Hayes: "Minnesota Twins are believed to have $5 million [to spend]"

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If they're trying to win, yeah. It is completely unrealistic to think they can build an entire team out of pre-arb talent. They would have to be the best team in the league at drafting and developing in all of MLB by a wide margin.

 

9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Chris Colabello made the minimum along with 13 other pre-arb Blue Jays in 2015. 

With a 27th ranked Payroll. The Blue Jays finished 1st in the AL East with a 93-69 Record. Chris Colabello out performed Manual Margot. With the money not spent on those 14 pre-arb players. They were able to pay bigger contracts to Buehrle, Bautista, Tulowitski, Martin, Encarnacion and Price. 

 

[stringer bell]

I expect the Twins will probably sign someone like Connor Joe for small dollars (<$2.5M), He can play both first and outfield and hits right handed. Dunno if he would be a better player than Margot and would hope that he doesn't stand in the way of prospects. Joe is a lower priced and younger Mark Canha.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You are responding to me... that Martin can play center. 

You should direct that comment to DJL44.

Martin couldn't play CF last season. Let's all hope he makes a dramatic improvement this offseason or we will see many more innings of bad OF play from Austin Martin in 2025.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

If any of those guys will sign a  ST invite that provides a $2M contract if they make the team, sure ok. 

Otherwise forget about it. 

I'm fine with giving both an infielder and an outfielder $2-3M and a major league roster spot. They shouldn't worry about cutting Helman or Gasper as both are waiver wire level talent. Maybe Zoll will figure out that he's allowed to cut players during the season and add new ones.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm fine with giving both an infielder and an outfielder $2-3M and a major league roster spot. They shouldn't worry about cutting Helman or Gasper as both are waiver wire level talent. Maybe Zoll will figure out that he's allowed to cut players during the season and add new ones.

I'm not opposed to a signing either but all of the names we have gone over have declined in talent, usefulness, and are injury prone. This leaves a team with virtually no reason to make a contract offer that an experienced player will usually take. Having said that, we know that both Profar and Iglesias signed for $1 million just last year, so maybe the Twins sign someone like Bader, Grichuk, or Iglesias for $1 million this year. The key is to keep any signing at a minimum, max $2M, and with the idea to jettison the player if they are toast. 

Michael Helman is an unusual player. He is older, is adequate with a glove almost everywhere, runs well, and has pop in his bat. He also is often injured and prone to striking out a ton. Every time I have watched him play he displays the skills and qualities a team would want in a utility player but he also has those empty plate appearances too. Forgetting his age and stats, the Twins might want to think about his ability to fill a role. If you haven'y seen him play on numerous occasions, I don't think you can judge him accurately. He is an enigma of sorts. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I expect the Twins will probably sign someone like Connor Joe for small dollars (<$2.5M), He can play both first and outfield and hits right handed. Dunno if he would be a better player than Margot and would hope that he doesn't stand in the way of prospects. Joe is a lower priced and younger Mark Canha.

Exactly my expectations. 

Connor Joe had 246 PA's vs RHP last year. He had 170 PA's vs LHP last year.  

His OPS was .670 vs Right Handed Pitching last year. Austin Martin had a .675 OPS vs RHP last year. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

Michael Helman is an unusual player. He is older, is adequate with a glove almost everywhere, runs well, and has pop in his bat. He also is often injured and prone to striking out a ton. Every time I have watched him play he displays the skills and qualities a team would want in a utility player but he also has those empty plate appearances too. Forgetting his age and stats, the Twins might want to think about his ability to fill a role. If you haven'y seen him play on numerous occasions, I don't think you can judge him accurately. He is an enigma of sorts. 

Waiver-wire level talent is still pretty talented in the grand scheme of things. Diego Castillo, for example, filled in adequately when they needed him last year.

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Exactly my expectations. 

Connor Joe had 246 PA's vs RHP last year. He had 170 PA's vs LHP last year.  

His OPS was .670 vs Right Handed Pitching last year. Austin Martin had a .675 OPS vs RHP last year. 

Connor Joe caught the ball when it was hit toward him. Martin didn't. I think it's worth spending $2M to improve the defense even if it doesn't improve the offense.

[stringer bell]

I’m not ready to write off Martin as a lost cause and I really hope he can stick around and use his good speed, since the Twins have so few fast runners. 

[stringer bell]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Waiver-wire level talent is still pretty talented in the grand scheme of things. Diego Castillo, for example, filled in adequately when they needed him last year.

I’d say it was way to small a sample to say whether Castillo “filled in adequately” last year.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I’m not ready to write off Martin as a lost cause and I really hope he can stick around and use his good speed, since the Twins have so few fast runners. 

Me neither. Are you ready to hand him a roster spot without any real competition? Do you think he earned a roster spot with his performance last season?

[Russ]

Convince the fans there is an effort to win and speed up the sale 

[stringer bell]

36 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Me neither. Are you ready to hand him a roster spot without any real competition? Do you think he earned a roster spot with his performance last season?

There shouldn’t be scholarships for anyone that hasn’t played a full year IMHO and I think Julien needs to earn his way back to the majors as well. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I have long felt the 130mil budget had been dropped. But I also contend that any kind of addition will need a subtraction. If they are going to spend 5 mil someone will need to get traded. I don't see anyone getting moved anytime soon. Vazquez. Why would someone take him when they can sign McCann for very good chance of cheaper? Unless we pay off 6-7 mil of his salary. Then we can sign McCann. How does this improve us? Or we sign Connor Joe and have Gasper and Camargo backing up Jeffers. We are now way worse of a team. Paddack. Why would someone trade for Paddack when there are still numerous FA's floating around who are as good as him, and some will be cheaper that cost zero talent being traded to the Twins? I believe what we see is what we get. Aside from another very low level guy who will take an milb with an invite. I have no issue with these other than Kiersey and Hellman should still have the edge since they are our own already. I do have a hunch that Kiersey can do the job.

The best chance of a trade are our prospects for low cost controllable players, or other prospects. 

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The best chance of a trade are our prospects for low cost controllable players, or other prospects. 

Actually I think there is a chance at a major trade. This may be particularly true if all of Larnach, Wallner, Rodriguez, Miranda, Julien, Eeles, Keaschall, Lee, along with others like pitchers Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, C. J. Culpepper, and Cory Lewis look really good through March. Stuff can happen. I don't expect anything, which is what I have said but not wanted since last October. We shall see.

[Twodogs]

On 1/31/2025 at 11:53 AM, tony&amp;rodney said:

Hard decisions to make and Falvey gets the big bucks.

Sounds more or less like what has already been discussed at some length - Cease for 1)SWR or Matthews, 2)Larnach, 3)a prospect like Raya or K. Culpepper, and 4)Castro. Can the Twins substitute Julien or Miranda for Larnach or Castro?

Same questions apply: Do the Twins feel Emmanuel Rodriguez is ready now? How confident are the Twins in receiving production from Brooks Lee and host of others (Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Eeles, and Keaschall)?

Preller knows he isn't getting the top 3 prospects or either Ryan or Ober. The discussion with the Cubs contains mostly top 100 prospects with high risks. That doesn't help the Padres whatsoever. Likely everyone just rolls with what they have into the season.

Hopefully, if it were to happen the way you are showing, I'd like them to convince them to take Julien instead of Castro, probably more risk but also more upside if he figures it out.  Only because Castro is kind of the Twins Swiss Army knife this year and last year.  Julien might have more upside in the long term, but Castro is just needed more for this year's team!

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/1/2025 at 8:56 AM, IndianaTwin said:

I'll nuance my agreement with Tony & Rodney's next statement in saying that when I looked this afternoon, I didn't also see anybody that I like better than the parallel person already on the roster.

That pretty much sums it up for me. By playing their usual waiting game, the Twins have lost out on any possibly impactful free agents.  Sure, there are a few bargains out there, but why bother at this point. It's either make a trade or just use what we have in the system. 

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I’d say it was way to small a sample to say whether Castillo “filled in adequately” last year.

He played 15 innings. 6 AB's. 

Called up July 14... Sent back down June 24. 4 of those days were all-star break so he was in uniform for 5 games. 

On July 14. Kyle Farmer was slashing .189/.291/.265 - Margot was slashing .233/.296/.332 

 

 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

That pretty much sums it up for me. By playing their usual waiting game, the Twins have lost out on any possibly impactful free agents.  Sure, there are a few bargains out there, but why bother at this point. It's either make a trade or just use what we have in the system. 

I'm team use what we have in the system

[Ryan Atkins]

Mike Soroka just got $9 million from Washington. He has 2 wins after the year 2019.

$5 million gets you a ball boy and a bag of popcorn. Might as well save that money to pay for some good fan promotions because the play on the field isn't going to bring anyone to the ballpark.

[Vanimal46]

If we indeed have $5 million to spend, then the Twins should be all in on claiming Ryan Braiser from the Dodgers. Owed $4.5 mill 

66.2 IP, 1.89 ERA, 220 ERA+, 2.83 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .169 AVG, 19.0 K-BB%

If they do that, I might start buying into the “best bullpen in baseball” narrative 

[Cory Engelhardt]

So Dan was on Foul Territory today, a youtube show. I thought it was a good segment. Just sharing the link. His spot starts about the 48.50 mark give or take.

He doesn't think it's likely the Twins get Cease, but he thinks it's something they should do.

 

[thelanges5]

59 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

So Dan was on Foul Territory today, a youtube show. I thought it was a good segment. Just sharing the link. His spot starts about the 48.50 mark give or take.

He doesn't think it's likely the Twins get Cease, but he thinks it's something they should do.

 

Good stuff from Dan as always. Thanks for sharing. 

[TheLeviathan]

This thread really brings me back to 1995.

[tony&rodney]

56 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Good stuff from Dan as always. Thanks for sharing. 

I was a little disappointed, but not at all surprised, that Hayes did not repeat what he felt might be a fair deal for both teams. Understandable he kept away from speculation.

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/4/2025 at 1:40 AM, Vanimal46 said:

If we indeed have $5 million to spend, then the Twins should be all in on claiming Ryan Braiser from the Dodgers. Owed $4.5 mill 

66.2 IP, 1.89 ERA, 220 ERA+, 2.83 FIP, 0.83 WHIP, .169 AVG, 19.0 K-BB%

If they do that, I might start buying into the “best bullpen in baseball” narrative 

Good idea, but bad timing: The Dodgers traded him to the Cubs yesterday!

[Cory Engelhardt]

On 2/3/2025 at 12:38 PM, Ryan Atkins said:

Mike Soroka just got $9 million from Washington. He has 2 wins after the year 2019.

$5 million gets you a ball boy and a bag of popcorn. Might as well save that money to pay for some good fan promotions because the play on the field isn't going to bring anyone to the ballpark.

Only came here to point out WHY Soroka got paid.

As a starter in 2024, he was AWFUL. 0-5 record, 47 2/3 innings, 28 walks, 31 k's, a 5.85 era and a 5.5 fip. He was cooked.

Then, when switching to a reliever, he really was pretty remarkable.

32 innings pitched, 53 k's, 16 walks, a 3.09 era and a 2.76 fip. That's 14.91 k's per 9.

It's a small sample, granted. But the Nationals are paying him because he struck out that many guys when he switched to the bullpen.

[kroll]

On 2/1/2025 at 10:32 AM, Riverbrian said:

AAA depth that won't perform according to you is not depth. They are just jerseys with names on the back of them. They are just going to be called up and slaughtered so what's the point. We will sign another Margot instead and keep doing it year after year.  

Manual Margot has a .626 OPS last year. Kept his job all year. 

Here are a list of rookies (over 100 AB's) who had a higher OPS than Margot had in 2024. 

Blue Jays:

Spencer Horwitz

Leo Jimenez

Orioles:

Colton Cowser

Rays:

Junior Caminaro

Red Sox:

Ceddane Rafaela

Wilyer Abreu

David Hamilton

Yankees:

Austin Wells

Guardians:

Daniel Schneeman

Jhonkensy Noel

Angel Martinez

Kyle Manzardo

Tigers:

Colt Keith

Wenceel Perez

Parker Meadows

Justin Henry-Malloy

Trey Sweeney

Twins: 

Austin Martin

A's:

Kyle McCann

Angels:

Nolan Schanuel

Astros:

Joey Loperfido (Also on the Blue Jays List of Rookies)

Rangers:

Wyatt Langford

Evan Carter

Marlins:

Otto Lopez

Connor Norby

Nationals:

Jacob Young

James Wood

Jose Tena

Andres Chaparro

Dylan Crews

Brewers:

Jackson Chourio

Joey Ortiz

Cards:

Maysn Winn

Pedro Pages

Cubs:

Michael Busch

Pete Crow-Armstrong

D-backs:

Blaze Alexander

Dodgers:

Andy Pages

Giants:

Tyler Fitzgerald

Jung Ho Lee

Padres:

Jackson Merrill

Rockies:

Hunter Goodman

I believe that is 42 total

Here's a list of rookies (over 100 AB's) who didn't have a higher OPS than Margot had in 2024. 

Blue Jays:

Addison Bargar

Joey Loperfido

Orioles:

Jackson Holliday

Rays:

Curtis Mead

Yankees:

Ben Rice

Guardians:

Brayan Rocchio

Royals:

Nick Loftin

Twins:

Brooks Lee

White Sox:

Dominic Fletcher

Brooks Baldwin

A's:

Max Schuemann

Darell Hernaiz

Brett Harris

Nationals: 

Trey Lipscomb

Cards: 

Michael Siani

Victor Scott

Reds:

Noelvi Marte

Giants:

Grant McCray

Rockies:

Jordan Beck

 I believe that is 19 total

 

So if you read through the entire list. That is a total of 60 Rookies (Loperfido took 2 spots) who received at least 100 AB's in 2024.

41 out of 60 were better than Margot. That is 68%. I'll take those odds at the major league minimum opposed to 4 million spent on below average production. Actually I would take those odds if it was 33% just for the possible discovery of someone who might help us out next year. 

Now let's look at that number 60. That's how many Rookies got at least 100 AB's last year. 439 Players were given at least 100 AB's in the majors in 2024. So... 14% were Rookies. 14% is the opportunity afforded to Rookies to clear the low bar of 100 AB's while Manual Margot stays on the club all damn year.  

There were 86 Players with less AB's than Margot got and a lower OPS than Margot produced. 

There were 20 Players with more AB's than Margot got and a lower OPS than Margot produced. Only 2 were rookies. 

That's 106 players - 19 of those players are rookies. 18% of those sucking below the Margot line were rookies.

That means 82% of those worse than Margot were not rookies. Take that with the 68% of Rookies performing better than Margot. 

And... Well... I'm not afraid of Rookies and I really don't understand why you are. 

 

 

 

 

Geez.......could you list a few more players?

 

 

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, kroll said:

Geez.......could you list a few more players?

 

 

Comprehensive list of all rookies with over 100 AB's. 

If there were more rookies with over 100 AB's.

The Answer is... Yes I could list a few more players. 

[tony&rodney]

Are we feeling any possibility of a Cease trade after the Bader thing today? Can't think of another reason for Bader. Defense-yes, but at a price more than was likely out there from anyone else. Did Falvey want insurance before a trade?