What Do Pablo López's High Grapefruit League Pitch Counts Tell Us, Exactly?

[Matthew Lenz]

Pitchers don't work deep into spring training games anymore. That custom is long gone; the game has changed. For the Twins' ace, though, there still seems to be some value in getting the pitch count ratcheted way up in March.

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

In Sunday’s Grapefruit League start against the Boston Red Sox, Pablo López threw 87 pitches, which is seven more than any Twins pitcher has thrown in a spring training game for which we have that information (admittedly, only back to 2008, and even then, incomplete). In his previous start, he threw 78 pitches, which was the most that had been tracked in a game played before Mar. 15. In fact, López’s last three starts all rank in the top 30 in pitches thrown of all starts this spring.

Although it was never that simple anyway, this seems to go against the idea that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is too conservative with his starters' pitch counts. While we can't come up with anything definitive—Baldelli hasn't spoken to López’s pitch counts, specifically—it stands to reason that Baldelli is building up López to go deeper in games. In two seasons with the Twins, López has pitched 379 ⅓ innings across 64 starts, good for eighth and 10th, respectively, across baseball. This equates to just under six innings per start, which is about half an inning shorter than innings leader Logan Webb over the same timeframe. While López has been a relative workhorse for the Twins, just getting one more out per start would result in him basically topping the innings leaderboard. More than pitch counts and innings limits, Baldelli does tend to go to the bullpen once the lineup turns over a second time. Since López is already an innings eater of sorts, would it make sense to push him to face lineups a third time through?

Since taking over ahead of the 2019 season, Baldelli has allowed Twins starters to face the lineup a third time the eighth-fewest times in baseball. However, López in particular has actually faced opposing batters a third time the ninth-most, and in those showdowns, he carries a spectacular 2.59 FIP and a 22.2% K-BB rate. While the data generally favors a hitter the third time they’ve seen a pitcher, López bucks that trend by getting better as the game goes on. In fact, the first time through a lineup, López has a 4.11 FIP with a 21.4% K-BB rate, both of which are also worse than the same statistics the second time through a lineup. While that’s noteworthy, comparing him to the relievers who typically enter in the fifth through seventh innings is even more interesting.

 

Of pitchers who have pitched at least 20 frames in the fifth through seventh innings over the last two seasons, López has the third-best FIP (2.88), fourth-best K-BB rate (23.1%), and the seventh-best strand rate (74.1% - “above average”, per Fangraphs). In short, not only does López get better the deeper he goes but he’s produced at a better clip than nearly all of the pitchers who would likely relieve him. Now, to be fair, that data may be a little skewed—typically, if things are clicking and he’s cruising, he’s going to be allowed to go deeper into games. Regardless, pushing López through the fifth and even into the sixth inning more consistently will have a chain reaction on keeping the bullpen fresh, and that could be the motivation in pushing his pitch count. Or, maybe it’s more simple than that.

While his 87-pitch performance was still an outlier, López has typically ramped up in the second half of March, hitting the 60-pitch mark eight times since 2021 and the 70-pitch mark five times. He might simply feel, more than most other pitchers, that he needs that early volume in order to be ready for the season. While I think there is something telling to him approaching 90 pitches on Mar. 16 (with at least one spring training start to go), it could also be that he’s simply doing what he needs to do to get ready for the season. For what it’s worth, I tend to believe that López will be pushed to go deeper into games in an attempt to leave the bullpen well-rested—and indrectly relieve the back end of the rotation who may be on a bit of an innings limit.

Regardless of how much you want to look into spring training stats, López’s 87-pitch performance is quite notable, considering it’s the most in well over a decade. Whether it really has any deeper meaning remains to be seen, and we likely won’t have our answer until we're well into the season. 

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What are your takeaways from Pablo’s 87-pitch outing? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[IndianaTwin]

Last year, “pushing Lopez through the fifth” probably wouldn’t have been that great of an idea, given that the six times he didn’t make it through the fifth he had given up 6, 5, 3, 7, 5 and 7 runs. 

Lopez is pretty much the definition of refuting “Rocco doesn’t let pitchers face a lineup a third time.” He pitched to an average of 24.2 batters in his starts, which means on average he pitched to the Nos. 1-6 a third time. 

And further, Ober faced an average of 22.9 hitters, so basically one less. Take out the game in which he got hurt and Ryan was just over 24 batters per game. 

More accurate seems to be, “Rocco doesn’t let his weaker starters face a lineup a third time.” I don’t have a problem with that. 

[twinstalker]

I'm going to suggest he back off in his last start.

[TwinsDr2021]

@Matthew Lenz what does this mean?

Baldelli does tend to go to the bullpen once the lineup turns over a second time. Since López is already an innings eater of sorts, would it make sense to push him to face lineups a third time through?

Lopez averaged facing 24 batters each game, doesn't that mean he averaged facing the first 6 batters 3 times?

Ryan averaged 23, Ober a hair under 33, and SWR averaged 20.

I guess what I am saying and asking is they aren't being pulled when the lineup turns over, but they are also not allowed to face the worst hitters a third time (for whatever reason, pitch count, situation or whatever the case is)

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

@Matthew Lenz what does this mean?

Baldelli does tend to go to the bullpen once the lineup turns over a second time. Since López is already an innings eater of sorts, would it make sense to push him to face lineups a third time through?

Lopez averaged facing 24 batters each game, doesn't that mean he averaged facing the first 6 batters 3 times?

Ryan averaged 23, Ober a hair under 33, and SWR averaged 20.

I guess what I am saying and asking is they aren't being pulled when the lineup turns over, but they are also not allowed to face the worst hitters a third time (for whatever reason, pitch count, situation or whatever the case is)

Typo. Ober is a hair under 23.

Ryan's average is affected by the last start, when he was pulled after two innings because of injury. Take out that start and he's just over 24 batters per start. 

Another way to frame the difference between them and SWR, for example, is to say that those three were given the chance to work through the 3-4-5-6 part of the order more often than SWR, which makes sense.

It's not so much saying that the Big Three can't extend to go through the bottom of the order -- any pitcher should be able to do that -- but that they can extend to go through the middle more often than a weaker starter. 

 

(And since we on TD should never miss out on a chance to pile on Paddack (/sarcasm emoji), we should also look at him. Oops, take out the start when he was pulled because of injury and he averages 23.2 batters, which means he's between Ryan and Ober. Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to discount him as an option for length? 😀)

[ashbury]

If I conveniently forgot that this is Spring Training, an article examining the ins and outs of an 87-pitch start would be the most 2025 thing ever.

[IndianaTwin]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

If I conveniently forgot that this is Spring Training, an article examining the ins and outs of an 87-pitch start would be the most 2025 thing ever.

Yep. I'm ready for Opening Day as well. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

This was a fascinating article. Thanks Matthew.

[LambchoP]

Lopez has typically been a bit of a slow starter, with his worst starts coming early in April and May. Maybe they're just trying to get more innings in earlier to get him to mid season form quicker which would be a good thing.

[tony&rodney]

Starting pitchers work forward on their pitch counts beginning at an inning or around 20 pitches. The progression then goes more or less forward by 15-20 pitches. Pablo Lopez indicated in an interview during the game that he was working on a couple of things and wanted to push past the scheduled pitch mark. Lopez is an experienced pitcher and Baldelli will pull him at points where he is off and ineffective during the season but the pitch count this week simply reflects what Lopez was working towards. I wouldn't say this is too unusual or noteworthy. Skenes was up to 85 pitches yesterday in his last start before Opening Day as well.

[Nashvilletwin]

Maybe the pitch count hasn’t been the goal; instead, maybe it’s been the number of outs. 

[h2oface]

When your hyped best pitcher is giving up about an earned run per inning, I guess you have to try to find something hopeful to spin it is a good thing, and ignore the rest of his ramp up performance. A lot of top pitchers seem more inclined to look and actual results as a more important indicator. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

When your hyped best pitcher is giving up about an earned run per inning, I guess you have to try to find something hopeful to spin it is a good thing, and ignore the rest of his ramp up performance. A lot off top pitchers seem more inclined to look and actual results as a more important indicator. 

You mean like Lugo's 4.97, Ragan's 5.79, Greene's 5.63, Wheeler's 5.00 or Cease's 4.61? 

Established starters are notorious for using spring training to work on specific things. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

You mean like Lugo's 4.97, Ragan's 5.79, Greene's 5.63, Wheeler's 5.00 or Cease's 4.61? 

Established starters are notorious for using spring training to work on specific things. 

Agreed!! Last year Pablo had bad spring training results and was a shut down pitcher in April and May!!

[DocBauer]

Pablo has great stuff. Pablo is a dependable innings eater. But he's also been a bit of a slow starter, at least since he's been with the Twins.

In 2023 and 2024 he wasn't bad, but he wasn't great. And then a switch gets flicked and he settles down and starts to look really good. That switch was turned on a little later in '24 than '23. For whatever reason, the switch reversed itself a little bit late last season. Was it just a landslide that seemed to engulf the entire team?

He's a very intelligent person. ST means little to him other than getting in work and trying a few things here and there. But it does seem that it takes him a little while to just a complete "feel" for all of his pitches. So they might be trying for more IP in ST this year to "warm him up" to get said "feel" working earlier.

EVERY pitcher, even the cream of the crop, have bad days. But Pablo was a #1 for about 3/4 of the 2023 season. The same for about 2/3 in 2024. I think extra innings this ST is an attempt to get him closer to 2023, if not better.

SIDE NOTE: They are reportedly taking a similar approach with position players, especially with ST winding down, more AB to get ready.

[DocBauer]

10 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Typo. Ober is a hair under 23.

Ryan's average is affected by the last start, when he was pulled after two innings because of injury. Take out that start and he's just over 24 batters per start. 

Another way to frame the difference between them and SWR, for example, is to say that those three were given the chance to work through the 3-4-5-6 part of the order more often than SWR, which makes sense.

It's not so much saying that the Big Three can't extend to go through the bottom of the order -- any pitcher should be able to do that -- but that they can extend to go through the middle more often than a weaker starter. 

 

(And since we on TD should never miss out on a chance to pile on Paddack (/sarcasm emoji), we should also look at him. Oops, take out the start when he was pulled because of injury and he averages 23.2 batters, which means he's between Ryan and Ober. Maybe we shouldn't be so quick to discount him as an option for length? 😀)

So what you're saying, even with your small correction, is Rocco DOESN'T have a quick hook with competent SP?

I'm absolutely agast!

(Massive tongue in cheek sarcasm)

I really wish the whole "quick hook" mantra would just die based on facts.

[h2oface]

On 3/18/2025 at 1:00 PM, IndianaTwin said:

You mean like Lugo's 4.97, Ragan's 5.79, Greene's 5.63, Wheeler's 5.00 or Cease's 4.61? 

Established starters are notorious for using spring training to work on specific things. 

No, I mean about double that. (Remember, Lopez was also over 4 for the 2024 season, more of an innings eater than #1 numbers - pretty close to Cease and Lugo right now!) But you know what it is. It just came down from 9 something to about 8. You are right. It gives me more confidence if our pitchers absolutely suck in spring training rather than looking like Ober. What fools gold that is, eh? Correa is right on track, too. The non Twins fans and writers that are published national prognosticators all like both Ober and Ryan more than Lopez in the predictions (not that that means anything, either).

[Senior Softball Guy]

Pitchers that rely on their changeups like Radke and Lopez get better as the game goes because they establish their fastballs early to set up the change. Teams tend to jump on these pitchers early.