It's Time to Move Byron Buxton to a Corner Outfield Spot

[SE23]

2 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

I see videos of a big facility where they teach pitchers to reach the high 90's. Can't Keaschall do something like that? He's an excellent, strong athlete with plenty of twitch. He should be able to fire a ball at least 92 mph with a running start. What I can't believe is how INNACURATE the throws are from outfielders all over the league. I see guys missing home plate by twenty feet. WTF??

Repeating a question I've asked before on the forum: Are Keaschall's arm problems directly related to his '24 TJ surgery? His scouting report from that year rated his arm at 50.

 

[HarmonK03]

4 minutes ago, Whammy said:

I'm not super interested in witnessing Larnach's regression for $7M, when we have Buxton, Keashcall, Emma, and Jenkins who will all almost certainly be on the Twins and playing OF most of next year (though I could see an Emma trade).

Seems like he could have some value to an org that's not so log jammed with lefty corner OF. If you can move him for some middling bullpen help or a minor league lottery ticket, I'd do that. If not, then I personally would non-tender him.

I have always liked Larnach, so from that standpoint I would like to see him stay.  But in reality like you said he should be moved or non tendered.

[djvang]

38 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

This is such a strange comment.  Of course he's been injured a lot.  But he's still been their best player this year, and the best player on the team for several years now.  

And, like, PR?  He has never come across as someone who loves or even likes the camera (he's no Carlos Correa).  What PR are you referring to?  

If you keep getting "blasted" for suggesting that the team's WAR leader hasn't contributed on the field, it's probably because that take is factually just not true.  

The PR is the team using him as the face of the team. They sell thousands of jerseys with his name on them. His face is everywhere. Except on the field. "Best players" play more than half the games. 

[Whammy]

4 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I have always liked Larnach, so from that standpoint I would like to see him stay.  But in reality like you said he should be moved or non tendered.

Yeah. He's been better than probably anyone on here could have hoped for this year, but we're already seeing some regression (74 wRC+ since the all star break) and for ~$7M with a crowded 2027 OF, it just doesn't seem to make much sense. 

[Jacksson]

58 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

How are you doing him a favor when he says he wants to be here for his whole career and has the power at least until his contract is up to say where he will play.

It is a BUSINESS !!  By trading him while he can still play CF you are extracting maximum value from an Asset.  Once he moves to RF, his asset value is diminished.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

It is a BUSINESS !!  By trading him while he can still play CF you are extracting maximum value from an Asset.  Once he moves to RF, his asset value is diminished.

In this business they give players who have played 10 years in the league and 5 years with the same team veto rights on any trade.  And Buxton has said he wants to stay here.  So no they can't just trade him because they want to, Buxton has to approve.  That is the business rule for baseball.

[David Maro]

It is August 19th and teams will add 1 position player and 1 pitcher September 1st. That is when you will see Jenkins and Ryan will be back. As far as Buxton goes who really cares if he is in CF or 1 of the other outfield positions. He plays 100 games or less in 162 game season. At his age and health history who thinks he will be on the field for more games go forward. It's time to move forward next year with a whole new outfield.

[Church of Kreidler]

Could not disagree more; I think Buxton's defense is his greatest strength. We all know that he's streaky at the plate, but if he's in the outfield that ball is going to be caught. Absolutely bring Jenkins up - whether this year or next, he'll be great to play when Buck isn't able to. But keeping Buck in center remains the best choice defensively.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

It is a BUSINESS !!  By trading him while he can still play CF you are extracting maximum value from an Asset.  Once he moves to RF, his asset value is diminished.

That's a totally different answer than your original "do him a favor" statement. Buxton has said over and over and over that he doesn't want to be traded. Trading him wouldn't be "doing him a favor," it'd be making the business decision you find best for your business. I'd argue that trading him is no longer the best business decision, but that's neither here nor there. Your original comment was that they should do Buxton a favor. Trading somebody who doesn't want to be traded is not doing them a favor. And as has been pointed out, they can't trade him without his OK, anyways. They haven't been able to since he signed his extension.

[Jacksson]

Buxton would have to be consulted on any trade discussions due to his NTA.  That does not mean that it cannot be floated that Buxton is available.  In those discussions with Buxton in which he is informed that the Twins would, at least, listen to trade offers, just that would convey the idea to Buxton that the organization no longer regards him as a fixture and lead Buxton to conclude himself that the remainder of his career may be best spent elsewhere.  His loyalty to the organization can also be made apparent by Buxton's own realization that his departure by trade could reward the organization he holds so dear. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, David Maro said:

It is August 19th and teams will add 1 position player and 1 pitcher September 1st. That is when you will see Jenkins and Ryan will be back. As far as Buxton goes who really cares if he is in CF or 1 of the other outfield positions. He plays 100 games or less in 162 game season. At his age and health history who thinks he will be on the field for more games go forward. It's time to move forward next year with a whole new outfield.

I will never understand the argument of "0 games of Buxton is better than 100 games of Buxton." Yeah, it sucks he hasn't been able to stay healthy. The team YEARS ago needed to start doing a significantly better job of having another starting quality CFer on the roster. They did it here and there, but not consistently enough. But having an all star for 100 games is better than not having that all star.

The Twins will not be better in 2027 with "a whole new outfield."

[Whammy]

37 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

It is a BUSINESS !!  By trading him while he can still play CF you are extracting maximum value from an Asset.  Once he moves to RF, his asset value is diminished.

So the "do the guy a favor" comment was just BS you thought sounded good then?

[Whammy]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I will never understand the argument of "0 games of Buxton is better than 100 games of Buxton." Yeah, it sucks he hasn't been able to stay healthy. The team YEARS ago needed to start doing a significantly better job of having another starting quality CFer on the roster. They did it here and there, but not consistently enough. But having an all star for 100 games is better than not having that all star.

The Twins will not be better in 2027 with "a whole new outfield."

This is exactly why I've had him on my fantasy baseball team for like 5 straight years.

"But he's injured too much to be valuable in fantasy." Nope. Incorrect. I get to put him on the IL when he's injured and start a replacement level CF for those games. When you combine his 100 games with the 60 from the replacement CF, it's a very productive 9th round pick at a position that doesn't have great offensive options

The key for the Twins is to have a replacement level CF (or LF if he moves positions) on the roster for the times he's on the IL. Because his per-game numbers and rate stats are still mostly fantastic (this recent slump not withstanding)

[HarmonK03]

27 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

Buxton would have to be consulted on any trade discussions due to his NTA.  That does not mean that it cannot be floated that Buxton is available.  In those discussions with Buxton in which he is informed that the Twins would, at least, listen to trade offers, just that would convey the idea to Buxton that the organization no longer regards him as a fixture and lead Buxton to conclude himself that the remainder of his career may be best spent elsewhere.  His loyalty to the organization can also be made apparent by Buxton's own realization that his departure by trade could reward the organization he holds so dear. 

So you think the Twins should move on from Buxton, that is fair.  But state that then saying they should do him a favor or that this is a business.

I think the Twins made it pretty clear that Buxton is not going to be traded and they are not approaching him about him.  And I doubt anything will change this offseason.  Quite frankly, I think this is a situation Tom P. will give input to if they even think about approaching him.  I am just as frustrated as anyone that he isn't out there for 140 games but I enjoy every game he is out there because he is an exciting player to watch.  And that is what the casual fan says and sees as well.  And based on Tom P. comments about winning back fans, I don't think he would want to take the PR nightmare that would come with moving Buxton.

[TJSweens]

I'm for moving Buck to a corner spot for the mere fact that LF & RF are a lot less wear and tear on the legs than CF. Buxton's repeated labrum injuries are probably an indicator that the Twins should reduce his milage. Especially at his age. The farther north of 30 you get, the easier it is to get those strains and the longer they take to heal.

[ashbury]

Once again, the clickbaity headline is way more extreme than the body of the article or its conclusion. I'm honestly tired of it.

Quote

It's Time to Move Byron Buxton to a Corner Outfield Spot

Quote

One way or another, though, it's time to start making a succession plan

I came into reading this with an eye toward what I wanted to say, and then found that it wasn't necessary.

[Cris E]

24 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Once again, the clickbaity headline is way more extreme than the body of the article or its conclusion. I'm honestly tired of it.

I came into reading this with an eye toward what I wanted to say, and then found that it wasn't necessary.

Amen.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

Assuming the Twins have no intention of bringing up Jenkins this year, this should be their off-season plan. Opening day 2027 (yes that is optimistic) should put Jenkins in CF, Buxton in LF, [insert player here] in RF. Could be a very strong OF, especially on defense if it is Rodriguez.

I'm with you except there is no "insert player here" for RF. Luke Keaschall is our best hitter. Period. Has been since May 1. He has to play, every day, somewhere, and will probably get 600 ABs as the leadoff man next year. I too wish he could play 2B so we could make Clemens a UTl, but that experiment did not work. At all. The only other places are LF or RF. Royce Lewis is the starting 1B for the rest of this decade. Same for Lee at 3B. Locking those 2 spots down is one of the things that's happened this year. 

I really think next year's roster is pretty close to set already after the try out camp that started Aug 1, 2025. The only open spots are 2B, one starting OF spot, and one or two bench OF spots. The starting IF is Lewis (1B), Culpepper (SS), Lee (3B), and either Clemens at 2B or Clemens as a super UTL if we can acquire a 2B. There's no one in the Minors ready for that job - Houston is at least a season away.  Buxton and Keaschall start in the OF.  Jeffers is he C if the heavens part and we re-sign him (I could see them offering 3-4 years at roughly $15-18M a year, but he might get more elsewhere), otherwise it's Caratini and Jackson in a time share. Kriedler is the glove first UTL that can play SS. Martin, Roden, Jenkins, ERod, GG and Mendez are either fighting for the 3, 4, and 5 OF spots, or for those plus a DH spot but I bet they bring Bell back as a fulltime DH so it's 6 guys for 3 spots.  My money is on Martin as a 4th OF/RH platoon guy who hits RH, Jenkins because he looks like the best of the 6, and then either Roden if he hits well the rest of 2026 and/or EmRod is traded, or EmRod because he's out of options. We either trade for a 2b or there's one more UTL/bench bat spot with Clemens at 2B. Done. 

[Cris E]

You can't move Buxton until you have another CF on hand. They used to sign very good ones (Taylor, Bader) but they didn't this year, either because they thought one of the kids would be up or they thought the 140 games played last year meant Byron would be around most of this year.  Whichever, it seems they miscalculated and we've been playing some bad gloves out there.

I think it's way too late to start working on this in 2026, but I've been indicating that they will begin the process as soon as Jenkins or Erod or Fedko or my little sister proves she can hit enough and field enough to take over out there.  That can't really be until after spring training next year since we won't have a read on the kids until then. 

I expect Byron will approach the discussion with dignity, but I also expect a players' manager like Shelton to be generous in how it gets implemented. So I would expect to see #25 in CF well into 2028 with a lot of the transition occurring during injury breaks.

EDIT: One other thing: Buxton still does have a good arm and should go to RF, the harder of the two spots in Target Field. It'll play to his professional vanity and leave the easier throws to Keaschall.

 

[Linus]

37 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Amen.  

Amen twice. 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, HeresWaldo said:

Personally I value speed over arm in center, and health permitting I'm pretty sure Buxton will be faster than Jenkins even a year from now. Candidly I don't think the next quality center fielder is in the organization right now, so I'd say stick with Buxton until it really becomes a problem or a more obvious candidate arrives. Now, if Buxton shows up to spring training next year with 75th percentile sprint speed that would be different, but at least for now I'm pretty confident he's faster and has more range than Jenkins or Rodriguez.

Buxton also has the advantage of being a sprint speed outlier. There are too few of them in the Statcast era for super compelling conclusions to be drawn yet, but there is some evidence that the player type Buxton is a part of really do age better (at least as runners) into their mid-30s, so I wouldn't be super confident that Jenkins will surpass Buxton next season. Downside is if this research is right, once it starts to go for Buxton it'll go quickly, but he may very well be able to put up similar numbers to his current ones in center 2 years from now, again health permitting.

Buxton's very fast but he has some of the slowest reads in MLB. Jenkins is no where near as fast as Buxton, but the word is he has great instincts/jumps/routes that make up for his borderline speed.

[Cris E]

7 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'm with you except there is no "insert player here" for RF. Luke Keaschall is our best hitter. Period. Has been since May 1. He has to play, every day, somewhere, and will probably get 600 ABs as the leadoff man next year. I too wish he could play 2B so we could make Clemens a UTl, but that experiment did not work. At all. The only other places are LF or RF. Royce Lewis is the starting 1B for the rest of this decade. Same for Lee at 3B. Locking those 2 spots down is one of the things that's happened this year. 

I really think next year's roster is pretty close to set already after the try out camp that started Aug 1, 2025. The only open spots are 2B, one starting OF spot, and one or two bench OF spots. The starting IF is Lewis (1B), Culpepper (SS), Lee (3B), and either Clemens at 2B or Clemens as a super UTL if we can acquire a 2B. There's no one in the Minors ready for that job - Houston is at least a season away.  Buxton and Keaschall start in the OF.  Jeffers is he C if the heavens part and we re-sign him (I could see them offering 3-4 years at roughly $15-18M a year, but he might get more elsewhere), otherwise it's Caratini and Jackson in a time share. Kriedler is the glove first UTL that can play SS. Martin, Roden, Jenkins, ERod, GG and Mendez are either fighting for the 3, 4, and 5 OF spots, or for those plus a DH spot but I bet they bring Bell back as a fulltime DH so it's 6 guys for 3 spots.  My money is on Martin as a 4th OF/RH platoon guy who hits RH, Jenkins because he looks like the best of the 6, and then either Roden if he hits well the rest of 2026 and/or EmRod is traded, or EmRod because he's out of options. We either trade for a 2b or there's one more UTL/bench bat spot with Clemens at 2B. Done. 

I agree with all that. here's a few thoughts to go with it.

I expect Ross to get a long look at 2B next spring, and it may turn out that if his SS glove is up to the task he could displace Kreidler. 

I think there's going to be a long talk about Bell vs Larnach in the DH spot. The dollars are close, Bell can face lefties and actually has power, but Shelton loves Bell in the locker room, so it's going to involve more than just stats. It'll be interesting to watch, but I expect to see Bell here.

Martin may just be out of luck, or at least this could be the spring when the music stops and he and Roden  are the two fighting for the last OF spot.  Much of his fate is tied to Larnach's, but if both Jenkins and ERod break camp he could be down to a RH pinch hitter role.  

The catcher is Caratini playing a ton with Jackson behind him. I think they'll get another veteran to cover for Caratini's inevitable injuries rather than let one of the Saints' catchers darken the far end of the bench. Cardenas and Banuelos are not answers to any MLB question. 

I kind of think there will be some significant trades this winter to shake out the AAA backlog. Maybe Mendez or Erod or Gabby plus pitching to get something shiny and large and controlled for multiple years. An infielder maybe? Xavier Edwards? 

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'm with you except there is no "insert player here" for RF. Luke Keaschall is our best hitter. Period. Has been since May 1. He has to play, every day, somewhere, and will probably get 600 ABs as the leadoff man next year. I too wish he could play 2B so we could make Clemens a UTl, but that experiment did not work. At all. The only other places are LF or RF. Royce Lewis is the starting 1B for the rest of this decade. Same for Lee at 3B. Locking those 2 spots down is one of the things that's happened this year. 

I really think next year's roster is pretty close to set already after the try out camp that started Aug 1, 2025. The only open spots are 2B, one starting OF spot, and one or two bench OF spots. The starting IF is Lewis (1B), Culpepper (SS), Lee (3B), and either Clemens at 2B or Clemens as a super UTL if we can acquire a 2B. There's no one in the Minors ready for that job - Houston is at least a season away.  Buxton and Keaschall start in the OF.  Jeffers is he C if the heavens part and we re-sign him (I could see them offering 3-4 years at roughly $15-18M a year, but he might get more elsewhere), otherwise it's Caratini and Jackson in a time share. Kriedler is the glove first UTL that can play SS. Martin, Roden, Jenkins, ERod, GG and Mendez are either fighting for the 3, 4, and 5 OF spots, or for those plus a DH spot but I bet they bring Bell back as a fulltime DH so it's 6 guys for 3 spots.  My money is on Martin as a 4th OF/RH platoon guy who hits RH, Jenkins because he looks like the best of the 6, and then either Roden if he hits well the rest of 2026 and/or EmRod is traded, or EmRod because he's out of options. We either trade for a 2b or there's one more UTL/bench bat spot with Clemens at 2B. Done. 

I am close to your roster, but I am guessing they use Wallner as the DH until he proves he can’t do it. Keaschall or Buxton is the DH vs LHP with Martin getting time in the outfield.

There are several 2B available as free agents and a few others obtainable in trades.

[DJL44]

If they get more than 240 games combined from Buxton, Jenkins and Rodriguez they will have beat the odds. The Twins could have a very talented and very injury prone starting outfield in 2027.

[Twins GFP]

42 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'm with you except there is no "insert player here" for RF. Luke Keaschall is our best hitter. Period. Has been since May 1. He has to play, every day, somewhere, and will probably get 600 ABs as the leadoff man next year. I too wish he could play 2B so we could make Clemens a UTl, but that experiment did not work. At all. The only other places are LF or RF. Royce Lewis is the starting 1B for the rest of this decade. Same for Lee at 3B. Locking those 2 spots down is one of the things that's happened this year. 

I really think next year's roster is pretty close to set already after the try out camp that started Aug 1, 2025. The only open spots are 2B, one starting OF spot, and one or two bench OF spots. The starting IF is Lewis (1B), Culpepper (SS), Lee (3B), and either Clemens at 2B or Clemens as a super UTL if we can acquire a 2B. There's no one in the Minors ready for that job - Houston is at least a season away.  Buxton and Keaschall start in the OF.  Jeffers is he C if the heavens part and we re-sign him (I could see them offering 3-4 years at roughly $15-18M a year, but he might get more elsewhere), otherwise it's Caratini and Jackson in a time share. Kriedler is the glove first UTL that can play SS. Martin, Roden, Jenkins, ERod, GG and Mendez are either fighting for the 3, 4, and 5 OF spots, or for those plus a DH spot but I bet they bring Bell back as a fulltime DH so it's 6 guys for 3 spots.  My money is on Martin as a 4th OF/RH platoon guy who hits RH, Jenkins because he looks like the best of the 6, and then either Roden if he hits well the rest of 2026 and/or EmRod is traded, or EmRod because he's out of options. We either trade for a 2b or there's one more UTL/bench bat spot with Clemens at 2B. Done. 

I believe RF may be a little more open than you, but I can see Keaschall getting first chance at it. I also think Jenkins is a virtual lock in the Opening Day lineup, the question is where in the outfield he will be playing.

Not arguing too much with the rest of your analysis. Lee and Culpepper are written in pencil, not pen. Clemens will stick, if only because he is solid defensively in positions of need. If there wasn't going to be a shutdown, I could see a few trades/moves being made, especially if the Pohlads were serious about increasing payroll.

[Twins GFP]

So many either/or comments when it doesn't have to be...

Virtually every great defensive CF moves out of CF at some point in their career. The transition for Buxton to LF could be gradual, with Buxton playing CF on Jenkins off days, injuries, etc. Having two CF worthy defensive outfielders is a good problem to have (Soul patrol allowed the wheels-spinning Cuddyer to basically play 10 feet off the RF line most nights).

[djvang]

4 hours ago, SE23 said:

Repeating a question I've asked before on the forum: Are Keaschall's arm problems directly related to his '24 TJ surgery? His scouting report from that year rated his arm at 50.

 

50 out of what? 1,000?

[SE23]

34 minutes ago, djvang said:

50 out of what? 1,000?

It's a FanGraphs scale used to measure prospects' tools. 50 is essentially average for an MLB regular.

I think we can agree that Keaschall's arm is WELL below average now.

I suspect  lingering effects of the TJ surgery

[Andy MacPhail]

Buck has battled a sore hip for a good part of the season, so his defensive stats would indicate that. Even with a sore hip, he's not that bad & does not justify moving him off CF.

[DocBauer]

I'm going to disagree with the OP somewhat strenously. The Buxton in CF we're seeing now isn't the Buxton of the past. But he's still damned good. And the defensive numbers indicate he's still good, according to the OP, but I still have a hard time conseptionalizing most defensive metrics where there are so many, and they often disagree.

I haven't watched as many games lately as I normally due for various reasons. But throughout this season I've seen him continue to chase down balls that seemed destined for the gap that fell in to his glove.

He's still QUALITY in CF from everything I've watched this season. He STILL belongs there. His sprint speed is still amazing. The fact that he holds up once in a while to preserve his body might mess with a few metrics, but it's also something he's learned, with the advice of the Twins and Hunter as well.

For those worried about injury, both corner OF still have the wall to consider. In fact, corner OF have 2 walls to consider. So there is no saving grace there.

I DO think Buck might move to a corner OF beyond 2027. And I DO think he might DH a little more in 2027 just to preserve his legs/hip, but he's still the best CF for the Twins in general, but also a quality CF, in general at the ML level.

So NO, not now.