2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance

[stringer bell]

I recently made a comment on the Josh Bell signing and think his signing makes roster discussion a higher priority here on Twins Daily. Specifically, the Twins have a bunch of left handed hitters who are corner outfielders who could DH and there isn't room for them all. Further, many of the guys can't be optioned. It looks like the solution has to be making trades.

Here's my take: Position player locks: Buxton, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, Martin, backup catcher, backup infielder. Near locks: Larnach, Wallner, Clemens. Most likely fighting for one spot: Outman, Roden, Julien. Outside looking in: Rodriguez, Gasper, Gonzalez.

As I note here, Julien, Roden and Outman would be in competition for the 13th position player spot. Julien and Outman are out of options, so if one of them didn't make the team, they would have to be offered to the rest of MLB before they could be sent to St. Paul. Top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are also left handed hitting corner outfielders (center field capable). Roden is the only guy in serious consideration for a 26-man roster spot who can be optioned and he also is a left handed corner outfielder. If Roden is optioned the Saints would project to have Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Roden in their outfield.

What is the solution to this roster imbalance? What should the Twins do to deal with this and who stays and who goes? Let's discuss!

[Linus]

Excellent topic and welcome compared to beating various dead horses. I’m afraid I don’t have anything to offer since it’s unclear to me what they are actually trying to do. I know they have stated they are trying to win but I don’t really see it. I think they are trying to not be horrible while making some money in 2026. If this is the case then it doesn’t really matter. If they were really trying to win they would upgrade one of the corner outfield spots via trade or free agency. I knew that was dead when they tendered Larnach. So, since I don’t see them contending I would trade Larnach and Julien if that is even possible and roll with Roden / Martin in left. At least those guys might be part of the future. As crazy as it sounds I would give Outman 2 months to show something but be quick to cut him if he sucks. All of these guys will leave if / when EmRod, Jenkins and GG are ready for the bigs. Overall goal is to have a vision of what the future outfield is going to look like by the end of the year and I doubt any / many of these current MLB guys are part of the plan. There is no there, there. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I recently made a comment on the Josh Bell signing and think his signing makes roster discussion a higher priority here on Twins Daily. Specifically, the Twins have a bunch of left handed hitters who are corner outfielders who could DH and there isn't room for them all. Further, many of the guys can't be optioned. It looks like the solution has to be making trades.

Here's my take: Position player locks: Buxton, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, Martin, backup catcher, backup infielder. Near locks: Larnach, Wallner, Clemens. Most likely fighting for one spot: Outman, Roden, Julien. Outside looking in: Rodriguez, Gasper, Gonzalez.

As I note here, Julien, Roden and Outman would be in competition for the 13th position player spot. Julien and Outman are out of options, so if one of them didn't make the team, they would have to be offered to the rest of MLB before they could be sent to St. Paul. Top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are also left handed hitting corner outfielders (center field capable). Roden is the only guy in serious consideration for a 26-man roster spot who can be optioned and he also is a left handed corner outfielder. If Roden is optioned the Saints would project to have Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Roden in their outfield.

What is the solution to this roster imbalance? What should the Twins do to deal with this and who stays and who goes? Let's discuss!

I feel like for a time Roden or Martin can back up cf prior to Jenkins or Rodriguez debuting. I wouldn’t count on Larnach being here, and I’m not even certain Wallner has a long term place any longer. Julien and Outman both will have to show something to stay on the roster past spring training. 
 

Frankly, if Larnach brings back anything, great. If Wallner gets you a decent reliever, great! I guess I’d lean into players who can be at least average if not better defensively if possible based on who you listed 

[thelanges5]

Larnach + MiLB arm to the Rockies for Vodnik. 

or 

Larnach + MiLB arm to the Padres for Rodriguez or Marinaccio. 
 

If Kreidler can play SS and CF, keep him as the back up and DFA Outman. This open 40 man spot can be used to sign Taylor Clarke to the bullpen for $2.5-$3 mil. 

[stringer bell]

42 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Larnach + MiLB arm to the Rockies for Vodnik. 

or 

Larnach + MiLB arm to the Padres for Rodriguez or Marinaccio. 
 

If Kreidler can play SS and CF, keep him as the back up and DFA Outman. This open 40 man spot can be used to sign Taylor Clarke to the bullpen for $2.5-$3 mil. 

I agree that Larnach would seem the most likely to go. He's coming off a decent year with his most games and plate appearances and he will cost the receiving team a bit more in salary. Even if Larnach is dealt, it would seem that there is no place on the roster for one of Outman/Julien. 

[Mike Sixel]

On 12/20/2025 at 8:18 AM, stringer bell said:

I recently made a comment on the Josh Bell signing and think his signing makes roster discussion a higher priority here on Twins Daily. Specifically, the Twins have a bunch of left handed hitters who are corner outfielders who could DH and there isn't room for them all. Further, many of the guys can't be optioned. It looks like the solution has to be making trades.

Here's my take: Position player locks: Buxton, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, Martin, backup catcher, backup infielder. Near locks: Larnach, Wallner, Clemens. Most likely fighting for one spot: Outman, Roden, Julien. Outside looking in: Rodriguez, Gasper, Gonzalez.

As I note here, Julien, Roden and Outman would be in competition for the 13th position player spot. Julien and Outman are out of options, so if one of them didn't make the team, they would have to be offered to the rest of MLB before they could be sent to St. Paul. Top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are also left handed hitting corner outfielders (center field capable). Roden is the only guy in serious consideration for a 26-man roster spot who can be optioned and he also is a left handed corner outfielder. If Roden is optioned the Saints would project to have Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Roden in their outfield.

What is the solution to this roster imbalance? What should the Twins do to deal with this and who stays and who goes? Let's discuss!

And Mendez in AAA also. It's why keeping larnach made no sense. Their OF is full of similar players in the majors and AAA.  It's a head scratcher for sure. 

[Doctor Wu]

I hope the Twins are able to trade Larnach for something/anything, but methinks the return will be very underwhelming. But the bottom line: he has outlived his usefulness with our team. I don't think Outman is the answer either, but I suppose the Twins need to save face and keep him for another few months. 

[Chembry]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I hope the Twins are able to trade Larnach for something/anything, but methinks the return will be very underwhelming. But the bottom line: he has outlived his usefulness with our team. I don't think Outman is the answer either, but I suppose the Twins need to save face and keep him for another few months. 

At this point, I would argue it doesn't really matter what the return for Larnach would be.  His projected $4.7M salary and roster spot would be best spent upgrading elsewhere.  However, I fear we will be in the same situation we were with Kyle Farmer.  

[Eris]

23 minutes ago, Chembry said:

However, I fear we will be in the same situation we were with Kyle Farmer. 

Farmer could play above average defense at a premium position while Larnach is close to being the worst defender at corner OF. I think your comment is related to amount of $$ being paid to someone who is quite replaceable, in which case I agree. Larnach’s bat is not good enough to be a full time DH and his defense creates negative value. 

[Chembry]

8 minutes ago, Eris said:

Farmer could play above average defense at a premium position while Larnach is close to being the worst defender at corner OF. I think your comment is related to amount of $$ being paid to someone who is quite replaceable, in which case I agree. Larnach’s bat is not good enough to be a full time DH and his defense creates negative value. 

The intent behind the Kyle Farmer comment was two-fold.   

One was that the Twins tendered him a contract while trying to find a trade partner.  Ultimately the Twins weren't able to trade Farmer which could be from a myriad of different reasons.  

The other reason is exactly what you stated.  On top of the Larnach's offensive value essentially being replaceable, his defensive value is a net negative.  Given the status of the roster and the OF prospect depth in AAA, his salary would be better spent on upgrading the roster elsewhere. 

 

[Riverbrian]

I don't worry about having too many left handed bats. Being overly left handed is preferred and not a concern in the slightest. We have been overly right handed for many years and that is much more concerning.  

As far as roster imbalance regardless of what batters box they stand in.

Yep... There is currently an imbalance and the Twins will probably have to make some trades... most likely minor trades because they are keeping the guys with major trade value. 

21 positions players and 19 pitchers on the current 40 man roster. At minimum you'd like to see that reversed. 

At the 1B position: Someone will have to go because you have room for two out of the three 1B candidates Bell, Clemens and Julien. Nothing has to be decided yet for the 40 man roster because injuries between now and opening day can and do occur. However, if all three are still with the club and healthy out of spring training... it will force a 26 man decision because the 26 man roster will only have room for two of the three. Assuming Bell is one... you are choosing between Clemens and Julien. If there is any trade interest in Clemens or Julien... you should probably move one. Otherwise... it will be a simple DFA and waivers for someone.

If we pick up a SS... that will probably knock Kriedler off the 26 man roster and the 40 man roster to clear space. Fitzgerald can be stashed in AAA.  

We currently have 4 catchers on the 40 man. Jeffers, Jackson, Pereda and Gasper. One will certainly have to go.   

On the pitching side: Those 19 pitchers get divided up... 13 starters and 6 relievers. I'd imagine that we will have some starting pitchers to the bullpen conversions to balance out these numbers. This imbalance is why I'm pretty surprised that the Twins have been silent in the reliever free agent market so far. 

I expect some trades before the off-season concludes.

I think they have they to bring in a SS and at least two bullpen arms and what is left in free agency is not going to excite any of us. .    

 

[DocBauer]

This is just my take.

Larnach was kept to "set the floor" before additions were made. So far, we've seen a fairly major one in Bell. I believe they are glong to move him in SOME sort of deal. And this is especially true if they add some sort of RH bat to help at 1B/DH, MAYBE someone who could "handle" 3B or a corner OF spot here and there. 

By himself, he brings in some sort of prospect. Packaged with someone else, he might bring in a decent pen arm. It's also my understanding that until ink is laid to paper, they have the option to just release him and save the $ to be spent elsewhere. I just don't see a fit for him on the '26 roster.

I agree, in general principal, with @Riverbrianthat it's hard to be TOO LH over a 162 game schedule where you face RHP 75% of the time. HOWEVER, by Falvey's own, and rather obvious, admission, the Twins are going to sign at least a couple RP of ML quality and experience. Who and how good remains to be seen.

Right there, 2 guys currently on the 40 man, who don't belong, are going to be gone, regardless of the Larnach situation. Brian and I disagree on Outman as he believes Outman is almost a lock because Falvey traded for him at the deadline last year. However, not only did he continue to be BAD, but Roden and Martin are ALSO players Falvey traded for. And while I loved Stewart, he was an injury waiting to happen, and thus, not a TOP player or prospect.

Honestly not sure why Julien is still on the 40 man, and that makes me sad. And he's out of options. What possible role does he fill for 2026 unless someone is hurt AND he suddenly starts hitting? He's a cut out of ST if not before.

Kriedler remains a mystery to me. The guy would have to field like Ozzie Smith considering how horrendous his bat is. I still suspect they plan to cut him and hope he slides through waivers for St Paul duty. I can see a small deal for a MILB SS from someone, and a possible "Castro hopeful" invite to compete with Kreidler and Fitzgerald for that 2nd utility spot. At least Fitzgerald doesn't embarrass himself at the plate.

They AREN'T going to open the season with Jenkins on the roster for some good reasons. And while I'd really like them to "bite the bullet" and give Rodriguez a job DAY ONE if healthy and having a solid ST, I'm willing to bet he gets a month at AAA.

The OF should be Roden, Martin, Buxton, and Wallner. Roden and Martin aren't ideal CF backups, but they're OK for occasionally duty. And they MIGHT play Keaschall some in the OF, but I think that's a bit misguided, and a bit of smoke as well.

The infield is Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, and Clemens. 

Catcher is set with Jeffers and Jackson.

That's 11 locks. There's room for two more. One is obvious for a utility player who can cover SS. I cringe even considering Kreidler, but I suppose he has to be considered. Fitzgerald isn't quite as good of a glove, but he's the better bat option. And again, they might still uncover another option on a MILB type signing. This is still a mystery spot. And it's really a temporary spot until K-Pepper is ready, or maybe even a surprise like Schobel, who shouldn't be ignored considering his 2025 season before being hurt.

That still leaves ONE addition. 

Yes, despite what I've previously stated, there's potential room for Larnach or Outman to take that final spot. But with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and even Gonzalez sitting at AAA, what role does Outman even have other than as a PR and SUPPOSEDLY good bench defender when he was average at best with the Twins in that role? And why pay Larnach almost $5M to be a DH when 3 of your top 10 prospects are OF and any one of them, and Wallner, and anyone else having a half day off could also DH? So you keep Larnach just to try and trade him at the deadline? I just don't see a logical fit!

Remember when I said it's hard to be too LH? It's true. But this also an opportunity to ADD a decent RH bat who can help at 1B/DH to work along side Bell and Clemens. There has been speculation about Miguel Andujar as an inexpensive option. That might be a smart move if they don't actually trade for a full time 1B option and let Bell be the primary DH.

The last 2 spots are the mystery, otherwise 11 position spots are set. My goodness, I'd welcome a Pedro Florimon option instead of Kreidler as of today, but hope they could uncover a "Castro-lite" somewhere. But I'd take Fitzgerald for my utility man, backup SS at this point.

And for better roster construction, I'd hope they'd just move Larnach and try something different, whether it be long term or short term. And it's not as though I dislike Larnach. I just don't see a roster fit that makes sense.

But the 40 man IS going to look different over the next couple of months as at least 2 ML pen arms are going to be added. And I'm still betting on another BAT being added based on need, and comments from Zoll as to what they are looking for.

So there's a really good chance Larnach, Outman, Gasper, and Julien are all possible drops.

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

This is just my take.

Larnach was kept to "set the floor" before additions were made. So far, we've seen a fairly major one in Bell. I believe they are glong to move him in SOME sort of deal. And this is especially true if they add some sort of RH bat to help at 1B/DH, MAYBE someone who could "handle" 3B or a corner OF spot here and there. 

By himself, he brings in some sort of prospect. Packaged with someone else, he might bring in a decent pen arm. It's also my understanding that until ink is laid to paper, they have the option to just release him and save the $ to be spent elsewhere. I just don't see a fit for him on the '26 roster.

I agree, in general principal, with @Riverbrianthat it's hard to be TOO LH over a 162 game schedule where you face RHP 75% of the time. HOWEVER, by Falvey's own, and rather obvious, admission, the Twins are going to sign at least a couple RP of ML quality and experience. Who and how good remains to be seen.

Right there, 2 guys currently on the 40 man, who don't belong, are going to be gone, regardless of the Larnach situation. Brian and I disagree on Outman as he believes Outman is almost a lock because Falvey traded for him at the deadline last year. However, not only did he continue to be BAD, but Roden and Martin are ALSO players Falvey traded for. And while I loved Stewart, he was an injury waiting to happen, and thus, not a TOP player or prospect.

Honestly not sure why Julien is still on the 40 man, and that makes me sad. And he's out of options. What possible role does he fill for 2026 unless someone is hurt AND he suddenly starts hitting? He's a cut out of ST if not before.

Kriedler remains a mystery to me. The guy would have to field like Ozzie Smith considering how horrendous his bat is. I still suspect they plan to cut him and hope he slides through waivers for St Paul duty. I can see a small deal for a MILB SS from someone, and a possible "Castro hopeful" invite to compete with Kreidler and Fitzgerald for that 2nd utility spot. At least Fitzgerald doesn't embarrass himself at the plate.

They AREN'T going to open the season with Jenkins on the roster for some good reasons. And while I'd really like them to "bite the bullet" and give Rodriguez a job DAY ONE if healthy and having a solid ST, I'm willing to bet he gets a month at AAA.

The OF should be Roden, Martin, Buxton, and Wallner. Roden and Martin aren't ideal CF backups, but they're OK for occasionally duty. And they MIGHT play Keaschall some in the OF, but I think that's a bit misguided, and a bit of smoke as well.

The infield is Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, and Clemens. 

Catcher is set with Jeffers and Jackson.

That's 11 locks. There's room for two more. One is obvious for a utility player who can cover SS. I cringe even considering Kreidler, but I suppose he has to be considered. Fitzgerald isn't quite as good of a glove, but he's the better bat option. And again, they might still uncover another option on a MILB type signing. This is still a mystery spot. And it's really a temporary spot until K-Pepper is ready, or maybe even a surprise like Schobel, who shouldn't be ignored considering his 2025 season before being hurt.

That still leaves ONE addition. 

Yes, despite what I've previously stated, there's potential room for Larnach or Outman to take that final spot. But with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and even Gonzalez sitting at AAA, what role does Outman even have other than as a PR and SUPPOSEDLY good bench defender when he was average at best with the Twins in that role? And why pay Larnach almost $5M to be a DH when 3 of your top 10 prospects are OF and any one of them, and Wallner, and anyone else having a half day off could also DH? So you keep Larnach just to try and trade him at the deadline? I just don't see a logical fit!

Remember when I said it's hard to be too LH? It's true. But this also an opportunity to ADD a decent RH bat who can help at 1B/DH to work along side Bell and Clemens. There has been speculation about Miguel Andujar as an inexpensive option. That might be a smart move if they don't actually trade for a full time 1B option and let Bell be the primary DH.

The last 2 spots are the mystery, otherwise 11 position spots are set. My goodness, I'd welcome a Pedro Florimon option instead of Kreidler as of today, but hope they could uncover a "Castro-lite" somewhere. But I'd take Fitzgerald for my utility man, backup SS at this point.

And for better roster construction, I'd hope they'd just move Larnach and try something different, whether it be long term or short term. And it's not as though I dislike Larnach. I just don't see a roster fit that makes sense.

But the 40 man IS going to look different over the next couple of months as at least 2 ML pen arms are going to be added. And I'm still betting on another BAT being added based on need, and comments from Zoll as to what they are looking for.

So there's a really good chance Larnach, Outman, Gasper, and Julien are all possible drops.

I read all of your posts... you are one of the good eggs on this website. 

There has been a new development since the original off-season what do you do with Larnach  discussion. 

The new development. The Twins are going for it. It's not what I would do but I know I have to adjust to this reality. 

My prediction is that rookies on the offense side will go to the back of the line and wait for injuries. 

This re-tool began at the trade deadline and it ended at the trade deadline.

Additional young prospects will not be acquired. At least not until the trade deadline. 

 

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I read all of your posts... you are one of the good eggs on this website. 

There has been a new development since the original off-season what do you do with Larnach  discussion. 

The new development. The Twins are going for it. It's not what I would do but I know I have to adjust to this reality. 

My prediction is that rookies on the offense side will go to the back of the line and wait for injuries. 

This re-tool began at the trade deadline and it ended at the trade deadline.

Additional young prospects will not be acquired. At least not until the trade deadline. 

 

I hope your wrong. With all due respect to Martin and Roden...who I think have a chance to be solid, ML players...neither has the potential of Rodriguez or Jenkins. Only waiting for injuries for a promotion of young talent is never thr smart way to go.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I hope your wrong. With all due respect to Martin and Roden...who I think have a chance to be solid, ML players...neither has the potential of Rodriguez or Jenkins. Only waiting for injuries for a promotion of young talent is never thr smart way to go.

The Twins way!

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I hope your wrong. With all due respect to Martin and Roden...who I think have a chance to be solid, ML players...neither has the potential of Rodriguez or Jenkins. Only waiting for injuries for a promotion of young talent is never thr smart way to go.

If it was me.

I'd flood the thing with young talent and let the success/failure ratio of that young talent propel you forward and whatever happens in 2026... happens. 

2026 might be rough... it might be average... it might be surprising so I'd make no predictions on next year. However... I'd be willing to predict that you will get where you want to go quicker. 

This scraping 20 million together to fill multiple holes very thinly is... not a good idea and an idea that has been tried every year since they ran out of money when the RSN's collapsed and failed each year. This time they are going for it just like they went for it last year minus Carlos Correa and almost the entire bullpen.   

If they are not willing to trade Joe Ryan or Lopez and by all reports... they are not willing. There is only one way to see it and that is... they are without a shadow of a doubt... going for it. They are going to reduce Joe Ryan's sky high trade value in an attempt to go for it. If it doesn't work... Joe won't be worth what he was and the return is less. Joe Ryan is a chance to land another Walker Jenkins type talent. If he needs Tommy John next year... it will be the equivalent of losing a Walker Jenkins type talent. 

The only hope we have is that after Framber and Ranger sign deals and the top of the market free agent starter pile shrinks to the point that the pressure to acquire starting pitching turns to the trade market and inflates Ryan's value enough for them to change their mind. 

However... If they are going for it. If Ryan is a Twin on opening day. It changes the context surrounding Larnach as he becomes more important than any of us argued about him earlier.

Larnach will have the 2026 going for it on his back. Larnach will have the loss of Ryan's trade value on his back. Larnach becomes critical for the deepening of the lineup necessary to GO FOR IT so you don't waste Joe Ryan's trade value failing in your go for it attempt. 

I have no idea whose idea this is. Pohlad Du Jour or Falvey? 

Erod and GG will get a chance to prove themselves when the injuries occur. Staying after the call up will depend on them and the other outfielders. Jenkins will probably have to rock St. Paul to force his jumping ahead of Erod and GG. 

Meanwhile I'm watching the Cardinals cash in and we will see who reaches the playoffs first. I'll bet on the Cardinals. I hope I'm wrong but... Yeah... I'll bet on the Cardinals.  

[SteveLV]

"Pohlad du Jour".  Best shot of the day!

[Parfigliano]

57 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If it was me.

I'd flood the thing with young talent and let the success/failure ratio of that young talent propel you forward and whatever happens in 2026... happens. 

2026 might be rough... it might be average... it might be surprising so I'd make no predictions on next year. However... I'd be willing to predict that you will get where you want to go quicker. 

This scraping 20 million together to fill multiple holes very thinly is... not a good idea and an idea that has been tried every year since they ran out of money when the RSN's collapsed and failed each year. This time they are going for it just like they went for it last year minus Carlos Correa and almost the entire bullpen.   

If they are not willing to trade Joe Ryan or Lopez and by all reports... they are not willing. There is only one way to see it and that is... they are without a shadow of a doubt... going for it. They are going to reduce Joe Ryan's sky high trade value in an attempt to go for it. If it doesn't work... Joe won't be worth what he was and the return is less. Joe Ryan is a chance to land another Walker Jenkins type talent. If he needs Tommy John next year... it will be the equivalent of losing a Walker Jenkins type talent. 

The only hope we have is that after Framber and Ranger sign deals and the top of the market free agent starter pile shrinks to the point that the pressure to acquire starting pitching turns to the trade market and inflates Ryan's value enough for them to change their mind. 

However... If they are going for it. If Ryan is a Twin on opening day. It changes the context surrounding Larnach as he becomes more important than any of us argued about him earlier.

Larnach will have the 2026 going for it on his back. Larnach will have the loss of Ryan's trade value on his back. Larnach becomes critical for the deepening of the lineup necessary to GO FOR IT so you don't waste Joe Ryan's trade value failing in your go for it attempt. 

I have no idea whose idea this is. Pohlad Du Jour or Falvey? 

Erod and GG will get a chance to prove themselves when the injuries occur. Staying after the call up will depend on them and the other outfielders. Jenkins will probably have to rock St. Paul to force his jumping ahead of Erod and GG. 

Meanwhile I'm watching the Cardinals cash in and we will see who reaches the playoffs first. I'll bet on the Cardinals. I hope I'm wrong but... Yeah... I'll bet on the Cardinals.  

If they are going for it in 2026 they are delusional.

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

If they are going for it in 2026 they are delusional.

I'm certainly skeptical.

Even if they are successful they will have to repeat a similar process the following year. 

It's always fun to watch that cat hanging by a claw pull itself to safety the first time.

The 2nd time you have to wonder what the Cat is doing. 

The 3rd time... you just give up on the cat. 

[bunsen82]

11 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

If they are going for it in 2026 they are delusional.

They are putting as good of a product out there for 2 reasons.  Pohlads to try to increase ticket sales.  Falvey,  trying to save his job.  You have 2 different reasons as to why they are doing what they are doing even if it isn't the best option long term.   

Lets look at what we have.  

Guaranteed roster -  Jeffers, Jackson, Bell, Clemens, Keashall, Lee, Lewis,  Buxton Larnach, Wallner, Martin

Bench, optioned or waived - Roden, Outman, Kriedler, Gasper, Fitzgerald, Julien

 

I really think Roden is in the plans for this year.   Larnach seems to be the most likely to be moved but this feels like a redux of Kyle Farmer.   I'm not sure you get the value for Larnach.  Someone may be willing to pay up more for a Roden,  although more of his shine has rubbed off since the trade deadline.   The more and more I think about, if you need to trade an outfielder,  Wallner may be the better option.  Granted if he does better in the 1st half he has more value.   The outfield is a mess, but other than Roden in the bench, optioned or waived category,  none of the other players have any value.   

My guess is we effectively run with the above with a utility player traded for or signed.     With Rodriguez the 1st option to come up due to injury or underperformance.  

[Riverbrian]

43 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

They are putting as good of a product out there for 2 reasons.  Pohlads to try to increase ticket sales.  Falvey,  trying to save his job.  You have 2 different reasons as to why they are doing what they are doing even if it isn't the best option long term.   

I've thought a lot about the why? 

These two things you mention were certainly plausible explanations that I thought about.

A. I don't believe that it will increase ticket sales. They would have a better chance at increasing ticket sales with a real good marketing campaign, more bobblehead nights and Snoop Dogg after the game.     

B. Here's what I'd like to see. An owner that gives the front office the security to do what NEEDS to be done.  

Desperation always sets in when third chances are given. If the front office doesn't have the security to do what needs to be done. Just make the change and let someone else start fresh.  

I'm going to torture this next part but... I'm willing to torture. 

That desperation reminds me of a painful series of downs that I witnessed at a huge football game this year. 

My team was first and goal from the 3 yard line. Everybody is thinking... run the ball straight ahead 3 times or 4 times if you have to and get that TD.

Instead they threw the ball three times for three incompletions and settled for a what was a missed FG and the air went out of the building. Ended up losing by 5 points in a huge game.   

On 1st down. I'm sure they thought they had a high chance of success since everyone is thinking run. Incomplete. 

2nd Down... I'm thinking that they have to run now because everyone is really thinking that they have to run now. So they threw the ball again. Incomplete. 

Now it's third down... Now they have to throw. 3 yards on the ground is never guaranteed. 

I was trying to justify in my head what the OC was thinking... give him the benefit of the doubt and that was the best I could come up with. 

Well... Falvey called a pass play on first down in 2024 and and 2nd down in 2025. Both were incomplete. 

It's third down now... in 2026. Now they gotta pass.  

In a nutshell and the reason for that tortured metaphor...

I worry that 2024 and 2025 is causing this 2026 approach out of desperation.   

[bunsen82]

27 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've thought a lot about the why? 

These two things you mention were certainly plausible explanations that I thought about.

A. I don't believe that it will increase ticket sales. They would have a better chance at increasing ticket sales with a real good marketing campaign, more bobblehead nights and Snoop Dogg after the game.     

B. Here's what I'd like to see. An owner that gives the front office the security to do what NEEDS to be done.  

Desperation always sets in when third chances are given. If the front office doesn't have the security to do what needs to be done. Just make the change and let someone else start fresh.  

I'm going to torture this next part but... I'm willing to torture. 

That desperation reminds me of a painful series of downs that I witnessed at a huge football game this year. 

My team was first and goal from the 3 yard line. Everybody is thinking... run the ball straight ahead 3 times or 4 times if you have to and get that TD.

Instead they threw the ball three times for three incompletions and settled for a what was a missed FG and the air went out of the building. Ended up losing by 5 points in a huge game.   

On 1st down. I'm sure they thought they had a high chance of success since everyone is thinking run. Incomplete. 

2nd Down... I'm thinking that they have to run now because everyone is really thinking that they have to run now. So they threw the ball again. Incomplete. 

Now it's third down... Now they have to throw. 3 yards on the ground is never guaranteed. 

I was trying to justify in my head what the OC was thinking... give him the benefit of the doubt and that was the best I could come up with. 

Well... Falvey called a pass play on first down in 2024 and and 2nd down in 2025. Both were incomplete. 

It's third down now... in 2026. Now they gotta pass.  

In a nutshell and the reason for that tortured metaphor...

I worry that 2024 and 2025 is causing this 2026 approach out of desperation.   

I am not willing to kick Falvey to the curb because the 24 and 25 teams didn't meet expectations.  It happens,  but whether some want to admit it or not - The organization is likely in its best shape for long term success that it has had since Falvey took over.   

You may disagree but we have an absolutely a crapload of highend arms in the minors.  

Pitching - Rojas, Hill, Priellip, Quick, Soto -  add in Festa, Matthews, Bradley and Abel.  Young pitchers  Reitz, Ellwanger and Barr.      

Hitters -  Jenkins Culpepper and Rodriguez   Gonzalez.    Then some high ceiling players in Young and Winokur.  Add in Mendez who has a really really good bat.     There are other position players but those are the most likely to make an impact.  I don't know that we have had 7 or more players at all levels in the minors who had the potential like this and we should be adding another extremely good class of prospects in the next draft.      

The minors is pretty well balanced,  we will have ample opportunity for the young players.     Falvey developed this,  I am willing to see if he can finish the remake of the Twins.   

We aren't succeeding in 2026, and I am ok with that.   I am ok with watching some decent baseball for the 1st half of the season.  Most likely we will be trading 1 or more of Jeffers, Ryan, Buxton, Lopez and Ober.  We will see.   

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I am not willing to kick Falvey to the curb because the 24 and 25 teams didn't meet expectations.  It happens,  but whether some want to admit it or not - The organization is likely in its best shape for long term success that it has had since Falvey took over.   

You may disagree but we have an absolutely a crapload of highend arms in the minors.  

Pitching - Rojas, Hill, Priellip, Quick, Soto -  add in Festa, Matthews, Bradley and Abel.  Young pitchers  Reitz, Ellwanger and Barr.      

Hitters -  Jenkins Culpepper and Rodriguez   Gonzalez.    Then some high ceiling players in Young and Winokur.  Add in Mendez who has a really really good bat.     There are other position players but those are the most likely to make an impact.  I don't know that we have had 7 or more players at all levels in the minors who had the potential like this and we should be adding another extremely good class of prospects in the next draft.      

The minors is pretty well balanced,  we will have ample opportunity for the young players.     Falvey developed this,  I am willing to see if he can finish the remake of the Twins.   

We aren't succeeding in 2026, and I am ok with that.   I am ok with watching some decent baseball for the 1st half of the season.  Most likely we will be trading 1 or more of Jeffers, Ryan, Buxton, Lopez and Ober.  We will see.   

I don't disagree or agree in regards to the current shape of the organization. I've been reading the reports for quite some time. The minor league system has always been rated fairly strong for quite some time but here we are... talking again about... yeah... this next group though. I've waited for the core to form but it's been nothing but patchwork with the position players. 

I think the pitching will be fine because they will get opportunity and there are some good young arms that I have watched take the mound. The pitchers have to get exposed, they really can't be hid and they will learn on the job and get better.   

Position players are easily stashed, hid, stripped for parts and that is what they have been doing. The select few that they have actually flung forward without restrictions haven't become what we need them to become. 

Even with all of that... I still want the Twins to just throw youth at the problem. Trade Ryan for the biggest baddest prospect hitter they can find. Get another Jenkins type talent to throw at the problem. 

Someday... Maybe Someday... We can stop with the Ty France's.  

[bunsen82]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't disagree or agree in regards to the current shape of the organization. I've been reading the reports for quite some time. The minor league system has always been rated fairly strong for quite some time but here we are... talking again about... yeah... this next group though. I've waited for the core to form but it's been nothing but patchwork with the position players. 

I think the pitching will be fine because they will get opportunity and there are some good young arms that I have watched take the mound. The pitchers have to get exposed, they really can't be hid and they will learn on the job and get better.   

Position players are easily stashed, hid, stripped for parts and that is what they have been doing. The select few that they have actually flung forward without restrictions haven't become what we need them to become. 

Even with all of that... I still want the Twins to just throw youth at the problem. Trade Ryan for the biggest baddest prospect hitter they can find. Get another Jenkins type talent to throw at the problem. 

Someday... Maybe Someday... We can stop with the Ty France's.  

They were last in the top 5 in 2015 led by Buxton and Sano. 2020 was the last time we had a top 10 farm system. Otherwise we have been in the teens a lot. We will graduate some talent this year. This draft class should give us another top 2 prospect in our system.  By the end of this year, I expect 3 of the following pitchers to have very good years- Priellip, Soto, Hill, Quick, Barr Ellwanger and Reitz. By really good I mean pushing top 100 lists.  
 

I agree we should trade Ryan now for an elite talent.  We shouldn’t half measure this. Load up this year prospects, trade at deadline Ober or Lopez and Buxton, start the youth movement and have 1 more really good draft in 2027. At that point we can supplement 2027 with free agents.  

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If it was me.

I'd flood the thing with young talent and let the success/failure ratio of that young talent propel you forward and whatever happens in 2026... happens. 

2026 might be rough... it might be average... it might be surprising so I'd make no predictions on next year. However... I'd be willing to predict that you will get where you want to go quicker. 

This scraping 20 million together to fill multiple holes very thinly is... not a good idea and an idea that has been tried every year since they ran out of money when the RSN's collapsed and failed each year. This time they are going for it just like they went for it last year minus Carlos Correa and almost the entire bullpen.   

If they are not willing to trade Joe Ryan or Lopez and by all reports... they are not willing. There is only one way to see it and that is... they are without a shadow of a doubt... going for it. They are going to reduce Joe Ryan's sky high trade value in an attempt to go for it. If it doesn't work... Joe won't be worth what he was and the return is less. Joe Ryan is a chance to land another Walker Jenkins type talent. If he needs Tommy John next year... it will be the equivalent of losing a Walker Jenkins type talent. 

The only hope we have is that after Framber and Ranger sign deals and the top of the market free agent starter pile shrinks to the point that the pressure to acquire starting pitching turns to the trade market and inflates Ryan's value enough for them to change their mind. 

However... If they are going for it. If Ryan is a Twin on opening day. It changes the context surrounding Larnach as he becomes more important than any of us argued about him earlier.

Larnach will have the 2026 going for it on his back. Larnach will have the loss of Ryan's trade value on his back. Larnach becomes critical for the deepening of the lineup necessary to GO FOR IT so you don't waste Joe Ryan's trade value failing in your go for it attempt. 

I have no idea whose idea this is. Pohlad Du Jour or Falvey? 

Erod and GG will get a chance to prove themselves when the injuries occur. Staying after the call up will depend on them and the other outfielders. Jenkins will probably have to rock St. Paul to force his jumping ahead of Erod and GG. 

Meanwhile I'm watching the Cardinals cash in and we will see who reaches the playoffs first. I'll bet on the Cardinals. I hope I'm wrong but... Yeah... I'll bet on the Cardinals.  

Great take, even if we have slightly different ideas on the best course of action. I'm totally with you on playing the younger kids and let's develop them and see what they've got. It's why I've argued to get Rodriguez up day one if he's healthy and has a good ST. I doubt they do that, however. But get him and Jenkins up SOON, assuming good health and production like I expect out of them. And we should could use Gonzalez RH bat at some point as well. And while we're at it, if K-Pepper continues to look as good as he is, get him by July. Suddenly the INF looks better, deeper, and we may not have to worry about who they get to start the season at utility.

I continue to maintain this is going to be a season of 2 parts: who opens on the roster will end up be different than who finishes the season. That's why I personally am not opposed to a handful of 1yr deals like Bell, and a couple decent pen arms to allow a couple of kids in AAA a little more time to throw, work on a couple of things, adjust to being a reliever, and then get THEM UP also. 

Things could blow up. I hope they don't. But let's get the prospects in the lineup and in the pen sooner rather than later. You can have a decent team that is hopefully in contention for a winning season, while still balancing 2027 and the future at the same time if you do it right. And by doing it right, I mean Falvey getting over his obsession with holding on to poor veteran depth for the sake of depth. All that does is keep you spinning wheels in neutral, and holding back the future.

 

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The Twins way!

You're right. To some degree it HAS been the Twins way. As previously stated, holding on to poor veteran depth for the sake has been a paranoia issue with Falvey. And I sorta get it when you look back at a couple previous seasons where injuries just decimated the team. 

I think back to 2022...my first and so far only visit to Target Field...where the Twins had a starting OF of mostly LH journeymen starting against a LH pitcher from the Rangers. So I can somewhat appreciate his paranoia to a degree. But this is going to be 2026. And a lot has changed since then. Depending on what prospect list you want to agree with, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Mendez, Abel, and Morris are All top 10-12 prospects and ALL scheduled to be at St Paul to begin the season, or just about to be there in the case of K-Pepper and Mendez.

It's time to move on from Larnach...a solid player I actually like, but doesn't FIT...and no more Outman types clogging up the roster. Sorry to say, but that includes Julien as well, barring a sudden, MASSIVE turnaround. 

Martin looks like a ML player now. Roden has the skills to be a valuable 4th OF who should ALSO be used at 1B, since he can play it, and it increases his value.

But NO MORE poor "veteran" depth options. There's no need! Bell, maybe another BAT that might still come on board, and a couple solid 1yr deal relievers make sense to BRIDGE the collection of prospects that will be knocking on the door, as well as the pen conversion arms you might not want to give a primary job opening day.

Falvey and his staff and scouts have collected the young talent. And I believe his butt is on a "hot seat" in regard to him continuing to run the baseball side of the organization. So it is especially pertinent for him to get over his damned paranoia, and for him and Zoll...who's power and influence we really don't know...to GET OVER THEMSELVES and recognize it's time to get the younger players up as soon as they look ready. 

A decent, solid, productive and even competitive season doesn't mean the opening day roster is the one you finish with. Holding back the future only holds back the future, and the potential of such.

This time next season, we could realistically be looking to just fill a hole or two if the FO does their job properly in 2025.

We can hope, right?

[Riverbrian]

14 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

They were last in the top 5 in 2015 led by Buxton and Sano. 2020 was the last time we had a top 10 farm system. Otherwise we have been in the teens a lot. We will graduate some talent this year. This draft class should give us another top 2 prospect in our system.  By the end of this year, I expect 3 of the following pitchers to have very good years- Priellip, Soto, Hill, Quick, Barr Ellwanger and Reitz. By really good I mean pushing top 100 lists.  
 

I agree we should trade Ryan now for an elite talent.  We shouldn’t half measure this. Load up this year prospects, trade at deadline Ober or Lopez and Buxton, start the youth movement and have 1 more really good draft in 2027. At that point we can supplement 2027 with free agents.  

I love your optimism. I'm trying to hold mine but the fear of something unidentified yet systemic is weighing heavy on my optimism. 

Those rankings are interesting to read every year. The Pre-season Rankings... The Mid Season Rankings all produced by different publications. I know the difference between 2 and 8 is 6 spots and the difference between 8 and 18 is 10 spots but what I don't know is the actual difference between 2 and 8 or the difference between 1 and 30 for that matter and in the end does any of that matter anyway because hindsight kind of tells a different story when it's all said and done. 

The 2020 Twins Ranked 8th according to Callis, Mayo and Rosenbaum on MLB.com. That lofty ranking was buoyed by a top ten of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, Jeffers, Cavaco, Javier, Enlow and Thorpe. 

4 of 10 remain in the majors. 

The Orioles were ranked 13th in 2020 5 spots below the Twins. 10 of the top 12 that year are in the majors. 11 out of 14 if you stretch to 14th ranked Kyle Stowers. Disclaimer: 14 was specifically chosen by me to stretch and include Kyle Stowers of the Orioles in order to support my point. 

If I go to top 14 for the Twins to keep the numbers equal. We can add Rooker and Wallner to make it 6 out of 14 in the majors.  We can dissect the 6 Twins players out of the top 14. Lewis, Larnach, Duran, Jeffers, Rooker and Wallner. It could be argued that the best two players out of those 6 players were Duran and Rooker and interestingly enough, they are the two players out of the 6 not on the team. 

The #1 Ranked team in 2020 was the Rays: The top 6 for the Rays that year were: Franco, McKay, Brujan, Edwards, Baz and Honeywell. Baz and Edwards are major league players. OK... maybe Brujan can be included since he is sitting on the Braves current 26 man after he was claimed on waivers last year. That Rays class did have a run of success with prospects ranked 7 and 8 and 9 (McClanahan, Joe Ryan and Josh Lowe) Nothing from 10 to 14. 6 players produced by the top ranked team in 2020. Only McClanahan and Lowe remains for the Rays. Yeah Franco was a sad story but I think we can look back in hindsight and say it wasn't a strong class despite it's #1 ranking that year. Baz has just produced a bunch of prospects who are currently #7, #8, #13 and #22 in the Rays system who could be in the next wave. Edwards produced #16 in the Rays system for the next wave. The Rays have to keep the waves coming.  

We could go through all teams 1 through 30 and see the actual results. 30 BTW was the BREWERS! The team living off their farm system. The top 30 names are not impressive but year after year the Brewers commit to affordable players with years of control.  

This long post wasn't necessary because you are a smart poster who probably already understood the reason for my development caution and I didn't really have to list all of this to explain my caution.

Despite my caution that I come by honestly from watching highly ranked prospects not perform like we all constantly hope for. Despite that caution... I still say the best way to get through what the Twins are going through is to flood the system with young players and let the success/failure ratio eliminate and identify holes. Some people think that the solution to youth struggle at the majors is to turn down the dial. I think the answer to development is turn up the dial. 

Bottom Line: The Twins development with position players has not been good and I don't know why. Is Shelton right when he says the jump from AAA to MLB is just the hardest thing ever. It certainly might explain Minnesota and Pittsburgh but it sure doesn't explain Milwaukee and Cleveland.

Or is just deep rooted philosophy. They just trust Ty France over what they produce on the farm because they gotta scrape for every inch just to get the occasional W.

It sure seems like the Twins have opted to turn down the dial on prospects as a response. as they keep that 4 million to 7 million dollar affordable vet dial up.    

My faith isn't there and Josh Bell isn't providing me with faith. Not trading Joe Ryan isn't providing me faith. Going for it... isn't providing me faith.

2nd Ranked farm system right now... that's awesome. They still have to develop it and they can't seem to get past AAA.   

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

You're right. To some degree it HAS been the Twins way.

Seems like a number of players in club history were plugged into the starting lineup over the years. Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Bert Blyleven, and Butch Winegar from the 60s and 70s. Hrbek, Puckett, and more from the 80s. Joe Mauer. In Mauer's case the Twins traded an All Star catcher to make room for him in the lineup. An equivalent example for 2025 would be trading Byron Buxton to put Walker Jenkins in the lineup. NO. I am not suggesting that. There are two open spots currently in the outfield.  There have been many examples over the years. Some failed such as the Japanese signing who was injured after struggling. However, it was not the Twins way before the current regime

We are in Year 10 of the Falvey Era. I'm trying to remember what player was put in the rotation similar to Bert, into the lineup like Carew, or what player was traded to make way for a prospect who then was anointed as a starter. Put in the lineup means they play for two months no matter what. There must be someone. Who?

The current Twins are extremely risk adverse. The big pickup this winter is Josh Bell, a DH. So it goes.

[bunsen82]

@Riverbrian I agree with most of what you said.  The biggest point is what is the difference between a top 10 prospect vs a top 50. To me it more comes from what level of prospect. 
 

There is a fangraphs article from earlier this year.  A level  65 prospect has a 33% chance of becoming a star for positional player and it falls off immensely.  For pitchers it’s much more equal, 25% for a 60- 50 level prospect it’s effectively the same chances of a star with a higher flameout rate of the lower level prospect. Other than Lewis and Walker we haven’t really had an elite prospect. That’s been the knock on the system, decent depth not the elite player. 
 

If you want a hot take, I think Correa was a horrible influence for young players. I think his focus was swing as hard as you can and forget about being a balanced hitter. Miranda had 1 elite year, but is based on contact and spraying the ball, not power. Suddenly Correa becomes his best friend and he is trying to crush and pull everything and he completely lost his identity and confidence. I see the same issues with Lewis. When he came up he was a balanced hitter. He had some success crushing balls inside, then has completely lost the ability to hit an outside pitch. 
 

I know the game is difficult and there will be flameouts. I have always said it’s about increasing your odds.  Same as the draft. For me there are 2 elite shortstops right now and I hope we get 1 of them. 

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

 

If you want a hot take, I think Correa was a horrible influence for young players.

My experience would say this is as close to impossible as it gets. Premier athletes, and all professional athletes are outstanding even if they are on a spectrum amongst themselves, have confidence and people they listen to for advice. They also have a sense of their own strengths and weaknesses. Just because  a Correa, Buxton, Judge, Ohtani, or some such superstar has something to say, a player is not going to abandon all prior voices and knowledge. While it may be possible for a player to become a groupie, it isn't very plausible. If Correa was capable of being a bad influence on any specific player, then so was anyone else that player came in contact with, from an agent to the venders selling beer. There are people who are incompetent and/or gullible everywhere. That includes athletes, CEO's, POBO's, and so forth. I understand the disappointment from Twins fans that Correa could not lead the team to the promised land, but he wasn't responsible for how other players performed. He had his own problems.