Twins 5, Cubs 2: Back to .500 at Last with Quality Win to Start Second Half

[jmlease1]

A very nice win to kick things off post all-star break. They needed to not come out flat, and they got it done. Ober was solid with a very good change up. Things wobbled a bit in the 6th, but they managed to settle it down and close the door.

Brooks Lee looked very good at 3B with a couple of fine defensive plays. If they get Kreidler installed at SS more regularly or Culpepper comes up soon, the defense should start looking pretty good. I'm pretty pleased with what we're seeing from Lewis at 1B too.

Just keep winning series. 

[Whitey333]

Great win Twins.  Very well played .  Impressed with Shelton as well.  Much better than Rocco. Go Twins!!

[DJL44]

It was great to watch a baseball game where the focus was on the baseball game. I found myself bored with the All Star game but I’m convinced that it is due to how they cover it. I don’t want in-game interviews, skits about the Sandlot or moments of silence about cancer that last way too long. I want to watch baseball players play the game.

[Jeff K]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Keaschall, Lee, Lewis all with nice D plays.  The young guys.

And all moving from positions where they were less successful.  So very encouraging and Shelton absolutely deserves a great deal of credit for making these moves.

[Aggies7]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It was great to watch a baseball game where the focus was on the baseball game. I found myself bored with the All Star game but I’m convinced that it is due to how they cover it. I don’t want in-game interviews, skits about the Sandlot or moments of silence about cancer that last way too long. I want to watch baseball players play the game.

All that stuff for the ASG is for the casual fans/non fans with attention spans too low for regular baseball. It’s never really interested me.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

All that stuff for the ASG is for the casual fans/non fans with attention spans too low for regular baseball. It’s never really interested me.

It is a shame because it is a great opportunity to promote the new talent and introduce them to a larger audience. Instead they seem completely uninterested in the players. Philly fans paying $1000 to boo All-Stars was another weird moment.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

And all moving from positions where they were less successful.  So very encouraging and Shelton absolutely deserves a great deal of credit for making these moves.

Not making the moves - lots of people saw the need to improve the defense. He deserves all the credit for getting the players committed to making the moves. Moving Royce Lewis off 3B has worked a lot better for Shelton than it did for Baldelli. Shelton knows the job is about managing people, not filling out the lineup card.

[Aggies7]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It is a shame because it is a great opportunity to promote the new talent and introduce them to a larger audience. Instead they seem completely uninterested in the players. Philly fans paying $1000 to boo All-Stars was another weird moment.

They’re professional haters and I’m glad walker won the derby

[shimrod]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just a small side note that doesn't really mean anything in the long run, but there was a potential out at 1B in the late innings where Lewis stretched out as far as he could to snag the ball and still keep his foot on the bag.

The runner was ruled safe. But the glove snag, and the stretch, shows me Lewis is really settling in at 1B.

The ability to make a play like that (or at least make it close) is why it baffled me the Twins gave so many 1B starts to the likes of Arraez and Solano. Length at first makes the entire infield better as it increases the margin for throws. Lewis can reach throws that would pull a smaller player off the bag, or wind up in the dugout. 

First base defense matters. Length, athleticism...all Lewis needs to do is keep adding experience and mastering the scoop.

 

[stringer bell]

Glad to see the club get back to .500. Ober continues to amaze with his low-heat mix that baffles hitters. Nance didn't look particularly good for his outing, but he got the job done. Morris and Gomez are going good right now, but they have provided good work. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just a small side note that doesn't really mean anything in the long run, but there was a potential out at 1B in the late innings where Lewis stretched out as far as he could to snag the ball and still keep his foot on the bag.

The runner was ruled safe. But the glove snag, and the stretch, shows me Lewis is really settling in at 1B.

Sometimes you look at the little things. 

Even after review on the replay screens in New York, I  still say the runner was out at first.  Lewis was wonderful in that whole sequence.  He is becoming a baseball player too. I loved that defense.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

A shout out to Matt for this beautiful piece of writing. I am currently a writer in residence for a week at Weymouth Center for the Humanities in Southern Pines, North Carolina.  Matt's writing is in the same league as other masters of the craft, Roger Angell, Roger Kahn, Thomas Boswell and Red Smith.

[rdehring]

I don't understand WPA.  But Gray had 0.90, the same as Ober.  He was 0 for 2, so I don't understand how he got plus anything? 

Yet, there is no mention of Keaschall.  All he did was go 2 for 3, plus a walk.  Add a really smart baserunning play that got their big inning started and an incredible catch that didn't allow the Cubs to get something started in the 8th. 

Maybe WPA isn't what I think it is, just don't know.

[JD-TWINS]

Keaschall had a .500 OBP in July (I think that timing is right?) and he went 2-3 with a walk last night. Eventually, with his arm, he seems like the everyday guy in LF for a few years!! Really lifted his play over last 6-7 weeks.

Lopez out for year - Ober down for a few starts - Abel gone after a handful of starts - Buxton has missed 23 games - Jeffers missed 60 games - No Festa at all ………. Wallner sucked and is essentially gone - Lewis had to be sent down………. a hell of a lot of adversity since Spring Training started!!

Tied for 6th playoff spot and .500 after 98 games. Lead AL in runs scored. Five+ runs/game on the road! They “are in it” and there’s no reason to assume anything but 2-3 games over .500 after the next 12 games. ……. gotta play the games but the last 6 of those 12 are v. A’s & Royals, at home.

I know it’s not going to be positive every outing but Bailey Ober getting guys out with the “crafty” approach is great to watch!

[JD-TWINS]

Buxton back soon - Keep Jeffers and make QO. I guess Keaschall in RF or CF (as needed) is here to stay.

If Jeffers accepts QO (doubtful) so be it ……. overpaying one guy for one year is fine to have run at playoffs for 2 years. In comparison Lopez is making $22M and won’t throw a pitch in ‘26. The payroll this year is $106M …… should see some moderate increase going forward. If Jeffers declines we get a pick that’s as good as anyone in trade this month!

I seriously consider keeping Jackson and playing him every 5th day. Caratini can play a little 1B to spell Lewis (seldom) & DH some. Jeffers can DH when not catching as well. Trade Bell? I think so - tough on Clubhouse but anyone leaving now would be.

Roden doesn’t move the needle. Gray is a stretch but probably starts 25% of the time going forward……….obviously, would love Culpepper for Gray ASAP……maybe August 1st? Culpepper for Gray and somebody else for Roden would be welcomed.

Bell & youth arm back to Washington for Zach Littell (depth), an innings eater and potential PEN guy??

[Linus]

It was fun to watch Ober do his thing - old time  pitching. Keaschall looks good in the outfield as he just lets his athleticism take over compared to second base. His OBP is crazy in the last month. Royce looks really good at first - he’s got some range and his play with pitchers covering is excellent. With more time his footwork around the bag should get even better. I am a little worried about the bat. He hit so much better after coming back up but anything spinning is giving him trouble again. My only complaint: Lee has to stop with the stolen base attempts. Aggressive baserunning is a speedier guy like Keaschall going first to third allowing the trail runner to advance to second. It does not include slow runners attempting to do things they cannot do. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Jeff K said:

And all moving from positions where they were less successful.  So very encouraging and Shelton absolutely deserves a great deal of credit for making these moves.

No shout out to the analytics department?

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

No shout out to the analytics department?

You don’t need an analytics department to tell you the defense is bad when it is that bad.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

I don't understand WPA.  But Gray had 0.90, the same as Ober.  He was 0 for 2, so I don't understand how he got plus anything? 

Yet, there is no mention of Keaschall.  All he did was go 2 for 3, plus a walk.  Add a really smart baserunning play that got their big inning started and an incredible catch that didn't allow the Cubs to get something started in the 8th. 

Maybe WPA isn't what I think it is, just don't know.

I too fail to understand the significance of WPA. It makes no sense to me.  Some body please explain it in a way a third grader can understand. Then maybe I can appreciate it.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, rdehring said:

I don't understand WPA.  But Gray had 0.90, the same as Ober.  He was 0 for 2, so I don't understand how he got plus anything? 

Yet, there is no mention of Keaschall.  All he did was go 2 for 3, plus a walk.  Add a really smart baserunning play that got their big inning started and an incredible catch that didn't allow the Cubs to get something started in the 8th. 

Maybe WPA isn't what I think it is, just don't know.

It's explained online, if you are interested. 

You don't get much value if you do stuff while your team is already ahead or behind by a lot. War is about what to do independent of that context. They measure different things. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

It was fun to watch Ober do his thing - old time  pitching. Keaschall looks good in the outfield as he just lets his athleticism take over compared to second base. His OBP is crazy in the last month. Royce looks really good at first - he’s got some range and his play with pitchers covering is excellent. With more time his footwork around the bag should get even better. I am a little worried about the bat. He hit so much better after coming back up but anything spinning is giving him trouble again. My only complaint: Lee has to stop with the stolen base attempts. Aggressive baserunning is a speedier guy like Keaschall going first to third allowing the trail runner to advance to second. It does not include slow runners attempting to do things they cannot do. 

I hear ya - for sure! However, Josh Naylor stole 30 bases last year (no speed)…….. can be done if you have a good feel…….last night he got thrown out being tagged 2-3” from the bag …….. stealing 2nd with two outs to get in scoring position for Martin…… I can live with that one. You’re right, he doesn’t seem very proficient in the running game.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, shimrod said:

The ability to make a play like that (or at least make it close) is why it baffled me the Twins gave so many 1B starts to the likes of Arraez and Solano. Length at first makes the entire infield better as it increases the margin for throws. Lewis can reach throws that would pull a smaller player off the bag, or wind up in the dugout. 

First base defense matters. Length, athleticism...all Lewis needs to do is keep adding experience and mastering the scoop.

 

France & Santana are height challenged …… last two Gold Gloves…… one can play well or one can’t play as well. Steve Garvey was OK at 1B.

Arraez & Solano could HIT better than any other options so 1B becomes the default spot for guys w/o range and swinging a good bat.

[rdehring]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's explained online, if you are interested. 

You don't get much value if you do stuff while your team is already ahead or behind by a lot. War is about what to do independent of that context. They measure different things. 

Thanks, Mike.  Went and read it which left me scratching my head.  If I understand it isn't meant to rate players individually.  At least I think it said that.

As for Gray last night, I still don't understand how he got a +0.90.  The only thing he did was hit into what should have been a double play which didn't happen because of Keashall's baserunning.    

I guess I am still confused and don't understand why people writing articles here are using it.  To the uninformed, one would think that Gray had as much to do with the Twins win as Ober.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I too fail to understand the significance of WPA. It makes no sense to me.  Some body please explain it in a way a third grader can understand. Then maybe I can appreciate it.

Don’t bother. It is a total garbage stat that does a terrible job of assigning credit to individual players. Just look at the chart and ignore the assigned player values.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Thanks, Mike.  Went and read it which left me scratching my head.  If I understand it isn't meant to rate players individually.  At least I think it said that.

As for Gray last night, I still don't understand how he got a +0.90.  The only thing he did was hit into what should have been a double play which didn't happen because of Keashall's baserunning.    

I guess I am still confused and don't understand why people writing articles here are using it.  To the uninformed, one would think that Gray had as much to do with the Twins win as Ober.

There are definite issues with the stat. It cannot measure that baserunning, for example. It only knows the outcome of the play, not why it came that way. 

It really is meant to measure how clutch a player was in the moment. For example, if the Twins score 8 runs in the first, but Lewis makes two outs that inning, and then hits four home runs later, he likely has zero wpa. But he has lots of positive war. Wpa figures what he did didn't matter that game, war measures value independent of the context, because it's trying to measure seasonal value. 

[Matt Braun]

2 hours ago, rdehring said:

I don't understand WPA.  But Gray had 0.90, the same as Ober.  He was 0 for 2, so I don't understand how he got plus anything? 

Yet, there is no mention of Keaschall.  All he did was go 2 for 3, plus a walk.  Add a really smart baserunning play that got their big inning started and an incredible catch that didn't allow the Cubs to get something started in the 8th. 

Maybe WPA isn't what I think it is, just don't know.

It looks like he's getting a bunch of credit for the error in third inning. In WPA's view, he moved the runner to third and placed himself at first, turning a situation where a run was possible, but unlikely, into one where a run was extremely likely to score. Should he actually get credit for that? I don't think so. But that's the logic. 

[Matt Braun]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

A shout out to Matt for this beautiful piece of writing. I am currently a writer in residence for a week at Weymouth Center for the Humanities in Southern Pines, North Carolina.  Matt's writing is in the same league as other masters of the craft, Roger Angell, Roger Kahn, Thomas Boswell and Red Smith.

That's far too kind a compliment to be placed among those masters but I appreciate being appreciated. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

It looks like he's getting a bunch of credit for the error in third inning. In WPA's view, he moved the runner to third and placed himself at first, turning a situation where a run was possible, but unlikely, into one where a run was extremely likely to score. Should he actually get credit for that? I don't think so. But that's the logic. 

Ya. A definite weakness of the stat. The play greatly increased the odds of the twins winning, so someone has to get credit..... But I'm not in love with how this works. But it's really hard to build models to measure every possible play in a sport. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I hear ya - for sure! However, Josh Naylor stole 30 bases last year (no speed)…….. can be done if you have a good feel…….last night he got thrown out being tagged 2-3” from the bag …….. stealing 2nd with two outs to get in scoring position for Martin…… I can live with that one. You’re right, he doesn’t seem very proficient in the running game.

One little difference: Naylor doesn’t get thrown out and Brooks does. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You don’t need an analytics department to tell you the defense is bad when it is that bad.

You don't need some grizzled, avuncular figure in the dugout to tell you how to improve the defense.

See how that works? 🙃