Would Tom Pohlad Really Trade Joe Ryan?

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

You need at least two elite starting pitchers in the playoffs. Unless you trade Ryan for a Kade Anderson (elite pitching prospect) it doesn't make sense to trade him before the CBA contract is done. If the Twins can't extend him after the new CBA is finalized then trade him then.

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

You can't really discuss "trading ryan" without an idea of who you should get in return.  First, you don't trade Ryan if you have a better than average chance of contending for the playoffs this year.  The Twins 4 game losing streak would seem to put that possibility to rest.  After all, most of us believe this team has over-performed this year so a return to the expected is not surprising.  With that said, then listening to offers for Ryan should be on Zoll's play list the next 12 days.

But a trade for prospects is not the answer.  A fair return would be at least one starter to replace Ryan(albeit not an equivalent but a #3 starter),  a near-ready major-league-ready infielder who has a better than even chance of filling the huge hole in the #3/4 spot in the lineup in the next 1-2 years, and maybe a high minor league pitching prospect who can reach the majors by 2028.  

Is that expecting too much?  Perhaps, but this is what the FO should be striving for if Ryan is dealt.  A Jeffers trade, which is certainly more probable, should bring in a late-inning reliever and a solid pitching prospect.  Such additions, should improve our chances to be true contenders in the next 1-2 years.  Unfortunately, I, too, have great reservations on Zoll's ability to structure such transactions.

You're being a bit unreasonable but only by a magnitude. 

The Freddy Peralta trade is a pretty good comp for Ryan with a potential for a little extra considering the additional 3 months. 

So, no, the Twins aren't getting a #3 in return for Joe Ryan (who himself is only a #2). But you can expect a Brandon Sproat type who was about a #80 prospect and seems like a sold #4/5 for years with a potential of becoming a #2/3. And he's not quite major league ready, but Jett Williams, about a top 30 prospect at the time he was traded, is about what you're asking for, even if you're again being a bit unreasonable asking that prospect to be able to be the cleanup hitter next season. And then, yeah, a third prospect outside the top 100 but not far off. 

 

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

the season kept ending before the playoffs...

as it will for the Jays this year.....

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

How badly do they want Joe Ryan for 2027,  is that the question we are asking ourselves?  I think it is more complicated than that.   

I should have clarified.. that was the question for potential suitors.

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, olerud said:

I love Joe Ryan,  however trading him now is the right move!!!! If you want sustainability this is the way you achieve it! Fans are dumb they don't understand the business side! You have to move your assets when you can otherwise you get nothing!

This dumb fan disagrees.

Your argument hinges on the last word.... "nothing" which just isn't true, no matter if you want to look at it literally, or a bit more holistically. 

 

[Patzky]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

The what ifs.. what if you get Brock Stewart and he gets injured immediately.. it's always a worry but not a driver unless there's a History.

[SarasotaBill]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

The new CBA will have term limits if the owners get their way.

If the owners get their way then the team salary floor will be $170 million.

No one can predict what will happen with the new CBA but that will be the best time to try to resign Ryan.

The injury possibility is a concern so if you can get an elite arm then do it now but if not then wait for the new CBA.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The what ifs.. what if you get Brock Stewart and he gets injured immediately.. it's always a worry but not a driver unless there's a History.

If the argument is "don't trade him now unless you can get X in return" then it absolutely needs to be part of the equation. The risk of losing a player (won't have him for the playoffs, may not get a player as good as him back, etc.) are always mentioned. A large part of the argument for not trading him is that you can do it later. Well, what if you can't? That needs to be part of the equation.

And there is a history with Joe Ryan. He never finishes seasons strong. Ever. His value is going to take a hit automatically due to the control being less. But if he has his typical 2nd half performance, it's going to tank even more. There is very real risk in holding Joe Ryan. See Lopez, Pablo for example. And the idea that you need to get prospect X now or he's not worth trading just doesn't make sense, because if you can't get them now, you're not getting them with less control of Ryan.

[chinmusic]

Ryan's last outing was extraordinary, and not in a good way.  Wonder if there is anything going on...

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

The new CBA will have term limits if the owners get their way.

If the owners get their way then the team salary floor will be $170 million.

No one can predict what will happen with the new CBA but that will be the best time to try to resign Ryan.

The injury possibility is a concern so if you can get an elite arm then do it now but if not then wait for the new CBA.

What if the new CBA makes Joe Ryan a free agent the second it's signed? What if Joe Ryan simply wants to go back to California and isn't interested in staying here no matter what the salary floor is?

The Twins already talked to Joe Ryan about 2027. He has an option for next year that was agreed to when he signed his deal for this year. I guess it's possible 2028 and beyond was never even mentioned when talking about 2027, but that feels unlikely. Dan Hayes reported that Joe Ryan was looking for 7 years, 210 million to sign an extension. If the owners don't get their way on a cap, Joe isn't staying here. If the owners do get their way with a cap, it's still very possible that Joe isn't staying here.

The point is that there's very real risk in not trading Joe Ryan before the deadline. If Joe's afraid there's going to be a drastic change in the CBA that will cost him money with his next deal, he's going to be the one driving extension talks right now. The odds of Joe signing an extension just because there's a new CBA in place are very low, in my opinion. If he won't sign for less than 7, 210 now, I find it very unlikely that he's willing to sign for less than that in the offseason.

[mike8791]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You're being a bit unreasonable but only by a magnitude. 

The Freddy Peralta trade is a pretty good comp for Ryan with a potential for a little extra considering the additional 3 months. 

So, no, the Twins aren't getting a #3 in return for Joe Ryan (who himself is only a #2). But you can expect a Brandon Sproat type who was about a #80 prospect and seems like a sold #4/5 for years with a potential of becoming a #2/3. And he's not quite major league ready, but Jett Williams, about a top 30 prospect at the time he was traded, is about what you're asking for, even if you're again being a bit unreasonable asking that prospect to be able to be the cleanup hitter next season. And then, yeah, a third prospect outside the top 100 but not far off. 

 

Agree my wish list is somewhat unreasonable, as obtaining all 3 of players mentioned would be an overpay, but there can be little doubt one of the trade pieces must be an established mid-rotation MLB pitcher who can step in immediately and be controllable for 3-4 years.  As for the mid-lineup addition, no, I wouldn't expect an established cleanup hitter to be in the trade package, but some under 25yo who might be blocked now on a roster but with some demonstrated power potential is badly needed,  particularly in the IF.  I just don't think you can build a solid contender with guys like Lewis, Lee or Clemens as starters.  And adding a top 100 pitching prospect is certainly doable for a #1 or 2 starter with one year + of control.  We simply have a dearth of competent starters in our minor league system.

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

My issue is, the "what ifs" can be played in both directions. Not just what if the prospects we get for Joe Ryan turn out to be Kohl Stewarts, but what if having Joe Ryan on the Twins leads to a 90+ win 2027 squad that has a decent chance to come out of the AL?

What if trading him now prevents that? What if we trade Joe Ryan and this time next year we aren't quite good enough to go for it and we start doing the "future value" math on Taj? Well... you know,,, he's down to 2.5 years of team control and he's getting expensive. Should we maximize his value? We could probably get some good prospects

What if we hadn't traded Duran and Varland last year? What if having them on the team this year instead of the contributions of Abel, Rojas, and Roden would've meant we were 5 games better? Maybe then we're buyers and rather than worrying about adding bullpen depth, we're looking at one big SP move that's going to move us up a notch in the AL power rankings?

What if the mindset of being a seller every year in an effort to permanently maximize value turns into a search for a future competitive team that never comes? The "go for it" team never arrives because past selloffs have hamstrung teams that maybe otherwise could have gone for it. 

[amjgt]

This isn't me saying "The Twins should never be sellers." I was in favor of almost all of the moves they made last deadline (including Duran). There's a time and a place.

But I just don't want to be a franchise that's always selling and I worry that being a seller again in 2026, pushes us down that path.

[1985Fan]

What if, what if, what if…..? Everyone assumes the return for Joe is going to be franchise altering and sets the team up for contention in the near future and beyond. No one knows what the return will be, and no one knows how well that player or players will turnout. Is a contending team going to trade major league ready pitching for Joe Ryan? Why would they trade for a pitcher if they have a sure fire SP waiting in the wings?! That will only happen if that team doesn’t have faith in that pitcher or pitchers. I would think that the return for Ryan would be a team trading from a position of strength. If they’re trying to acquire Ryan, that is not a position of strength. They may trade pitching prospects, which is another way of saying suspects. Do the Twins really need more position prospects in the farm system? 
Both Joe and Lopez will be back next year. Add Bradley to that and rotation should be a strength next year and a reason for optimism in 2026. They already have Jenkins and Culpepper (and others) to step in next year to bolster the lineup. If you trade Joe now, you’re selling out next season. 
It’s a tough/difficult decision. I agree with previous poster that the return has to blow Twins away or hang onto him for next year. I would like to see the Twins be sellers AND buyers. Trade Jeffers, Bell, Clemons, and maybe Larnach for pitching. They need both SP and BP arms. 

[gman]

If I am the owner, then I know that this is not the Twins year. The best way to get closer would be to trade Ryan, along with Jeffers, Bell, Larnich and several others. I would hope I get a Bradley and Able or better for Ryan in a trade. It may take a 3 team trade to make it happen, but that is Zoll's job.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, amjgt said:

My issue is, the "what ifs" can be played in both directions. Not just what if the prospects we get for Joe Ryan turn out to be Kohl Stewarts, but what if having Joe Ryan on the Twins leads to a 90+ win 2027 squad that has a decent chance to come out of the AL?

What if trading him now prevents that? What if we trade Joe Ryan and this time next year we aren't quite good enough to go for it and we start doing the "future value" math on Taj? Well... you know,,, he's down to 2.5 years of team control and he's getting expensive. Should we maximize his value? We could probably get some good prospects

What if we hadn't traded Duran and Varland last year? What if having them on the team this year instead of the contributions of Abel, Rojas, and Roden would've meant we were 5 games better? Maybe then we're buyers and rather than worrying about adding bullpen depth, we're looking at one big SP move that's going to move us up a notch in the AL power rankings?

What if the mindset of being a seller every year in an effort to permanently maximize value turns into a search for a future competitive team that never comes? The "go for it" team never arrives because past selloffs have hamstrung teams that maybe otherwise could have gone for it. 

The "what ifs" absolutely go both ways. That's my point. Both sides need to be taken into consideration. That is not what most comments are, though. Most comments say things like "we can trade him later if we need." But that isn't a guarantee. 

The calculation is taking all the "what ifs" from both sides and deciding how likely each is and then weighing those and making a decision. The Twins haven't been sellers every year. Their problem has been that they've been "sit by and do nothing" most years. They had a window open and they sat around and did nothing for back-to-back deadlines and then an entire offseason after winning a playoff series.

If the Twins do their math and decide they're likely to be a "90+ win squad that has a decent chance to come out of the AL" they should absolutely not trade Joe Ryan. And they should also get new equations. Because that isn't a likely outcome without significant changes to this roster. Beyond just hoping the prospects all hit the ground running full speed.

You kind of make that argument when you ask about keeping Duran and Varland meaning the Twins are 5 games better. Sorry, but 1 game above .500 in late July wouldn't have me hollering for a "big SP move." It'd have me saying the Twins should now trade Ryan, Jeffers, and Duran. For likely less than we got for Duran last year which hurts our chances to build that 90+ win squad in the future.

If you, or anyone else, sees a 90+ win Twins team next year without making some major moves, more power to you. I find that incredibly hard to believe.

[amjgt]

6 minutes ago, gman said:

If I am the owner, then I know that this is not the Twins year. The best way to get closer would be to trade Ryan, along with Jeffers, Bell, Larnich and several others. I would hope I get a Bradley and Able or better for Ryan in a trade. It may take a 3 team trade to make it happen, but that is Zoll's job.

If I'm the owner I know that I need to build positive momentum for a franchise that lacks it. There are a variety of ways to accomplish that, but trading Joe Ryan doesn't feel like one of them.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, amjgt said:

This isn't me saying "The Twins should never be sellers." I was in favor of almost all of the moves they made last deadline (including Duran). There's a time and a place.

But I just don't want to be a franchise that's always selling and I worry that being a seller again in 2026, pushes us down that path.

Totally get it. I just don't think they've been a franchise that always sells. They sold last year. Their problem is they are either a sell or do nothing franchise. They did a mini sell to get Ryan in the first place. But outside that, they really haven't done anything like a true selling team would do outside of last year. My argument would be that they should've finished that job during the offseason instead of playing the middle ground of trying to win now and rebuild when their chances of winning now are miniscule.

[amjgt]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you, or anyone else, sees a 90+ win Twins team next year without making some major moves, more power to you. I find that incredibly hard to believe.

Even with Jeffers and Ryan in 2027 I certainly wouldn't predict 90+ wins, but it's a hell of a lot easier to see a winning team with 90+ win upside if some things go well on the health and prospect side of things. 

[Brandon27]

Just sell the team already I heard they losing money 

[amjgt]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Totally get it. I just don't think they've been a franchise that always sells. They sold last year. Their problem is they are either a sell or do nothing franchise. They did a mini sell to get Ryan in the first place. But outside that, they really haven't done anything like a true selling team would do outside of last year. My argument would be that they should've finished that job during the offseason instead of playing the middle ground of trying to win now and rebuild when their chances of winning now are miniscule.

I agree. Over the last 5 or so trade deadlines I think they have largely done the right things (if we go back further than that I probably disagree). 

Mahle was the right move but it didn't work out.
2025 largely made sense to me.
Other years we've either done really light selling or really light buying, that I mostly agreed with the scale of.

Maybe I'm overly worried about what being a seller in 2026 would say about this franchise long term. But.... maybe my concerns are somewhat justified. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

The what ifs.. what if you get Brock Stewart and he gets injured immediately.. 

I am certain that the Dodgers are kicking themselves.  "We gave away James Outman for nothing."

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I agree. Over the last 5 or so trade deadlines I think they have largely done the right things (if we go back further than that I probably disagree). 

Mahle was the right move but it didn't work out.
2025 largely made sense to me.
Other years we've either done really light selling or really light buying, that I mostly agreed with the scale of.

Maybe I'm overly worried about what being a seller in 2026 would say about this franchise long term. But.... maybe my concerns are somewhat justified. 

I'm really not worried at all what it'd say about the franchise long-term. But I also don't think they're trading Bell or Larnach or anyone like that. Because I don't think you can actually get anything for them. Trading Ryan and Jeffers would actually make me more hopeful about the future (depending on the return). What concerns me more is not selling at all. Especially Jeffers. That'd make it really hard to convince me that this Pohlad isn't just as terrible at being an owner as the rest.

[amjgt]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What concerns me more is not selling at all. Especially Jeffers. That'd make it really hard to convince me that this Pohlad isn't just as terrible at being an owner as the rest.

I need to see a few other things play out before I determine what I think about a non-trade of Jeffers.

If, in their minds, they aren't trading Jeffers because they plan on giving him the QO, then I'm totally cool with not trading Jeffers. As part of that thought process, ideally they'd probably trade Caratini. 

I'm prepared to be happy they don't trade Jeffers, but I'm also prepared to be really annoyed. 

[Colbeh]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

If they did trade Ryan they would need mainly arms back.  Not sure what systems can accommodate that.  Most I have looked at don't have much that I would be interested in.  Maybe Atlanta as they have Cameniti in the top 100 and a couple of other arms that seem interesting.

Dodgers with Sheehan and River Ryan

Brewers are tough, they have some elite offensive prospects but not much for pitchers that can help replace Ryan. Unless they want to ship off Henderson or Harrison.

Yankees have Elmer, Lagrange, and Hess. Also Weathers and Warren that are young and already have MLB experience. None of them would really excite me so they're my least favorite

Phills have Painter who has struggled mightly so far this year, his value is lower than last year. Nothing to crazy after that, maybe Gage Wood. Im sure they've done their research on Painter from last year.

Red Sox have some pitchers but im not well versed on their guys. Maybe a Ryan + Jeffers package could let us raid 3-4 of their pitching prospects. I'd love Bennett or Tolle. Just please dont give us Bello

 

[amjgt]

2 minutes ago, Colbeh said:

Dodgers with Sheehan and River Ryan

Brewers are tough, they have some elite offensive prospects but not much for pitchers that can help replace Ryan. Unless they want to ship off Henderson or Harrison.

Yankees have Elmer, Lagrange, and Hess. Also Weathers and Warren that are young and already have MLB experience. None of them would really excite me so they're my least favorite

Phills have Painter who has struggled mightly so far this year, his value is lower than last year. Nothing to crazy after that, maybe Gage Wood. Im sure they've done their research on Painter from last year.

Red Sox have some pitchers but im not well versed on their guys. Maybe a Ryan + Jeffers package could let us raid 3-4 of their pitching prospects. I'd love Bennett or Tolle. Just please dont give us Bello

 

The Twins have done pretty well on trades where they get back a fringe MLB pitcher who was previously a good prospect but has fallen a bit out of favor with their current team.

Joe Ryan. Taj Bradley. Mick Abel. 

If they are going to be sellers, I'd love to see some trades structured like that. Reclamation projects, if you will. 

But, I'm not sure that's the type of player that they should be targeting if they trade Joe Ryan because they should probably aim higher.

[Road trip]

I'd keep Ryan until the offseason when I'd either try to sign him or trade him, but....

IF and only if the Twins want to trade Ryan, I'd be calling up Milwaukee.  The Brewers need a starter with Woodruff now out for the year.  They are in their World Series contention window, but they don't project to have a very good chance against the Dodgers in the playoffs unless they upgrade their rotation.  Their minor league system is loaded.  Could the Twins work out a deal involving Ryan for Jesus Made?  Maybe throw in another player as needed?  As good as they are, the Brewers have some holes in both their lineup and starting rotation and they really should be in "win now" mode.

[HarmonK03]

43 minutes ago, amjgt said:

The Twins have done pretty well on trades where they get back a fringe MLB pitcher who was previously a good prospect but has fallen a bit out of favor with their current team.

Joe Ryan. Taj Bradley. Mick Abel

Mick Abel has yet to do anything.  he had two good starts and then was injured.  Yes he looked good, but it is way too early to say he will work out.

Taj Bradley has done better than with Tampa, but he is still showing why they traded, just to a lesser degree.  He still has command issues and he can still be streaky.  I don't mind him at the #3 or #4 starter, but again I want to see more of this going forward before saying the trade was a success like you can with Ryan.