Dean Kremer Has Pitched Better For Minnesota Than Baltimore—That Doesn’t Mean He’s Good

[Cody Schoenmann]

Recalled from Triple-A Norfolk on April 13, Dean Kremer joined the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation, with intentions of performing like the steady, above-average right-handed starting pitcher he was in 2025 before losing a rotation-spot battle to Zach Eflin in spring training. The 30 year old resembled his 2025-self, generating a 4.09 ERA, 5.45 FIP, with an astounding 37.5% strikeout rate over 11 innings pitched in two starts in mid-April. The long-time Oriole was however placed on the 15-day IL with a right quad strain on April 23.

The right-handed starter was transfered to the 60-day IL before rejoining Baltimore’s rotation on July 1. Kremer struggled upon returning, netting a 7.56 ERA, 6.56 FIP, and a less inspiring 20% strikeout rate over 25 innings pitched. The struggling veteran appeared to be at threat of being designated for assignment by Baltimore, given he no longer possessed minor league options after being recalled earlier in the season. Yet, Baltimore traded him to the Minnesota Twins on July 31 for left-handed hitting outfield prospect Jhomnardo Reyes. 

The veteran immediately slotted into Minnesota’s five-pitcher rotation, making his Twins debut on August 5. He performed well for his new club over his first two starts, manufacturing a 1.50 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and a 22% strikeout over 12 innings pitched. Yet, he has quickly regressed to his early-season form over his past three starts, netting a 6.75 ERA, 5.47 FIP, and a 21.2% strikeout rate over 14 2/3 innings pitched. 

Understandably, Twins Territory immediately was immediately enamored by Kremer, given the spectacle of him being a trade deadline acquisition and performing at an elite rate over his first two starts with his new club. The organization’s pitching development staff also implemented meaningful changes to his arsenal, having him rely on four-seamer more, while using his splitter as his go-to offspeed pitch. While these adjustments were sound and worked well over a two-game sample, Kremer has largely remained ineffective in Minnesota, netting a 4.39 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and a 23-to-11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 2/3 innings pitched. 

Kremer’s greatest hindrance this season is his inability to limit walks. In Baltimore, he walked 7.2% of hitters this, which is around league-average. Yet, he was getting hit hard and often, resulting in his aforementioned bloated metrics. With Minnesota, however, he has walked 10.3% of hitters—an untenable rate.

The only major league starting pitchers who can sustain success in the majors while walking hitters over ten-percent of the time are ones with elite stuff. Think Dylan Cease or Taj Bradley. Kremer, however, has zero plus pitches despite sporting a six-pitch arsenal. Possessing catastrophically poor command, below-average stuff, and a knack for allowing home runs (15 over 62 2/3 innings), it is no surprise that Kremer has been one of the worst starting pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched this season. 

I don’t fault Twins decision-makes for making the trade. The club was in dire need of starting pitching depth and Reyes is an 18-year-old lottery ticket sporting a 79 wRC+ with Baltimore’s Single-A affiliate. Still, if Kremer’s struggles continue the last month of the season, Twins decision-makers would be wise not to non-tender Kremer this offseason, quickly cutting ties with the right-handed starter targeted one month ago.

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[Althebum82]

The team really has no other option but to give him a chance to figure it out.  For Pete’s sake we are listing Morris as our starter tonight.

[djvang]

He melts down in a hurry. Always have someone warmed up.

[DJL44]

“I don’t fault Twins decision-makers for making the trade.”

I will. They’re so focused on “raising the floor” that they spent prospects to bring in a starting pitcher not good enough to win a playoff game. When you have a borderline team, you can’t “raise the floor” into the playoffs. You have to raise the ceiling.

[bean5302]

Kremer is a #6 rotation arm now that his velo has dropped, and that's what should have been expected. The Twins traded the equivalent of a PTBNL to get him and he's Arb eligible next year still.

He's had 3 productive starts vs 2 bad starts. That's way better than the Twins should have expected. Just as good as Gausman has with the Cubs.

There may be some value moving Kremer to the 'pen and seeing some velo increase since he has no options left. 100% a non-tender candidate if we don't work out a below arb expected contract.

[PuckettPond]

If Twins would have sold @ the trade deadline we would be having a more positive conversation. How did the Joe Ryan trade workout?

[LyleCole]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

“I don’t fault Twins decision-makers for making the trade.”

I will. They’re so focused on “raising the floor” that they spent prospects to bring in a starting pitcher not good enough to win a playoff game. When you have a borderline team, you can’t “raise the floor” into the playoffs. You have to raise the ceiling.

I essentially disagree.   Kremer is a 4th-5th starting pitcher and has a reasonable record at that level.  He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million.  

The fact is, the 4/5 starting pitchers in the major leagues have good games and bad games.   I think the Twins should plug him into the rotation in 2027.   The worst case scenario is that he just isn't that good and there are better options to put into the rotation although I am not sure exactly what those options are at the moment (perhaps someone has some ideas).   The best case scenario is that he pitches well to the deadline either helping the Twins to a playoff level record, or failing that, he is a pitcher that we can more than recoup our investment in.  

That is a very reasonable set of outcomes for trading a young, lower level, international, and outside the top-25 prospect list like Reyes, who in 95 plate appearances for Baltimore's A minor league team he has a .611 OPS.   

And, while I usually am an advocate of not using half way measures in building a roster (either rebuild or compete), I just do not think the Twins system has enough rotational arms to fill out the 2027 starting rotation.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Kremer is a 4th/5th with upside but is prone to blow ups.  However,  1 to 2 of those blow ups I put squarely on the Manager.  He gives you 5 good innings against a good hitting team and they tried to squeeze one more inning out of him.  Come on man, that was a great outing.   He has a FIP of 4.06 with the Twins and a 1.12 Whip.  The concern is the rising walks but with making some tweaks he has actually done pretty well.    I still think he could be a #3 with some additional tweaks in the offseason so I definitely think we offer arbitration.  I see the Twins keeping him over Ober.  

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

I essentially disagree.   Kremer is a 4th-5th starting pitcher and has a reasonable record at that level.  He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million.  

The fact is, the 4/5 starting pitchers in the major leagues have good games and bad games.   I think the Twins should plug him into the rotation in 2027.   The worst case scenario is that he just isn't that good and there are better options to put into the rotation although I am not sure exactly what those options are at the moment (perhaps someone has some ideas).   The best case scenario is that he pitches well to the deadline either helping the Twins to a playoff level record, or failing that, he is a pitcher that we can more than recoup our investment in.  

That is a very reasonable set of outcomes for trading a young, lower level, international, and outside the top-25 prospect list like Reyes, who in 95 plate appearances for Baltimore's A minor league team he has a .611 OPS.   

And, while I usually am an advocate of not using half way measures in building a roster (either rebuild or compete), I just do not think the Twins system has enough rotational arms to fill out the 2027 starting rotation.

Lopez, Bradley, Ryan, Abel, Rojas, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Kremer

[NYCTK]

31 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

He still has a year of team control on what is estimated to be a reasonable salary for a MLB starting pitcher of between $5-6 million.  

That was his salary THIS year. He wasn't exactly great, but we should still expect to see him get a raise in arbitration. Spotrac estimates $9M, but even if it's something more like $7.5M, that's starting to get expensive for someone like him, and you can probably replace his production, which isn't nothing, for that cost. Meaning he's a non-tender candidate along with Bailey Ober. 

Lopez - Trade candidate once healthy
Ryan - Trade candidate
Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Ober - NT candidate
Matthews
Kremer - NT candidate

Once you consider the potential transactions that you can argue SHOULD be made, you're not left with a very deep rotation

Bradley 
Abel
Prielipp
Rojas
Matthews

...and Pablo as he regains health. I think extending Pablo might be the best course of action.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lopez, Bradley, Ryan, Abel, Rojas, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Kremer

Ober is likely done after this year.    

So the locks

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley 

4th/5th  - Abel and Kremer right now   

Priellip, Rojas, and Matthews are your 6-8 arms.  

I do think there is a high probability that Ryan gets traded this offseason.  Now Abel could easily be flipped with any of your 6-8 arms.  That is nothing locked in.  I just see Abel as having likely the highest ceiling. Priellip and Rojas are just below him in my opinion.  

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Ober is likely done after this year.    

So the locks

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley 

4th/5th  - Abel and Kremer right now   

Priellip, Rojas, and Matthews are your 6-8 arms.  

I do think there is a high probability that Ryan gets traded this offseason.  Now Abel could easily be flipped with any of your 6-8 arms.  That is nothing locked in.  I just see Abel as having likely the highest ceiling. Priellip and Rojas are just below him in my opinion.  

Matthews has been much better than Kremer and it isn't close. People want Prielipp in the minors next year? That's no ceiling decision. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Matthews has been much better than Kremer and it isn't close. People want Prielipp in the minors next year? That's no ceiling decision. 

Injuries will occur- trades will happen - Kremer has some value and if this year has shown anything you need 7-8 arms I don't care where they are slotted.   

Just to be devils advocate - what is the difference between Matthews and Kremer based on their Twins statistics this year?   Other than a higher war they are effectively the same type of pitcher.  yes he has upside, just as Priellip and Rojas and Abel all have.  The issue is not all 4 of those pitchers are going to pan out.   I would be willing to bet 1 of those 4 gets significantly injured next year.  That is just the odds of starting pitching.   

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Injuries will occur- trades will happen - Kremer has some value and if this year has shown anything you need 7-8 arms I don't care where they are slotted.   

If you start your best players in the minors because you fear bad veterans will get hurt ... How many awful stats do you give Kremer before you give up? This fear is why the Twins are filled with mediocre veterans every year