Why The Twins Shouldn’t Sign Rhys Hoskins

[Jason Wang]

The Twins have quite a bit of work to do this offseason. Among the laundry list of gaping holes on the current team is first base, where they struggled to generate any meaningful offensive production last year. Minnesota’s first basemen combined for a .678 OPS in 2025, placing them 25th in MLB. With Ty France now gone, Kody Clemens sits atop the depth chart but doesn’t have nearly enough upside to get fans excited about the position heading into next season.

Naturally, this means that the Twins could pursue a player in free agency and, given their frugal ways, are likely out of the running for Pete Alonso and even Ryan O’Hearn. However, Rhys Hoskins could be just affordable enough for Minnesota to be interested. Unfortunately, his sticker price is one of the only things he has going for him for 2026.

He most recently completed a two-year stint with the Brewers, which, despite being a highly anticipated signing at the time, was immensely underwhelming on all fronts. For a total of $30 million ($34 million if you count the $4 million buyout of his mutual option), Milwaukee received a first baseman with a 102 OPS+ and 0.7 rWAR, hardly a strong return on investment. There was inherent risk following a long injury layoff in 2023, but even with 221 games under his belt, he never seemed to return to the hitter he was with the Phillies.

The most drastic drop was undoubtedly in his ability to hit for power. Across six seasons in Philadelphia, he had a slugging percentage of .492, while he managed a slugging percentage of just .418 while with Milwaukee. Although this is a steep decline, by 2025, both his average and maximum exit velocities were back in the same ballpark (teehee) as his best years in Philadelphia. This means that he hadn’t really lost the raw power he's had his whole career, but it points to something more insidious.

Instead, it seems the reason for this apparent discrepancy is that his quality of contact varied depending on the pitches he was seeing. In 2025, he pummeled fastballs but struggled immensely against breaking balls. Here are some of his batted ball metrics when separated by pitch type.

	# of pitches	Average Exit Velocity	BA	SLG	wOBA
Fastball	715	92.7 mph	0.281	0.556	0.402
Breaking	545	85.5 mph	0.179	0.253	0.209
Offspeed	169	88.5 mph	0.194	0.226	0.254

As you can see, there’s a huge spread between the average exit velocity on fastballs and breaking balls. An average exit velocity of 92.7 mph is on par with Corey Seager’s season numbers, whereas an average exit velocity of 85.5 mph would be on par with Sal Frelick’s season numbers. This crucial vulnerability, along with returning injury issues, is what caused his OPS to decline from .877 in May to just .532 in June as opposing pitchers began to exploit his shortcomings. Unless he makes major adjustments, expect this steady diet of breaking balls and offensive slump to continue, especially as a more varied pitch mix is becoming vogue.

Another symptom to check is his bat speed. Unfortunately, we only have bat-tracking data starting in 2024, which doesn’t provide enough data to definitively say whether he’s in the midst of a gradual decline. At 32 years old, his bat speed isn’t going to get any faster. In the two seasons for which we do have data, he was around the 40th percentile. It isn’t the reason for his diminished production at the plate, but it sure isn’t helping either.

Offensively, he still does some things well. His plate discipline is as good as ever, and he has yet to post a walk rate below 10% for any season in his career. He still makes excellent swing decisions, posting an elite chase rate of just 19.9% last year. Finally, his batted-ball profile was still elite last season, with 34.5% of his batted balls pulled in the air, more than double the MLB average of 16.7%. But again, these positive batted ball results come almost exclusively against fastballs. Of the 25 total extra base hits he had, 19 of them came against fastballs, including all but one of his home runs.

Based on the way that things have been going for him recently, Rhys Hoskins should be seen as more of a depth piece or placeholder than a starting option capable of moving the needle. Sure, the Twins don’t exactly have the most appealing options at either position, but does it really make sense to spend additional money on a player who could be at most a side-grade? If anyone knows not to throw good money after bad (or throw good money at all), it’s Minnesota’s front office.

It remains to be seen whether the Twins will spend 2026 in rebuild mode, but even if they were focused on competing, it would make more sense to prioritize reloading the bullpen that was torn down at last year’s trade deadline over getting a first baseman in decline. At this point, signing anyone may be enough to cause excitement, but recent data suggests that a Rhys Hoskins contract could be more of a bearish signal than a bullish one. 

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[DJL44]

Sounds like a huge upgrade on Eddie Julien

[old nurse]

The only way the Twins are signing Hoskins is if the contract is for one year and the first figure isn’t a crooked number and followed by 6 zeros

[SteveLV]

Because:

1) He's old

2) He's in decline

and

3) He costs $.

And 3 trumps 1 and 2 for this current ownership anyways.

[bunsen82]

Think its a moot point if we are trying to lower the salary of the club to pocket money to pay off debt.  If we are willing to trade Buxton and Lopez and possibly Ryan,  there is no reason to sign Hoskins.  We will run with Clemens and see what we can get out of him.  You then have Mendez and Amick that we seem to be giving them a trial to see if they can be options down the road.  

[#3Killer]

Move Wallner to 1st base. We have three of our best AAA players who are outfielders who need their shot. If they can make the jump we are ready to roll!!!

[shimrod]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Sounds like a huge upgrade on Eddie Julien

Who isn't? 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

47 minutes ago, shimrod said:

Who isn't? 

Me, for starters.

[darin617]

I wouldn't be upset if they could sign him for like 4-6 million with incentives and they flip him at the deadline if the Twins fall out of the race at the deadline.

[nicksaviking]

I don't know, maybe I'm low on my expectations for Hoskins' salary in 2026 but what is he going to get? 10M? 

10M free agents tend to be a waste of payroll and roster spots, but Hoskins would be an upgrade to Julien and Clemens. Unlike them, at least he can still get on base even if we're not sold on his power. 1B is kind of the black hole spot, is there a different player at 1B the Twins should be looking at? Obviously I'd like Alonso, but we all know better than that. I don't think there's a 10M free agent at any other position I'd want starting every day. And spreading out that money to two or three or four even worse players who are taking up roster spots is my biggest pet peeve with this organization.

[Parfigliano]

6 hours ago, #3Killer said:

Move Wallner to 1st base. We have three of our best AAA players who are outfielders who need their shot. If they can make the jump we are ready to roll!!!

Roll where?

[Brandon]

The Twins are not likely to contend next year anyways so signing a player like Hoskins can be a low cost win.  He hits 30 HRs or gets traded for a solid prospect.  Both are wins.  also, it improves our chances of being a .500 team next year.  If the bullpen works out.... we could be a .500 team.  We also need a few things to break through on offense for us to be competitive 

[Doctor Wu]

I didn't want the Twins to sign Hoskins 2 years ago,. and I STILL  don't want them to sign him. Sure, we need a quality first basemen, but this guy is not the answer. If money is an issue, I'd rather use if for another one or two bullpen arms.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Roll where?

Into a ditch, probably.

[The Great Hambino]

15 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Me, for starters.

How about for relievers?  At this point, you might be in line for a crack at a bullpen spot

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, The Great Hambino said:

How about for relievers?  At this point, you might be in line for a crack at a bullpen spot

I'm left-handed. I can make a run at being the second lefty in the bullpen.

[Mahoning]

How about the Twins sign Luis Arraez, Tommy Pham, and Rob Refsnyder? They aren't going to take you to the World Seriesm but they WOULD (unlike, say, Outman and Julien) give your professional at-bats every time, and they wouldn't cost too much. They get you through the season without the embarassment Twins fans now face. Fans would love to see Arraez return and he gets on base!

[twinstalker]

No.  This is wrong.  If the Twins sign Hoskins, facts don't matter.  He will hit lights out.

And then I will b*tch about him when he doesn't and ask what happened because he was good that one season before I finally say something nasty about the Pohlads.