The Twins Need a Better Brooks Lee. Is That Possible?

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

knock it off w all the analytics... the kid is 24 ... very good ball player.. lets see how the next couple years pan out...and then maybe Culpepper is the answer

"kid" at 24? He's an adult, he'll be playing his age 25 season (where you're essentially no longer a prospect). I know it's a baseball thing to call these professional adults "kids" but they're not. Falvey famously called 29 year old Kody Clemens a "kid" last year. It's something gross about baseball. 

There were 27 players in MLB last year who were qualified as hitters at Lee's age or younger. Brooks Lee was dead last in terms of his production at the plate. He was 26th of 27 in overall value despite playing SS predominantly.

He's got solid instincts, but he's got a chronic bad back already, he's not athletic enough to hold down any position other than 1B/3B/DH, and he's got exactly 1 thing going for him at the plate, and that's he doesn't strike out a ton.

[jorgenswest]

@Matthew Trueblood

Is there any player who has made adjustments that increased bat speed from a similar bat speed and found success? Did it make a difference?

I think one player that has been written about adding bat speed is Turang through I don’t know if his swing path was different.

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

knock it off w all the analytics... the kid is 24 ... very good ball player.. lets see how the next couple years pan out...and then maybe Culpepper is the answer

Just wait several years and hope players get better seems to be the front office mantra.

[Chris Hove]

I would love to see Lee break out, but without some tweaks to his approach and plate discipline, he will struggle against changeups and sliders low and away. Cut down the strikeouts and have a better pitch selection. He will always have a high chase %, but if he's more selective, that could also increase his slow bat speed and EV. The good thing for him is that Culpepper isn't quite ready to join the big league roster. I could see him putting a little pressure on Lee if he continues to struggle. Lee playing shortstop kind of scares me with his lack of arm strength and range, but if he wants at-bats, that's where the Twins might have to play him.

[Chris Hove]

58 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

@Matthew Trueblood

Is there any player who has made adjustments that increased bat speed from a similar bat speed and found success? Did it make a difference?

I think one player that has been written about adding bat speed is Turang through I don’t know if his swing path was different.

Junior Caminero is one name I can remember who made some key adjustments. He went to a more closed stance and simplified his hand load to maximize power and bat speed.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

There was a time when a player like Lee would be viewed with optimism going into the upcoming season. He has one full major league season on his resume. Analytics have really changed the game, for better or worse. He certainly has work to do but I think it is too early to think he can't be better or that he didn't make strides in the off-season. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

For some bizarro reason Brooks Lee still seems to be regarded as the guy who must be a good player because of . . . pedigree. . . polish. . .  intangibles. . . reasons. . .   I just don’t get it.  He is probably at best a utility guy, but I would prefer my utility guys to either hit better or field a LOT better.  Is he as good as Al Newman?  Nicky Punto?  Willi Castro?  Marwin Gonzalez?  Even Nick Gordon?  

I think that the idea that a prospect “has a high floor” is like saying a player is “scrappy” or “hustles” or “battles his tail off”.  It probably means he’s not good enough to be evaluated positively on his actual performance.  As Charles Barkley has been known to say, “It means he can’t play.”  

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

With all the analytical tools available, how was Lee viewed as a polished college hitter, but now has so many flaws in his approach: slow bat, flat plane, not good at controlling the strike zone, slow foot speed, “chases pitches outside the zone more than an average batter, and doesn't make much contact when he does.” And his primary hitting asset is that he can barrel the bat on the ball, so he will hit some homers. This is a systemic failure of the scouting staff to overrate Lee. That said, Lee can add strength to improve his swing speed, and maybe even improve his foot speed. He will hopefully be bypassed by Culpepper this season, rendering Lee as a utility infielder. That would be a good start to improving this team.

It may seem like all this analytic data has been around forever, but a lot of the swing data is quite recent. Baseball Savant wasn't able to add it until 2024, for example. So Lee was evaluated based on results, on his baseball instincts, how he looked, and all the other things that were state of the art in 2022 when he was chosen 8th overall. He was seen as one of the top college bats in the draft, based on both batting eye and terrific bat-to-ball skills and moderate power. He was a good bet to be a doubles hitting machine that might end up moving down to 3B or 2B if his range didn't stand up. 

Quote

Lee was ranked No. 5 among draft prospects by MLB Pipeline after showing off "otherworldly bat-to-ball skills," according to his scouting report, while hitting .357/.462/.664 with 15 homers and 25 doubles while rarely striking out in 58 games as a junior in 2022 at Cal Poly, where he played for his father, head coach Larry Lee. The Twins are hopeful that he will grow into "impact power" to accentuate the stellar hit tool.
 

Lee won the Brooks Wallace Award for the nation's most outstanding college shortstop in '22, an award won in previous years by the likes of Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. He led or almost led the Big West in nearly every hitting category, finishing first in RBIs, runs scored, slugging percentage, hits, total bases and doubles, second in batting average and home runs, and third in on-base percentage.

 

EDIT: I had some browser trouble getting this to work.  Lots of guys don't even approach average, so Lee being one of one a couple dozen that qualified in his cohort is actually an achievement. He's still only got 189 games under his belt, so there's plenty of room for improvement. But if he just manages to hang around average that's OK too, it'll play until a better guy appears.

Also of note, here's a link to a Driveline Baseball blog post on how to use the swing data and how it describes various types of swing. It's a fun, nerdy read with lots of math and specific player names. 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2024/07/using-mlb-bat-tracking-data-to-better-understand-swings

[Linus]

He can improve his hitting certainly as experience surely helps. Whether that happens remains to be seen. What is pretty certain in my mind is that he is maxed out defensively. He’s not going to get faster (in fact he will soon start to get slower) or develop more arm strength. If he is going to be an everyday player it likely would be at third but we already have someone we are waiting on at third. Near term, where he plays isn’t the biggest concern as if he doesn’t hit better he won’t be playing anywhere. 

[jmlease1]

15 hours ago, big dog said:

Yeah, and it made me wonder why he was a consensus top-8 or so pick? At least that’s how I remember it. Not just a first rounder, but one expected to go early in that round. 

Well, this is the question: is Brooks Lee the guy who was a consensus top 8 pick (and many had him top 5) who was also a consensus top 50 prospect in 2023 and 2024 or the guy who has struggled mightily in MLB?

This season might tell us a lot about it, He's had some injuries, which have likely sapped him some, but he still played a lot in 2025. Lee never absolutely ruined the league in the minors, but he was also never overwhelmed. You look at his aggregate minor league stats, and this is a guy who always put up an OPS above .800 at basically every level. And while he wasn't good last season, he did improve at the plate from 2024 to 2025. Not enough to be sure, and his defense last season certainly was worse than what we hoped...but he didn't totally flail either.

Maybe the best argument for Lee is that he's got some pretty obvious areas for growth, and the biggest one is better command of the strike zone. If he stops chasing and expanding the strike zone it'll almost certainly give him a significant boost. That's probably a better position to be in than "this guy can't handle a MLB fastball"?

[DataNerd]

For all of the questions about what does Lee do well, he has a strong in-zone contact rate (56th/215 min 400PA, 75th percentile).  And while he is certainly not a great defender, he isn't a black hole there either.

For all of this talk about bat speed, the R^2 between bat speed and wRC+ for 2025 is 0.09.  It is far less important than a lot of people here are acting like it is.

[DocBauer]

So we get another one of these during ST? Once again, he began 2025 only about 20 AB above rookie status. So I'm willing to give him a little to grow and improve before giving up on him.

I like his contact ability. Despite what some of the numbers might indicate, he flashed enough power for 16 HR last season. And they weren't all wall scrapers. So there's some things to work with there. A little jump in bat speed, and learning to focus on a smaller hitting zone should provide at least SOME overall improvement. 

Defensively, I like his instincts, his hands, his ability to transition the ball glove to hand, and he throws off balance pretty well. But he's never going to have the athleticism to be anything  better than average at SS.

But I'm OK with that. He either ends up at 2B or 3B in different INF combinations, or he ends up as a decent bat, decent glove at all 4 INF spots. (No reasons he can't play 1B). And I'd be overjoyed to see him as a league average 5th man for the INF. That would make him of great value.

But he does need to be better. And we do need him to hold down SS before K-Pepper is ready. And KC has the athletic ability to stick at SS and make it his. It's also possible HE is also a temporary SS until Houston and his reportedly elite defense are ready. But even then, none of that diminishes the potential role of Lee in that proposed super utility role.

An ideal turnout for the 8th pick of the draft? Perhaps not. But a lot of 1st rounders don't even achieve that level, or even make it all. 

[big dog]

3 hours ago, DataNerd said:

For all of the questions about what does Lee do well, he has a strong in-zone contact rate (56th/215 min 400PA, 75th percentile).  And while he is certainly not a great defender, he isn't a black hole there either.

For all of this talk about bat speed, the R^2 between bat speed and wRC+ for 2025 is 0.09.  It is far less important than a lot of people here are acting like it is.

Major points for using R*2! Stats forever!!!

[Iowatwins]

As most, I'm HOPING for better results from our players however, they are all most likely unachievable with this roster! This could be said of all the second base, right field, shortstop, first base, bullpen articles on this site.  It reminds me of the movie "No Country For Old Men".

"It's a mess, ain't it, Sheriff?".

  Reply: 

"If it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here." 

[Franz]

"...They don't have good defenders flanking him on the infield; they don't have the lineup depth to let him hit ninth and forget about him."

And Brooks Lee is the guy who will imperil the season? Like, make the difference between 95 and 100 losses?

[bunsen82]

This is awesome work by Froemming.  This is a month old.  But wow.  

1st at bat is the second worst hitter in all of baseball

2nd at bat - top 15% at bat

Does better against relievers and better pitchers that weaker and poorer pitchers.  Is making too much contact on pitchers pitches as I had mentioned earlier.  Better than average #'s high leverage and teams above .500 records.   

I really do think he has a good chance of doing very well this year.   He does well against better pitching,  portends he can figure out what to do well pitchers with less stuff -trying to induce weak contact which Lee has been doing.