What to Make of the Minnesota Twins' 82-Win Projection from FanGraphs?

[jorgenswest]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Odds change based on things that actually happen, so no. Add a good player, wins go up. Trade Buxton, wins go down.

Wouldn’t the odds be based on how the expect people to bet ? If the bettors believe the Twins are going to trade from Ryan, Lopez and Buxton then wouldn’t they have to set the line accordingly?

[jorgenswest]

I do appreciate Rosenthal’s report that the Twins do not plan on trading Ryan. Lopez and Buxton. That is the public position they should be taking. He adds that it will take an overwhelming offer to get any of the three. It should take an overwhelming offer. I don’t expect they will get that offer.

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Honda... That's fine but honestly... I was thinking.

Winning Record in 2026. I'd do 20 Bucks at 100 to 1 odds. Yeah... that's right... I'll put my money where my mouth is. 

I like that you've joined the team. You and I will have to put the Carhardts on... heavy coat to face the cold stiff winds here at TD but it's nice to have someone with ya. 

We have slight disagreement as you noted but the concept is the same. Just make 2026 about finding talent and whatever happens happens but we should be at least a step or two or three closer when the season concludes as we roll into the storm clouds of the labor disagreement. The picture should be clearer... the decisions to make less numerous. Just flood it and assess the result and then flood it again. 

Pitching: I agree... we can start with what we have right now. Good depth and good potential. 

Our possible difference: I think they have to trade Joe Ryan. Have to... unless they are just lowballed. His value brings back to much to let that value diminish with his service time ticking or the possibility of injury. Use Joe Ryan to bring back the biggest baddest young player they can get. Someone a step above the guys that we will be flooding into the system hoping for hits on. Someone that Keith Law sings songs about... a guy that other teams don't want to part with. Sweeten the pot if you have to. I'm keeping Lopez... his return may not be worth his value to the club.  

Outfield: You are exactly right... there is enough on the 40 man already to more than flood the system. Two or three of the current group could come out of those shadows. Some will remain in the shadows. Just don't know who but only Buxton deserves everyday playing time. The rest can fight for it but you give them all the chance to fight for it. Evan Outman... give him until June but you got to give him a chance. We will probably have to trade one or two of them for better 40 man balance. 

2B/3B/SS: They need some help here. The depth isn't sufficient to flood. One of the top priorities this off-season needs to be getting Fitzgerald or Kreidler off the 26 man roster. As of right now... one of those two is on the 40 man. We need a young SS that will push Lee so Lee can push Lewis and even Keaschall. We will have Culpepper behind that hopefully and that's when you can say that they are flooding the position group. As of right now... Lee and Lewis are just going to either sink or swim and two years later if any of them sunk... they will just try again. Nope... We shouldn't wait. Get that SS and utilize those 4 players for those 3 spots. 

1B: Yeah... we will disagree on this one but I understand what you are saying. Your suggestion is probably the only direction that they can go. The Twins have literally no one for this position. It's beyond words how dry this well is! Especially when you consider that hitters naturally fall down the defensive spectrum to this position. It's a dry well that should be collecting groundwater but bone dry and it's led a yearly one year rental thing that has gone on too long as has no end in sight. I refuse to tolerate the continuation of this. I'd rather they sleep in the bed that they made. Starve if they have to. If you have to trade Joe Ryan to get an young potential aircraft carrier at this position. You do it. Otherwise... Clemens and Julien it is with hope that they can get Sabato, Fedko or Mendez going quickly. In regards to Clemens and Julien... they are both out of options. If you do trade for a 1B. One will have to go to make room.  

C: Just punt it for the time being - Jeffers needs to be cashed in for more chips. Concentrate on finding offense at the other 8 positions. 

Bullpen: Good Gravy - Uff Da - It's a project just attack it from all angles. Save the ones who work out and start building. It doesn't have to be the best bullpen baseball but you have to get it to functional. 

100 to one is not even mediocre odds they will be good, is it? That's...I think they are terrible, but I can afford to tear up twenty dollars odds. 

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

100 to one is not even mediocre odds they will be good, is it? That's...I think they are terrible, but I can afford to tear up twenty dollars odds. 

The optimism is the willingness to tear up the Twenty Dollars. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think if you squint, and they get lucky in sequencing, and Wallner and Lewis hit like stars, they could win 82 games if they find a bullpen, which good luck doing that in one year....Oh, and Lopez and Ryan need to be healthy all year, SWR and another pitcher need to improve......

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Wouldn’t the odds be based on how the expect people to bet ? If the bettors believe the Twins are going to trade from Ryan, Lopez and Buxton then wouldn’t they have to set the line accordingly?

Yes, yes.

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think if you squint, and they get lucky in sequencing, and Wallner and Lewis hit like stars, they could win 82 games if they find a bullpen, which good luck doing that in one year....Oh, and Lopez and Ryan need to be healthy all year, SWR and another pitcher need to improve......

If I had some eggs I could have ham and eggs, if I had some ham.  😁

[JADBP]

9 hours ago, CRF said:

Getting rid of Baldelli should give us a few more wins all by itself.

interesting thought....what is the Baldelli switcheroo worth?  2-3 wins?  4-5 wins?  6-10 wins or even more?  Less?  Any thoughts, fandom?  

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, JADBP said:

interesting thought....what is the Baldelli switcheroo worth?  2-3 wins?  4-5 wins?  6-10 wins or even more?  Less?  Any thoughts, fandom?  

If his replacement is worth 10 wins, he should get millions of dollars. Millions. Because no player is worth that....

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, JADBP said:

interesting thought....what is the Baldelli switcheroo worth?  2-3 wins?  4-5 wins?  6-10 wins or even more?  Less?  Any thoughts, fandom?  

It's commonly estimated that to acquire one win's worth of talent on the free agent market costs upward of $6 million.  If a baseball manager were worth 10 wins all by himself, some team would gladly pay him $60M a year.  I don't see salaries like that, so the teams must believe the marginal value of even the best manager to be smaller than that.

/ edit - ha, Mike types faster, or at least expresses himself more succinctly, than me

[JADBP]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

If his replacement is worth 10 wins, he should get millions of dollars. Millions. Because no player is worth that....

LOL.....Well, I can't imagine that Shelton is worth 10 wins, but maybe Baldelli was -5 and Shelton is +5?  I can well remember several games that Baldelli just simply blew by his constant substitutions and having players play out of the position that they spent five years learning.  

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, JADBP said:

LOL.....Well, I can't imagine that Shelton is worth 10 wins, but maybe Baldelli was -5 and Shelton is +5?  I can well remember several games that Baldelli just simply blew by his constant substitutions and having players play out of the position that they spent five years learning.  

5 wins is still more than 95% of players.....I think we all over estimate the delta between managers, or the best would be paid A LOT more than they are, IMO.

[JADBP]

Well teams just don't play managers the types of salaries that top level player talent command.  You will never find a $35 million manager in MLB (maybe decades from now).... just because teams can get away with it. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Well teams just don't play managers the types of salaries that top level player talent command.  You will never find a $35 million manager in MLB (maybe decades from now).... just because teams can get away with it. 

Ya, seems odd to me, because they aren't part of the salary cap, and you'd think the Mets would buy the best one for those 5-10 extra wins......imagine why they don't? I can't.....

[JADBP]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

5 wins is still more than 95% of players.....I think we all over estimate the delta between managers, or the best would be paid A LOT more than they are, IMO.

I agree....a 5 win player is fairly rare.  But 5 win managers are extremely rare. 

I really think there are probably only 2-3 managers out there than can take a woefully bad team and make them shine...like a Maddon.  Dave Roberts in LAD (even with WS wins) is not one, because the owner loads up the team with massive talent and he just keeps them all running in the same general direction and keeps out of the way. 

But talent is not the only ingredient...look at the Mets!  So, what is wrong here?  Its a whole ecosystem, players, managers, coaches, facilities, belief, management, ownership, the whole shebang.  Since the Twins have two strikes against us already (ownership (Huge #1!)) and maybe management, the coaches and players might never get to the promised land.  

[JADBP]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya, seems odd to me, because they aren't part of the salary cap, and you'd think the Mets would buy the best one for those 5-10 extra wins......imagine why they don't? I can't.....

I agree....if I were the Mets, I would AT LEAST have Maddon on speed dial as a highly paid consultant, if not head coach or full time adviser.  Is Carlos Mendoza really the answer there (an 86 win team)?  They are still searching for answers...when they just be paying for answers.  Oh well....

[Dennesey55347]

This team will win 76 games, assuming zero departures. If any of the Big 3 leave, subtract 6 games. It's not just that the Twins underperform to varying levels annually, but they also lack award-worthy players, RBI-producers, clutch hitters, (high) doubles/triples/SB dudes, 160ish hits guys, etc. There is no one thing the Twins offense can claim to be better at than most of the league. No proven development pipeline. Questionable coaching staff. 

82 wins isn't out of the question if everything comes together. But let's be real. Any win projection higher is based on several "what-ifs".

 

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, Patzky said:

"Source": Buxton, Lopez and Ryan will not be traded before the start of the season.

Trade rumors reports Ken Rosenthal  claiming the twins won't trade Lopez,  Ryan or Buxton ...

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

1 hour ago, JADBP said:

interesting thought....what is the Baldelli switcheroo worth?  2-3 wins?  4-5 wins?  6-10 wins or even more?  Less?  Any thoughts, fandom?  

6-10 wins, him and his spreadsheets sucked.

[Tyler Omoth]

The Twins have starting pitching. I think they can remake the bullpen easily enough. The tough part is the lineup. I really believe there is a very high ceiling for this group. Unfortunately, there's also a very low floor. We just don't know what we're going to get with guys like Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Wallner, and even Clemens. They can look great at times and absolutely out of their depth at others. It could be a fun season if a few things start to click. 

[Mike Sixel]

58 minutes ago, Dennesey55347 said:

This team will win 76 games, assuming zero departures. If any of the Big 3 leave, subtract 6 games. It's not just that the Twins underperform to varying levels annually, but they also lack award-worthy players, RBI-producers, clutch hitters, (high) doubles/triples/SB dudes, 160ish hits guys, etc. There is no one thing the Twins offense can claim to be better at than most of the league. No proven development pipeline. Questionable coaching staff. 

82 wins isn't out of the question if everything comes together. But let's be real. Any win projection higher is based on several "what-ifs".

 

I mean, almost no one has 160 hit players.  Only 28 players did that last year.....

I am not, however, in disagreement on the hitting development at all. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Tyler Omoth said:

The Twins have starting pitching. I think they can remake the bullpen easily enough. The tough part is the lineup. I really believe there is a very high ceiling for this group. Unfortunately, there's also a very low floor. We just don't know what we're going to get with guys like Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Wallner, and even Clemens. They can look great at times and absolutely out of their depth at others. It could be a fun season if a few things start to click. 

The Dodgers failed to build a bullpen last year, and you think the the TWins can build one basically from scratch? I find that very hard to believe. 

[DocBauer]

While Nick has a bit of grudging optimism, I'm in agreement with @Riverbrianthat I don't believe this team is that far from being decent, if not fairly good. (Paraphrasing slightly).

I'm dismissing both Fangraphs projection of 82 wins, and the Twins falling short in previous seasons. EVERY SINGLE SEASON is an entity unto itself. And every season should be treated as such. While a born optimist, when I take a good, hard look at the Twins TODAY, I see holes, of course. But I also a lot of really good, hopeful, even projected options that can make the Twins a solid team in 2026. YES, a few things need to break right, but those "things" aren't crazy, "fairy godmother" issues with a wish and a prayer.

DO the Twins have a couple...maybe three...TOP OF THE ROTATION arms? You bet they do. And how many seasons in the past years could we say that? DO the Twins have a really nice collection of talented arms to fill in the last 2-3 spots and some depth? You bet they do! Now, granted, not all of those arms...still young and mostly inexperienced... have proven themselves fully, but the talent and potential are there. 

Is there offensive potential available? Despite some bad performances and question marks, the answer is YES. Lewis is STILL only 26yo and just played the most games of his career. Despite not being able to maintain his brief glimpses of SUPERMAN status previously, he was still league average or above the last half of the 2025 season, improved his defense, and was healthy enough to start running again. You want to give up on him at this point? Sure Lee needs to raise his game up a couple notches, but he was a near-rookie at 24yo in 2025 and was a top draft choice and top prospect for a reason. Whether he changes positions or becomes a super INF utility player, do you want to give up on him already? Wallner might be best as a DH, hopefully soon, but 2 previous .880 OPS seasons and then a bad 2025 where he was still above league average shouldn't dismiss what he's shown he can do. Buxton is a STUD. Jeffers is one of the best offensive catchers in MLB. 

I look at that foundation, and I can't help but believe the offense has a decent start with a little better/continued health and some natural growth and development. 

And then I look at Martin's sudden improvement, and what we've seen of Keaschall, and I get a little more excited, and a little more optimistic. 

And then I look a little farther down, and I see Rodriguez and Jenkins just about to break through to the ML level, and I'm even more excited! Oh, BTW, there's a real chance K-Pepper will be ready by mid season to be an even better SS than Lee...moving him to a different role...with even better offense! And wait, did I forget to mention the RH bat of Gonzalez that should be up at SOME POINT in 2026?

Not everyone will be great the minute they debut. It seldom works out that way. But FOUR of the Twins best position player prospects are already at AAA or about to debut there.

REASONS for offensive optimism that aren't just wishes. 

But the biggest issue remains the pen.

I feel almost dirty hoping for a $120M payroll for 2026. It would still be about $20M less than opening day 2025. Imagine how filthy I feel begging for a $110M payroll instead?

They trade Larnach and a prospect or two and grab a solid young BP arm from someone who really needs an above average LH bat against RHP. It's imaginative, and what they should be looking to do, and what I suspect they are hoping to do. And what I hope they do.

Then they spend about $7M ish for someone like Fairbanks, Jansen, or Finnegan as the closer, or Fireman at least. And how about $3-4M for Thielbar, Coulombe, Rogers, coming back, or Chaffin, who ALL had quality 2025 seasons, as a LH option to supplement the sudden improvement of Funderburk. 

This builds, potentially, a ML AVERAGE BP at least with what's on hand with Sands, Topa, Funderburk Ohl, Adams, Lewis, and possible transition pieces like Prielipp, Raya, Lewis, 

And we can't disregard the SP depth of arm talent on hand making the transition. But as much as I want Festa to be a quality top of the rotation starter, I just don't know that it's meant to be. His SSS career numbers say he's great through the order 2 times. But isn't that the case for almost any SP early in their career? But considering his build, his stuff, his recent shoulder issues...that seem to be fixed...he should absolutely be in the pen mix for 2026.

The bitch is, the Twins could have a $110M payroll and move Larnach for something, add a couple really decent arms, and STILL ADD a 1B like Lowe, and maybe add a secondary bat for depth, and be a solid team.

 

[MGX]

39 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Wallner might be best as a DH, hopefully soon, but 2 previous .880 OPS seasons and then a bad 2025

Agree with your post & wanted to add to this. Wallner's so called "bad" season in 2025 wasn't really that bad. It's true he finished with a wRC+ of 114 which is the lowest he produced since his debut season (2023 141 & 2024 154). In 2025 Wallner had more than twice as many PA's vs LHP & responded with a .790 OPS vs LHP. Overall, his production was down some, but he also took a step towards becoming a FT player.

[old nurse]

On 12/5/2025 at 7:52 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

The trade market so far this year has been weak - not great returns for established talent.  The pending 2027 strike might be a good part of the reason.  TDers, like myself, who hoped we’d be getting a haul of top 100 in trades this off-season look like they are going to be disappointed. 

So, with trade conditions as they are, the FO will take these FanGraph predictions to heart and roll the dice on ‘26.  So the TDers who want to keep Buxton, Lopez and Ryan should take heart - you very well could see them in Twins uniforms on Opening Day. 

Its not a terrible strategy if the return for any of those three isn’t a pretty much sure-fired (as much as any player can be) contributor in ‘28 and beyond.

However, don’t expect any big additions to this roster to bolster the probabilities of success - the penny pinching is not going away.

With only one above average major leaguer (the oft hurt Buxton) and one average major leaguer (the “has to be traded by the deadline” Jeffers) among our position players, as well as possibly the worst bullpen on paper in the majors, all being led by the proven managerial genius Shelton, the smart money has the under on 82 wins - and it’s not even close. 

The fangraphs projection system for wins and losses has been inaccurate. The team WAR totals have been surprisingly close. The totals for central division teams are close to each other.  I would think with all of their analytics the Twins FO,, as well as the other teams FO would act accordingly. Many here would appear to not think that way 

[old nurse]

16 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Trade rumors reports Ken Rosenthal  claiming the twins won't trade Lopez,  Ryan or Buxton ...

It should not have taken too much to figure out that the asking price was going to be high for any of the Twins players.  Falvey even said as much last summer.  The suspected landing spots for players have not paid that kind of price, nor much more than a discount price for a player.  Again, something that shouldn’t have been too hard to figure out why a trade wasn’t going to happen

[Twinsrtheworst]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Three of those guys are gone in two years. Trading them doesn't make the rebuild take longer.... I'm very confused by this post. 

Let’s assume you know those three players will not be around after 2 more seasons, so you trade them now, because we assume they won’t be playing for the Twins 3 years from now. Trading 3 star players/leaders+new manager+new owners+new front office+new bullpen= an unprecedented tear down. Sounds like an expansion team except by then we would all be to jaded to care. 

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

While Nick has a bit of grudging optimism, I'm in agreement with @Riverbrianthat I don't believe this team is that far from being decent, if not fairly good. (Paraphrasing slightly).

I'm dismissing both Fangraphs projection of 82 wins, and the Twins falling short in previous seasons. EVERY SINGLE SEASON is an entity unto itself. And every season should be treated as such. While a born optimist, when I take a good, hard look at the Twins TODAY, I see holes, of course. But I also a lot of really good, hopeful, even projected options that can make the Twins a solid team in 2026. YES, a few things need to break right, but those "things" aren't crazy, "fairy godmother" issues with a wish and a prayer.

DO the Twins have a couple...maybe three...TOP OF THE ROTATION arms? You bet they do. And how many seasons in the past years could we say that? DO the Twins have a really nice collection of talented arms to fill in the last 2-3 spots and some depth? You bet they do! Now, granted, not all of those arms...still young and mostly inexperienced... have proven themselves fully, but the talent and potential are there. 

Is there offensive potential available? Despite some bad performances and question marks, the answer is YES. Lewis is STILL only 26yo and just played the most games of his career. Despite not being able to maintain his brief glimpses of SUPERMAN status previously, he was still league average or above the last half of the 2025 season, improved his defense, and was healthy enough to start running again. You want to give up on him at this point? Sure Lee needs to raise his game up a couple notches, but he was a near-rookie at 24yo in 2025 and was a top draft choice and top prospect for a reason. Whether he changes positions or becomes a super INF utility player, do you want to give up on him already? Wallner might be best as a DH, hopefully soon, but 2 previous .880 OPS seasons and then a bad 2025 where he was still above league average shouldn't dismiss what he's shown he can do. Buxton is a STUD. Jeffers is one of the best offensive catchers in MLB. 

I look at that foundation, and I can't help but believe the offense has a decent start with a little better/continued health and some natural growth and development. 

And then I look at Martin's sudden improvement, and what we've seen of Keaschall, and I get a little more excited, and a little more optimistic. 

And then I look a little farther down, and I see Rodriguez and Jenkins just about to break through to the ML level, and I'm even more excited! Oh, BTW, there's a real chance K-Pepper will be ready by mid season to be an even better SS than Lee...moving him to a different role...with even better offense! And wait, did I forget to mention the RH bat of Gonzalez that should be up at SOME POINT in 2026?

Not everyone will be great the minute they debut. It seldom works out that way. But FOUR of the Twins best position player prospects are already at AAA or about to debut there.

REASONS for offensive optimism that aren't just wishes. 

But the biggest issue remains the pen.

I feel almost dirty hoping for a $120M payroll for 2026. It would still be about $20M less than opening day 2025. Imagine how filthy I feel begging for a $110M payroll instead?

They trade Larnach and a prospect or two and grab a solid young BP arm from someone who really needs an above average LH bat against RHP. It's imaginative, and what they should be looking to do, and what I suspect they are hoping to do. And what I hope they do.

Then they spend about $7M ish for someone like Fairbanks, Jansen, or Finnegan as the closer, or Fireman at least. And how about $3-4M for Thielbar, Coulombe, Rogers, coming back, or Chaffin, who ALL had quality 2025 seasons, as a LH option to supplement the sudden improvement of Funderburk. 

This builds, potentially, a ML AVERAGE BP at least with what's on hand with Sands, Topa, Funderburk Ohl, Adams, Lewis, and possible transition pieces like Prielipp, Raya, Lewis, 

And we can't disregard the SP depth of arm talent on hand making the transition. But as much as I want Festa to be a quality top of the rotation starter, I just don't know that it's meant to be. His SSS career numbers say he's great through the order 2 times. But isn't that the case for almost any SP early in their career? But considering his build, his stuff, his recent shoulder issues...that seem to be fixed...he should absolutely be in the pen mix for 2026.

The bitch is, the Twins could have a $110M payroll and move Larnach for something, add a couple really decent arms, and STILL ADD a 1B like Lowe, and maybe add a secondary bat for depth, and be a solid team.

 

Do you believe the Twins can win 82 games? Or is Vegas right?

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Let’s assume you know those three players will not be around after 2 more seasons, so you trade them now, because we assume they won’t be playing for the Twins 3 years from now. Trading 3 star players/leaders+new manager+new owners+new front office+new bullpen= an unprecedented tear down. Sounds like an expansion team except by then we would all be to jaded to care. 

Sure, but that has nothing to do with what I posted?

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, JADBP said:

interesting thought....what is the Baldelli switcheroo worth?  2-3 wins?  4-5 wins?  6-10 wins or even more?  Less?  Any thoughts, fandom?  

I'm not convinced that Derek Shelton is a better manager than Rocco Baldelli. He could be worse.