5 Things You Can Count On in the Second Half of the Minnesota Twins Season

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of © Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

In some ways, this Twins season has gone perfectly according to expectation. They are on pace to finish just below .500, which is exactly where sites like FanGraphs projected. They are being led by the same two All-Stars from last year in Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. The rotation's been pretty good, the bullpen's been pretty bad. None of this would have shocked me if you told me in March.

But the way they've gotten here has been full of surprises: dramatic ups and downs, breakthrough offensive performances, elite production with runners in scoring position. It's a mercurial ballclub, and that makes it hard to predict what lies ahead in the final 10 weeks of the 2026 season.

With that said, there are a few things coming that I do feel confident in asserting. Strap in, because I believe these five outcomes are inevitable:

The offense's run-scoring productivity will slow down (unless hitters improve fundamentally).

Minnesota's AL-leading run total (471) is largely a byproduct of their opportunistic nature: they are slashing .286/.368/.451 with RISP for an .820 OPS that is 80 points higher than their overall baseline. That's great, but it's not predictive. 

Regression is coming. Unless they can improve their overall hitting proficiency — and that's perfectly plausible if guys like Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall can build on what they've been doing lately — the Twins are going to gravitate downward in run-scoring, possibly to a range reflecting their 20th-ranked .314 xwOBA.

The Tigers will make a push.

In recent years, Detroit has proven to be the streakiest of streaky teams. They were heavily favored to win the division, but got off to a stunningly bad start and have been buried near the bottom of the AL Central. History tells us they were bound to counteract their multi-month slump and they've already begun to do so, drawing back toward the pack with nine wins in their past 12 games. 

With the Tigers being non-factors in the first half, Cleveland and Chicago have battled for first place while hovering around .500, and the Twins are just a few games out. The idea of any of these teams being front-runners is premised on Detroit remaining dormant. I wouldn't bet on that. Whoever wins this division is going to have to make a stand against the Tigers.

The Twins will do something weird at the trade deadline.

Expect the unexpected. With three weeks to go, it's not clear whether the Twins will be buyers or sellers. They very well might blur the line. The front office is balancing the realities of an ongoing rebuild with the mandate to build faith among fans, and act on an undeniable opportunity in this watered-down American League. 

Ryan Jeffers and Josh Bell are impending free agents. Trevor Larnach is blossoming at a position of depth. Joe Ryan's trade value will never be higher. On the flip side, you've got a farm system that was freshly restocked by last year's firesale and a new draft class. 

I can't pretend to know what kind of shenanigans they've got in store. But I do feel confident in saying it'll be an eventful and surprising deadline.

The pitching staff will be tested.

Mick Abel and Anthony Banda aren't coming back. David Festa might not either. Connor Prielipp is already venturing into career-high workload territory. Bailey Ober is back from injury but throwing 87 MPH. Even Minnesota's All-Star ace Joe Ryan is looking to prove something by finishing a season without wearing down. 

In the bullpen, Derek Shelton has leaned hard on waiver pickup Yoendrys Gómez and rookie Andrew Morris to scrape by. Mike Paredes has delivered beyond any reasonable expectation thus far. These guys will be hard-pressed to maintain like this, and that's not a knock against them.

The Twins pitching staff hasn't been great overall, allowing the seventh-most runs in baseball in the first half, but it has held together. We'll really see their resilience tested in the final months. Is help coming via trade?

The Twins will play meaningful baseball in September.

It doesn't take a whole lot of starry-eyed optimism to reach this conclusion. Yes, the Twins have a similar record to this time last year, but two things are different: the division and league are worse, and there's no chance they team is going to offload talent like last year, which led to playing 16 games below .500 in August and September. 

I do expect some of the slumbering giants in the AL to come alive down the stretch, including the Tigers as mentioned above. But Detroit has work to do, still nine games away from a winning record. The existence of three wild-card spots — last of which Minnesota is currently tied for — will make it hard to fall completely out of the running before the start of September, unless the the Twins fall off a cliff or multiple mid-range teams get extremely hot. Could happen, but not likely. 

What's likely is that the Twins will fulfill Tom Pohlad's preseason proclamation. "Let's judge the success of this year on wins and losses, on whether we're playing meaningful baseball in September," he said in late January. And even if that's a somewhat lukewarm definition of contention, the words that followed are what matter most: "If we're doing that, I think we're gonna be in position to grow payroll the following year, and the following year. That's what I hope we can start focusing on."

I'm ready to focus on that. The Twins have begun to build something in the first half of this 2026 season and they arrived at the break playing great ball. Now the hard part begins: sustaining success, growing momentum, and turning this into something real. 

Can they do it? That part is anyone's guess. But at this point I wouldn't put it past them.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

How soon can I buy my playoff tickets and where is a good hotel in Minneapolis where I can stay?

[Jeff K]

I was not aware that Able was ruled out for the season.  Is that real?

[mike8791]

I think you nailed it on a key point: this surprising offense is bound to decelerate.  You look at the presumed starters and wonder how guys like Clemens, Kreidler, Larnach can maintain their performance  given their past history  Add in the erratic performances of Lee and Lewis and one wonders who are going to be the run producers in this lineup, especially with the added high probability of Jeffers being traded.

As you noted,  the rotation is not the strength envisioned back in April.  Depth is gone and big questions remain on Ober and Prielipp.  If Ryan(assuming he is not traded) and Bradley can maintain their all star performances and Mathews figures out how to keep the ball in the ballpark this will not be a bad rotation, but again, some regression seems more likely.  Coupled with a very shaky pen, where only Gomez and Morris seem dependable, overall pitching is not going to carry this team to the playoffs.  And how will those two hold up in the heat of a pennant race?

Yes, the Twins could remain in "contention" in September but regression to the mean seems more likely, especially with Detroit's strong rebound.  If I had some faith in Zoll to succeed at the trade deadline or TP to put money where his mouth is and acquire some major league ready relievers, the outlook could be improved considerably, but realistically, history says otherwise.

[Whitey333]

Well they recently put Abel on the 60 day disabled list so unfortunately it pretty much ends his season.  I was sure wrong about the Twins so far.  I suggested at the start of season they woild be battling the White Sox for last place.  We'll they are battling the Sox for first place.  Go Twins.

[Peter]

It’s going to be 4 team race for division title going down to last game of the season!!! As I’ve said before twins are must watch every game!!! Football can wait!!! Have feeling twins win division!!!

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

29 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I was not aware that Able was ruled out for the season.  Is that real?

I didn't realize that either. I knew that Abel had surgery, but I don't recall reading any updates about when or if he would be coming back this season. 

[tony&rodney]

The article is correct that predictions are difficult. We can process some factors that brought the team to their current condition. In my opinion the greatest of these has been the shifting of players to different positions on the field. The eight players who defended on Opening Day represent the old. These guys were given every opportunity to hold their positions with their performances. There have been wholesale changes. Even a casual fan can see the dramatic difference in the field play of the current squad versus the April version. Those who are enamored with analytics can see the change in those numbers. A look:

Ryan Jeffers went down and both Caratini and Jackson are better catchers. Jeffers is the better bat. I expect he will be traded unless there isn't a market to return anything decent. It looks like several teams want Jeffers but there isn't any reason to trade him for a player like Funderburk or Wallner.

Brooks Lee has very little range as a shortstop. That was no secret. Luckily, Royce Lewis was floundering badly and needed a reset at AAA. Lee was moved to third base where he is adequate. Royce Lewis returned and is a far better first baseman than he was at third base. He needs to become a consistent batsman. Meanwhile shortstop has been improved. Kriedler is decent and Gray is better than Lee. Both are placeholders for Kaelen Culpepper who has been injured. We should expect him in August.

Kody Clemens began to hit and moved Josh Bell to DH. Clemens plays a fair first base, which was quite an improvement over Bell. When Lewis returned, Clemens moved to right field. All of the players coursing through that corner were a vast improvement on the worst outfielder in baseball. Then when the Twins could no longer tolerate the hapless arm and generally poor defense of Luke Keaschall at second base, the Twins flipped Clemens to second base and Luke to the outfield. The slow response to a batted ball was a base hit against Keaschall in the infield, but a bit similar to Buxton, Keaschall can run the ball down in the outfield.

Byron has continued to be a good centerfielder, just not among the best but still the man. Hopefully Byron can stay on the field and pick back up at the plate with a fantastic season.

Trevor Larnach has had a good year and he will need to continue his hitting to hold his position. His glove, while improved, is still not up to a needed standard. I do believe the team can roster one below average glove that hits.

The position side of the roster may get a boost with Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins. They will need a full three weeks of injury free good performances at AAA before they get the call though. In the meantime Roden and Kreidler are getting an opportunity.

Derek Shelton and his staff have done a terrific job of shifting the pieces of the roster around to put a vastly improved product on the field with basically most of the same players. Considering the personalities and egos of athletes this is a very difficult task and the coaching staff has managed the challenges adroitly. Credit must also go to the players for buying in. The records of the 2025 and 2026 teams may be similar but this current group is so much more fun to watch and look to be improving. I'm really excited to see how everything unfolds through the remainder of the season, especially the next couple of weeks.

[killercarewoliva]

42 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I was not aware that Able was ruled out for the season.  Is that real?

unfortunately, yes, that is true. I think the guy is going to be phenomenal and very enjoyable to watch on the mound. it's a great loss.

[killercarewoliva]

22 minutes ago, Peter said:

It’s going to be 4 team race for division title going down to last game of the season!!! As I’ve said before twins are must watch every game!!! Football can wait!!! Have feeling twins win division!!!

every team has injuries but this team just mounds one on top of another. it's amazing they have the record they do considering that. there are qualified outfielters in AAA and to improve the bullpen you have to give something to get something. so in order for even one of them to come up you have to trade or somebody gets hurt or they're not coming up until September. Roden Will be on the bench when Buxton returns. Larnake has worked hard and has a improved season. so the only way to get a good reliever is to trade a good player. there are several I think could do well in left field and maybe a good 2.90 era. reliever could be acquired. All the good pitching Major League ready seems to already be up due to injuries.

[BrokenCompass]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

I was not aware that Able was ruled out for the season.  Is that real?

Yep, read the rules: If the Twins make a big trade, the arms they get in return always blow out their arms almost immediately. 

[chpettit19]

I think these are all very real possibilities. More order of confidence that they happen would be:

1. Pitching staff will be tested
2. The offense will slow to some extent
3. Tigers will make a push (Skubal decision is such a toss-up)
4. They'll have an eventful deadline
5. They'll play meaningful September baseball

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1. The offense might slow down a bit, but will remain one of the top offenses in MLB.   1 of the biggest outperformers with RISP has been Bell.  He is slashing .343/.391/.636.   He has hunted those RBI -  The biggest thing he hasn't tried to do to much.   He just tries to put the ball in play when runners are on.   What Bell is doing like last year is he is really beginning to heat up.   So there may be a regression to the mean,  or Bell warming up and getting into groove will allow the stats to remain high.   You have multiple other hitters really hitting their stride hitting.  Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Larnach in the mid tier. Guys who have always had talent.  The Twins stopped coddling Lewis and allowing Lewis to just do things his way.  He has started to get confident again and he is ripping the ball.  Clemens since May has been extremely consistent.   Larnach has been solid all year and really finding his home as the #1 hitter.  Jeffers is back and Buxton had some time to get healthy.  

2. Tigers may make a push but will still be sellers.  They face Angels (weak), Cubs (good), KC (weak), Orioles  (average).  Before the deadline.  That is a schedule they could make a run with but ultimately they have never been a cohesive team this year.  They are the 2025 Twins.  They will then trade Skubal ending any possibility of them making a push.  

3.  Twins will be buyers at the deadline (*).   Unless they go 3 games under 500 in the next 12 games,  Tom wants this team to win so badly to keep his word to players and fans (even though the fans I wouldn't worry about- they are fickle).  I see them buying throughout the next 2 weeks just like they did with Nance.   I expect 2 more relievers - 1 average and 1 high leverage.  The question is will they get another starter.  Personally I say yes but I will discuss next point.  

4.  Pitching staff with reinforcements will continue to produce Viable results.   Pitching is as reliant on defense as it is pitching.  Kreidler manning the SS position and providing excellent defense with Lee at 3rd, Clemens at 2nd and Lewis at 1st is providing average to above average defense in the infield which is something the Twins haven't done in while.  This is taking some stress off.  

The bullpen has been headed by Gomez and Morris the last month or two.  Relievers can fall off but what these 2 are doing is not smoke and mirrors.  Gomez has effectively gone to 3 pitches that tunnel well together - the fastball, slider that tails away from the right hander and the cutter that cuts in.   Just like Ryan and Bradley,  the Twins have elevated Gomez fastball effectiveness after coming over from the Rays.   Morris is just finding himself.  As much as we miss Varland,  in 17 innings since June 3rd Morris has effectively been unhittable with a .53 whip.   He seems to be getting stronger and not tailing off.  Reinforcements are coming.  Nance will be with the team after the break and it appears Sands with improved velocity (back to 2025 levels) will be joining the team as well.  The bullpen will appear to have 4 solid arms as of now - and then supplement with Go, Funderburk, Rogers and pick who else.  I think Coulombe will be added in the next 48 hours adding another arm.  Assuming buyers as stated above - They add another high leverage arm at minimum.  You never know how they will work together but that looks like a solid bullpen. 

SP -  This is being led by Ryan and Bradley.   Another additional #3 pitcher would really help but we currently have 4 arms filling the 3 starter position.  Ober, Priellip, Matthews and Paredes.  Using the schedule and skipping starts I think they can keep those 4 performing well down the stretch.  The only concern I would have is injury.  As long as that doesn't occur I think they are fine.  Ryan in past seasons has begun losing a bit in later July.   His current July stats are looking really good.  He had a couple rough starts to end June but he has added some additional tweaks that should allow him to continue to deceive and be a #1 pitcher through the remaining dog days of summer.  A #3 pitcher would drastically help morale - give them reinforcement and could possibly give you a 3 headed monster to head into the postseason with.  

5. They will play meaningful baseball in Sept.  My biggest concern about the sell off last year was that it could create a losing culture in the clubhouse.   We are seeing zero of that.  What we are seeing is a team that is beginning to get confident.   Many of the highly drafted players are beginning to fulfill their potential and we have coach that seems to be pushing the right buttons.  Maybe they come up short,  but this team will have played entertaining baseball which is what I said they needed to do.   

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Well they recently put Abel on the 60 day disabled list so unfortunately it pretty much ends his season.  I was sure wrong about the Twins so far.  I suggested at the start of season they woild be battling the White Sox for last place.  We'll they are battling the Sox for first place.  Go Twins.

Putting a player who has already been out for 60 days says nothing when he will be ready to play again. Abel had surgery and it is obvious he won't be back soon, but an August or September return is possible and I think the Twins are planning on it as long as they are credibly in the race. 

[Nshore]

If I may again obsess about the Varland trade for a moment... In a race like this, it may very well come down to just a game or two difference at the end.  The Twins have already lost multiple games they should have and would have won with Varland at the back end of the pen.  It will come back to bite them. 

Rojas and Roden better be good.........someday.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

I was not aware that Able was ruled out for the season.  Is that real?

Perhaps a bit of editorializing on my end but I do not expect him back for any consequential amount of time this season. 

[mnfireman]

From MLB.com Twins injuries page:

 

RHP Mick Abel
Injury: Right elbow inflammation
IL date: April 20 (retroactive to April 17; transferred to 60-day IL on July 10)
Expected return: TBD
Status: Underwent surgery on July 1; club is encouraged by how it went. Timetable to come after followup evaluation. (Last updated: July 10) More >>

Nothing in that paragraph states that the team expects him to miss the rest of the season. The length of injury and the need for a roster spot necessitated the move from the 15 day IL to 60 day IL.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

How soon can I buy my playoff tickets and where is a good hotel in Minneapolis where I can stay?

We had good luck in '23 at motels near the Mall of America and then traveling by light rail to the ballpark.  Have fun!

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Nothing on this list would surprise me. I'm hoping #5 comes to fruition. After last year's deadline and sell off, it would be good a feeling to see the Twins in the mix in September.

[Parfigliano]

13 minutes ago, ashbury said:

We had good luck in '23 at motels near the Mall of America and then traveling by light rail to the ballpark.  Have fun!

That's what we do.  My wife's sister and son live in Bloomington I think that has a lot to do with it.

[bryceboylehoban]

I've started to reach an inner peace on however the season goes. Seems like there are two scenarios:

A.) Twins keep playing well and add at the deadline. At worst, we get playoff race and at best, they end up in the postseason. October baseball is awesome. Whether they get in at 81-81 or win the division with a 101 wins a la 2019, it don't matter to me. Just get in. 

OR

B.) They falter on the road trip out of the gate and don't recover. They sell high on Ryan and Jeffers and a few others and add to farm system that now boasts Jenkins, Lackey, Culpepper, E-rod, and a rising Houston. If they play their cards right on another sell, they could end up with a top 3 farm system with essentially everyone in their top 10 ready to contribute by 2028.

I can live with either of these. Especially because keeping Ryan and Jeffers provides opportunity in the off season (trade Ryan then or offer a contract, offer Jeffers QO). So even if they miss the postseason after buying, there is still ways to recoup value on them.