Revisiting the José Berríos for Austin Martin & Simeon Woods Richardson Trade

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn, Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Five years have passed since Derek Falvey made one of the most consequential trades in recent Twins history. At the 2021 trade deadline, Minnesota sent homegrown ace José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for two Top 100 prospects: Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. At the time, it felt like a franchise-altering deal. The Twins were selling after a disappointing season, and Toronto was aggressively pursuing a postseason berth.

Now, with Berríos sidelined following Tommy John surgery, Woods Richardson designated for assignment, and Martin establishing himself as a regular contributor in the major leagues, there is enough distance from the trade to begin evaluating what each side actually received.

What Was Said at the Time?

When the trade was announced in July 2021, the baseball industry largely viewed it as a major win for Minnesota. The Twins had not actively shopped Berríos entering deadline week, but once they began listening, Toronto's offer exceeded expectations. FanGraphs described the return as a "bounty," noting that Minnesota had landed two Top 100 prospects for a pitcher with only a season and a half of club control remaining.

That praise came with plenty of caveats. Martin, the fifth overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, possessed elite on-base skills but carried questions about his future defensive home, power potential, and rising strikeout rates. Woods Richardson was viewed as a polished pitching prospect, though evaluators wondered whether his command and lack of premium velocity would limit his upside.

The Twins were betting on talent and projection. The Blue Jays were betting on certainty.

Berríos Delivered Mixed Results in Toronto

Toronto quickly demonstrated its commitment to Berríos by signing him to a seven-year, $131 million extension. However, that extension should not factor into the original trade evaluation. Minnesota only traded away the remainder of the 2021 season and the entirety of 2022.

Berríos was excellent down the stretch in 2021. Across 12 starts with Toronto, he posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while generating 1.5 rWAR. His performance looked very similar to what he had provided for the Twins throughout his career.

The following season was a completely different story. Berríos struggled throughout 2022, finishing with a 5.23 ERA while leading the American League in both hits and earned runs allowed. He accumulated a disappointing -0.7 rWAR season. When all was said and done, the Blue Jays received just 0.8 rWAR during the season and a half of team control Minnesota traded away.

Martin's Path Has Been Anything But Linear

Few prospects have experienced a more winding road through the Twins organization than Austin Martin. Many of the concerns scouts identified in 2021 followed him through the minor leagues. Injuries slowed his development, and there were moments when it appeared he had fallen out of Minnesota's long-term plans altogether.

Martin finally debuted in 2025, appearing in 93 games. The overall numbers were underwhelming. He posted a .670 OPS and an 89 OPS+ while finishing with -1.0 rWAR.

Yet the story changed dramatically after the 2025 trade deadline. Following a stint at Triple-A and a healthier second half, Martin returned to Minnesota looking like a different player. Over his final 50 games, he produced 0.7 rWAR with a 106 OPS+. He also showcased the athleticism that once made him one of baseball's premier prospects, successfully stealing 11 bases in 15 attempts. On a team that collapsed down the stretch, Martin emerged as one of the few reasons for optimism.

Entering 2026, his role remained uncertain. However, a strong April combined with struggles from several teammates helped him earn more consistent playing time. Through 54 games, Martin has already matched last year's 0.7 rWAR total while posting a 102 OPS+.

The season has not been without challenges. After recording a .899 OPS in April, that figure dropped to .587 in May. Even so, he has established himself as a legitimate major-league contributor. Because he was a late bloomer, he remains under team control into his early 30s.

Woods Richardson's Roller-Coaster Ride

While Martin arrived with the bigger prospect pedigree, Woods Richardson arguably provided more value to Minnesota in the short term. Between 2024 and 2025, he developed into a reliable member of the Twins rotation. Across 245 innings, he produced 4.1 rWAR with a 4.11 ERA and a 103 ERA+.

His future appeared especially bright late last season. Last September, Woods Richardson unveiled a splitter that transformed his repertoire. Over his final 27 innings, he posted a 2.33 ERA and struck out 36 hitters. The pitch generated swings and misses at a rate he had never previously achieved and looked capable of elevating him from a back-end starter to something more.

Unfortunately, that momentum disappeared almost immediately in 2026. His first two starts offered little reason for concern. Against Kansas City and Tampa Bay, Woods Richardson allowed just three earned runs across 11 2/3 innings. Then everything unraveled.

Over his next seven starts, he went 0-5 with a 9.79 ERA, surrendering 38 runs in only 30 1/3 innings. Opposing hitters consistently squared up his fastball, and the effectiveness of his splitter vanished. By the time the Twins designated him for assignment, he had accumulated -1.3 rWAR while leading the American League in both losses and earned runs allowed. It was a stunning collapse.

So, Who Won the Trade?

Trade evaluations rarely provide simple answers, and this one remains incomplete. If the conversation is limited strictly to the value Minnesota traded away, the Twins appear to have done exceptionally well. Berríos produced only 0.8 rWAR during the year and a half of control Toronto acquired before reaching free agency.

Meanwhile, Woods Richardson alone generated 4.1 rWAR during his productive 2024 and 2025 seasons. Even after accounting for his disastrous 2026 campaign, he still provided substantially more value than Berríos did during the control window that was exchanged.

Martin's story is still being written. After posting a combined 1.4 rWAR over the last two seasons, he remains a controllable major-league player who could continue adding value for several more years. At the moment, the Twins have already received more on-field production than the Blue Jays got from Berríos during the period they originally acquired him. That alone makes the trade look favorable for Minnesota.

However, the final verdict may still be years away. Martin is only beginning to establish himself in the majors, and his future contributions could ultimately determine just how significant this trade becomes in Twins history. Five years later, what once looked like a prospect-heavy gamble appears to be paying off. Whether it becomes one of the franchise's best modern trades depends on what Martin does next.

How should fans view this trade after five years? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Eris]

The Twins have failed to develop/harness the expected value of the Berrios trade. Therefore, the trade was a lost opportunity. That Berrios is hurt was a risk for Toronto and should not factor into the evaluation of the trade. 

[bean5302]

I've done this a few times, but Berrios stat line across the season in 2022 is not valuable. First, Toronto won 60% of the games Berrios started.

Second, you can see (green) starts where Berrios went 5.0+ IP with an ERA of 3.99 or less or (yellow 6.0-6.2 IP allowing 3 ER for a QS). Then there are the orange games where the game wasn't really out of hand.

I haven't done a breakdown recently but as I recall an old post I did

Berrios had a few blowup games where he was absolutely shelled, but overall, he was far better in terms of wins/losses than what the ERA would imply while pitching 172.0 innings in a full season.

Berrios was not treated like an ace. The Twins were throwing $80MM figures at him which is why he wasn't interested. The Blue Jays signed Berrios to a #3-4 money contract. Lets revisit what pitchers are making, shall we?

Elite Ace = $35MM+
#1 = $30MM+
#2 = $25MM+
#3 = $20MM+
#4 = $15MM+ <-- Berrios at $18.7MM
#5 = $10MM+

[bean5302]

Revisiting the Berrios trade, I think Berrios' production means less than what the Twins got back in return. The Twins were in the drivers seat for the most coveted starter in MLB (other than Scherzer who was part of an enormous package with Trea Turner). Berrios was viewed as the most valuable trade target started in MLB as an absolute workhorse, playoff caliber starter who was more than a rental.

BBTV rejected the trade as lopsided in favor of the Twins as I recall. Martin + SWR was like +55 and Berrios was like +40ish. In any case, what COULD the Twins have gotten vs. what DID the Twins get?

The Twins were looking for MLB ready or near MLB ready players who could help the team as soon as 2022. Both Martin and SWR were in AA in 2021. Unfortunately, SWR's aversion to coaching and adjustments meant he was delayed until 2024, and even then, he provided modest value by 3.0 fWAR across 2 starter seasons featuring multiple demotions due to performance problems. The BaseballReference dart board of value, which makes no sense to me currently, pegged SWR at a substantially more valuable 4.1 bWAR. Austin Martin has not provided any substantial value IMHO.

When it comes to Martin, he was done dirty by a Twins front office which I don't respect. I personally believe players should be put into positions where they can be successful in the field, which means they have the physical skill set to succeed, and they should learn that position inside and out becoming naturals. The Twins front office seems to follow the same belief that a few TD posters have. Sandlot baseball, folks, draw straws to see where you play today, it doesn't matter. The sandlot baseball strategy doesn't resonate with my life experiences suggesting you need a lot of repetition to become good at something, and my feeling seems to align with many quotes from MLB players who've changed positions over the years. I've been very impressed with Martin's arm this year. Now several years removed from a UCL tear that shut him down starting March 2023 which was treated with the dreaded rest and rehab approach, Martin's throws from the outfield suggest at least a 55+ grade arm. I think he could have value at 3B or 2B where looked solid in his last consistent work in 2023. I don't think Martin's bat will play well at the corners. Martin seems to lack fly ball tracking skills or situational awareness as he approaches walls in the outfield. I'm not sure he plays a static position enough to improve his comfort. For the record, players have stated how much harder it is to over RF/LF than CF in terms of instincts as ball flight paths are far more difficult to predict as they slice more and there are more angles to adjust than CF where it's more about athleticism, I guess. Anyway, I don't think the Twins are going to give Martin a static position so I think he'll continue to provide thin value overall.

I don't think there's any doubt the Twins could have been more successful in acquiring players of far more real world value production, but I think they did okay. It's not like they got nothing at all, and on paper they fleeced Toronto at the time.

 

[D.C Twins]

Um... it turned out to be Berrios for Martin ;)   

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Did we win the trade?

WAR suggests we did. 

Based on what value we expected to get from the players, I'd say not really.

Sim was doing ok until this year. 

But, IIRC, Martin was touted as a future star. So far this year, he's had a good OBP and I like that, but unfortunately lately hes looked more like a platoon guy. His defense in the corner outfield spots seems to be decent. 

So, sure, we may have "won" the trade based on analytics, but we didnt get what we were sold on. 

Ive noticed we've had a rough time developing really any of our high end prospects. 

[GopherMike]

I think in hindsight this move wasn't as consequential as we thought at the time. The best part of the move was that we didn't sign Berrios to a 7 year $131 million contract. THAT would have been consequential. 

Regardless---we clearly won this trade. I don't see the point in comparing it against a hypothetical alternative trade we could have made. There's just far too many hypotheticals.

[FlyingFinn]

The trade was for Berrios' one partial year anyway. He was never signing with the Twins so any extension doesn't count.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

The trade was for Berrios' one partial year anyway. He was never signing with the Twins so any extension doesn't count.

Berrios was not a rental. He was under team control through 2022.

[ziggy]

14 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

The trade was for Berrios' one partial year anyway. He was never signing with the Twins so any extension doesn't count.

My understanding is it was 1 and 1/2 years of Berrios control. Same as Joe Ryan right now.

Neither player recieved for Berrios will be an all star. The Twins immediatly tried to change Martins swing to generate more power. They also had him play shortstop for a long time in the minors even though most scouts said he will not play there in the major league. Head scratching decisions the both of them that proved to be futile.

I would hope for better results if the Twins trade Ryan. 

Did the Twins win the trade? I'm calling it a tie with a slight edge to the Twins. Very slight.

[karcherd]

21 minutes ago, ziggy said:

I would hope for better results if the Twins trade Ryan. 

This is basically the same front office, so even though it will be Zoll making the final call, I don't expect better results.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

My understanding is it was 1 and 1/2 years of Berrios control. Same as Joe Ryan right now.

Neither player recieved for Berrios will be an all star. The Twins immediatly tried to change Martins swing to generate more power. They also had him play shortstop for a long time in the minors even though most scouts said he will not play there in the major league. Head scratching decisions the both of them that proved to be futile.

I would hope for better results if the Twins trade Ryan. 

Did the Twins win the trade? I'm calling it a tie with a slight edge to the Twins. Very slight.

I think looking for power with Martin was a sound strategy. He's just not going to be a starting caliber player without more power, and the Twins were hoping for upside. If Martin could even have mediocre power, he'd have been our starting corner outfielder the past 3 years instead of a AAA shuttle, backup piece.

 

[karcherd]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think looking for power with Martin was a sound strategy. He's just not going to be a starting caliber player without more power, and the Twins were hoping for upside. If Martin could even have mediocre power, he'd have been our starting corner outfielder the past 3 years instead of a AAA shuttle, backup piece.

 

Was there something in his profile that said he could hit for power, honest question.  Not everyone hits for power.  If that was what they were looking for, maybe the trade shouldn't have been made.

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Was there something in his profile that said he could hit for power, honest question.  Not everyone hits for power.  If that was what they were looking for, maybe the trade shouldn't have been made.

I don't think anybody felt Martin was ever going to be a "power hitter" but his raw power was typically graded about 50. His max exit velocity is around 107-108mph which is well below average, but his actual ISO is far below that still. Martin's raw power probably puts him into a .080-.140 ISO range, and Marin is firmly at the absolute bottom end of potential power production. 

Luis Arraez has similar raw power, but he almost never swings hard. He makes his living looping soft liners over the heads of infielders, dropping down in front of outfielders or in the gaps. Those balls frequently lead to doubles which Arraez accumulates 30-35 a year that way.

Martin is a ground ball machine. Those grounders exit much faster (watch bat bros for examples) and because the grounders are so much faster, fielders get to them quicker and they slow down faster due to friction with the ground. This means those balls find fewer gaps, and make it to outfielders fast enough to eliminate doubles.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, karcherd said:

Was there something in his profile that said he could hit for power, honest question.  Not everyone hits for power. 

Not everyone is worth trading a valuable pitcher for, either.

I was always of the opinion that SWR would be the key to the trade.  If you trade away current pitching, you need either current pitching or even better future pitching in return.

You can always find a team willing to trade you a bat for your good pitcher.

SWR didn't develop the way the Twins expected him to, and Martin didn't establish any important but unanticipated tools such as power or shortstop ability.  So for me the trade is a failure.