Jackson Flora to Drew Burress: Dark Horse Candidates for Twins at No. 3 in 2026 MLB Draft

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of © Matt Bush/Special to the Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Over the last few weeks at Twins Daily, we’ve spent time digging into the top three players in the 2026 MLB Draft. After breaking down Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, we detailed top overall prospect Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson, the best high school prospect in the class. As we approach Day One, it’s easier to characterize the class. It’s top-heavy in terms of impact talent, with a clear, consensus top three. There’s plenty of depth in the 30-100 range, too. In short, picking third in this class is a great spot to be.

We also know that the MLB Draft yields plenty of surprises. Should the Twins deviate from a consensus top-three player to move some money to their other picks (or just because their reports buck the consensus), here are some of their primary options.

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Flora is the best pitcher (college or high school) entering draft weekend. He’s an arm who marries performance and projection, although I’d rank him behind the top college arm from 2025 (Kade Anderson) and the top college arm from 2024 (Chase Burns).

Flora pitched behind second overall pick Tyler Bremner in 2025, and returned a year later to headline the Gauchos' rotation. He has an ideal frame for a starter, at 6-foot-5 and 205 pounds, with some additional strength still to be added. After pitching primarily as a reliever as a freshman, Flora took on a starting role as a sophomore and thrived, managing a 3.15 FIP in 75 innings while striking out close to 28% of the hitters he faced. The stuff is loud. Flora relies on a fastball, slider, changeup combination, though he does access a cutter and curveball occasionally, too. It's a high-spin heater (up to 2,600 RPM), with about 17 inches of vert, topping out at 100 MPH (averaging 98) from a lowish three-quarter angle.

Flora throws two iterations of his slider: a harder version around 84-86 MPH, and a sweeper that generates 17-19 inches of horizontal movement. He incorporated a kick-change in 2026, which sits 86-90 and generated huge whiff rates. To add to this intriguing arsenal, Flora has been an excellent strike-thrower in college, walking just 8% of hitters in 2026.

Flora separated himself as SP1 in the 2026 cycle. There's room for development and refinement of his pitch shapes and arsenal, but this is front-of-the-rotation arm talent and upside. In general, drafting a pitcher in the top three gives me pause. An organization has to be incredibly convicted on their evaluation and the level of talent. I’m not sure Flora established the level of dominance of some of his counterparts from recent drafts—the level that would give me enough confidence to pull the trigger at three.

Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
Burress has been the most consistently productive college hitter since he set foot on campus at Georgia Tech. There's no arguing the track record, but there's a limited catalogue of right-handed impact bats in the big leagues who stood 5-foot-9.

Burress has a ton of moving pieces in his swing that can get a little convoluted and may be problematic against better pitching in professional baseball. It's good (not outstanding) bat-to-ball skills, with tremendous quality of contact that has resulted in 44 home runs in his first two collegiate seasons. Burress rarely expands the zone and walked significantly more than he struck out in his first two seasons in Atlanta.

He also has strong supplementary tools. A plus arm and above-average speed and defense give him a chance to stick in center field, at least in the infancy of his pro career. After a slow start, Burress finished 2026 with a .358/.473/.657 line with 16 home runs, a 15.8 BB%, a 13.8 K%, and a 143 wRC+. He will get a ton of credit in draft models for his performance in his first two collegiate seasons, but there are too many questions for me to select him in the top three. 

Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS, FL
Jacob Lombard is the younger brother of George Lombard, a 2023 Yankees draftee and consensus top-100 prospect in his own right. Lombard the younger has some of the loudest tools in the entire draft class, but qualifies as a high-risk, high-reward prep option for teams picking in the first round.

Lombard hits from the right-hand side of the plate. There's plus bat speed and easy raw power to all fields. The biggest questions in his offensive profile surround his hit tool, with concerns about the levels of swing-and-miss in the 2025 summer showcase circuit. He's incredibly athletically gifted. He plays smooth shortstop, has a solid arm and double-plus speed. This might be the highest-upside play in the entire draft class. He could be a 30-30 type player if he can hit enough after turning pro.

The Field
EJ Booth is a compact, twitchy, athletic outfielder committed to Vanderbilt. It's a bit of an unconventional swing from the left side that can look better in batting practice than in games, but it's underpinned by serious bat speed and an emerging ability to do damage on contact. All told, Booth has a chance to have above-average hit and power tools. He's a nightmare on the base paths with 70-grade speed and is one of the fastest runners of the class. As one might imagine, this supports excellent range in the outfield. While his arm is fringe-average, he should have little challenge tracking down almost anything and could settle into any outfield spot defensively. Booth will turn 18 a few days before the draft.

Tyler Bell was a supplemental second-rounder in 2024 who was selected by the Rays, but he found his way to campus in Lexington. Two years later, he's a draft-eligible sophomore and top-20 draft prospect ahead of the 2026 cycle. Bell is a switch-hitter who has solid, clean swings from both sides of the plate. As a freshman, he did a little bit of everything well, capping his first collegiate season with 29 extra-base hits and a .907 OPS. If he can elevate the ball with more consistency, it's a 55-hit, 50-power combination potential as a pro.

He has all the ingredients to be a solid pro shortstop, with a good first step, an above-average arm, and a good glove. While Bell missed some time from the outset of the 2026 season, he finished strong, hitting .343/.510/.608 with 9 home runs (19 XBH), a 15.5 BB%, an 18.6 K%, and a 152 wRC+ in 41 games. Rumors persist that Bell could be an under-slot top-5 selection. That makes it worth mentioning him in this group, as the Twins weigh all of their options.

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[thelanges5]

Some intriguing options, thanks for the thoughts and analysis. I’ve still got my heart set on Cholowsky, Emerson, and Lackey. Go Twins!

[Dman]

Thanks Jamie! Flora is the wildcard as pitchers have taken well below slot at times in the draft.  They could do an arm first draft kind of like they did the Chase Petty year.  Still the top three hitters have incredibly high upside.  It would be awfully hard to pass that up when it is so hard to find really good hitters.

It's been kind of a funny\interesting year looking at the system needs.  The Twins started out with a likely rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Bradley Ober, and SWR.  AAA started out with likely Abel, Matthews, Prielipp, Morris and Festa with Rojas in the wings.  It looked like this system had plenty of mid rotation arms in reserve.  Turn the page to today and the only healthy arms at AAA are Rojas and maybe relief arm Klein.  That's it.  Everyone else is either injured or already with the team. 

And the cupboard is pretty bare right now.  They aggressively moved Gallagher but he is struggling and with Soto, Hill and Bohorquez struggles at high A they appear to be on the slow track.  The only other arm with promise right now would be Quick who hasn't been overly dominant at High A yet.  Once every one gets healthy there will be a bit more depth, but what I viewed as a system strength to start the year has quickly turned to a weakness.  Drafting more arms high and low should be a priority again this year.

On the hitting side the AAA bats have been on fire since May.  However, with Jenkins out most of the year as well as Rodriguez the only top 100 guy that looks ready to move forward is Culpepper.  Fortunately the bats at the MLB level have been getting the job done, but the system isn't exactly flush with elite bats.  So we need bats too.  

So I still think the Twins should go with one of the top three bats to start and look for arms after that.  There should be a lot of hitting talent repeating A ball next year as well as talent ready to move up from the FCL so they shouldn't have to worry as much about bats to fill out the roster next year.  After the bat I would ask for a heavy arm draft.

We'll see what they do as they generally like to have balanced drafts, but I think they need to replenish arms in this system as things stand today.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

Thanks Jamie! Flora is the wildcard as pitchers have taken well below slot at times in the draft.  They could do an arm first draft kind of like they did the Chase Petty year.  Still the top three hitters have incredibly high upside.  It would be awfully hard to pass that up when it is so hard to find really good hitters.

It's been kind of a funny\interesting year looking at the system needs.  The Twins started out with a likely rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Bradley Ober, and SWR.  AAA started out with likely Abel, Matthews, Prielipp, Morris and Festa with Rojas in the wings.  It looked like this system had plenty of mid rotation arms in reserve.  Turn the page to today and the only healthy arms at AAA are Rojas and maybe relief arm Klein.  That's it.  Everyone else is either injured or already with the team. 

And the cupboard is pretty bare right now.  They aggressively moved Gallagher but he is struggling and with Soto, Hill and Bohorquez struggles at high A they appear to be on the slow track.  The only other arm with promise right now would be Quick who hasn't been overly dominant at High A yet.  Once every one gets healthy there will be a bit more depth, but what I viewed as a system strength to start the year has quickly turned to a weakness.  Drafting more arms high and low should be a priority again this year.

On the hitting side the AAA bats have been on fire since May.  However, with Jenkins out most of the year as well as Rodriguez the only top 100 guy that looks ready to move forward is Culpepper.  Fortunately the bats at the MLB level have been getting the job done, but the system isn't exactly flush with elite bats.  So we need bats too.  

So I still think the Twins should go with one of the top three bats to start and look for arms after that.  There should be a lot of talent repeating A ball next year as well as talent ready to move up from the FCL so they shouldn't have to worry as much about bats to fill out the roster next year.  After the bat I would ask for a heavy arm draft.

We'll see what they do as they generally like to have balanced drafts, but I think they need to replenish arms in this system as things stand today.

I'm with ya. I still think long term the prognosis for the rotation is pretty good. Ryan (for now), Pablo next year, Taj, Abel, Zebby all good options. Flora is probably the only dark horse candidate I can talk myself into, but I'd rank the top arms from the previous two years above him so I'd rather just stick with whoever is there of Roch, Emerson, or Lackey.

[Patzky]

Please don't overthink this, guys. It's great to know who's who but unless some of these names are around for our second pick, there's a reason the top three are ranked that way 

[Jeff K]

Flora wouldn't bother me as noted by others.  I've got my hopes on Lackey being available.  

[TopGunn#22]

I'd like to see Lackey.  The SS's are very intriguing, but with Houston and Culpepper in the system and a probably trade of Ryan Jeffers to the Yankees, I'd like to see Lackey.  I think he could be a fast-track candidate to the MLB roster.

We still have Tait and Jimenez progressing as well Dhiaw, but I think Lackey could be an All Star for us.  

I'm curious who the Twins could be looking at for rounds #2-#5 as well as any supplemental picks.   

[laloesch]

I'm gonna buck the trend in the comments and say pick Jackson Flora.  A top of the rotation college pitcher will progress rapidly through the system.  The Twins need as many top arms coming up as possible.  Ryan is not gonna be a Twin within a year or so, and Lopez is gonna be gone soon too if he ever returns to his former self after TJ surgery.  Ober is also seeing his last days as a Twin.  The Twins have some solid pieces in Taj and Abel.  Matthews and Prielipp look promising, but Festa is still a question mark as is Rojas.  While I'd like to have Lackey or Emerson, I still think the underlying urgent need is pitching.  Culpepper will be ready soon at SS and there are several promising catchers in the system now. However, all that said I don't think the Twins can go wrong taking one of Emerson, Cholowsky, Lackey, or Flora.

[mike8791]

My ideal draft would have Flora as #3 pick for Twins but only if a miracle occurred and the Pohlads committed to resigning Jeffers.  Assuming that is not going to happen, then yes, Lackey should be the pick, if available.  However, I think odds are less than 50:50 that Lackey will be available, so then we are looking at a choice among  Cholowsky,  Emerson or Flora.  Twins cannot really afford to take a chance on a HS SS, as their window for contention is likely to be open in the 2027-2029 period and its highly doubtful Emerson would be able to contribute by then.  So if Cholowsky is off the board, then Flora should be the pick.  

The real question should be if both Cholowsky and Lackey were available at #3, who should the Twins select.? What a nice option to have!!  While the Twins have some highly rated prospects at both positions, it seems with Culpepper and Houston, one of these two should likely turn into a solid major leaguer, while Tait is really the only solid prospect at C, at least for the next 2-3 years.  So, in this ideal scenario, Lackey would be the preferred choice.  

In any case, this will be a fascinating draft!

[chpettit19]

If the top 3 prospects are truly on a different tier than the rest, there isn't any decision to be made. Much like the 2023 draft that had a top tier 5 deep and the Twins had the 5th pick. Don't get cute and just pick whichever one is left. The real question is simply whether or not Roch, Lackey, and Emerson are truly on a different tier. 

If they aren't, then you can start thinking about Flora. If they are, then the decision is made. Best player available.

[DasBat]

I'd be ok with any of Cholowsky, Emerson, Flora or Lackey.  That's probably the order I'd go with as well.  Anybody else I'd be pretty disappointed with.  Shortstops are never a bad idea, you can never have enough pitching, and catcher is such an important position.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If the top 3 prospects are truly on a different tier than the rest, there isn't any decision to be made. Much like the 2023 draft that had a top tier 5 deep and the Twins had the 5th pick. Don't get cute and just pick whichever one is left. The real question is simply whether or not Roch, Lackey, and Emerson are truly on a different tier. 

If they aren't, then you can start thinking about Flora. If they are, then the decision is made. Best player available.

This

[ashbury]

57 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If the top 3 prospects are truly on a different tier than the rest, there isn't any decision to be made. Much like the 2023 draft that had a top tier 5 deep and the Twins had the 5th pick. Don't get cute and just pick whichever one is left. The real question is simply whether or not Roch, Lackey, and Emerson are truly on a different tier. 

If they aren't, then you can start thinking about Flora. If they are, then the decision is made. Best player available.

Basically it comes down to player evaluation.  If a team's scouting and analytics are well integrated and are better than most other teams, they'll do well.  In all phases, not just drafting.

I'm not enough of a scout to have an independent opinion on any of these players.  But if the Twins draft day personnel do have an opinion that's at variance with the seeming consensus that this is a three-player draft at the top, they'd better be right.

[Steve Lein]

Quote

"Burress has been the most consistently productive college hitter since he set foot on campus at Georgia Tech. There's no arguing the track record, but there's a limited catalogue of right-handed impact bats in the big leagues who stood 5-foot-9."

It's also a not very well kept secret that Burress is not actually even 5-foot-9.

[DocBauer]

There's really no reason not to pick one of the top 3 unless the Twins scouting department just really and truly believes in someone else.

It's hard to turn away the #1 arm in Flora, but there are enough small question marks that it's a little hard to grab him and not one of the big 3.

I've stated before that a year or two from now Lombard might end up being the best player in this draft. That is, if his hit tool works on a professional level. But again, despite his ceiling, when you're presented with a trio at the top of the draft like this, why mess around? Just take the best remaining of the group when you're up.

Now, if the Sox or Rays pull a surprise and 2 of the 3 are sitting there when it's the Twins turn, things get very interesting. 

[Mike Sixel]

Only Flora interests me of this group. Look, they need a lot more pitching..... And he's the only one likely to arrive while Jenkins, Culpeper, and others are up.... Everyone else is three years away....

Stop taking HS pitchers, please. 

[gman]

I hope Cholowski is available at #3. But who ever it is I am mostly hoping they don't spend most of their first 3 years in the Twins system on the injured list.