The Twins’ Hidden Cost of Standing Pat at the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline

[strumdatjag]

4 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think we can trade Jeffers and/or Larnach and still be buyers. We just need to get young, controllable, MLB or near MLB ready arms 

The Twins need to rebalance the roster.   They have an oversupply of catchers,  position which is in demand.  They have an overabundance of left-handed hitting outfielders.  
Trade to reduce that surplus (Jeffers and Larnach most likely), and then enhance the pitching side.   

[Trov]

As in all trades the question is at what cost? Should we trade Jenkins, Culpepper, Tait, Quick, Houston, E-Rod, and others for say 3 pen guys and rental starter?  My guess is most fans would say no.  You can sell your full farm system to hopefully give you small edge this year, but is it worth it? 

We revisit trades all the time about how good or bad they were.  Selling off is always about is the future worth it, or could we have got better.  Buying is about did we get enough in return for what we may have given up.  Sometimes both sides are happy, sometimes both sides see it as a wash as neither did well, sometimes one team wins. 

The other question is if you give up a top prospect Culpepper or Houston this year to add a rental starter, will you have a SS next year you can count on?  How much better this year will the team be in that trade and will it push you over the top, versus how bad will you be next year or years to come?  No one will question if Twins make ton of buying moves, go on to win the ship no matter how bad things get for next few years.  Mid and small market teams need to decide is now the time to push all the chips in and gamble, or should we wait for a better spot in next year or two. 

It is rare a team can sit back and just wait for all their internal prospects to come up and carry a club.  Are the Twins happy enough with Lee at 3rd that they will trade Culpepper or Houston, not needing either to take over at 3rd with other at SS? 

There is so much the GM needs to think about.  Twins are doing better this year than expected.  Just about any fan would have thought we would be fully in last place looking to trade away Jeffers and Ryan most likely this year, but now we are talking about buying up guys to help push us to playoffs and to win. 

My personal view, is due to volatile nature of baseball playoffs, a team should look to keep their roster competitive year in and year out and not try to push all in on a single chance. If you can get into the playoffs you can win.  Just being the "best" team on paper in the playoffs will not mean even a series win.  We have been the favored team in series before and not win a game. Both times we won WS we were not expected to win either the ALCS or WS, but we did it. 

I am not saying do not make moves that make sense, but do not just buy up guys trading away valuable players or future assets just to win a couple more games possibly. 

[Cris E]

No one has suggested any of that.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins need to match the best record in the AL to make the playoffs and people want to invest the future for this year? 

Zero people are saying aim for 2030, can we not have ridiculous straw man arguments?

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If Tom Pohlad wants to spend cash on the 2026 team, that is his prerogative. There are salary dump players available. The organization cannot afford to spend talent on 2026. Teams with a budget like the Twins can’t afford to give away cheap talent.

Examples: Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, Luis Castillo, Jorge Soler, Kenley Jansen, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Mahle, Kyle Finnegan.

[nicksaviking]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Examples: Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, Luis Castillo, Jorge Soler, Kenley Jansen, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Mahle, Kyle Finnegan.

I don't think this season is going anywhere no matter what they do, but if the Twins are willing to take on salary to avoid giving up anything of note, they can go ahead and trade for a starter as far as I'm concerned. It would send a good message at the very least.

No bats though. And controversial take here, no relievers either. 

Because I think this team actually CAN be good in 2027, but they need to get the top young bats up ASAP and continue to transition the internal starters into relievers for that to happen. They can't sit on the young hitters and wait to transition the young pitchers to one inning relievers and expect it to come together all at once next year. Get these young guys up to speed now, and if you chase .500 while doing so, great.

[TheLeviathan]

 I got Clickbait Cody'd - I thought this article might actually point out some of the really negative things that happen from buying or not-selling.  Alas...we got none.

So let me throw it out there....Not selling will cause several of these things to happen:

1) The Twins will continue to have an OF-heavy 40 man roster which will force them to make difficult decisions where they get zero value for players rather than some value.  

2) The Twins will enter next year without any sample of the available AAA talent's ability to contribute by virtue of maintaining the veteran clogs on the roster, pushing back that evaluation another year.

3) Potential assets for Jeffers, Larnach, Gomez, Ryan, Bell will by bypassed in favor of no assets at all.  

4) The 2028 Twins will then have less assets in the war chest as potential players on the roster or fodder for trades when the team is an actual buyer.

5) Perpetuating the false narrative of contention only to face plant again vs. selling and maintaining the commitment to build an actual winner 

 

[purplesoldier4u]

8 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

It wouldn't be the worst case outcome.  The Twins would still be eligible for the lottery as its currently structured and would likely still have a decent shot at another top 6 pick.   I still see them being light buyers and they may do a bit of buying and selling.  Hancock is the only player where the Twins may give up some decent prospects for and I would be extremely happy about it.   Seattle and the Twins have done some good trades in the past so I think they would be willing to work with us.   Beyond that lets just wait and see what happens the next week with the team and then see what they do at the deadline.   We still only have a 25% shot at the playoff so this shouldn't be an all in scenario and standing pat would be fine as well.  

Jeffers can be offered the QO.   Larnach is abritration eligible another year as well as Joe Ryan.  Standing pat would be a perfectly acceptable option.  Even still another reliever would be nice.   

Keep Jeffers, Larnach, and Ryan, then try to add a RH power bat and maybe another good reliever. This team is not championship material, yet, but who knows?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a wonderful Christmas. We can't predict the future. "Winning isn't everything. It is the only thing. " ' Damn the torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead." As Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

[Hunter4848]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Examples: Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, Luis Castillo, Jorge Soler, Kenley Jansen, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Mahle, Kyle Finnegan.

They also cant afford to let talent walk out the door for nothing...

 

[TJSweens]

I'm dead set against buying for the short term. The Twins are where they are by greatly exceeding expectations. I would rather move guys like Larnach, Bell and Jeffers who are clearly not part of the long term future. Those guys won't bring in big time prospects, but they will yield prospects that will deepen the pool and can be used for future acquisitions.

[twinfan]

In most cases if the team is close, you have to strike while the iron is hot. You never know what next year or two will bring. I believe we will have a great starting staff next year if we get Lopez back and keep what we have. However, who knows if any will get hurt and we'll have to go hunting. And the relievers are doing ok right now but we really don't have a major stopper. 

The problem isn't whether we are buyers or sellers. The issue is what do we get in a trade. Supposedly we have lots of players on the cusp. But will they be like Buxton and have a big time lasting effect or will they be like Lewis and make a big splash then fade into the woodwork? And what about who we have now like Keashall and Krieder, etc.? Will they improve over the next year or two?

If I'm a buyer, I want someone who is good-great and someone I have control over for at least the next year or two. Those players are tough to find because teams might opt to trade top players who would be rentals (though we didn't last year) unless they are thinking about building for the future (which hardly ever works (IMHO)). So we may have to go with a rental and history shows that rentals don't necessarily win championships.

I agree the team has to show the fans we are trying to win it so let's go. You never know what can happen in the playoffs but you have to get there first.

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

 I got Clickbait Cody'd - I thought this article might actually point out some of the really negative things that happen from buying or not-selling.  Alas...we got none.

So let me throw it out there....Not selling will cause several of these things to happen:

1) The Twins will continue to have an OF-heavy 40 man roster which will force them to make difficult decisions where they get zero value for players rather than some value.  

2) The Twins will enter next year without any sample of the available AAA talent's ability to contribute by virtue of maintaining the veteran clogs on the roster, pushing back that evaluation another year.

3) Potential assets for Jeffers, Larnach, Gomez, Ryan, Bell will by bypassed in favor of no assets at all.  

4) The 2028 Twins will then have less assets in the war chest as potential players on the roster or fodder for trades when the team is an actual buyer.

5) Perpetuating the false narrative of contention only to face plant again vs. selling and maintaining the commitment to build an actual winner 

 

Potential assets from trades. From trading non Al Star players the Twins sold between 17to 23 the Twins netted 20 players. Only Duran made an impact. The trading of player who were All Stars for them netted them Logan Forsyth. Devin Smeltzer, Luke Raley, Austin Martin, SWR, Drew Strotman, and Joe Ryan. In case you forgot, that was trading Dozier, Berrios, and Nelson Cruz.. Trading anyone other than Ryan is unlikely to make a difference. 

Now the case for buying, what they bought other than than Fulmer and Romo never helped, long term. The 13 players other than Steer and Cano never amounted to much either. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Potential assets from trades. From trading non Al Star players the Twins sold between 17to 23 the Twins netted 20 players. Only Duran made an impact. The trading of player who were All Stars for them netted them Logan Forsyth. Devin Smeltzer, Luke Raley, Austin Martin, SWR, Drew Strotman, and Joe Ryan. In case you forgot, that was trading Dozier, Berrios, and Nelson Cruz.. Trading anyone other than Ryan is unlikely to make a difference. 

Now the case for buying, what they bought other than than Fulmer and Romo never helped, long term. The 13 players other than Steer and Cano never amounted to much either. 

There are few guarantees....except that several of these players will leave for nothing.  Not even a lottery ticket chance of something.

Call me Lloyd Christmas...but I'll swing boldly with the mathematical assumption that something > nothing.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

There are few guarantees....except that several of these players will leave for nothing.  Not even a lottery ticket chance of something.

Call me Lloyd Christmas...but I'll swing boldly with the mathematical assumption that something > nothing.

When you get a career minor league payer back, the team gets nothing. Occasionally a team will make a mistake at the deadline and send a Joe Ryan, but it is a rare occurrence. It doesn’t build a team. There really is nothing that drastic about selling or not selling expiring contracts. 

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, old nurse said:

When you get a career minor league payer back, the team gets nothing. Occasionally a team will make a mistake at the deadline and send a Joe Ryan, but it is a rare occurrence. It doesn’t build a team. There really is nothing that drastic about selling or not selling expiring contracts. 

So, to recap this post:  You can either get nothing or Joe Ryan.  Who is, presumably, not nothing.

Thank you for reinforcing my point in a way that sounded like disagreement.....I guess?

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, old nurse said:

When you get a career minor league payer back, the team gets nothing. Occasionally a team will make a mistake at the deadline and send a Joe Ryan, but it is a rare occurrence. It doesn’t build a team. There really is nothing that drastic about selling or not selling expiring contracts. 

I'm not sure what you're saying? 

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

So, to recap this post:  You can either get nothing or Joe Ryan.  Who is, presumably, not nothing.

Thank you for reinforcing my point in a way that sounded like disagreement.....I guess?

Joe Ryan was the return for a payer that was having a season where he was an all star.. Other than Ryan, none of the players bandied about as trade candidates are all stars.. I made that distinction very clear in my first post. I guess expecting people to remember what they responded to id a bit to much to ask.

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, old nurse said:

Joe Ryan was the return for a payer that was having a season where he was an all star.. Other than Ryan, none of the players bandied about as trade candidates are all stars.. I made that distinction very clear in my first post. I guess expecting people to remember what they responded to id a bit to much to ask.

You haven't made a coherent point yet.  The team got Joe Ryan for selling.  Then you seem to be claiming selling is also pointless at the same time.

You then seem to think this position makes sense.  I'm sorry, it doesn't.

 

[old nurse]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure what you're saying? 

I guess I should have repeated my first post so you might have understood 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, old nurse said:

I guess I should have repeated my first post so you might have understood 

In fairness, there are dozens of posts in this thread. I didn't even know you had a first. It's a downside of sites vs conversations. 

Your contention is only all stars return prospects worth trading for? That's just factually not true. 

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

You haven't made a coherent point yet.  The team got Joe Ryan for selling.  Then you seem to be claiming selling is also pointless at the same time.

You then seem to think this position makes sense.  I'm sorry, it doesn't.

 

What is incoherent about you trade all star players, you get something back that may help a club, when you trade the non all stars, it is rare to get a useful payer back?  

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

In fairness, there are dozens of posts in this thread. I didn't even know you had a first. It's a downside of sites vs conversations. 

Your contention is only all stars return prospects worth trading for? That's just factually not true. 

So provide a fact that it is wrong , versus the greatness that Tyler Watson, Zach Littel, Dietrich Enns Gabriel Moya, Nick Tepich, Chris Gimmez and Dakota Chamers 

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

What is incoherent about you trade all star players, you get something back that may help a club, when you trade the non all stars, it is rare to get a useful payer back?  

So all I need to do is show you that you can get useful players back without an all-star to prove this wrong right?  Dave Hollins?  Jared Camp?  Do you know how we acquired Duran?  Escobar?

Are they frequent?  No.  Do they happen?  Yes.  And since they do happen it is still a superior move to doing nothing.  Nothing yields definite nothing.  Please let me know if you need a further elaboration on "sometimes" is more frequent than "nothing"

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, old nurse said:

So provide a fact that it is wrong , versus the greatness that Tyler Watson, Zach Littel, Dietrich Enns Gabriel Moya, Nick Tepich, Chris Gimmez and Dakota Chamers 

Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley.  Just last year.

[tony&rodney]

All I'm getting from this thread is that a certain number of people are unhappy and no matter what occurs from week to week the Twins suck and all attempts to improve the roster also suck. Not much one can do with that approach.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

So all I need to do is show you that you can get useful players back without an all-star to prove this wrong right?  Dave Hollins?  Jared Camp?  Do you know how we acquired Duran?  Escobar?

Are they frequent?  No.  Do they happen?  Yes.  And since they do happen it is still a superior move to doing nothing.  Nothing yields definite nothing.  Please let me know if you need a further elaboration on "sometimes" is more frequent than "nothing"

1 out of 20. Was what I said in the first post.  Keep reinforcing the notion that I have to repost every one of my posts when I respond to you. Dave Hollins trade 30 years ago. Also in the Twin’s years, Ortiz’s best year by war was 1.3, not even close to what he was in Boston. You can’t say he would have done like he did in Boston had he not been there.  You think, 2 players in 30-40 years means it is a good strategy?.Just ignore the differences in scouting then and now with the technology  Jared Camp was a rule 5 pickup and traded after the draft. I would think that anybody  who is a Twin’s fan would know the difference between a rule v trade in the off season and a deadline trade

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley.  Just last year.

Bradley was beyond being a prospect   That was a trade of veterans 

[TheLeviathan]

19 minutes ago, old nurse said:

1 out of 20. Was what I said in the first post.  Keep reinforcing the notion that I have to repost every one of my posts when I respond to you. Dave Hollins trade 30 years ago. Also in the Twin’s years, Ortiz’s best year by war was 1.3, not even close to what he was in Boston. You can’t say he would have done like he did in Boston had he not been there.  You think, 2 players in 30-40 years means it is a good strategy?.Just ignore the differences in scouting then and now with the technology  Jared Camp was a rule 5 pickup and traded after the draft. I would think that anybody  who is a Twin’s fan would know the difference between a rule v trade in the off season and a deadline trade

Something > Nothing.   I just proved that your contention that only trading all-stars is worth it is false.  With several examples.

You went with "David Ortiz wasn't even that good".  Bold strategy cotton.  I'm not sure which argument you're making is more bizarre.  Nothing > something or "david ortiz wasn't very good".

[Mike Sixel]

54 minutes ago, old nurse said:

1 out of 20. Was what I said in the first post.  Keep reinforcing the notion that I have to repost every one of my posts when I respond to you. Dave Hollins trade 30 years ago. Also in the Twin’s years, Ortiz’s best year by war was 1.3, not even close to what he was in Boston. You can’t say he would have done like he did in Boston had he not been there.  You think, 2 players in 30-40 years means it is a good strategy?.Just ignore the differences in scouting then and now with the technology  Jared Camp was a rule 5 pickup and traded after the draft. I would think that anybody  who is a Twin’s fan would know the difference between a rule v trade in the off season and a deadline trade

We're only counting prospects, and we're only counting Twins trades? Just want to clarify before I respond again.