DeDuno

[DaveW]

At what point can we pencil in DeDuno as a solid option for us in the future? Could be a solid #4.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He's fascinating and only seems to become moreso in time. All of his peripherals are showing improvement over last season except strikeouts, where he's turned into Nick-freakin-Blackburn.

 

I don't get it. I just enjoy watching him pitch and leave it at that. Predicting what he'll do next is a good way to drive yourself crazy, I think.

[jorgenswest]

His 61.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts. Masterson follows him among AL pitchers at 57.8%. If he can keep the ground ball rate and walk rate and improve his strike out rate, he will be better than a number 4 starter. I am not confident he can maintain his walk rate.

[Nick Nelson]

Opponents against Deduno this year: .254/.325/.365. Regardless of the rest of your peripherals, you're almost assured to be effective if opponents have a sub-700 OPS against you.

 

This has always been his strength. He gets wild and hands out way too many walks from time to time, but he doesn't get hit hard.

 

Very refreshing when compared to the rest of this rotation. I can't say I'm totally surprised because I've been a proponent of his for some time now, but Deduno's emergence has certainly helped offset the disappointment surrounding Worley and Diamond, who we all hoped could prove themselves this year as legit options going forward.

[Brad Swanson]

All of his pitches break downward. I can see how he manages to induce so many ground balls. I'm still not sold on him as a long-term option, but it's a wild ride and should be fun while it lasts.

[Chance]

My absolute favorite thing about Deduno is his passion. He wears it all on his sleeve and it's exciting to watch. He takes each hit and walk personally and expects more from himself. People like that often have a good chance of making it.

 

Plus, he is so fun to watch.

[Thegrin]

Last night was great fun. We are lucky to have Deduno. He reminds me a little of Dave Stewart. 30 years old when he emerged as a top starter. He is the only pitcher that I expect to win (and keep my fingers crossed while watching.)

[nicksaviking]

His 61.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts. Masterson follows him among AL pitchers at 57.8%. If he can keep the ground ball rate and walk rate and improve his strike out rate, he will be better than a number 4 starter. I am not confident he can maintain his walk rate.

 

With the movement on his pitches, you'd think if the groundball % decreases, it would likely be the strikeout % that increases.

 

Can anyone provide a reasonable analysis as to why his K% is so low when he has stuff any objective viewer would call "unhittable?" Is it an anomoly due to a small sample size? Are teams laying off his pitches knowing his stuff is wild? You would think this wouldn't occur with his thus far reasonable walk rate.

[markos]

Deduno's name can be penciled in at the same place where Diamond's name was last year at this time. I really hope he turns out better than Diamond has.

[Brad Swanson]

With the movement on his pitches, you'd think if the groundball % decreases, it would likely be the strikeout % that increases.

 

Can anyone provide a reasonable analysis as to why his K% is so low when he has stuff any objective viewer would call "unhittable?" Is it an anomoly due to a small sample size? Are teams laying off his pitches knowing his stuff is wild? You would think this wouldn't occur with his thus far reasonable walk rate.

 

I think this comes down to his fastball. Most pitchers establish their fastball and use secondary pitches to generate strikeouts. Deduno's fastball has life, but he can't command it at all. If he can't establish his fastball in the zone, he can't set up batters using pitch progression and he cant really change speeds and locations effectively. But, his fastball looks good enough to hit, so he generates swings and weak contact.

 

That's how I see it anyway.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

And we haven't even got to enjoy the times when Sam Deduno is at his best: GAMES ON THE BIGGEST STAGE.

 

He'll be making a tick over the league minimum next year, so I'll write him with (erasable) pen into the Twins rotation.

[nicksaviking]

Checking Fangraphs, I notice some strange things. First and strangely, if Deduno qulified, he would be leading the league in giving up the highest contact rate for pitches thrown in the strike zone and surprisingly, he would be among the top 30 in leaders for getting pitches in the strike zone.

 

He is in the bottom 30 for contact on pitches outside of the zone however he only gets swings on 22.8% of his pitches outside of the zone while the lowest qualified pitcher is at 24.3%, a full percentage and a half more than Deduno.

 

From watching the games, his fastball seems to be more uncontrollable than his curve or changeup, but it is also a 5.5 run above average pitch while the curve and changeup are below average. With the better control on the curve and change up, those are the pitches that are more often finding the zone, which as I stated above, people are making contact with. The fastball is the pitch that is leaving the zone, and no one is making contact with his pitches out of the zone but lucky for the batters, they are also laying off these pitches an unusually high amount of the time.

 

With this information, is it possible he is tipping his pitches and everyone is sitting on the curve and/or changeup knowing they will be the pitches most likely over the plate?

 

One last interesting tidbit from Fangraphs. They track pitches that are catagorized as "unknown" type. The qualified league leader is Andrew Cashner who's pitches are unknown 6.5% of the time. Deduno throws an unidentifiable pitch 9.5% of the time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

What I wonder about Deduno is if his drop in K-rate is somethign he's done. If it is, I'd think he could revert back to old tendancies in pitchers counts, which would bring up that K-rate and make him even better.

 

Like others said, I think at this point, he's earned a rotation spot next to Gibson next year, but like Diamond, it can be removed if he fails.

[beckmt]

I enjoy watching him, and yes I would pencil him into next years rotation, and I said pencil.

[Siehbiscuit]

I think @Nick Nelson nailed it with this, "He gets wild and hands out way too many walks from time to time, but he doesn't get hit hard."

 

In theory, Deduno could walk 3 guys per inning and not give up a run. Whereas guys like, Diamond or Blackburn give up tons of hard hit balls that result in not just singles but extra bases.

 

Hits are worse than walks. Let's have a little more of the controlled chaos!!!

[ThePuck]

I think @Nick Nelson nailed it with this, "He gets wild and hands out way too many walks from time to time, but he doesn't get hit hard."

 

In theory, Deduno could walk 3 guys per inning and not give up a run. Whereas guys like, Diamond or Blackburn give up tons of hard hit balls that result in not just singles but extra bases.

 

Hits are worse than walks. Let's have a little more of the controlled chaos!!!

 

We got this cult thing going on with this team where walking batter to start the inning is like the worst thing ever. As if a leadoff single in an inning isn't as likely to score as a leadoff walk. Actually, it's any walk, but a leadoff walk? THE HORROR!

[whatever54]

Kind of impossible not to have him penciled in to the '14 rotation, who's the competition, what better 5 are going to put out there?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It's hard to get an extra base hit off Deduno. That's the key. He'll give up the walks and singles, but HRs and doubles are pretty rare. You have to beat him

"piranha style". I agree with the OP that he looks like a 4 or possibly a 5. I pretty much all but guarantee he'll be in the 2014 rotation. The only way I don't see him starting next year is if he gets injured again.

[Riverbrian]

I'm already sold on Deduno... I'm not concerned in the slightest. Deduno will be in the stsrting rotation in 2014.

 

I'll wait for the rest of you to join me.

[notoriousgod71]

I have far more faith in Deduno than Blackburn... er.... Diamond.

[E. Andrew]

One last interesting tidbit from Fangraphs. They track pitches that are catagorized as "unknown" type. The qualified league leader is Andrew Cashner who's pitches are unknown 6.5% of the time. Deduno throws an unidentifiable pitch 9.5% of the time.

 

I was laughing about that. According to pitchf/x, his 4-seam vs. cutter usage is just all over the board... I think he just winds up and hurls some kind of hybrid as hard as he can haha.

 

Edit: Here are the numbers...

[Monkeypaws]

He certainly is the most entertaining Twins pitcher to watch these last few seasons, and not for opposing teams' fans.

[AROG]

With the movement on his pitches, you'd think if the groundball % decreases, it would likely be the strikeout % that increases.

 

Can anyone provide a reasonable analysis as to why his K% is so low when he has stuff any objective viewer would call "unhittable?" Is it an anomoly due to a small sample size? Are teams laying off his pitches knowing his stuff is wild? You would think this wouldn't occur with his thus far reasonable walk rate.

 

Last year Deduno pitched to the corners and so his pitches either went from their into the middle of the strike zone or dove away from it. That lead to a lot more strike outs but also getting hit a lot harder and more walks. This year he is throwing at the middle and the ball is diving to either corner. The result is more strikes, less walks, less strike outs and a lot less hard hit balls.

 

His contact rate is high, because they hit weak ground balls. I was sold on Deduno early. He has the stuff, he has the heart, give me those two things and you will have a competitive game each time out.

[Oxtung]

I think we're having this seasons Diamond conversation about Deduno next season.

[AROG]

I think we're having this seasons Diamond conversation about Deduno next season.

 

So you're saying Deduno is going to need elbow surgery that will weaken the muscles that allow one to control their pitches? You're negativity isn't unwarranted, we have been done this road of hope before, but I believe this one is different.

[E. Andrew]

 

This is the target, every time. No one in the picture knows where it's going. I bet Mauer actually gets a kick out of it, nice change of pace from the pure strategy approach of Correja and Pelfrey.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think we're having this seasons Diamond conversation about Deduno next season.

I tend to agree. I hope we're both way wrong.

[drjim]

I tend to agree. I hope we're both way wrong.

 

I think there is nothing wrong with having him in the rotation to start the year. Could be a bridge to Meyer or May.

 

Or he could take a step forward. Random pitchers click for a couple seasons from time to time with no real explanation.

[Guest USAFChief]

I think there is nothing wrong with having him in the rotation to start the year. Could be a bridge to Meyer or May.

 

Or he could take a step forward. Random pitchers click for a couple seasons from time to time with no real explanation.

I'd say at this point, there's almost no chance he isn't in the rotation to start 2014 (barring injury, of course.) Much like Diamond, circa this point of the season in 2012 was always going to be a part of the 2013 rotation.

 

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. But if I was forced to bet, I'd bet against him ever being any kind of long term asset.

[TheLeviathan]

So you're saying Deduno is going to need elbow surgery that will weaken the muscles that allow one to control their pitches? You're negativity isn't unwarranted, we have been done this road of hope before, but I believe this one is different.

 

I like Deduno and watching him pitch is usually far less painful than our normal pitching options, but the comparison to Diamond is fair. Diamond's issues this year can't be pinned down to an elbow surgery for sure. The truth is, he was a prime regression candidate long before we learned of that.

 

Deduno's success is linked to a pitching repetoire he's open about having limited control of. And while that has worked strongly in his favor this year, it isn't hard to imagine how negatively it could work against him as well.

 

He's fun to watch pitch, I hope he keeps this going, but his profile of success is a little more difficult to rely on.