Kaelen Culpepper is Preparing Himself to Fill Two Roles the Twins Desperately Need

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

If the Triple-A season were a round of golf, Kaelen Culpepper might be two under par through the first five holes. It’s not been a scorching start, but he’s within touching distance of a great front nine. Botched metaphor aside, Culpepper has surpassed 30 games at St. Paul, so it’s time to dig into his numbers and make some initial assessments of his performance. 

Upon first glance, it’s a solid start. Through 34 games, Culpepper is hitting .250/.335/.465, with 8 home runs among 15 extra-base hits. He’s walking a healthy 10.4% of the time, and striking out just 20.1% of the time, good for a 103 wRC+ through the first month-plus of games. Not bad.

Let’s start with Culpepper’s bat-to-ball skills. Is he making enough contact? Definitely. Culpepper is running an overall contact rate of 79.2% (on the high end of average for a big leaguer). His in-zone contact rate is 89.5% (an average big-leaguer hovers around 85%). Why is this significant? Well, Culpepper’s data hasn’t been widely publicly available since he debuted in 2024. Additionally, before 2026, he hadn’t played a game at the Triple-A level. This is his first month at the doorstep of the majors, which makes what we've seen so far really encouraging stuff.

Coming out of college, scouting reports had mixed reviews on Culpepper’s ability to hit for power. He wasn’t a prolific power hitter in college, maxing out at 11 home runs in his junior season in an environment that maximizes offensive production. Conversely, it was a pretty right-handed swing with good bat speed that looked geared towards maximizing pull-side loft. How is all that playing out in Lowertown?

Pretty well, so far. After clubbing 20 home runs in 113 MiLB games in 2025, Culpepper has 8 more through 31 in 2026, with those 15 extra-base hits overall. His exit velocity numbers look solid, too. He’s currently running an average EV of 91 mph, with a MaxEV of 110.2 mph. We can shoehorn those numbers confidently into a 50-55 power grade, good for somewhere in the range of 20-26 home runs in a given season. Culpepper is hitting the ball hard with regularity, running a hard-hit rate of 48.2%, well above the major-league average of around 38%.

Ok, so far, so good. What about that pesky ground ball rate though? Culpepper ran a ground ball percentage of 50% in 2025—problematically high, no matter how hard you hit the ball or how solid your bat-to-ball skills are. He’s cut that significantly in the early going in 2026. It’s currently sitting at 43.2%, in the region of where it should be, with an average launch angle of 12.4°.

Far too rosy a picture so far, right? There has to be a bugaboo in this increasingly solid-looking offensive profile? Well, there is. Culpepper chases a lot. His current rate sits at 31.1%, which is high enough that it could expose him a bit in the majors. It’s not crippling, though. For context, there are around 100 big-league hitters who currently have a higher chase rate. 

Culpepper has always chased. He was an aggressive swinger in college. That’s a trait the Twins aren’t afraid of drafting. It’ll likely always be part of his game. How he’s chased has changed, though, which is a development worth spending a moment on. The scouting report is out on Culpepper. Breaking and off-speed stuff, down and away. Here’s the simplest visual possible, the number of pitches he’s been thrown at Triple-A to date, by zone location.

That’s a lot down and away. Here’s the good news, though. While Culpepper is still chasing a lot, he’s chasing less down and away, and more inside. Why is that helpful? Inside is Culpepper’s nitro zone. Peep the visual below, which shows Culpepper’s slugging percentage by zone location. If you’re going to chase, chase where you can do damage, and show that it's a result of having honed your focus on one productive part of the strike zone, rather than a result of being defensive or deceived.

Through the end of the week-long series in Vegas, Culpepper was running a .269 BABIP. There’s not much about his contact skills, quality of contact, or batted-ball profile to suggest there’s some underlying issue here. In short, despite his solid 103 wRC+, I think Culpepper is about to heat up and produce more.

The Twins are encouraged by Culpepper’s play at shortstop. He’d easily be the Twins' best defensive infielder right now. I feel relatively confident calling him likely to be an average big-league shortstop (complimentary), if not slightly better. His arm will allow the skill set to work excellently at third base, too (don’t tell Royce, anyone).

If his first 34 games at Triple-A can be relied on, Culpepper can soon fill several voids the Twins desperately need him to. An above-average defensive infielder, and at the very least, a solid, two-win, everyday player. In another 30 games or so, I expect him to be knocking on the door a little more loudly.

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[Mike h]

When I saw the headline I thought Culpepper is becoming a pitcher?

[arby58]

If/when Culpepper comes up to play SS, it would allow the Twins to move Lee (and his not that strong of an arm) to second base. 

[Blyleven2011]

Give him alittle more development time and hope he heats up ...

His defense would be a plus right now but the bat needs to tick up a notch or 2 ...

He has showed good promise so far but has he earned a promotion after 34 games in AAA  , and the twins are control freaks at manipulating service time ...

[thelanges5]

You had me at “best defensive infielder”

 

[Peter Gravett]

14 minutes ago, Mike h said:

When I saw the headline I thought Culpepper is becoming a pitcher?

Give it a little time and we'll have a Culpepper at shortstop and another in the pen.

[Peter Gravett]

KC finding another gear would be something to see. The guy definitely has the drive. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Good article, Jamie. If Culpepper continues to perform as well has has been doing thus far (although it's still early in the season), do we see him as a late season call-up this year? Or even earlier?

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

Good article, Jamie. If Culpepper continues to perform as well has has been doing thus far (although it's still early in the season), do we see him as a late season call-up this year? Or even earlier?

If he notches things up a bit offensively, I'd set the over/under as the All-Star break.

[TopGunn#22]

Bringing up Cu;pepper to play SS would be a big addition to the Twins.  Lee could move to either 2B or 3B and that move would also improve the IF defense.  Now that Lewis and Wallner have completely cratered their value, it's hard to see the Twins getting anything decent back for either in a trade.

Demoting Lewis and Wallner to St. Paul to "rediscover", "reinvent", or otherwise figure out how to hit, would help if either had any minor league options left.  But it's clear that Culpepper has earned a chance with the big league club and Emmanuel Rodriguez has as well, once he's healthy. 

E-Rod is also a good defensive OF, able to play CF, but who would also be pretty solid in RF.  An OF of Martin in LF, Buxton in CF and E-Rod in RF would be pretty good defensively.  

The Twins survived a scare with Joe Ryan, but have neither the bullpen, lineup or current health in their rotation to be a serious contender.  Ryan should be traded to the team willing to pay the highest price in about 2-3 weeks.  It's time for the Twins to open the floodgates to several prospects and see what they've got.  Culpepper would be a welcome start to that process.  

[jmlease1]

37 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If/when Culpepper comes up to play SS, it would allow the Twins to move Lee (and his not that strong of an arm) to second base. 

I think it's more likely that Lee would move to 3B, if he gets slotted into a regular job. He's got enough arm for 3B, especially when he can set and throw, and has an accurate arm. I think he can play 2B, but he doesn't have a great quick first step, which I think impacts him more at 2B than at 3B. But YMMV. 

I also still have hope for Keaschall at 2B...

Culpepper is doing fine so far, but his OPS is basically sitting at team average right now, so he's not blowing the doors off yet. He'll definitely get attacked more efficiently in MLB, so the chase rate is concerning; pitchers in MLB are good enough to make him prove that he can lay off that slider off the outside of the plate and there will be fewer cheap walks. But he's on a good path and keeps showing improvements to how he attacks at the plate, so I'd be surprised if we don't see him at some point in MLB this season, which feels like a win.

[mikelink45]

I will always remember Mark Belanger on Earl Weaver's Orioles - he could vacuum up every ball, but could not hit.  Weaver did have the Robinsons, Boog Powell and others to hit, but he recognized the extreme importance of a great fielder at SS and paired with Davey Johnson his keystone was solid and Paul Blair could field like Buxton.

[bunsen82]

So is Culpepper that fast you can't even get a clear picture . . . dang.   🤣

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

10 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Now that Lewis and Wallner have completely cratered their value, it's hard to see the Twins getting anything decent back for either in a trade.

That's the elephant in the room. The "cratering" of both players this season, especially so drastically, is alarming. But yeah, not much trade value for either at this point. 

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Culpepper is doing fine so far, but his OPS is basically sitting at team average right now, so he's not blowing the doors off yet. He'll definitely get attacked more efficiently in MLB, so the chase rate is concerning; pitchers in MLB are good enough to make him prove that he can lay off that slider off the outside of the plate and there will be fewer cheap walks. But he's on a good path and keeps showing improvements to how he attacks at the plate, so I'd be surprised if we don't see him at some point in MLB this season, which feels like a win.

Team average OPS for a SS who can field the position would be fine. As the article notes, if he's chasing stuff inside, he should be ok. 

Last year, Lee played 2B and 3B about the same number of games for the Twins. He did have 4 errors at 2B and 0 at 3B, so maybe he is more suited to that position. That said, it's probably somewhat situational as to where he would play - or maybe he becomes a utility infielder who still plays most days (if he keeps hitting).

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I will always remember Mark Belanger on Earl Weaver's Orioles - he could vacuum up every ball, but could not hit.  Weaver did have the Robinsons, Boog Powell and others to hit, but he recognized the extreme importance of a great fielder at SS and paired with Davey Johnson his keystone was solid and Matt Blair could field like Buxton.

Good memories. Belanger was indeed a slick fielder. But Paul Blair was the outfielder you mentioned. Another plus-glove. 

[Jamie Cameron]

24 minutes ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

Good article, Jamie. If Culpepper continues to perform as well has has been doing thus far (although it's still early in the season), do we see him as a late season call-up this year? Or even earlier?

I'd put the over/under on about 30-40 more games at AAA (barring injury).

[arby58]

12 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I will always remember Mark Belanger on Earl Weaver's Orioles - he could vacuum up every ball, but could not hit.  Weaver did have the Robinsons, Boog Powell and others to hit, but he recognized the extreme importance of a great fielder at SS and paired with Davey Johnson his keystone was solid and Matt Blair could field like Buxton.

There is value in a strong defensive SS - Ozzie Smith didn't make the HOF based on his bat. That said, you need to get the offense from somewhere. The Detroit Tigers probably don't win the 1968 World Series with Roy Oyler at shortstop (as great defensively as he was). Instead, gutsy move by Sparky Anderson to insert Gold Glove winning outfielder Mickey Stanley at shortstop to amp up their offense.

[The Great Hambino]

1 hour ago, Mike h said:

When I saw the headline I thought Culpepper is becoming a pitcher?

I was thinking head of business operations

[srlarson]

Ok a couple of points.....celebrate a .250 average?  a strike out rate of 20%......we can do better than that.....when did we strive for just middle of the road.....like the walk rate of 10% shows he can recognize pitches...even if he chases.....

give him the year in St. Paul.....no sense bringing him up....we will not compete this year....might as well wait for '28.  

 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

There is value in a strong defensive SS - Ozzie Smith didn't make the HOF based on his bat. That said, you need to get the offense from somewhere. The Detroit Tigers probably don't win the 1968 World Series with Roy Oyler at shortstop (as great defensively as he was). Instead, gutsy move by Sparky Anderson to insert Gold Glove winning outfielder Mickey Stanley at shortstop to amp up their offense.

Oh, man, my old baseball card collection has come alive again reading some of those names. Thank you!

[mikelink45]

12 minutes ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

Good memories. Belanger was indeed a slick fielder. But Paul Blair was the outfielder you mentioned. Another plus-glove. 

Sorry - I knew Matt Blair - Viking and his name came out of my memories. I will edit it.

[stringer bell]

What kind of numbers can we project from Culpepper's performance at St. Paul? To me, if he's only hitting .250 with about an .800 OPS, he would likely be well below average against big league pitching. Projecting his defense might be a bit more reason for optimism.

I think this piece is saying that the building blocks are there for a good major league player, but he's still developing. That's great, but I don't think he truly help the 2026 Twins at the level he is performing.

The bigger picture is that the Twins have run out three guys routinely in the infield and each has disappointed in some aspect. Lewis has not hit and not improved defensively, Keaschall has regressed and isn't getting extra base hits and is still below average defensively and Lee has hit well, but has shown he lacks the tools be an average defensive shortstop. Since KC would not be a real improvement this year, this would seem to be "prove it" time for the three major league regulars, with Lewis having the shortest runway and Keaschall the longest.

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I'd put the over/under on about 30-40 more games at AAA (barring injury).

My bet is similar, near the beginning of July. Jamie, all good points in your article.

Those of us who have watched at least 15-20 Saints games this year can see the attributes Culpepper brings to the game. He is still working on skills. The BABIP will almost certainly improve by 30-60 points. I stopped counting the number of hard hit balls that Kaelen has hit that resulted in outs. 

My main point of optimism taken away from watching Culpepper on a regular basis the last couple of years is that he has athletic talent and is improving in all facets of the game. By July it is likely that we see Culpepper playing for the Twins. 

The improvement recently by Brooks Lee will make a decision difficult concerning position. Lee has worked hard on his defensive play but simply doesn't possess the athleticism of Kaelen. Hopefully when the time comes, Lee is more focused on the team and can play a good third base. Lee doesn't have the foot speed to play second base.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Peter Gravett said:

Give it a little time and we'll have a Culpepper at shortstop and another in the pen.

Too bad that Vikings QB came 30 years too soon