Twins Prospect Hot Sheet: It's Time for Walker Jenkins’s MLB Debut

[Danchat]

Yeah... as already mentioned an .825 OPS at AAA is passable, but certainly not impressive with the way other hitters are crushing that level. I know it's not a popular take, but I'm fine with the choice of keeping Jenkins at AAA for the full season.

On the other hand, I want to see Culpepper up when healthy at latest by the time the trade deadline is over. Rodriguez needs to be up once he is healed up just to get a taste in case he is out of options next year. Roden should already be up, and Mendez should be a September call-up given he is already on the 40 man and using up an option year. Time to figure out what we have, but I don't think we need to rush Jenkins. He should be an early call-up once the strike is over, whichever year that is.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

I am having a hard time believing they will burn any of his service time this year. especially with the upcoming strike. I would imagine he would accrue service time if he is on the roster during the strike, which the Twins will not want.

The thing is, no one at all knows what service time will count for with the next cba. Plus, I can’t imagine any players actually burn their service time during a lockout. 
 

[farmerguychris]

Other than being our top prospect, I don't see how he's done anything more than the others to deserve a call up yet.  

[Charleo]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

You have to trade Joe Ryan,  however will teams be willing to trade potential for a half season of Joe Ryan and give commensurate value in return.  That is the only question in my mind.   

It's a year and a half.  He's not eligible for free agency until after 2027.   Makes him incredibly valuable as a trade asset.

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Charleo said:

It's a year and a half.  He's not eligible for free agency until after 2027.   Makes him incredibly valuable as a trade asset.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/which-trade-candidates-would-be-most-affected-by-a-lockout

Players with 1 1/2 years of service time could have less trade value due to the potential lockout.  Joe Ryan is one of the specific players mentioned as being the most effected.   

[tony&rodney]

Those counting on 2027 baseball being cancelled are looking for bad luck and knocking on wood. If 2027 MLB goes missing we won't have to worry about service time again.

Joe Ryan has a year and a half. Unless a team is willing to send "real top prospects" Ryan should be retained. We could throw names around but it is really very premature until the last 5 days before the trading deadline.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, nclahammer said:

I don't quite understand all the hype regarding Walker Jenkins.   He's always been ranked highly, but his numbers in the minor leagues (when healthy) have been good at times, but by no means ever great.   Saw him play for the St, Paul Saints on Sunday and had one good swing for a base hit in four at bats and his AAA stats this year are okay, but nothing video-game like.  Over-hyped IMHO.

You are mistaken in your assessment of Jenkins.  Time will prove you wrong.  Jenkins will prove you wrong. We will just have to agree to disagree on this issue. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/which-trade-candidates-would-be-most-affected-by-a-lockout

Players with 1 1/2 years of service time could have less trade value due to the potential lockout.  Joe Ryan is one of the specific players mentioned as being the most effected.   

Affected.

[greglw333]

For all those doubting if Walker Jenkins is worthy of a callup or think he hasn’t distinguished himself enough, let’s look at the facts:

In 859 At Bats in the minors here are Jenkins numbers:

255 hits

53 doubles

12 triples

24 home runs

130 RBIs

47 Stolen bases

Batting average .297

On Base Percentage .400

Slugging percentage: .470

OPS: .871

Since returning from injury recently, he’s hitting .314.

That’s where he’s at.

As for .200 point drops from AAA to MLB, there have been lots of players,  who hit much better in MLB than the minors. I watched Kirby Puckett in Toledo AAA hit in the upper .230s and then just up into the lower .240s before his callup and then he started off with a beyond scintillating stretch and never looked back.

As far as slow starts, it’s not that relevant if you have the talent. I submit that very few hitters could show a hitting line in 800+ AB like the one I showed above.

Examples of players that got off to wretched starts in MLB but were great prospects are Robin Ventura, who started something like 1/41 but then grew into a perennial strong hitter and gold glove caliber player.

Willie Mays started his career 1 for 26, starting 0 for 12, hitting a home run and then going 0 for 13 after that.

No player is a certainty but you need to look at his pedigree. Some great prospects flop. I’ve watched some Saints games and I like what I see of his swing.

[Twins GFP]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The thing is, no one at all knows what service time will count for with the next cba. Plus, I can’t imagine any players actually burn their service time during a lockout. 
 

Upon further investigation, it looks like no service time is accrued during a lock out. However, as was mentioned elsewhere, MiLB players will continue to play during the lockout unless they have been called up. This will clog up calling up the prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/articles/which-trade-candidates-would-be-most-affected-by-a-lockout

Players with 1 1/2 years of service time could have less trade value due to the potential lockout.  Joe Ryan is one of the specific players mentioned as being the most effected.   

That makes zero sense. He's worth LESS than a guy with only half a year? The possiblity he goes more is worth negative worth? No. That's not how options work in the financial world.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That makes zero sense. He's worth LESS than a guy with only half a year? The possiblity he goes more is worth negative worth? No. That's not how options work in the financial world.

Not what I’m sayin at all. They may only value him being worth 1 season or 3/4 of a season due to uncertainty with next year. Maybe they get full value from someone going for it this year.  Who knows.  

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That makes zero sense. He's worth LESS than a guy with only half a year? The possiblity he goes more is worth negative worth? No. That's not how options work in the financial world.

Play around with numbers long enough and you can get really confused. The trade value site has mastered that, but they were close on a couple once upon a time. The Wizard behind the curtain.

[twinstalker]

19 hours ago, nclahammer said:

I don't quite understand all the hype regarding Walker Jenkins.   He's always been ranked highly, but his numbers in the minor leagues (when healthy) have been good at times, but by no means ever great.   Saw him play for the St, Paul Saints on Sunday and had one good swing for a base hit in four at bats and his AAA stats this year are okay, but nothing video-game like.  Over-hyped IMHO.

Well, here you go:  he's striking out 15.5% of the time at AAA this year at age 21.  Not sexy?  Do you want 15 HRs?  Well, if he had 15 HRs and a 22% strikeout rate, it wouldn't be nearly as good.  Because MLB pitchers would figure him out much more easily than they will as he is now.  These days there is a baseline K-rate for 98% of the players that is somewhere around 12% (it's an educated guess).  Therefore, a 15% K rate can be thought of as twice as good as an 18% K rate.  Now, if you're twice or three time better than most good prospects with the lead predictor, that bodes really well.

Jenkins' statcast data is all very good/great with the exception of pulling the ball in the air percent, and his swing and zone swing pcts show he is patient, not aggressive (but not passive like EmRod).  He ranks 100th %ile for FanGraphs based on statcast data.  Kaelen Culpepper ranks in the 98.33 %ile, but keep in mind most players are simply not real prospects, so two points is very meaningful, and Culpepper's ranking is decent not great in the realm of hitters who have a real chance to be good in MLB.  Gabriel Gonzalez is 79th percentile, so you might want to lower your hopes there.

Looking solely at a slash line is very misleading.  First, Jenkins has a decent slash line of .272/.385/.440.  Age vs level and K-rate, the real predictors of how good someone will be at the major league level are quite good and actually it all would be much better if he would quit getting hurt.  Assuming his body doesn't just break apart, he's an all-star, and imo he'll be better than every OF the Twins have ever had, save for Puckett, Oliva, and Buxton, and he might be as good as some of that.  He's a Lyman Bostock who will hit for less average, have a higher walk rate, and otherwise start MLB 2-3 years younger than Lyman because he didn't go to college.

Feel better?

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, Twins GFP said:

I am having a hard time believing they will burn any of his service time this year. especially with the upcoming strike. I would imagine he would accrue service time if he is on the roster during the strike, which the Twins will not want.

The possible impending work stoppage is exactly why we need to see as much big league time as we can see from as many of Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Mendez and (gulp) Sabato between now and the end of this season.  The possibility of the arrival of March 2028 (or, heaven help us, midsummer) and having NOT seen what these guys look like against big league pitching is NOT a good idea.  Especially for a team mostly selling hope.