Phillies 7, Twins 5: This One Might Have Done It

[jkcarew]

56 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Or maybe parity has come to baseball. 

I’d just say mediocrity has come to an entire League…the AL. Combined with the fact that 40% of the league gets into the postseason since the introduction of 3 wildcard spots. Yes, Yankees playing a lot of the season with their B team.
 

The National league has been kicking the bejesus out of the AL in interleague…especially the ALC and ALW teams. Phillies came to town having just lost a series to the Cards. They were outside the NL wild card looking in and held a negative run differential. They dismantled the Twins in 3 straight…in Mpls…(except for a 2-out, 2- strike GS that made the last game look close-ish.) Twins now 13-26 against the NL…333 win PCT. Pretty easy argument can be made that the Twins (and probably at least a couple other AL wildcard “contenders”) would be dead last in both the NLC and NLE…and, in fact, the Twins lost both the Mets and Washington series, and were swept by the Reds and Pirates. There ain’t no parity in the NL. In the NL, if you aren’t actually good, you’re SOL.

[knothole61]

7 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Buxton absent or awful since June 15. There’s a reason. There’s been a reason virtually every single season of his career. And yet it continues to be an excuse for the team struggling down the stretch every single year. Insanity.

I'd call Buxton a mystery, but you are correct--he's really very predictable. He's occasionally brilliant, often injured, and prone to rather long slumps during which he seems incredibly easy to strike out on junk.

Before the break I was looking forward to watching Buxton challenge Killebrew's single-season home run record of 49, but I should have known better. He hasn't hit one since June 22 and he's stuck on 25. Almost two months without a homer, how amazing is that? Even considering his time on the IL it's amazing.

If things follow true to form he'll probably break out of his funk in from seven to ten games and become a world-beater again...let's see.    

[knothole61]

Good riddance Philly: get ye back to the land of the Liberty Bell, luscious cheese steak sandwiches, and the roar of certain crazed urbanites drag racing ATVs down Broad Street at night. Oh yes, they do!

Do not darken our door again.

Our flawed but interesting team was beaten three straight by a significantly better team...it's pretty much that simple. I think if we played ten times this year the Twins would win three, maybe. But...despite it all we remain only 1.5 games out of the last wild card spot that six teams are realistically vying for. My point is that the sweep was painful but not really surprising and that it certainly didn't mark the end of the line for the 2026 Twins. Now they must dig deep, play better, and hope to get hot in October. Considering all of the preseason naysaying this is really pretty exciting-yes?

[Riverbrian]

It's nothing that a good 15 game win streak won't cure. 

[CRF]

Braves and Pads coming up. I think the fat lady is warming up in the pen. 

[Coach]

Just curious, I wonder what the Twins record is with Buxton in the lineup since he came back after his first stint on the IL.

[Jack207]

I know everyone is pretty aggravated after yesterday's loss, but the main thing I see is lack of hustle which reminds me of last year at this time. Buxton doesn't run hard on the ground ball double play ball in the first inning. Also, I'm not a fan of jogging to first base even on a single like Bell does. 

No idea what Martin was doing on the fly ball to left in the 8th. That looked pretty routine to me,

[AceWrigley]

14 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

Good thing Twins were buyers not sellers this trade deadline. The proof is in the pudding. Giving up Dasan Hill for Hoffman feels wrong. If the Twins were smart they would be positioning the team for 2029 World Series not 2026 dumpster diving. So frustrating to keep the team below average & read comments the sky is blue when there is a down pour.

I haven't said much but I was disappointed with the trade deadline outcome. The bold and positively aggressive moves would have been to trade the over-performing Larnach and Jeffers, trade Joe Ryan before his predictable second-half struggles and acquire 2 major league starting pitchers. I think Zoll has done a pretty good job elevating the bullpen; now if they can stop Hoffman from trying to use his fastball as an out pitch.

I don't think trading these guys would signal a surrender for 2026. With the young talent available to bring up along with the players acquired at the deadline, a push for the playoffs this year would still be a goal and a better use of expiring talent would have been achieved. Maybe they attempted these moves and didn't like the returns available but if we miss out making the post season I think it will have been a big miss for the Twins moving forward.

[MinnInPa]

hard truth ... if your team is counting on so called stars like Buxton, Jeffers and Lewis to carry a team... you are not going to see many playoffs. watching this entire team flailing away at pitches out of the zone all weekend was depressing

[JD-TWINS]

16 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I’m right with you. I just did a blog post about getting some of our young guys some playing time this year. If Buxton and Martin are hurt, put them on the IL and call up Jenkins and Emma. DFA Kriedler and call up Ben Ross. Put Ross at second base and make Clemens the UTL. Sit Bell and give DH ABs to one of the young guys or to Clemens so Ross can play. Bring up Rojas, put him in the rotation, and put Ober in the bullpen. This team made a nice run by playing above their talent level, but that is now over. They are going to go, 1 – 5 or 2 – 4 against Atlanta and San Diego. Let’s get up these other guys and see if they can play.

After getting to this point, they might as well get the real sum of games played through the A’s series ……… 9 more games……..that still leaves 28 games for any call-ups if it’s even more obvious to punt. “How bad Twins are” is not the only fact/variable in the Playoff Race. After getting swept, they are 1.5 games out of the last Wildcard. They’ve gone 4-10……still in the mix. Is it feasible to go 6-4 over next 10?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

I haven't said much but I was disappointed with the trade deadline outcome. The bold and positively aggressive moves would have been to trade the over-performing Larnach and Jeffers, trade Joe Ryan before his predictable second-half struggles and acquire 2 major league starting pitchers. I think Zoll has done a pretty good job elevating the bullpen; now if they can stop Hoffman from trying to use his fastball as an out pitch.

I don't think trading these guys would signal a surrender for 2026. With the young talent available to bring up along with the players acquired at the deadline, a push for the playoffs this year would still be a goal and a better use of expiring talent would have been achieved. Maybe they attempted these moves and didn't like the returns available but if we miss out making the post season I think it will have been a big miss for the Twins moving forward.

Hind sight is always a solid way to determine what should have been done.

Jeffers was a FA rental…… not sure what level of quality the 2 starting pitchers would be, traded for Ryan & Larnach? 

[JD-TWINS]

Not sure if Bench calls pitches - Catchers call pitches - Pitchers call pitches?? Whoever thought it was a good idea to not throw another high fastball to Arraez, with 2 strikes on him, needs to look at themselves in the mirror when blame for this loss is placed. Throwing another high fastball was a no risk pitch with Luis. An off speed pitch away but over the plate, to the best contact hitter in the game for 5 straight years……..brain dead! Result, typical flare to left field that Martin couldn’t make a play on - game SHIFTS! Arraez had taken a questionable fastball strike above the zone - then swung through next high fastball - he either fouls off, or pops up, or K’s

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I’m right with you. I just did a blog post about getting some of our young guys some playing time this year. If Buxton and Martin are hurt, put them on the IL and call up Jenkins and Emma. DFA Kriedler and call up Ben Ross. Put Ross at second base and make Clemens the UTL. Sit Bell and give DH ABs to one of the young guys or to Clemens so Ross can play. Bring up Rojas, put him in the rotation, and put Ober in the bullpen. This team made a nice run by playing above their talent level, but that is now over. They are going to go, 1 – 5 or 2 – 4 against Atlanta and San Diego. Let’s get up these other guys and see if they can play.

Kreidler is interesting. Best defender on the team, but can't hit. Do we think Ross is as good defensively or has a real chance to be an actual MLB hitter? I don't, but others may disagree. I actually bring Kreidler back for next year for his last pre-arb year. Give Ross another year in AAA with maybe the September call-up next year to see if he's just completely overwhelmed at the majors or what. But, I wouldn't use his option years already. He's likely not somebody who's going to be worth paying any of his arb salaries (like Kreidler) so you want to maximize his options and pre-arb years. I'd start 2027 with Kreidler as my defensive utility guy who rarely ever actually plays because he can't hit and the young guys should be in the lineup everyday. That's the process I'd like to see them start now. I don't think Ross is good enough to put on the 40-man until late next year.

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Hind sight is always a solid way to determine what should have been done.

Jeffers was a FA rental…… not sure what level of quality the 2 starting pitchers would be, traded for Ryan & Larnach? 

Its not hind sight if you had the plans before the event. I'm sure other assets than just Jeffers and Larnach would be considered in packages to obtain said pitchers.

[jkcarew]

11 hours ago, knothole61 said:

If things follow true to form he'll probably break out of his funk in from seven to ten games and become a world-beater again...let's see

But those hot stretches have seldom, if ever, come in a season where he’s already played 100 games. They come in the first half or after a long break on the IL.

Not that what you suggest would shock me, because as you mention we have seen it many times and he’s definitely capable of doing so. Last year when he played a lot (for him) of games in the first half, he fell off some in the second half but was still good (803 2nd half OPS, 925 1st half). I’d definitely take that..but I imagine that it will get more difficult for him to hold up as each year passes.

[Geno48]

22 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika- Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Dean Kremer 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 6 K (89 Pitches, 52 Strikes, 58.4%)
Home Runs: Brooks Lee (18), Kody Clemens (21)
Bottom 3 WPA: Andrew Morris (-0.58), Byron Buxton (-0.19), Ryan Jeffers (-0.11)
Win Probability Chart (Via BaseballSavant):

For the eighth or ninth time, the Twins' season is on life support. After creeping above .500 with a win in Seattle, the team has gone 4-9, which hasn't impacted their place in the standings as much as it should, but has made winning 82-84 games a lot trickier. Perhaps no team out of the Twins, Detroit, Texas, Cleveland or Toronto ends up with a .500 record, but betting on that seems a risky proposition as non-contending teams start to phone in the rest of the season.

The Phillies dominated the first two games of the series, despite not starting Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez. The weakness of the team is their reliance on the struggling Aaron Nola (who shoved in the Field of Dreams game) and Sunday's starter, Andrew Painter, both with ERAs well north of 5.00.

It appeared that Painter might wriggle out of trouble in the first inning. He walked Trevor Larnach on four pitches, then fell behind Byron Buxton, but he induced a double-play grounder from the highly compromised Buxton. Fortunately, Josh Bell and Kody Clemens singled and Royce Lewis walked, bringing up Brooks Lee with the bases juiced. He nearly homered on a sweeper but was a hair out front. He then got a harder slider on 1-2 and smashed it into the right-field overhang for a grand slam.

Dean Kremer started for the Twins, and his afternoon started with Kyle Schwarber launching a 3-1 fastball off the wall in right-center field for a double. But Kremer settled in (despite falling behind a lot of hitters early), retiring Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper on weak flyouts before Luis Arraez lined out to Clemens at second base for the third out.

Kremer mixed his pitches well, giving roughly equal time to each of his five pitches while staying out of the middle of the zone. He got through the first four innings with 56 pitches, four strikeouts and just two hits allowed.

Perhaps jealous of Lee (they tend to homer in the same games for some reason), Clemens homered in the third, a no-doubter to the pavilion in right field off a fat fastball from Painter. He has hit .106 since his historic game-winning grand slam against Kansas City, so it was good to see him square up the ball and get rewarded.

The Phillies staged a rally in the sixth. Schwarber led off with a walk. Stott singled, and Harper drew another walk. Arraez dribbled a ball to second to score the Phillies' first run, but Clemens did convert the first out of the inning. Alas, Alec Bohm then tomahawked a splitter at the top of the zone for a three-run homer to trim the Twins' lead to one. That spelled the end of the day for Kremer, with Kody Funderburk coming on to record the final two outs of the inning.

The teams traded zeroes for a spell, but with Andrew Morris on the bump in the eighth, the Phillies got to work. With one out, Harper singled. Arraez laced a ball to deep left that bounced off of Austin Martin's glove. A fan touched the ball, so it was ruled a ground-rule double, but Martin appeared to hurt himself on the play and had to leave the game with what the team called a left hamstring strain. Bohm then blooped a ball to shallow right field. It landed between Lewis and Keaschall, allowing Harper to tie the game. The Twins elected to walk Brandon Marsh to bring up the struggling J.T. Realmuto with the bases loaded; the game (and perhaps the season) on the line. Morris got him to pop up on a 3-2 pitch, but Bryan De La Cruz slapped a single the opposite way to score two runs.

The Twins had the tying run on in their half of the eighth, and Brooks Lee served a ball up the middle that Stott made a diving stop on. He flipped to second, where Lewis was possibly safe, but he overran the bag and was tagged out trying to scamper back, a crucial baserunning blunder with the hot-hitting Keaschall due up next.

Facing dear old friend Jhoan Duran in the ninth, Caratini drew a one-out walk, and Kaelen Culpepper worked a great at-bat before singling on the ninth pitch to bring up Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers struck out after being ahead 3-0, and Buxton predictably struck out to end the game. He's just not himself right now.

Stuff I'm Tracking:

• Buxton looks rough, grounding into a rare (for him) double play despite being ahead in the count in the first; striking out on a ball at his eyes in the third; and swinging through a slider with runners on the corners in the fourth. He would later ground out weakly before his game-ending K in the ninth.
• The Twins couldn't get Painter included in the Jhoan Duran trade last year, opting for Mick Abel instead. Of course, Abel is hurt, but Painter looks more like a bullpen weapon at this point of his career, as he has allowed an .835 OPS against in his big-league career thus far.
• Victor Caratini has become a problem. His at-bats are non-competitive and he wasted both ABS challenges in the sixth in this one. Alex Jackson is now on the waiver wire, and I feel like he would be more productive as the backup catcher at this point. But Jackson has less of a track record, and the Twins owe Caratini $7 million next year with Jeffers (presumably) signing elsewhere.

I sure hope Vahn Lackey develops quickly.
 

What’s Next: The Twins welcome the Atlanta Braves to Target Field for a three-game set. Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA) opposes Martín Pérez (8-6, 2.96 ERA) in a must-win series against a formidable National League opponent. Pérez hasn't allowed a run since July, as he continues to oscillate between being a borderline All-Star and being out of the league. Ober has animorphed into Chris Young, and we'll just have to continue seeing how that goes.

Postgame Interviews: Coming soon

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Morris	18	0	0	23	28	69
Adams	0	42	0	0	0	42
Hoffman	24	0	0	17	0	41
Minter	9	0	0	12	14	35
Rogers	0	10	0	0	16	26
Funderburk	0	0	0	16	4	20
Nance	0	16	0	0	0	16
Gomez	11	0	0	0	0	11

 

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[David Maro]

As I said weeks ago every team knows pitch this team in the bottom of the zone. The other thing this team can't hit junkball pitchers. You will see that tonight with Perez pitching for the Braves. And of course he is a LH pitcher so Shelton will load the lineup with RH bats. This is the week to show up or start setting up their golf reservations for October.

[Geno48]

I think the manager can take the credit for the last two losses. Apparently he forgot he had two new studs in the bullpen….when the two killer rallies by the Phillies were heating up the starters should have been gone.  Most fans could see it coming, but Shelty must have been thinking about something besides winning.

[purplesoldier4u]

I was hoping for an 85-win season and a shot at the playoff, but alas, it does not appear to be in the cards. Sigh.