The Twins Should Be Glad They Didn't Trade for Zach Neto at the Deadline

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The trade deadline has officially come and gone, and the Minnesota Twins walked away with three new arms to bolster their pitching staff. But while those were the moves that ultimately got done, there was another name that generated plenty of buzz throughout deadline day. It just never crossed the finish line.

According to Bob Nightengale, the Twins were "all over" Angels shortstop Zach Neto leading up to the deadline. It was an interesting report considering there had been very little linking Minnesota to Neto in the days and weeks beforehand.

On the surface, it's easy to understand why fans would've been excited. Neto is a young, controllable shortstop with legitimate power and speed, and adding a player of that caliber would've been one of the biggest splashes the Twins could've made. But as intriguing as the idea sounded, I think Minnesota dodged a bullet by not completing that trade.

There's no denying Neto has developed into a quality major league player with the Angels. Across 476 career games, he's put together a .754 OPS and a 110 OPS+, while launching 77 home runs and stealing another 75 bases. That combination of power and athleticism has helped him quickly establish himself as Los Angeles' everyday leadoff hitter. Players capable of contributing 20-plus home runs while also providing impact on the bases don't exactly grow on trees. That's the appeal.

But once you dig a little deeper into his profile, some pretty significant concerns begin to appear. The biggest issue comes with his approach at the plate. His whiff rate and strikeout rate both rank in the ninth percentile or lower among all qualified major league hitters. That's an alarming combination, especially for someone expected to be setting the table near the top of a lineup. His chase rate sits in the 14th percentile, meaning he's consistently expanding the strike zone and offering at pitches he probably shouldn't. Even though he's already hitting just .230 this season, the underlying metrics suggest things could actually be worse. His expected batting average sits all the way down at .202.

Now, to be fair, expected batting average isn't everything. Neto intentionally sells out for pull-side power, and hitters with that approach often see their expected numbers suffer because they're trading contact quality for home run production. But it also reinforces a larger point. Neto isn't a particularly well-rounded offensive player. When the power is there, he's an exciting player to watch. But when the extra-base hits aren't coming, there isn't much else in his offensive profile to fall back on.

The concerns don't stop once he takes the field, either. Despite possessing above-average athleticism and solid quickness, Neto's defensive metrics have consistently graded out poorly. He ranks in just the second percentile in Outs Above Average this season, making him one of the least effective defensive shortstops in baseball by that metric. More importantly, this isn't simply a down year. He's ranked in the bottom tenth of the league defensively during each of his three full major league seasons. There's certainly arm strength there, and that has led some to believe third base could ultimately be his best long-term position. But that brings us to perhaps the biggest issue of all: the acquisition cost.

Neto is only 25 years old and remains under team control through the end of the 2029 season. Players with that combination of age, production and years of control don’t come cheap. Yes, the Twins have built one of baseball's deeper minor league systems, but even organizations with strong farm systems have to be careful about which prospects they move. Trading away one of your top prospects for a player with clear offensive flaws, below-average defense and a hefty acquisition cost is far from a slam dunk - especially when two of those top prospects are also shortstops. That's an unnecessary gamble, and judging by the fact a deal never materialized, it may have been one the Twins ultimately weren't comfortable making.

Would adding Zach Neto have created plenty of excitement on deadline day? Absolutely. He's a recognizable name, he's young, and he's capable of producing highlight-reel moments. But excitement doesn't always equal the right baseball decision. When you weigh the swing-and-miss concerns, the defensive limitations and, perhaps most importantly, the likely prospect package it would've taken to get him, the risk starts to outweigh the reward.

The Twins certainly improved their roster at the deadline by strengthening their pitching staff. And while some fans may wonder what could've been had Neto ended up in Minnesota, there's a strong argument that the best move the front office made was the one it didn't make. Passing on Zach Neto may not have generated the biggest headlines, but in the long run, it might prove to be one of the smartest decisions the Twins made all week.

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[tony&rodney]

Yah, I'm not buying that the Twins were "all in" on Neto. The Twins made numerous changes to their defense this season. Where was Neto going to play? He is somewhere between Tristan Gray and Brooks Lee as a shortstop and a speedy Matt Wallner at the plate. He is a DH. Maybe the Twins asked and were willing to trade Rodriguez, but those who put a high value on Neto haven't watched him play. When this rumor came out I saw it as nonsense. Neto is not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield.

[Craig Arko]

And Hunter Greene.

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, I'm not buying that the Twins were "all in" on Neto. The Twins made numerous changes to their defense this season. Where was Neto going to play? He is somewhere between Tristan Gray and Brooks Lee as a shortstop and a speedy Matt Wallner at the plate. He is a DH. Maybe the Twins asked and were willing to trade Rodriguez, but those who put a high value on Neto haven't watched him play. When this rumor came out I saw it as nonsense. Neto is not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield.

Would he have helped the offense? Yes. At the expense of losing Jenkins I think this trade would’ve been a mistake. Neto is solid now but defensively I can’t plug him in when Culpepper and Houston are in the mix. Just not a good fit either way you look at it.

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, I'm not buying that the Twins were "all in" on Neto. The Twins made numerous changes to their defense this season. Where was Neto going to play? He is somewhere between Tristan Gray and Brooks Lee as a shortstop and a speedy Matt Wallner at the plate. He is a DH. Maybe the Twins asked and were willing to trade Rodriguez, but those who put a high value on Neto haven't watched him play. When this rumor came out I saw it as nonsense. Neto is not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield.

Lol, not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield?!?! This Twins team loves players like that we have several on the roster currently...

[Hunter4848]

Being unable to part with prospects for proven big league talent is why the Twins are mired in mediocrity 

[thelanges5]

Not the guy to go all-in on. Especially with Culpepper and Houston on the team. Twins need a Nelson Cruz replacement. Someone you can park in the three or four spot that consistently produces. Those types are expensive, but this lineup needs it.

A guy like Yandy Diaz might fit the bill this offseason. 

[old nurse]

The Twins were unlikely to include Jenkins, Quick, either of their top SS or catcher prospects in proposed trades. The rest of the controllable players and prospects would be up for grabs.  4 of them were not going to equal Neto

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

Lol, not a guy a winning team uses in the middle infield?!?! This Twins team loves players like that we have several on the roster currently...

Perhaps you were not aware that Brooks Lee was moved to third base and Tristan Gray is now in AAA. Ryan Kreidler is a solid average to slightly above average shortstop but he doesn't really hit enough so he is really a utility player. It is far too early to make a judgment on Kaelen Culpepper. I watched him play dozens of times in the minor leagues and while he is not a finished shortstop he has good range and an excellent arm. He is a solid couple of grades above Neto on the defensive spectrum. You won't find a baseball person to disagree with that statement.  Clemens is a better middle infielder than Neto. Neto can run and Neto can slug. His K-rate is above 30%. The Twins are making moves to improve the defense and athleticism of the team. I have no idea where Neto would play on a decent team. The Angels? They should look to the future. 

If you have the time and are able to do so, watch Milwaukee play. They have a little bit of a problem hitting home runs but their defense is really good, they run the bases well, and pitch. Currently they have the best record in baseball. The Twins would like to move in that direction but also have a few players who can hit the ball over the fence. Neto would never fit on the Brewers team unless he was a DH and even then I wonder if that 30%+ K-rate would be acceptable to Pat Murphy.