The Minnesota Twins Are Fun Again: Where Things Stand at the One-Quarter Mark

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Coming into the 2025 season, the Twins were the odds-on favorite to win the division. Since then... Look, it’s been a weird start to the season. Remember just a couple of weeks ago, when it appeared the season was all but over for the good guys? On April 27, yours truly wrote a piece detailing how statistically unlikely it would be for the Twins to make the playoffs. Well, it appears I may have been hasty, historical precedents aside. Since then, the Twins have reversed their fortunes. Winning eight games in a row will do that, as will nearly an entire pitching staff showing dominance, and hitters remembering how to hit. In fact, according to FanGraphs, the Twins now have a 49.6% chance to make the postseason, and are (almost) right back to where they started.

For those of you who have tuned out at home due to frustrations with ownership or early-season travails, now just might be a good time to tune back in. There’s some fun baseball happening on a nearly nightly basis. Dating back 30 days to April 13, the Twins have gone on a 14-2 run at home. Generally, they look like a fairly complete team once again, capable of being relevant in September—and maybe beyond.

Every team will go through rough patches and others that drive fan elation. The Twins are no exception. They aren’t as good as they have looked over their last couple weeks, and they are almost certainly better than they looked for the first couple weeks of the season (or during their September swoon last season). You know what, though? They are proving worth watching on a nightly basis. Baseball is a game of averages, adjustments, and more than a fair bit of luck. Anything is possible, and the fun is in the journey.

Can the positive trend of the past few weeks continue, and what should fans expect the rest of the way? Let’s look at a few positives that can inform the future.

Expected Wins and Losses
Despite an impressive stretch of play, relative to teams projected to make the playoffs headed into the season, the Twins have struggled to gain ground. Unfortunately, the other three AL Central teams who are trying to win have all gone on torrid runs of their own. Over the past 10 games, despite going 8-2, the Twins kept pace with the Royals, gained just a single game over the Tigers, and picked up two over the Guardians. But, here’s the good news.

By expected results from runs scored and allowed, the Twins should be 23-18 headed into Tuesday’s road opener against the Orioles. That’s the fifth-best expected win-loss rate in the American League, and it’s better than the Royals and Guardians, both of whom have gotten a bit lucky so far. Cleveland even has a negative run differential, despite being six games over .500.

As it stands, comparing the Twins to the rest of the Central, the Twins have the best pitching by fWAR, and only the Tigers are getting more hitter fWAR than the Twins. While past results aren’t necessarily predictive of future performance, this is still a great sign.

Pitching Staff
Speaking of pitching, this is an easy place to celebrate success. After a rocky first turn through the rotation, the Twins' starting staff has been lights out. Dating back to April 2, among all American League teams, the Twins pitching staff ranks: first in fWAR (6.9), first in FIP (3.25), third in ERA (2.93), third in strikeouts per nine innings (9.3). They have the best walk rate (2.3) and the lowest WHIP (1.11).

Folks, that’s officially elite. Headed into the season, national publications had the Twins among the league leaders in both starting and relief pitching, and despite fans turning this into a punchline on this site and social media, it turns out the prognosticators were correct. The pitching has been a real strength, and there’s no reason to suspect it will implode anytime soon.

Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan have been a formidable three-headed monster, Chris Paddack has put up a sub-3.00 ERA (although secondary results haven’t been as pretty) and Simeon Woods Richardson has been just fine as a fifth starter. For relievers, Jhoan Duran and Danny Coulombe have been nails, Justin Topa and Louis Varland has been solid, and Brock Stewart and Griffin Jax almost certainly won’t pitch as poorly as they have so far this season.

Hitters
This aspect of the Twins has been (and may continue to be) enigmatic. Similar to the pitching staff, Twins hitters (aside from Harrison Bader and Ty France) began their season ice-cold. Dating back to that same April 2 cutoff we looked at for the pitching staff, though, the hitters have been decidedly average. Which, for those of you paying attention headed into the season, that's also where national publications had the hitters performing. More recently, looking at just the past month, the Twins have no fewer than six hitters with an .800 OPS or better.

Matt Wallner will be back before too long, and it’s probably fair to assume he will pick up where he left off: mashing baseballs. Byron Buxton has looked like a guy who will receive MVP votes this season. Harrison Bader looks like an All-Star, offensively and defensively. Carlos Correa has shown signs of heating up after the worst start of his professional career. Luke Keaschall looked like he belonged, prior to his injury. Plus, the Twins just got Royce Lewis back—a slugger who, when he’s right, is capable of carrying the team for a week or two at a time. While the results have been inconsistent, the talent level is high, and should be trending up.

Depth
Beyond the guys getting it done with the big-league club, depth is still an exciting part of what fans can look forward to later in the year. On the pitching side, Zebby Matthews and David Festa continue to wait their turn for a chance, whether it’s injury or performance that creates it. Andrew Morris and Travis Adams are behind them should things get truly desperate, or should a swingman or long reliever be needed on the big-league roster.

For hitters, Carson McCusker keeps making opposing pitching pay by crushing longballs and making hard contact to all fields. Keaschall will be back at some point, and we saw what he makes possible on the base paths and at the plate. And, Emmanuel Rodriguez hasn’t shown great results so far this season at Saint Paul, but he’s shown his hitting prowess at each level, so it’s likely a matter of him getting time to find his stroke. He’s been heating up a bit, and could be a realistic option in the second half, assuming health.

Compared to the other AL Central contenders, the Twins have enviable, high-end depth that should help them weather the injuries that will inevitably befall the team. Their pitching should continue to lead the league, and the hitting should be better than they started. This combination of factors, especially assuming continued solid play, should give fans a reason to keep watching all throughout the summer. It's only a coin-flip that they'll reach October—but we'd all gladly have flipped that coin not long ago.

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[Blyleven2011]

Twins are playing good ball , eight game winning streaks or more are not easy to accomplish  ...

Twins have been my team for a very long time  , win or lose I don't need a reason to follow them throughout the season , if its a good fought loss , im ok with it , if its a blowout loss with lots of mistakes i dont care for it , if it's a hard fought win , i love the suspense , if its a blowout win , its an exciting game ...

It's not whether you win or lose , it's how you play the game  ...

Baseball is a game of professionalism  , practice , practice and practice some more makes them professionals , not the paycheck they receive  ...

the twins will finish 84 and 78 and that's better than I thought at the beginning of the season with the survey ...

[Doctor Gast]

Pitching is rock solid, IMO there is a friendly competition to not throw the next clunker. So SP excellence will continue for a while. As of late, the defense has greatly improved, which also helps the pitching. Our quiet captain of the team has spoken now, "With the return of Lewis & Castro, our team is now complete". The key to our success is chemistry finally kicking in. Once Lewis starts to kick in, (& he will), that can continue to fuel that fire. That is what has been seriously missing. We can always have more fire. We are now in a good place as far as health-wise, I pray for continued health & the return of Wallner & others. I have always advocated that we have a great core. That was never the problem. IMO, Festa & Zebby could come up once in a while to help give the rotation a break. IMO bring up in-house helps the morale.

[Major League Ready]

Put Wallner and Keachall back in the line-up and they have a chance to be one of the better teams in the league with the way they are pitching.  It also wouldn't hurt if Lewis got back to normal.

[FlyingFinn]

"Matt Wallner will be back before too long, and it’s probably fair to assume he will pick up where he left off: mashing baseballs."

Not so sure about that. It may be like spring training again for him. And most years in the upper minors or with the Twins, those first 50 or so plate appearances he's searching for the right swing. Hope I'm wrong.

[Whitey333]

The article is very positive.  We need some positivity.  Lewis?  Who knows?  Remember he finished last season very poorly at a time we needed him most.  He claimed after playing 80 games he was tired. My oh my.  I hope he comes around.  Let's not forget that the Twins were 7-13 in their first 20 games and played terribly.  They are 14-6 in their next 20 games.  Great job.  But let's be realistic here.  The people that said when they were 7-13 kept saying it's early.  Well their 14-6 record since doesn't YET make them champions.  It's still too early right?  I guess not if we are winning.  It's a good thing we started winning or we would be way behind as Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City are even hotter.  Great job Twins!!

[RpR]

 

The article is very positive.  We need some positivity.  Lewis?  Who knows?  Remember he finished last season very poorly at a time we needed him most.  He claimed after playing 80 games he was tired. My oh my.  I hope he comes around.  Let's not forget that the Twins were 7-13 in their first 20 games and played terribly.  They are 14-6 in their next 20 games.  Great job.  But let's be realistic here.  The people that said when they were 7-13 kept saying it's early.  Well their 14-6 record since doesn't YET make them champions.  It's still too early right?  I guess not if we are winning.  It's a good thing we started winning or we would be way behind as Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City are even hotter.  Great job Twins!!

The Sept. collapse gremlin is the biggest apprehension.

[knothole61]

Nice to have the boys back over .500 again...but of course this is just "the end of the beginning." Detroit is a solid, in some respects frightening, team, and Cleveland and KC show no signs of implosion at present. This should be an old-fashioned horse race (-CWS) for the Division crown all summer long, I think, and what more could we ask for?       

[JD-TWINS]

TEAM ERA is 3.32………starters will have some bad outings occasionally but with the 5 they roll out now and the bullpen staying within their capabilities the Team will be competing almost certainly on a daily basis.

Lewis - Wallner - Keaschall displacing Gasper - Clemens - Kiersey is a big change in the 13 man position player roster! Potentially, McCusker makes an appearance after Castro can focus on IF duties (w/Wallner’s return) and Bride is displaced. Miranda too could turn things around in another month?

[Linus]

More than anything the win streak means the season should be meaningful. For a while I was worried we were going to have to  wait until next year. I don’t do research so this is from memory: the Twins seem to consistently underperform their expected win / loss record. First does anybody know if that is factually true and second how is that calculated?  In other words what’s the missing link?  Fielding, costly baserunning mistakes, etc?

[mikelink45]

I too am guilty of giving up to soon. So let's hope the team does not find reverse. Winning is so much fun.  

[DJL44]

 

The Sept. collapse gremlin is the biggest apprehension.

They're the same team as last year - streaky as hell with huge swings in results.

[LambchoP]

I think Mccusker should get a chance. He's done everything he can in AAA. Keirsey provides nothing with the bat, he's basically a pinch runner and late game defensive sub. Having a potential RH power bat in the lineup would provide much more value. Look at what Keaschal was doing before he got hurt. If they still want Keirsey for late game, send down Clemens or Bride. With Castro back, our IF depth is set. I also think one of our AAA pitching prospects could get a chance in the bullpen. Alcala looks totally lost and Tonkin is not able to be the replacement. Adams is already on the 40 man and pitching in relief, maybe give him his call up ....

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Winning cures all they say.

I talk a lot about the big six staying healthy and performing will always give the Twins a punchers chance. Lopez, Bailey, Ober, and Buxton are all doing what is expected. Lewis is just coming back and Correa has been just short of terrible.

It helps to have Paddack and a few of the relievers pitching well. The offense has shown a little life, but it needs to be sustained.

The Indians are pretenders, it will be tough for them to maintain all season. The Royals and Twins are somewhat similar. The TIgers are real. The Twins still have their work cut out for them if they are going to make a serious playoff run.

[spanman2]

Back to relevancy...playing ball that is fun to watch.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Is it more fun to watch the Twins play the Orioles, Angels, White Sox, and those of bottom feeders ilk?

[RpR]

 

Is it more fun to watch the Twins play the Orioles, Angels, White Sox, and those of bottom feeders ilk?

No.