If the Twins Are Buyers, Part One: What Are Their Biggest Positional Needs?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball — that is, when the big names are healthy. With Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Zebby Matthews set to return soon, starting pitching should once again be a strength of the team. The bullpen, aside from a few rocky appearances in June, have been lights out.

The hitting, on the other hand? A clear area of opportunity. Coming out of the break, the Twins have the sixth-worst team OPS in the American League. Of the teams behind them, the White Sox and Orioles will almost certainly miss the playoffs. The others — Royals, Rangers, and Guardians — all stake their playoff claim on the backs of their pitchers as well, and the Royals and Guardians are also likely to miss out on the postseason due to mediocre hitting.

The best playoff teams feature well-balanced rosters, and it’s clear the Twins will need to upgrade their offense should they feel that October baseball is a real possibility. But, where would it make the most sense to upgrade based on the players currently on the team? Let’s take a look, position by position, and see where the need is the greatest. I’ll rank the positions from lowest need (or least likely to try to upgrade) to greatest need or most likely.

Center Field: 3.5 fWAR (2nd in the AL), 136 wRC+ (1st in the AL), +6 FRV (6th in the AL)

This one is super easy. Byron Buxton is the best two-way centerfielder in the American League, and it’s not close. His backup, Harrison Bader, would be a starter for probably half the teams in baseball. Both offensively and defensively, the team would be hard-pressed to actually upgrade from either player.

Left Field: 2.6 fWAR (3rd in the AL), 103 wRC+ (5th in the AL), +2 FRV (2nd in the AL)

Bader has gotten more starts here than anyone else, and that’s unlikely to change, unless the Twins move him at the deadline. He’s got elite defense, and an average bat that plays just fine in left. Willi Castro and Luke Keaschall can both play here too. It’s extremely unlikely they pick up a left field bopper.

Shortstop: 0.7 fWAR (12th in the AL), 93 wRC+ (12th in the AL), -12 fielding runs (15th in the AL)

Carlos Correa has clearly not been himself this season, and the Twins’ best hope is he can find his stride at the plate and in the field. If, instead, he is experiencing a rapid, age-based decline, they are in trouble for the next few seasons. To be clear though, the Twins will not move on from Correa, nor will they pick up a backup that’s better than both Castro and Brooks Lee.

Second Base: 0.2 fWAR (13th in the AL), 106 wRC+ (3rd in the AL),  -4 FRV (13th in the AL)

Lee is the second baseman of record, but Kody Clemens and Keaschall (when he returns in a couple weeks) slot in well there as well. Could the Twins upgrade here? Maybe. Would it make sense? Probably not. Keaschall probably isn’t as good as he was in his limited action with the Twins prior to breaking his arm on a hit by pitch, but he absolutely looked major-league ready, and the Twins probably don’t need yet another second baseman.

Third Base: 0.3 fWAR (12th in the AL), 69 wRC+ (13th in the AL), -2 FRV (11th in the AL)

When healthy, Royce Lewis is the starter. Castro and Lee both see plenty of innings there as well. The biggest challenge here is that Lewis has not been healthy, or right at the plate, for the majority of the season. Assuming the Twins still believe in his immense talent and upside, it seems unlikely they would attempt to upgrade the position at the deadline, unless they found a player who is a clear upgrade both offensively and defensively. It seems unlikely.

Right Field: 0.5 fWAR (11th in the AL), 88 wRC+ (13th in the AL), -5 FRV (10th in the AL)

Right field has been manned primarily by one of Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach, with Castro also seeing some action here. None of the three are especially good defensively, and the aggregate offensive output at the position have been subpar. Not great, for the lower end of the defensive spectrum. There’s a bit of a logjam here unless the Twins move two of those three at the deadline. That is a possibility, to be certain, and it could be a straightforward move to pick up a slugger rental while recouping value.

Catcher:  0.4 fWAR (14th in the AL), 85 wRC+ (10th in the AL), -4 FRV (10th in the AL)

This position is trickier. One one hand, Ryan Jeffers has been solid, as he has been basically since his rookie year. He has accounted for 1.1 fWAR himself, and has a 111 wRC+. Christian Vázquez has lost a step defensively, and is a downright offensive liability. Could the Twins trade Vázquez and his expiring contract, replace him with a journeyman for the remainder of the season, and also trade for a good catching prospect? Maybe. They will need a second catcher next season either way, and it’s not clear that one is currently in the organization.

First Base: 0.4 fWAR (10th in the AL), 89 wRC+ (11th in the AL), +5 FRV (1st in the AL)

Ty France has gotten the majority of reps at first base this season, with Clemens getting a few starts more recently as the Twins have begun platooning the position. France has been good defensively, but despite being a clutch hitter for much of the season is just not a plus hitter at this stage of his career. This may be the single likeliest position to trade for as the position isn’t blocked by anyone who is a key part of the Twins plans.

Designated Hitter: 0.6 fWAR (9th in the AL), 103 wRC+ (12th in the AL)

The Twins have generally opted to rotate guys through DH to give them a half-day off. On a team with a plus offense, this is a great strategy. With the Twins and their sub-par hitting, the lineup spot that should have the most pop has been rather anemic, with roughly league average hitting from the position that should be perhaps 20% better than average. It makes so much sense to try to upgrade here as it should be cheap to do so.

So, summing all this up, it seems clear that the Twins would benefit from seeking to acquire a big bat at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Typically, this is also the easiest player type to acquire at the deadline, with right fielders, first basemen, and designated hitters on expiring contracts often changing teams for the price of a good reliever or a decent prospect. Should the Twins find themselves light buyers (perhaps the likeliest scenario in my opinion, given the sale of the team is working towards completion), a pitcher-for-hitter swap for a big bat just may be what helps the team live up to the potential they had heading into the season.

In part two, I will look at hitters that fit these profiles that just may be available over the next several days.

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[TheLeviathan]

Randballs Stu has psuedonyms now?

[LambchoP]

Twins are NOT buyers or a playoff team. They need to get what they can for all their expiring contracts and look to fill the holes for next year. Call up some of the kids having success in the minors and see if they can viably help us next year. Gives us an idea of where we need to trade or sign for. My guess is next year we need a good SP, probably a reliever or two, definitely a lefty (again). Catcher and first baseman. Clemens could be an option but I'm not sure you want to rely on him and Julien all year. Look what would have happened if we went with Julien/Miranda this year lol.

[FlyingFinn]

A couple of days late on the buying column. That ship has sailed.

[Sjoski]

Since the answer to the headline question is so obvious,  I have my own question. 

What do the Twins and a sunburn have in common?

They both get worse the longer you sit and watch.

[tony&rodney]

If ..... the Twins were buyers .... Buxton and Correa have "no trade" deals and catchers are rarely moved midseason. So what positions need to be improved? This is really easy. 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and DH all need to be upgraded if the reason for the transactions are to have a playoff team.

The Twins are incompetent if they do not take advantage of teams in need of a utility player and a reserve/4th outfielder who bats right handed. Castro and Bader must be traded. If someone offers a decent player for Clemens he should also be wearing a new uniform. 

The Twins cannot continue to roll out slow, defensively challenged, weak hitting teams year after year in hopes that their players hottest one week stretches of their careers turns into a six month performance.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If you're buying for the future, then you need to ask yourself who are the guys that we think will grow and fill a role.  Then plan accordingly.  Putting Buxton and Correa aside, as they aren't going anywhere, I think the Twins look at Lee, Keaschall, Wallner/Larnach (?), and Jeffers as guys who they think either fill a role or will grow into it.  I think they would like Lewis to grow into a role as well, but we'll see if that actually happens.  That means that they definitely need OF/DH/1B/C#2.  That could change if they see ERod and Jenkins as close enough to fill the OF gap, while Culpepper seems like he's another year away.  Right now DH/1B is a little bit of a black hole.  Backup (or primary) catcher would be a nice idea also.  Work on filling those as a first step.  Don't try to change the team completely in the short term OR try to get short term stopgap veterans to block the youth movement.  Play the guys who you think will be there in 2027, but start in 2026.    

[thelanges5]

Trade off the free agents to be. Give Julien and Miranda one last chance to see if they’re part of the long term plans (I have my doubts). Give Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, McCusker some extended playing time. Let’s see what we’ve got. This will help with some decision making in the off season. 

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Trade off the free agents to be. Give Julien and Miranda one last chance to see if they’re part of the long term plans (I have my doubts). Give Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, McCusker some extended playing time. Let’s see what we’ve got. This will help with some decision making in the off season. 

Yeah, MIranda is just Raking in AAA - 🤢

[mikelink45]

This is a really tough decision - I like Bader and Castro and think they have really been positives on a team of negatives.  Lee and Lewis are massive disappointments based on their draft positions and expectations.  

What we cannot know is if Keaschall comes back to what we saw - remember Lewis also had a great beginning that was derailed by injury.  Larnach is at a plateau - is it high enough to keep him?  I am not a believer.  Wallner showed promise and like the other comparisons has been derailed by injury.  Can we count on him?  Should he be a DH?  

How soon can Walker get here?  I am not a believer in Emma - too many injuries and not enough performance for me.  So who else is ready for the OF?  Gonzales?  

Will they give Eeles a chance?  Can they stop putting in Vasquez every other game?  Is Clemens the new 1B and can he be good enough?  

I am not a believer in Miranda or Julien any more.  Miranda is batting 194 in AAA and has a 558 OPS.  Julien has an 845 OPS so he has a chance. 

 

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Yeah, MIranda is just Raking in AAA - 🤢

I didn't believe you at first...but your right. 

[Blyleven2011]

The twins should not be considered buyers per se  , trade from a strength to fill the weaknesses of the team going forward ...

Get an offer on an expiring contract and it's good enough to fill a weakness , take it ...

Thats what we need to do at this years deadline , trade from our strength and expiring contracts and fill these weaknesses for 2026 ...

You want my money , Make us believers again ...

[jkcarew]

Looks like a lot of work put into this article. I don’t know for SURE if that’s the case, because I didn’t read it. Any analysis that starts with ‘Buying’ is a non-starter for me. There should be a class action law suit brought by the fans against the org if real buying happens. 

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Yeah, MIranda is just Raking in AAA - 🤢

Boy does Miranda needs a change of scenery  , maybe he can play in  Japan or Korea  , I don't think there is any hope for him here ...

I haven't the answers on what's exactly going on with our prospects  , as we know once they get here and play ,  pitchers find their weaknesses and they seem incapable of adjusting  and then become head cases ...

If I had to guess on the answers , it would be coaching at the major league level is not capable of taking a minor league prospect with talent at the minor league level  , bring him up to a harder ML level , now coaches and players should always be capable of adjusting and learning to surviving a faster game ...

i've said it many times , talent needs to continue to get better each step of the way , you never stop learning  ...

[Sjoski]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Yeah, MIranda is just Raking in AAA - 🤢

RpR, i am thankful for your sense of humor which is often found lacking on TD.

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

i've said it many times , talent needs to continue to get better each step of the way , you never stop learning  ...

100% agree...getting to MLB is just one step. The minute you think..." I've made it"...the decent is on. Talent is never enough. 

I think of Mauer who worked hard in the off season to keep up vs a guy like  Sano, who in my limited view, coasted on raw talent.  

One was a stud....the other a dud.

[twinfan]

Put Lewis at first or maybe Wallner and keep Lewis at third. It would be nice to get a Suarez if he can be signed (or is signed) beyond next year. If the Dodgers want either Jax or Duran, will they give us 2 good players? The Cubs might have the best talent major league ready and might be better to deal with. We play the Dodgers this week so let's see what happens. I would not trade both but maybe one will go. Guys like Clemons are still young and he has shown power and clutch hitting. Bader is expendable if we can get someone good for him. This year is shot but don't sell off the team. A healthy pitching staff can get us closer but would give us a good chance next year. And what the heck is WAR and how is it even calculated and is fWAR fu--ingWAR? Stupid stats IMHO. Of course the best hitters are going to have the highest WAR most of the time.