Week in Review: Sliding Into September

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Twins had fallen six games below .500, with their playoff odds sinking toward single digits, by the time they finally made the move we've all been waiting for: promoting top prospect Walker Jenkins to the big leagues. Jenkins debuted at Target Field on Friday night and had a solid game, but he couldn't prevent the Twins from dropping a third straight game and sixth out of seven. The Twins would lose again on Saturday before rebounding to take the final game of the week.

A brutal month of August, somehow even worse than their post-firesale stretch a year ago, has effectively knocked the Twins out of playoff contention. But the arrival of Jenkins alongside Kaelen Culpepper gives fans an opportunity to turn their gaze toward a hopeful future while grasping onto the last fleeting glimmers of possibility for a 2026 run.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/24 through Sun, 8/30
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 65-72)
Run Differential Last Week: -2 (Overall: -56)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB); 4.0 games out of WC

Latest Game Results

Game 132 | MIN 9, ATH 6: Twins Take Big Early Lead, Hold Off Ninth-Inning Charge by A's

• Culpepper: 4-5, RBI

Game 133 | ATH 4, MIN 2: Offense Goes Back to Sleep, Buxton Exits with Injury Again

• Keaschall, Buxton, Jeffers: 0-10, 6 K

Game 134 | ATH 7, MIN 4: Bats Vanish After Three Early Homers, Bullpen Blows Lead

• Morris: 1 IP, 3 ER

Game 135 | CWS 7, MIN 4: Jenkins Debuts But Can't Save Twins From Third Straight Loss

• Kremer: 4 IP, 6 R (5 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K

Game 136 | CWS 3, MIN 2: Offense Goes Quietly Again to Waste Well-Pitched Effort

• Twins offense: 0-7 RISP

Game 137 | MIN 5, CWS 1: Twins Latest End Skid Behind Masterful Outing from Matthews

• Matthews: 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K

NEWS & NOTES

The Jenkins promotion was of course the big news of the week. The Twins' No. 1 prospect was called up on Friday with Alan Roden optioned to the minors and Woo-Suk Go designated for assignment to create room. The hope and expectation is that the 21-year-old Jenkins will be up for good. 

Byron Buxton, unfortunately, might be down for good (this year, anyway). He exited Tuesday's game with yet another flare-up of his balky right hip, which rendered him unable to bend over and pick up a rolling ball in the gap. The Twins waited several days to place him on the injured list but did so on Sunday, recalling outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez in his stead. This is Buxton's third time landing on the IL this year due to the same hip issue, and you've gotta believe that with the team's postseason hopes fading away, they are just going to call it on Buxton, with an eye on trying to get him back to a decent place physically for next year. General manager Jeremy Zoll acknowledged that offseason surgery is "definitely a potential option." 

 

A case could also be made for shutting down Joe Ryan for similar reasons, but it looks like the right-hander will try and get back out there for a few more starts in September to close out another forgettable second half on a positive note. Ryan threw live batting practice in St. Paul on Wednesday and was scheduled to throw another bullpen at Target Field on Sunday, with a rehab assignment to follow if everything checks out.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Jenkins certainly looks the part of a big-leaguer. He walked and singled in his first game on Friday, then picked up his first career extra-base hit Saturday on a hustle double. He looked good in center field and made an excellent running catch at the wall on Sunday. Culpepper also put together a strong week, highlighted by a four-hit game on Monday. He doubled, homered and struck out only four times in 24 plate appearances across six games. Culpepper is batting .313 with an .843 OPS so far in the majors while starting everyday at shortstop. The kids are looking all right. 

 

The rotation showed signs of settling in. They had the worst ERA in the American League over the month following the All-Star break, but in the past couple of weeks, Twins starters have at least gravitated back toward the middle of the road. 

Zebby Matthews is leading the charge. He's been one of the few bona fide bright spots of the second half for the Twins, shaking off a track record of inconsistency and homer-proneness to lock in with steadily effective outings. He was downright phenomenal this past week, holding the A's to one run over seven innings on Monday and then flirting with perfection on Sunday before ultimately pitching into the ninth with only one run allowed. Matthews has recovered brilliantly from a clunker at Wrigley coming out of the break, completing five-plus innings in seven straight starts with a 3.21 ERA and only four home runs allowed. He went 5-0 in August.

Taj Bradley's 11-strikeout performance on Tuesday included the first immaculate inning in Twins history: nine pitches, nine strikes. It's a great encapsulation of the dominant capability he possesses. His 27% K-rate ranks 12th among qualified MLB starters. 

 

Bailey Ober is a far cry from Bradley on the dominance spectrum but he continues to get the job done with some of the league's lowest top-end velocity. Ober delivered another impressive effort on Saturday, holding the White Sox to two runs (one earned) in five innings — although, much like Bradley's start on Tuesday, the lineup didn't do much of anything to support him. Since giving up three bombs against Baltimore on August 11th, Ober has a 2.51 ERA across three starts, with only one home run allowed, and his ERA for the season is down to a very respectable 4.37. I dunno how he's doing it, but he's doing it. 

LOWLIGHTS

Regression is catching up to the top arms in the Twins bullpen. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez, who've been overachieving all season, are seeing their respective breakouts tail off here in the final stage. 

Gómez had not given up multiple runs in an outing all year with the Twins before getting knocked around for four earned on Monday, yielding four hits and a walk while recording just two outs. It was a low-leverage spot for the closer, who entered with a 9-2 lead, but adds to what has been a rocky month of August in which he's allowed 10 hits and seven walks in 8 ⅓ innings. We're getting a bit of a reality check on the journeyman, which is not to take anything away from his stellar work overall. 

Morris came in for a one-pitch save on Monday after Gómez's meltdown brought the A's within three runs, but then picked up his sixth and seventh losses of the season on Wednesday and Saturday. The finale against the Athletics, which saw Morris turn a two-lead into a two-run deficit in the sixth, marked the third time in five appearances where he yielded three or more runs. He's got a 6.94 ERA in August after coming in at 3.12, and his negative-1.77 WPA this month is worst among MLB relievers.

 

Regression also came calling for Dean Kremer, who was touched up for six runs (five earned) in four innings against Chicago on Friday. He issued three walks and a wild pitch while striking out only three in an outing that more closely resembled his pre-Minnesota form. 

As with Gómez and Morris, this type of showing from Kremer doesn't cause me to lose sight of his usefulness or future fit, but it does serve as a reminder of who he is — a solid but unspectacular arm that probably shouldn't be counted on as a primary weapon on next year's staff. 

Offensively, the Twins are just a drag. For a while this lineup could never seem to get anything going in the early innings and now they've swung the opposite way. On three consecutive occasions (Wednesday, Friday, Saturday), Minnesota put up multiple runs during the first couple of innings and then went silent. Across those three games, with their backs against the wall, Twins hitters went 2-for-22 (.091) with runners in scoring position.

Ryan Jeffers has cooled off after initially mashing off the IL. He went 3-for-20 with a pair of singles and a double, and hasn't homered all month. Royce Lewis totaled five singles and no walks in 23 at-bats. His OPS has fallen back below .700, with undisciplined at-bats (24-to-3 K/BB ratio this month) that are increasingly irritating to watch. 

Both of these guys represent major offseason decision points for the Twins. Jeffers is due for free agency, and with a contract extension unlikely, the front office will need to decide whether it is willing to extend a qualifying offer and potentially recoup some value when he leaves, at the "risk" of paying a big one-year salary in 2027. If not, the wisdom of holding him at the deadline for a seemingly fruitless postseason pursuit will deserve a lot of scrutiny. 

Lewis, meanwhile, is headed toward his second-to-last year of arbitration eligibility and the team will need to make a call on whether they want to bring him back or go a different direction. We've seen flashes of his upside at times, but overall he's turned into a sub-par asset: a below-average offensive first baseman who is merely okay with the glove and prone to inexplicable lapses, like when he cost his pitcher a pitch-clock violation by being late to his position on Friday night.

TRENDING STORYLINE

With the team's playoff hopes drying up, we turn our eyes to the future. The good news is that the future is now for the Twins. Jenkins and Culpepper have arrived, with Gonzalez the latest to join the fray. We'll see if Emmanuel Rodriguez, whom the Twins will be obligated to carry out of spring training next year, enters the mix as a September call-up to get a bit of seasoning.  

Last year the Twins went 8-17 in September, stumbling to a 92-loss finish and leaving a sour taste for a completely unenergized fanbase. This year's team has an opportunity to finish on a much more inspiring note. The remaining 25 games may not prove to be particularly meaningful from a contention standpoint, but they can be plenty meaningful for many of the players involved.

LOOKING AHEAD

When we looked ahead to this portion of the schedule with 15 consecutive games against AL Central opponents, it had the makings of an exciting, season-deciding stretch. Alas, Minnesota's lackluster play over the past few weeks has tempered the stakes. At this point, making a run at first place is essentially out of the question, and the Twins' main objective will be staying above Detroit and Kansas City at the bottom of the division. 

MONDAY, AUGUST 31: TIGERS @ TWINS — RHP Jackson Jobe v. RHP Taj Bradley
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1: TIGERS @ TWINS — RHP Troy Melton v. LHP Connor Prielipp
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2: TIGERS @ TWINS — RHP Drew Anderson v. RHP Dean Kremer
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX — RHP Bailey Ober v. TBD
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX — RHP Zebby Matthews v. LHP Anthony Kay
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6: TWINS @ WHITE SOX — RHP Taj Bradley v/ RHP Sean Burke

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[Mike Sixel]

If they can get a legit prospect for Lewis, I'm in.

Zebby is criminally underrated on this site. 

Jeffers making the decision to QO him impossible. He's taking it off offered, but why offer a guy who plays 95 games a year? 

Keaschell should practice first and left field all day every day. 

Kremer? Blech. A number five pitcher, they have those. 

Ryan coming back is good for the team, if he's really good, because they can then trade him, which, well....

[Vanimal46]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jeffers making the decision to QO him impossible. He's taking it off offered, but why offer a guy who plays 95 games a year? 

Jeffers should absolutely accept a QO if offered to him. Nearly $25 million for a year then he could get another 3-4 year contract offer in the 2027/2028 winter? No brainer. 

[Parfigliano]

37 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they can get a legit prospect for Lewis, I'm in.

Zebby is criminally underrated on this site. 

Jeffers making the decision to QO him impossible. He's taking it off offered, but why offer a guy who plays 95 games a year? 

Keaschell should practice first and left field all day every day. 

Kremer? Blech. A number five pitcher, they have those. 

Ryan coming back is good for the team, if he's really good, because they can then trade him, which, well....

Really like Keaschall a 1B mitt and practice practice practice

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Really like Keaschall a 1B mitt and practice practice practice

It probably is the best spot for a guy that simply can't throw.  He could have some gritty/Dougie M vibes over there if he takes to the coaching.  (He'll never be that good, but he won't be the slugger type)

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

It probably is the best spot for a guy that simply can't throw.  He could have some gritty/Dougie M vibes over there if he takes to the coaching.  (He'll never be that good, but he won't be the slugger type)

He also has trouble catching, which at First , does really  count.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Ive said for a long time now, trade Lewis. People replied saying he was looking great and getting comfortable at the plate and on defense...still waiting for that. Just trade him. He's underperformed for years now. How many seasons do we need to accept this? He is a HUGE reason the team is struggling. Being late to his defensive position is just another example of why. 1B is supposed to produce high end offensive results. If we had that, we'd likely have won a few more games. 

Kremer is what he is. A #5 starter. We have those. If we sign or trade for a top end starter over the offseason and he is a casualty of that, so be it. Id much rather see a guy like Zebby or Prielipp get a rotation spot over him. 

Morris and Gomez look to be getting a tired. I dont think theyre used to pitching this much in a season. 

Jeffers has been rough. Makes me wonder if he aggravated that hand injury and is trying to play through it. 

[PuckettPond]

Twins need a hard reset trade or DFA every player 30 years or older, time for an influx of youth. Twins management should watch Logan's Run for pointers. Baseball should be played by youth not over paid washed up old farts. 

[wesnewy]

[LastOnePicked]

The only chance for recouping value for Lopez and Ryan next year is if they A) lead the team to a title or B) perform well enough and are healthy enough to warrant interest at the trade deadline.

A is of course preferable, but neither chance is very likely.

But there's probably no chance of recouping value for Jeffers at this point. $24M is a lot to pay for a regressing catcher. But, the Pohlads have the money, so I say make the offer, see if you can at least get a compensatory draft pick for him if he declines, or hope he has a little magic in the tank for '27.

Should we trade Lewis? We'll get nothing in return for for him. We'd be selling very low on an asset that had incredible potential. But that's practically the Pohlad's business strategy in a nutshell, so maybe that's what will happen. And maybe it is time to move on. It's tragic, though.

They have no choice but to be "all in" again for 2027. If Tom Pohlad is smart, he'll use free agency to supplement this team with a 30+HR first baseman, a #2 dependable starter and a first-rate reliever. Payroll needs to be at least league average. Tell Zoll that if it doesn't work out, the club will eat salary at the trade deadline.

I never thought this competitive window was open, but Tom does ... so prove it. Or for the love of God, sell the team.