A Preliminary Look at the Minnesota Twins' Baseline 2027 Roster and Payroll

[LewFordLives]

Should the numbers include Josh Bell's buyout?

They really need to bring back Jeffers.  Ugh......

[DataNerd]

Lewis hasn't been near a good enough hitter to go into the year penciling him in at 1B.  Clemens is a good UTIL, but he's not been a great defender (and been better in the OF than IF).  Sign/Trade for a 1B & 2B, move Larnach to DH would bolster the offense.

[tony&rodney]

33 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The single biggest priority is re-signing Jeffers to be our starting catcher in ‘27 and ‘28 and then transition to 1B/DH in ‘29-‘30.   Four years at $17.5MM for a total of $70MM.

This supports Falvey's pattern of drafting and signing players who could be big bats (Jeffers, Wallner, Larnach, Rooker, Sabato, etc.) but are best suited to slot as DH only. If the team wanted a slugging DH, the ticket was Kyle Schwarber at $35M per year. Ryan Jeffers is not a good catcher by any objective means. He doesn't throw well and struggles to block pitches down, which is a real negative for any pitcher. Tough to see Jeffers as anything but a poor first baseman. Finally, will Jeffers offer a bat as consistent as Josh Bell for 150 games at DH?

A QO is one year and that works. I think Jeffers takes it but have no idea really. It is easy to understand how many people like Ryan Jeffers. I can respect those opinions. As a former pitcher I want Patrick Bailey as my catcher. My hope is that the Twins try to complete a trade (which can be done by mid November) or sign a defensive minded catcher and that Vahn Lackey develops quickly (2028).

[saviking]

2 hours ago, Clear Lake Twinsfan said:

Nick, I think that you may have understated the salary for Jeff Hoffman in 2027.  While it is correct that he is in the last year of the 3 year, $33 million contract that he signed with Toronto ($11 million AAV), both Baseball Reference and Fan Graphs Roster Resource show that the salaries were not spread evenly over the three years and show a 2027 salary of $12,666,667.  It appears that Tom Pohlad took on more salary at the trade deadline than he was given credit for.

I like Hoffman but man, that's a big salary for a relief pitcher. 

[LyleCole]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

While it is easy to agree with you that the Twins passed on multiple opportunities to trade players, the time has arrived to look forward. I have been greatly frustrated by the Twins missing out on transaction opportunities in 2023, 2024, and the 2025 offseasons. That is gone now, so I'm hoping and looking forward to some change before December. Think positive. 

Positive thinking is not analytical thinking.   And it is absolutely correct to point out mistakes that have happened in the past.   The mistake they made at the beginning of 2026 was not trading Buxton and Joe Ryan.   If you set their relative trade value to 100 in the offseason of 2026, I would argue that Buxton's trade value is now about 40 and Ryan's 50.  Less than half.   I would argue that Ryan Jeffer's trade value relative to the trade deadline is also 50.  

And the real need to make those trades at max value is that the Twins pitching pipeline is rather barren and we really do not have a lot of other methods of adding to the pitching core.  We have to make smart draft picks for pitching, develop those players and then add smart prospects from trades, such as getting Joe Ryan in the first place, to fill out the staff. 

Where we need to be positive is believing that our core group of prospects that are just pushing to the majors now will have what it takes to become a competitive team over the near far term (2-3 years).  Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lee, Diaw, Lackey, Tait, Tinney, Mendez, Gonzales, Roden, Keaschall.   I think there is a lot of data that suggests we should be positive with this group.  

If we brought up that entire group like the Twins did in 1982 with the Hrbek-Gaetti-Brunansky-Viola cohort, took their lumps, found out which of these guys pans out and which does not, then bring in the second wave Gagne-Puckett,  And then make smart moves in trades (Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven) and lower end free agents hopefully we can form a truly competitive team.

And while people have made comments that baseball today is not what it was in 1982, one factor that is different is that if we "tank" for a year or two that just adds top level draft picks to our system.  But in that era without signing bonus slot values it was very difficult for the Twins to sign their picks.  In 1983 the Twins failed to sign the #1 player picked in the draft, Tim Belcher and their 2nd round pick, #29 Bill Swift.  That was a major blow and I also believe it made them gun shy from drafting players they feared would not sign.

[Mike Sixel]

That's actually a better team than last year's, given the vastly improved outfield defense, and Culpeper at short to start the year. 

I'm not convinced it's not a playoff roster, actually. So I'm 100% expecting Tommy boy to instruct Zoll to do something stupid, like trade actual prospects for a one year player. I hope to be wrong. 

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, saviking said:

I like Hoffman but man, that's a big salary for a relief pitcher. 

The going rate for a closer is $16-20M

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The going rate for a closer is $16-20M

Also, where else are they spending money?

[Whammy]

6 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Only 4 lineup regulars had wRC+ over 110 last year: Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, and Larnach. Meaning everyone else was average or worse offensively. They may have little control over keeping Jeffers, but it seems odd to drop Larnach when the chances of replacing his production in 2027 are slim. As part of a more aggressive rebuild, fine.

I understand the roster squeeze, but Martin seems expendable and Larnach fills a similar, if more limited, role.

100+ is average or better.

Clemens, Bell, and Lee were above 100 and therefore above average offensively

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's actually a better team than last year's, given the vastly improved outfield defense, and Culpeper at short to start the year. 

I'm not convinced it's not a playoff roster, actually. So I'm 100% expecting Tommy boy to instruct Zoll to do something stupid, like trade actual prospects for a one year player. I hope to be wrong. 

Culpepper at SS is offset by losing Jeffers. The difference between Larnach and Rodriguez is Larnach’s value comes from his bat and Rodriguez comes from his glove - push. Jenkins should improve on Wallner but that’s where most of the improvement comes from. 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, where else are they spending money?

They should be spending on the right side of the infield and catcher. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Culpepper at SS is offset by losing Jeffers. The difference between Larnach and Rodriguez is Larnach’s value comes from his bat and Rodriguez comes from his glove - push. Jenkins should improve on Wallner but that’s where most of the improvement comes from. 

Fair. Like I said, nothing matters as long as Tommy boy is running the show though

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, DJL44 said:

They should be spending on the right side of the infield and catcher. 

Easier said than done. 

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

I was just thinking if the Twins do not bring back Bell, Larnarch makes a perfect DH for them.  Since he is a 3/4 time player anyways sitting against LHP, he could DH 100 games with 20 in the OF so they can rotate players in and out of DH.  Then we only need to worry about 1B and C on offense next year.  

If they do this, then one of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins or Rodriguez is sitting to make room for him every time he starts. And what of Roden? Just out of the plans?

[Nick Nelson]

3 hours ago, Whammy said:

I don't agree with including Caratini's buyout in this spreadsheet. I understand that if it happens it will be a fiscal year 2027 expense but,

a) He could get traded
b) while it seems likely that the buyout will happen, we don't know that yet.

Gleeman mentioned on a recent GATG podcast that the team views that buyout as being on the 2027 books. So I'm just trying to align with that.

[killercarewoliva]

5 hours ago, TJSweens said:

Bringing back Ober would be a huge mistake even if they trade Ryan. He just blocks a better young pitcher. Prielipp, Abel, Matthews; which one do you drop from the rotation to make room for Ober?

Rojas has an earned run average. much much better than Matthews yet he gets sent to AAA. I watched a terrible start of his where all he could sing to do was walk people. the ball would just fade out away from the plate but otherwise he's pitched quite well. for replies, my phone will not seem to allow me to read more than one message.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, LyleCole said:

Positive thinking is not analytical thinking.   And it is absolutely correct to point out mistakes that have happened in the past.   The mistake they made at the beginning of 2026 was not trading Buxton and Joe Ryan.   If you set their relative trade value to 100 in the offseason of 2026, I would argue that Buxton's trade value is now about 40 and Ryan's 50.  Less than half.   I would argue that Ryan Jeffer's trade value relative to the trade deadline is also 50.  

And the real need to make those trades at max value is that the Twins pitching pipeline is rather barren and we really do not have a lot of other methods of adding to the pitching core.  We have to make smart draft picks for pitching, develop those players and then add smart prospects from trades, such as getting Joe Ryan in the first place, to fill out the staff. 

Where we need to be positive is believing that our core group of prospects that are just pushing to the majors now will have what it takes to become a competitive team over the near far term (2-3 years).  Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Houston, Lee, Diaw, Lackey, Tait, Tinney, Mendez, Gonzales, Roden, Keaschall.   I think there is a lot of data that suggests we should be positive with this group.  

If we brought up that entire group like the Twins did in 1982 with the Hrbek-Gaetti-Brunansky-Viola cohort, took their lumps, found out which of these guys pans out and which does not, then bring in the second wave Gagne-Puckett,  And then make smart moves in trades (Jeff Reardon, Bert Blyleven) and lower end free agents hopefully we can form a truly competitive team.

And while people have made comments that baseball today is not what it was in 1982, one factor that is different is that if we "tank" for a year or two that just adds top level draft picks to our system.  But in that era without signing bonus slot values it was very difficult for the Twins to sign their picks.  In 1983 the Twins failed to sign the #1 player picked in the draft, Tim Belcher and their 2nd round pick, #29 Bill Swift.  That was a major blow and I also believe it made them gun shy from drafting players they feared would not sign.

Well, I did agree they should have been traded. I had many reasonable ideas each of the last three years. That is over though. What lessons were learned? Who gets traded now?

Buxton has a NTC and 10/5. Lopez is a high salary returning from 1 and 1/2 years of recovery. The Twins can still trade any of Ryan, Ober, Kremer, Lewis, Lee, Clemens, and more. Obviously not all and maybe just 1-3, which is impossible to predict. As always there needs to be a return that seems fair.

I'm pretty bullish on Houston, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins. Hopefully Lackey is ready by 2028. Some of the DH only players need to really bop at the plate to get a shot. The Twins simply cannot go back to being the worst defensive team in baseball again.

The early 1980s teams were a long time ago. The unsigned draft choices were a factor of MLB money bypassing any financial abilities of the Griffith family which led to the sale of the club in 1984.

The Pohlads can make whatever choice they want. Given the sale prices of MLB teams recently, I would say their return will be stronger than it was projected to be just a year ago. The front office, though, is tasked with identifying the moves. We shall see. It would be difficult to watch the Twins sit on their hands once again and roll it all back hoping for good luck and knocking on wood.

[killercarewoliva]

no mention no mention of Josh Bell. why is he such a down possibility? he had 96 RBIs okay. he's not so old yet who doesn't want 96 RBIs on their team. Keaschell I don't know where to put him but he has to be there leading off. I think a must for the starting rotation would be Abel and wow was he fun to watch. and I saw Rojas throw that ball fading off into one walk after another but he seemed to get over that and his earned run avg is really good for a starter. with the other guys that are sure to be on the starting five Lopez Bradley Ryan well, if you get those guys in there and they stay healthy, it'll be one of the top starting fives in baseball. improving the team would be trading Lewis be interesting to see what could even be got for him and put some money out there for first base. I have to end with I can only read one reply. the rest are gone after I see one reply.

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, Peter said:

Like it but Ober and ryan will be gone-what about able and festa? Both of these guys need to be in starting rotation! 

Dicey proposal. Might work, might blow up 

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

no mention no mention of Josh Bell. why is he such a down possibility? he had 96 RBIs okay. he's not so old yet who doesn't want 96 RBIs on their team. Keaschell I don't know where to put him but he has to be there leading off. I think a must for the starting rotation would be Abel and wow was he fun to watch. and I saw Rojas throw that ball fading off into one walk after another but he seemed to get over that and his earned run avg is really good for a starter. with the other guys that are sure to be on the starting five Lopez Bradley Ryan well, if you get those guys in there and they stay healthy, it'll be one of the top starting fives in baseball. improving the team would be trading Lewis be interesting to see what could even be got for him and put some money out there for first base. I have to end with I can only read one reply. the rest are gone after I see one reply.

Which guy are you benching.... 

Jenkins, Buxton, Keaschell, ERod?

I mean, if you basically want to bring back the same team....

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, where else are they spending money?

Ironically money seems like less a concern than available talent and roster makeup. 

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Ironically money seems like less a concern than available talent and roster makeup. 

Agreed. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They should be spending on the right side of the infield and catcher. 

unfortunately the 1B market is pretty dismal and/or risky and I'm not exactly thrilled with the 2B opportunities. I know people around here are obsessed with Arraez, but he's been pretty poor since joining Philly and frankly none of the options sitting in FA are likely to be significant improvements on Clemens, unless you're one of the 7 people who think Jazz Chisholm is ripe for a big bounce back.

I'd certainly spend at catcher to bring back Jeffers, but I think the Twins are going to get out-bid.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

unfortunately the 1B market is pretty dismal and/or risky and I'm not exactly thrilled with the 2B opportunities. I know people around here are obsessed with Arraez, but he's been pretty poor since joining Philly and frankly none of the options sitting in FA are likely to be significant improvements on Clemens, unless you're one of the 7 people who think Jazz Chisholm is ripe for a big bounce back.

I'd certainly spend at catcher to bring back Jeffers, but I think the Twins are going to get out-bid.

You don’t have to upgrade on Clemens. You can upgrade on Royce and move Clemens to 1B. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 hours ago, Peter said:

Like it but Ober and ryan will be gone-what about able and festa? Both of these guys need to be in starting rotation! 

I forgot about David Festa. Hopefully he can be a bullpen option at some point. 

Abel is already throwing bullpens. I absolutely (if healthy) have him above Ober.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Is Alex Jackson still in the organization? Just curious. 

I am fine either way with Lewis being a utility option or traded. I don't see him in the starting lineup day 1. Other moves will be made, either at 2B or 1B, with Clemens probably starting the year in the other spot. 

And yeah, I am ok with trading Ryan for help (maybe at 1B or 2B, or a prospect they like) and I like Zebby and Abel more than I like Ober for the opening day rotation. Even if Zebby is eventually a bullpen arm, I'd take him in the rotation over Ober. If they can get SOMETHING they like for Ober, they should.

I do think Jeffers is gone. I also am pretty sure that whatever catcher is the primary catcher to start 2027, they will be an upgrade at controlling the bases to what Jeffers and certainly Caratini showed in 2026.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Ironically money seems like less a concern than available talent and roster makeup. 

I think my recommendation on which path to follow would depend heavily on what is being offered for Joe Ryan. If they get a good deal for Ryan, I would start selling on anyone 30 or older: Ober, Kremer, Larnach, even Hoffman, Nance, Banda, Clemens and Caratini. Lopez, Buxton and the kids stay. Lopez stays because his trade value can only go up.
 

If there aren’t any good offers for Ryan I would add a second baseman and a catcher and re-assess at the trade deadline. If they underperform again we will see as many players shipped out as we saw in 2025.

[killercarewoliva]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which guy are you benching.... 

Jenkins, Buxton, Keaschell, ERod?

I mean, if you basically want to bring back the same team....

I am wanting to move away from Lewis. I don't see him doing any better so what we need to do is make that the position. if you going to put some money out there let it be first base. from what I read about Rodriguez, he may have a hard time as a major league hitter, but we hope not. I'm hoping for Houston to make the team sometime during the season moving Culpeper to second base. Clemens is getting rave reviews everywhere. I mean he's a very likable young man but he doesn't even hit 240. on the other hand, he can play A lot of positions. it's just not the greatest offense. wouldn't you think about keeping the same guys.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

I am wanting to move away from Lewis. I don't see him doing any better so what we need to do is make that the position. if you going to put some money out there let it be first base. from what I read about Rodriguez, he may have a hard time as a major league hitter, but we hope not. I'm hoping for Houston to make the team sometime during the season moving Culpeper to second base. Clemens is getting rave reviews everywhere. I mean he's a very likable young man but he doesn't even hit 240. on the other hand, he can play A lot of positions. it's just not the greatest offense. wouldn't you think about keeping the same guys.

None of those guys play first. If you bring back Bell one of those guys is sitting. 

[killercarewoliva]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think my recommendation on which path to follow would depend heavily on what is being offered for Joe Ryan. If they get a good deal for Ryan, I would start selling on anyone 30 or older: Ober, Kremer, Larnach, even Hoffman, Nance, Banda, Clemens and Caratini. Lopez, Buxton and the kids stay. Lopez stays because his trade value can only go up.
 

If there aren’t any good offers for Ryan I would add a second baseman and a catcher and re-assess at the trade deadline. If they underperform again we will see as many players shipped out as we saw in 2025.

Yes, because Ryan doesn't play the second half very well and we've had three seasons in a row that the second half was a bomb. so we don't need a another bad pitching performance in August and September from Mr. Ryan but when he's on he is very good. The other teams are well aware of Mr. Ryan's second half and I'm not sure he's going to bring as much as he would have this year at the 1st of August.