What Do Pablo López's High Grapefruit League Pitch Counts Tell Us, Exactly?

In Sunday’s Grapefruit League start against the Boston Red Sox, Pablo López threw 87 pitches, which is seven more than any Twins pitcher has thrown in a spring training game for which we have that information (admittedly, only back to 2008, and even then, incomplete). In his previous start, he threw 78 pitches, which was the most that had been tracked in a game played before Mar. 15. In fact, López’s last three starts all rank in the top 30 in pitches thrown of all starts this spring.

Although it was never that simple anyway, this seems to go against the idea that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is too conservative with his starters' pitch counts. While we can't come up with anything definitive—Baldelli hasn't spoken to López’s pitch counts, specifically—it stands to reason that Baldelli is building up López to go deeper in games. In two seasons with the Twins, López has pitched 379 ⅓ innings across 64 starts, good for eighth and 10th, respectively, across baseball. This equates to just under six innings per start, which is about half an inning shorter than innings leader Logan Webb over the same timeframe. While López has been a relative workhorse for the Twins, just getting one more out per start would result in him basically topping the innings leaderboard. More than pitch counts and innings limits, Baldelli does tend to go to the bullpen once the lineup turns over a second time. Since López is already an innings eater of sorts, would it make sense to push him to face lineups a third time through?

Since taking over ahead of the 2019 season, Baldelli has allowed Twins starters to face the lineup a third time the eighth-fewest times in baseball. However, López in particular has actually faced opposing batters a third time the ninth-most, and in those showdowns, he carries a spectacular 2.59 FIP and a 22.2% K-BB rate. While the data generally favors a hitter the third time they’ve seen a pitcher, López bucks that trend by getting better as the game goes on. In fact, the first time through a lineup, López has a 4.11 FIP with a 21.4% K-BB rate, both of which are also worse than the same statistics the second time through a lineup. While that’s noteworthy, comparing him to the relievers who typically enter in the fifth through seventh innings is even more interesting.

Of pitchers who have pitched at least 20 frames in the fifth through seventh innings over the last two seasons, López has the third-best FIP (2.88), fourth-best K-BB rate (23.1%), and the seventh-best strand rate (74.1% - “above average”, per Fangraphs). In short, not only does López get better the deeper he goes but he’s produced at a better clip than nearly all of the pitchers who would likely relieve him. Now, to be fair, that data may be a little skewed—typically, if things are clicking and he’s cruising, he’s going to be allowed to go deeper into games. Regardless, pushing López through the fifth and even into the sixth inning more consistently will have a chain reaction on keeping the bullpen fresh, and that could be the motivation in pushing his pitch count. Or, maybe it’s more simple than that.

While his 87-pitch performance was still an outlier, López has typically ramped up in the second half of March, hitting the 60-pitch mark eight times since 2021 and the 70-pitch mark five times. He might simply feel, more than most other pitchers, that he needs that early volume in order to be ready for the season. While I think there is something telling to him approaching 90 pitches on Mar. 16 (with at least one spring training start to go), it could also be that he’s simply doing what he needs to do to get ready for the season. For what it’s worth, I tend to believe that López will be pushed to go deeper into games in an attempt to leave the bullpen well-rested—and indrectly relieve the back end of the rotation who may be on a bit of an innings limit.

Regardless of how much you want to look into spring training stats, López’s 87-pitch performance is quite notable, considering it’s the most in well over a decade. Whether it really has any deeper meaning remains to be seen, and we likely won’t have our answer until we're well into the season. 

What are your takeaways from Pablo’s 87-pitch outing? Join the conversation in the comments!