7 after a rehab outing. His first three starts back resulted in eight earned runs over 12 innings, including two losses. Ryan did finish the season on a more encouraging note, allowing two runs while striking out eight across six innings against the Texas Rangers in his final start.

The injury does not erase everything Ryan has accomplished, but it raises questions about what Minnesota should expect moving forward. The Twins have seen how effective he can be when everything is working. They also have seen how quickly things can change when he struggles or deals with an injury.

Minnesota finished 77-85 in 2026, placing third in the American League Central and eight games behind the Cleveland Guardians. The club remained in the postseason picture until the final month, but there are still significant roster questions heading into the next season.

Ryan has one year of team control remaining before he can reach free agency following the 2027 season. That gives Minnesota another year to evaluate his health, consistency, and ability to lead the rotation.

There is also a financial component to consider. Committing to Ryan now would mean guaranteeing future money to a pitcher coming off an injury interrupted season. It could also complicate Minnesota's ability to pursue a trade if the team falls out of contention during the 2027 season. A healthy Ryan would be an attractive option for a contender looking to strengthen its rotation, potentially bringing back valuable prospects or controllable talent.

For an organization that needs to improve several areas of its roster, maintaining that flexibility is important.

Replace the final section with this version, which puts more emphasis on Ryan's age and why a long-term extension may not fit the Twins' plans.

An Extension Is Unlikely

The Twins should not rush into a long term commitment with Ryan simply because he is a homegrown player. In fact, an extension might be unlikely, especially when considering where he is in his career. Ryan was a late bloomer who took a less conventional path to becoming an established big league starter. He is already 30 years old and will turn 31 next June.

That age is an important factor when discussing a potential contract. A typical extension for a younger starting pitcher can buy out several seasons of arbitration and potentially secure the player's prime years. Ryan is in a different situation. Any significant extension would likely cover seasons when he is already well into his 30s. The Twins would be guaranteeing money to a pitcher whose long-term durability is still an important question.

There is also the organization's financial situation to consider. Minnesota has several areas of its roster that need attention, and committing substantial resources to an aging starting pitcher could limit its ability to address those needs. Ryan has earned the right to pursue a significant contract, but the Twins might not be the organization willing to provide it.

Berríos provides an interesting comparison. Toronto was willing to make a seven-year commitment to a pitcher who was still in his 20s. Ryan is already past that point, making the financial calculations considerably different. Even if Ryan returns to his previous form in 2027, the Twins would have to determine whether they want to invest in his early-to-mid 30s. An extension might not be realistic, but that does not eliminate the possibility of keeping Ryan for another season or exploring a trade if the team falls out of contention.

The Twins learned with Berríos that homegrown pitchers do not always remain with an organization for their entire careers. Ryan could eventually follow a similar path, particularly with free agency approaching and his age becoming a larger part of the contract conversation. Minnesota should appreciate what he has accomplished, but it also needs to recognize the financial and performance risks of paying a starting pitcher into his mid-30s.

Sometimes the best decision is recognizing when a player's value to the organization is greater than the contract it would take to keep him.

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Should the Twins attempt to extend Ryan? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

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[Major League Ready]

Joe Ryan has already gone through the Jose Berrios crossroad.  Berrios was traded when his value was high.  Joe Ryan is already a long way down the road of less value.   The similarity between the two is that the Twins did not get the value they should have for Berrios and almost certainly will not get the value they should have out of Ryan.  

[Patzky]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Joe Ryan has already gone through the Jose Berrios crossroad.  Berrios was traded when his value was high.  Joe Ryan is already a long way down the road of less value.   The similarity between the two is that the Twins did not get the value they should have for Berrios and almost certainly will not get the value they should have out of Ryan.  

If so, perhaps the shorter front loaded four year contract is the wise choice then. If as you say value cannot be recouped form a trade of Joe, generating our own value with a costly but shorter term relationship is something to consider.  Shop him if you like but don't feel obligated to bite. Of course the terms and the player need to agree. 

[Linus]

To me, this article is illustrative of why the Twins are in this position - poor FO decision making. They correctly chose to trade Berrios but didn’t get appropriate value back. They incorrectly chose to hang onto Ryan and will, again, not get appropriate value back. These two situations alone, with good outcomes, would have a dramatic effect on the current roster. 

[tony&rodney]

This article serves as a reminder of why it is difficult to believe in the Twins front office actually making the type of decisions that would improve the 2027 roster. It's kind of depressing.

[Andy MacPhail]

If Ryan could be extended, he'd be extended already. I don't think he's interested. So the question isn't if he'd be traded but when.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I would say he would have been a qualifying offer candidate had he reached free agency this year, and he likely will be next year, even with a similar up and down season. He might take a qualifying offer next year as a pillow contract, effectively extending him through age 32 season. And then he walks, and we aren’t stuck with an aging pitcher. Or he takes the most guaranteed money available, and we get compensation.

So any offer we get would have to be better than a compensatory pick. You’d think he is worth more now than mid next season, since an acquiring team this winter would get to issue a QA next offseason.

Of course, this is all assuming the QA system is still in place next CBA. It looks like MLB has proposed elimination of it as a concession to players in their proposals for the next CBA.

I don’t really want to extend him. Those are the kind of contracts that limit roster construction on teams like the Twins. The Rays and Brewers would trade him, right?

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan was not developed by the Twins. He had 4 innings in AAA with this franchise.

[Twodogs]

1 hour ago, Post-Concussive Blues said:

The Rays and Brewers would trade him, right?

The Rays already traded him.  Ha ha

He was not a homegrown pitcher.  He was part of the Nelson Cruz trade and he was pretty much already developed to the point where the Twins had him up with the big club pretty quickly.  I mean the Twins got him as a young pitcher, but unlike Berrios, he was not drafted and developed by the Twins.  He was developed by Tampa Bay.  Honestly, the Twins have proven for awhile now that they struggle to draft and develop pitchers so they really should be trying to pull more trades off with teams like Tampa that do a good job of developing pitchers.  I mean Bradley came from Tampa Bay also.  They need to do more of that until they can actually develop a few guys.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

If so, perhaps the shorter front loaded four year contract is the wise choice then. If as you say value cannot be recouped form a trade of Joe, generating our own value with a costly but shorter term relationship is something to consider.  Shop him if you like but don't feel obligated to bite. Of course the terms and the player need to agree. 

It very difficult to create excess value paying free agent prices.  Milwaukee understands that a team with 1/2 the revenue of other teams needs to create twice as much production per dollar spent.  Berrios has produced 1 WAR per 13.7M so far.  His salary goes up substantially the next two years so it probably gets worse.  

How much additional value would they have created had the traded for Tolle?

[Mike Sixel]

Didn't they use the money not spent on berrios on Gray? 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

In terms of getting any significant value in return, the Joe Ryan ship has sailed and is already far out to sea.

A mixture of delusions, fan/press induced pressure, and short-termism is a dangerous and deleterious combination when tying to build a true contender. Sad. 

[Herbie]

Huh? Joe Ryan isn't homegrown talent.

What to do with Joe. This is why the Twins can't compete. The current and previous FO constantly sit on the fence. The decisions they make are half measures. Not going all-in for a title or going full rebuild mode for the future are the problem. They add pieces that don't SIGNIFICANTLY improve the roster and it has become the norm since their last best season of 2019. I hope 7 years of this type of roster building has shown them enough, to convince them to try a different approach. What they do with Ryan will tell us if they have learned anything.

[MeleMouth]

18 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

In terms of getting any significant value in return, the Joe Ryan ship has sailed and is already far out to sea.

A mixture of delusions, fan/press induced pressure, and short-termism is a dangerous and deleterious combination when tying to build a true contender. Sad. 

Theme: "Don't trust the lack of process."

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 minutes ago, Herbie said:

Huh? Joe Ryan isn't homegrown talent.

What to do with Joe. This is why the Twins can't compete. The current and previous FO constantly sit on the fence. The decisions they make are half measures. Not going all-in for a title or going full rebuild mode for the future are the problem. They add pieces that don't SIGNIFICANTLY improve the roster and it has become the norm since their last best season of 2019. I hope 7 years of this type of roster building has shown them enough, to convince them to try a different approach. What they do with Ryan will tell us if they have learned anything.

Welcome to the site! Joe Ryan is effectively home-grown. He's a very different pitcher than he was in the Rays system.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

To me, this article is illustrative of why the Twins are in this position - poor FO decision making. They correctly chose to trade Berrios but didn’t get appropriate value back. They incorrectly chose to hang onto Ryan and will, again, not get appropriate value back. These two situations alone, with good outcomes, would have a dramatic effect on the current roster. 

It's the perpetual yearly attempt at scraping by today while mostly ignoring tomorrow. 

Meanwhile we are beaten routinely by teams today by organizations that make decisions based on tomorrow. 

It's attempting to be Philadelphia without the money to be Philadelphia. Instead of attempting to be Milwaukee or Cleveland with more money to spend then they do. 

Unless the CBA changes everything. It has to stop. 

[MeleMouth]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It's the perpetual yearly attempt at scraping by today while mostly ignoring tomorrow. 

Meanwhile we are beaten routinely by teams today by organizations that make decisions based on tomorrow. 

It's attempting to be Philadelphia without the money to be Philadelphia. Instead of attempting to be Milwaukee or Cleveland with more money to spend then they do. 

Unless the CBA changes everything. It has to stop. 

The CBA can't change "everything." A more even playing field will improve the odds, but over time teams that make better decisions will outperform regardless of economic environment.

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

The CBA can't change "everything." A more even playing field will improve the odds, but over time teams that make better decisions will outperform regardless of economic environment.

Agreed... It will always come down to better decisions... no matter the rules of the game. 

However, if the Owners get anything close to what they are proposing. The roster building tools available to a team like the Twins change. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Herbie said:

Huh? Joe Ryan isn't homegrown talent.

What to do with Joe. This is why the Twins can't compete. The current and previous FO constantly sit on the fence. The decisions they make are half measures. Not going all-in for a title or going full rebuild mode for the future are the problem. They add pieces that don't SIGNIFICANTLY improve the roster and it has become the norm since their last best season of 2019. I hope 7 years of this type of roster building has shown them enough, to convince them to try a different approach. What they do with Ryan will tell us if they have learned anything.

If I purchase a tomato sapling from my local garden center, transplant it to my garden, water it, fertilize it, remove the weeds, do I not get to eat homegrown tomatoes? Do I have to plant that tomato plant from seeds? Do I have to grow my own seeds, or am I allowed to buy them?

do I have to draft a pitcher out of college? High school? Genetically engineer a pitcher in a lab?