ZiPS Sees Paths Forward for the 2026 Twins Despite Familiar Questions

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

FanGraphs released its annual ZiPS projections this week, giving Twins fans their first broad statistical snapshot of what the 2026 season could look like. ZiPS, created by Dan Szymborski, is a projection system that blends recent performance, aging curves, historical comps, and a healthy dose of probabilistic modeling to estimate future value. It is not a prediction set in stone, but it does offer a valuable lens for identifying strengths, weaknesses, and areas where upside may be hiding.

For the Twins, ZiPS paints a picture that feels familiar. There are clear problem areas, a few positions of relative strength, and a farm system that still drives significant optimism.

Problem Positions
Shortstop and left field stand out as the thinnest areas on the roster. Brooks Lee is projected as the primary shortstop, and while ZiPS sees him as playable, it does not treat the position as a strength. Lee’s bat (83 OPS+) profiles better than his defense (-5 Def), and the overall projection reflects a player who can hold his own but may not elevate the lineup.

Left field is even murkier with a combined 0.8 fWAR. The current mix of Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, James Outman, and Alan Roden projects as serviceable but uninspiring. ZiPS does not see a clear above-average regular in that group. Minnesota does have high-end prospects who could eventually change the picture (see below), but most of that help is more realistic for the second half of the season rather than Opening Day.

Top Positions
At the top of the list is Byron Buxton, who is coming off arguably the best season of his career. ZiPS still likes his overall impact (119 OPS+, 3.0 WAR), but the ever-present health concerns naturally cap expectations for his playing time (473 PA). The hope is that he can come close to repeating last season’s All-Star and Silver Slugger level production, though nothing about Buxton has ever come with guarantees, especially as he gets further into his 30s.

Second base checks in as the Twins’ second strongest position. Luke Keaschall is projected to handle the bulk of the workload and comes in with a 106 OPS+ and 1.8 fWAR. Edouard Julien is projected for 1.2 fWAR, a number that feels optimistic after his uneven 2025 campaign, but ZiPS continues to believe in the underlying offensive skill set. Minnesota has talked about Keaschall getting time in the outfield, so that might help the team’s glaring hole in left field.

Top Prospects Get Mixed Reviews
ZiPS is particularly bullish on Kaelen Culpepper, projecting him for 1.9 fWAR in 510 PA. That raises an interesting question about how aggressively the Twins plan to push him, given that he finished last season at Double-A. The Twins are comfortable letting Lee ride at shortstop for now, and it seems more likely for Culpepper to get 200 PA or fewer in 2026. Injuries could always impact that number, but there is no reason to rush one of their top prospects.

The system also sees potential in Emmanuel Rodriguez, assuming health cooperates. ZiPS projects a 98 OPS+ and 1.3 fWAR, ranking in the team’s top-10 in position player WAR. There is a scenario where he could claim left field quickly if things break right. Walker Jenkins, on the other hand, receives a more cautious outlook with a 93 three-year OPS+, signaling some uncertainty about how soon his elite tools will fully translate.

Starting Pitching for Days
Where ZiPS really lights up is the rotation. Bailey Ober’s projection leans more on his broader track record than his 2025 struggles, viewing him as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm (102 ERA+, 4.20 FIP). ZiPS is also enthusiastic about Zebby Matthews, projecting a 110 ERA+. Simeon Woods Richardson at 104 ERA+, Taj Bradley at 101 ERA+, and Mick Abel at 97 ERA+ all come in as valuable contributors. The common thread is depth, as the system clearly likes the organization’s pitching inventory across the majors and upper minors.

Minnesota’s bullpen carries far more uncertainty than the rotation. ZiPS views Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Eric Orze as capable setup caliber options rather than true late inning anchors. Sands stands out with the third best projected ERA+ on the roster, a sign that ZiPS is buying into the adjustments he made over the second half. Topa, Funderburk, and Orze all land at a 107 ERA+, suggesting steady but unspectacular production. The hope is that the Twins supplement this group with additional veteran arms while continuing to lean on the front office’s recent success in turning Triple-A depth into usable bullpen contributors.

In the end, ZiPS offers a reminder not to let frustration define expectations. As Szymborski put it, “The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability.”

His perspective neatly sums up the tension surrounding this roster. The ZiPS projections are not screaming contender, with a win total estimated between 78 and 84, but they are not confirming a lost cause either. There are obvious holes, particularly on the left side of the defense and in the corner outfield, yet there is also enough pitching depth and prospect-driven upside to envision a better outcome if a few things break right.

For a Twins team trying to reset expectations after a disappointing year, ZiPS offers something closer to cautious encouragement than cold reality, and that may be exactly what this fan base needs heading into the spring.

What stands out about Minnesota’s ZiPS projections? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[mikelink45]

Let's see - the projections have us with a below average SS, LF,BP and there is nothing about RF.  

The best projection is for someone who will probably be in St Paul - Culpepper.

And they want to believe that Ober will not be the pitcher he was last year - I hope that is true. 

Overall Zips provided talking points, but otherwise it does not really project hope. 

[LambchoP]

Seems a bit overly optimistic to me. No bullpen, some questions about the infield and corner OF. Seems like we're really hoping for our young prospects to break out and be big league contributes right away ...

[NYCTK]

Zips also had the Twins bullpen as elite the last couple years. 

Biggest issue with these projections, they view everything as parts, not able to actually look at a sum. This team will have a terrible infield defense, and Matt Wallner still penciled in the outfield. How is that going to ripple to outcomes for the pitchers? 

I remember distinctly the terrible game in Florida where Trevor Larnach was unable to track a pair of outfield flys on back to back pitches that ended up inflating Funderburks season ending ERA from 2.63 to where it ended at 3.51. 

Bad defense, back to back pitches, inflated the ERA of one player nearly a full run. Now, the more important fact is that game was made out of reach, rather than someone's personal stats being messed up. But the point remains. 

What sort of impact will the defense of Lee, Keaschall, Bell, Wallner, Martin, et al have on the numbers of the decent pitching staff? 

[LastOnePicked]

"Cautious optimism" at this point is another way of saying "false hope."

This is a team without a single elite position player and far more question marks than answers in the rotation. And don't get anyone started on the bullpen. And the defense is best described as "woof."

This whole "we think we're still close to contending" turn of the offseason is really sad to watch. It's like an alcoholic friend who's trying to convince you they're ready to turn the corner, but their fridge is still full of six packs.

84 wins for this club? No. 

[DJL44]

I will take the under on the projections of 1.3 WAR for Outman, 1.2 WAR for Julien, 1.1 WAR for Keirsey and 1.0 WAR for Gasper. For reference, Royce Lewis has a 1.4 WAR projection.

It is interesting that ZIPS thinks Emmanuel Rodriguez is a better player on offense and defense than Outman.

Kody Clemens projects as the best glove on the entire team.

I think they're too pessimistic on Austin Martin (0.3 WAR).

[Mike Sixel]

Zips change at first base after signing Bell - 0 change. Literally the same number as before. 7 million well spent!

[hlsballer318]

King Julien comeback season

[nicksaviking]

Well it makes sense when you consider that ZiPS has always liked the Twins prospects better than the Twins prospects have actually performed.

Which was always a reason to think that it was very possible it was the Twins coaching staff that was the main problem. ZiPS and all the national prospect evaluators always being wrong about every Twins hitting prospect seemed like a pretty big coincidence. The odds would have suggested they'd have hit on at least a few. 

[saviking]

ZIPPIDY DO DA

[TopGunn#22]

Goodness, I'd be pushing the ZIPS projections as hard as I could for possible trades of Bailey Ober as well as Eddie Julien and James Outman as throw-ins.  

And to be giving Culpepper 510 AB's when he has yet to have a AAA at bat?  I'd love to know how the "modeling" came up with that.  

Ober really should be traded. He's just standing in the way of a young pitcher, be it Bradley, Matthews, SWR or Mick Abel.  Ober DOES have some value at a #4 or #5 with the potential to be a #3 if all goes well.  But if the plan is to hang on to Ryan and Lopez, as well as Buxton, the asset to be marketed is Ober.

The D-Backs are desperate for SP.  They just brought back 37 year old Merrill Kelly while Zac Gallen won't be back.  I'd love to trade Ober for Jordan Lawler and have an open SS competition in spring training with Lawler and Lee.  Maybe the loser plays 2B and Keaschall turns the weakness of LF into a strength.  

[DocBauer]

I tend to agree with the final record projection. And I agree with optimism for some players rebounding for better 2026 numbers. Chief in that inclusion is Wallner, Lewis, and Ober. But I disagree HOW they came up with their projections.

I completely disagree with any positive numbers from Outman and Julien, who I frankly don't know how they possibly make the team.

And I disagree in regard to LF. Martin appears to have finally turned a corner as a solid player. And I think Roden is a lot better prospect/player than what he showed as a rookie in a very limited number of PA/AB. Neither is a star player, but they both have some decent potential. But with both Rodriguez and Jenkins sitting at AAA, and I don't want to exclude Gonzalez, there will be a "shift" at some point in 2026 in regard to the OF.

And I like Lee better than the ZIPS projections. He was better defensively after the Correa trade when he played his natural position. He's only average, but I can accept that for now. His BAT needs to improve for sure!

I don't disagree on the SP side due to depth of arms and potential. I do think they undersold a healthy Ober, however. 

I do disagree in regard to the bullpen. They give too much credit to the last 2 months. I mean, I HOPE Funderburk has finally turned a corner as he has good stuff. Topa is a decent 7th man, unless he suddenly recaptures his 2023 season. Based on 2024 and the last 2 months of 2025, I do accept Sands as pretty solid. But the pen is a negative, IMO, unless and until we factor in 2 really solid, veteran additions, and move SOMEONE internally to the pen. Probably Festa in a move that makes so much sense I can't believe the Twins haven't already announced it.

Yes, anywhere from around 75-85 wins for 2026 is what I'm looking at. Primarily due to the pen, and rebounds from some key performers. 

But pausing for a moment, Lee's bat improves and he continues to play adequate defense for now, Lewis is healthy and starts to "being Lewis" even if he's not at Superman level, and Wallner is closer to the hitter he was in 2023-24. Sorry ZIPS, but Bell at 1B is a hell of a lot better than France. By the 2nd half of the season, if not before, we see Rodriguez, Jenkins, and K-Pepper. Just like 2023, the prospects start to make a difference. 

Ober is healthy, and SWR continues the rise we saw last season. WHO takes over the #5 role? The depth is great, and needed. 

The pen still needs at least 2 solid, quality veteran options to lead the way. But the coaching staff and FO also need to take advantage of the arm talent on hand and make a couple serious moves. Again, Festa could end up as the next great closer in a long line. But he might need some time to slide in to that spot, which is why it's so important to just add a couple solid veterans. And MAYBE Funderburk turned a corner, but I'd sure like another LH FA option for 2026. I'm still a believer in Sands. But I'd feel better if he was the #4 guy entering 2026.

I continue to say I can see a path for a solid, competitive 2026 season with upticks from current players, TOP prospects debuting, and a couple smart FA additions. So while I disagree with some of the ZIPS projections, I easily see a bottom end of 75 wins and a top end of 85.

I can see injuries and struggles offensively yet again. And I can see an ill conceived bullpen losing games and the Twins are sitting at 70-75 wins.

But baseball gods help me, I can see a path with a new manager, a new hitting coach, health and rebounds from Ober, Lewis, Wallner, improvement from Lee, the depth of rotation talent/potential, a few smart moves added to the pen, a couple conversion to the pen, top prospects so close to making an impact, (sigh), I can actually see an 85 win team who could MAYBE reach 90 wins if things break right.

Go ahead and call me nuts or crazy. But we have the potential for a very good starting staff with depth. There's a lot of potential in the lineup with guys who underperformed in 2025. We're starting to add more defense and speed in the OF, and potentially in the INF. We have 3 of our top prospects in the OF knocking on the door. And K-Pepper is not far away in the INF.

I'm really not crazy. We could have a poor team who underperforms in 2026 and just busts. But if you really look at the "potential" of this team, and the prospects almost ready, and add a couple smart moves, making the playoffs is not a dream.

 

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

On 12/17/2025 at 11:20 PM, DocBauer said:

....

And I disagree in regard to LF. Martin appears to have finally turned a corner as a solid player. And I think Roden is a lot better prospect/player than what he showed as a rookie in a very limited number of PA/AB. Neither is a star player, but they both have some decent potential. But with both Rodriguez and Jenkins sitting at AAA, and I don't want to exclude Gonzalez, there will be a "shift" at some point in 2026 in regard to the OF.

....

Doc, I agree with you in thinking that the potential is there to be above .500. I'm an optimist. 

But can you or someone help me understand the Martin love that seems to be on TD. I don't have MLB.tv. I listened to a lot of games on the radio, but frankly, following a Game Thread was a downer. I don't feel like I have a good handle on him. 

Martin's OPS+ was 106, which is above average, but how does a person get 181 plate appearances and only have 7 RBIs? If he were to get 543 plate appearances at that rate, it would be 21 RBIs. 

I know that RBIs are situation dependent and we're talking SSS, but his OPS was .917 with the bases empty in 112 plate appearances and .441 in the 69 plate appearances with runners on base. Ouch. The previous year he was slightly better with runners on base than with bases empty, but not with RISP. In the two seasons combined, he was at .737 with the bases empty, .639 with runners on and .533 with RISP.

I know he was a huge disappointment in 2024 and clearly seemed to be better in 2025, but it was only 50 games. What makes it feel like he's turned the corner? I want to believe, but I need some help. 

 

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Doc, I agree with you in thinking that the potential is there to be above .500. I'm an optimist. 

But can you or someone help me understand the Martin love that seems to be on TD. I don't have MLB.tv. I listened to a lot of games on the radio, but frankly, following a Game Thread was a downer. I don't feel like I have a good handle on him. 

Martin's OPS+ was 106, which is above average, but how does a person get 181 plate appearances and only have 7 RBIs? If he were to get 543 plate appearances at that rate, it would be 21 RBIs. 

I know that RBIs are situation dependent and we're talking SSS, but his OPS was .917 with the bases empty in 112 plate appearances and .441 in the 69 plate appearances with runners on base. Ouch. The previous year he was slight better with runners on base than with bases empty, but not with RISP. In the two seasons combined, he was at .737 with the bases empty, .639 with runners on and .533 with RISP.

I know he was a huge disappointment 2024 and clearly seemed to be better in 2025, but it was only 50 games. What makes it feel like he's turned the corner? I want to believe, but I need some help. 

 

I think his extremely low RBI numbers are partially due to luck, (poor), as well as opportunity, (lack thereof), as well as his spot in the order. I don't recall exactly how often he hit in the top spots vs the bottom of the order, but he wasn't coming up to the plate with a lot of runners OB, best I can recall. 

The excitement is more the 20 point increase in AVG and the 30 point increase in OB%. He also looked really good in LF and even made a handful of hilight plays, rather than looking like a confused squirrel looking for a lost walnut. 

He just looked like a confident, legitimate ML ballplayer. I'm still worried about his lack of pop/power, but he just looked like a much better, more competent hitter in 2025.

I don't know if he's a starter in 2026 or a role player. But he actually looks like he might be a solid table setter either in one of the  first 2 spots in the order, or in the 9 hole turning the roster over.

A year ago, I really had my doubts. I'm cautiously optimistic about him now.

[dxpavelka]

On 12/17/2025 at 11:44 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Zips change at first base after signing Bell - 0 change. Literally the same number as before. 7 million well spent!

[dxpavelka]

On 12/17/2025 at 11:44 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Zips change at first base after signing Bell - 0 change. Literally the same number as before. 7 million well spent!

I have it on good authority that there are actually going to be games played next season to determine things rather than relying on Zips or FanGraphs or any other such things.

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I have it on good authority that there are actually going to be games played next season to determine things rather than relying on Zips or FanGraphs or any other such things.

Too bad. Their chances look a lot better with the projections.

[JADBP]

On 12/17/2025 at 9:43 AM, LastOnePicked said:

"Cautious optimism" at this point is another way of saying "false hope."

This is a team without a single elite position player and far more question marks than answers in the rotation. And don't get anyone started on the bullpen. And the defense is best described as "woof."

This whole "we think we're still close to contending" turn of the offseason is really sad to watch. It's like an alcoholic friend who's trying to convince you they're ready to turn the corner, but their fridge is still full of six packs.

84 wins for this club? No. 

Buxton is elite 

Ryan is elite. 
 

and we gave at least 3 guys in minors who rate as elite.