Report: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres Have Had Conversations Around Christian Vázquez, Dylan Cease

[Trov]

I find it interesting that Padres are shopping Cease.  They would clearly have no intention of resigning him in offseason.  After giving up some prospects for 1 year, and they are still in a win now mentality, but more shifting to a Rays/Cleveland type of reloading from players set to walk in FA.  If you could get him for Vasequez and one of our pre-arb arms it might be worth it on the 1 year rental. It would jump us to possibly top rotation in the division having the second best starter in the division.  

The biggest question is do you believe in his health this year?  He is 29, pitched full seasons 4 years in a row, 5 if you count 2020 as a full season, being he did not miss any games.  He may be in a possible injury year which is a big risk if you are dealing any of your current starters to get him. 

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If Vazquez and his .575 OPS are the key to survival. 

The season is already over. 

With this analytical mania, many have this philosophy, that a good MLB player has to have a .700 OPS. In reality, that's not true. Each position is very different, depending on its defensive premium. DH has to have a well-above- .700 OPS, IMO above .850 because that's their job to mash likewise the priority for 1B & RF is the bat, around .850 OPS. LF above .800 OPS the slight priority here is also the bat. 3B there's a balance between glove & bat, around a .800. Up the middle is where defense has to take priority & less focus OPS. SS & 2B have to have range to get to GBs & turn DPs. 2B's OPS is around .700, SS & CF around .650 OPS & catching around .600 OPS. If LF or 3B have an above-average glove then I'd adjust my OPS requirement lower. My standard is that all up-the-middle positions have to have an above-average glove. If they have a very good to elite glove. I'd discount OPS or a very good base-runner or clutch hitter, I'd discount more. 

Vazquez had great OPS when he was established at BOS, In His last years he caught at least 138 games (except '20, he had his best OPS .800) & still was very productive OFF/DEF. Only after leaving BOS did his OPS fall below .600 (discounting his early years) due to all of his focus was spent on knowing the pitchers & the team. I see his OPS will be closer to his career average of .673 this season. The problem with our offense isn't that Vazquez isn't doing his job, It's some of the others aren't doing theirs.

Molina knew his pitchers, he studied the opponents' hitters, base-runners & game plan. He was elite defensively, he had a catcher's heart where he loved to be on every play, he worked with his INFers to make magnificent plays that normal catchers couldn't dream of. A leader, he added chemistry & unity on the field. Vazquez isn't a Molina but he has a catcher's heart & is a good friend of Molina where I could imagine them spending many hrs. talking catching. So I don't buy that over-simplistic universal .700 OPS standard.

With Vazquez (WAR doesn't do justice), Jeffers performs well at the weaker-side tandem, we are 18th in catching. At the premium position, I'd like for us to be at least in the top 10 to be competitive. That means adding not subtracting. W/O Vazquez, that means Jeffers takes the primary duty of catching every day. History tells us that Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties for any extended amount of time. He will falter & land on the IL. In '22 we had Sanchez, he was bad but at least he had some viable MLB experience, Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper have realistically have none. All of them need to spend all their time in AAA in '25.

So with Vazquez, we have a chance to make the playoffs as is. Jeffers's OPS during his primary catching duties in '22 was .648 & his defense metrics were pretty bad, he had a .9 fWAR plus the others would put together -WAR. Looking at other teams' projected WAR for '25 that'd put us in the bottom of the barrel, so yeah that would kill any postseason hopes.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, CoasterProductions said:

Give them Matthews, Raya, and Gonzalez with Vazquez and I think it’s a done deal.

He’s only guaranteed for 1 year - supposedly they want a veteran catcher…….

Matthews - Vazquez should be enough……Gonzalez as well if necessary. No reason to give Raya away, IMO.

I think we agree, Cease is pretty good but a no-hitter is one game & it’s history. Cannot trade Ryan or Ober or even Festa (with his upside & years of control) for Cease - that’s a zero add and Team loses years of control.

[Otaknam]

The only reason to trade top young prospects for one year of Cease is if the Twins are poised to make a serious playoff run, and they think Cease is the missing piece. But they’re not, based on how last year went. In any case, IMO, these minor league guys should be untouchable in any trade: Jenkins, Rodriquez, Raya, Winokur, Keaschall, Prielipp, and Soto. They should be in build for the future mode, and Cease isn’t part of that with a one year contract, unless the trade pieces are for lower ranked prospects.

[Otaknam]

21 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

With this analytical mania, many have this philosophy, that a good MLB player has to have a .700 OPS. In reality, that's not true. Each position is very different, depending on its defensive premium. DH has to have a well-above- .700 OPS, IMO above .850 because that's their job to mash likewise the priority for 1B & RF is the bat, around .850 OPS. LF above .800 OPS the slight priority here is also the bat. 3B there's a balance between glove & bat, around a .800. Up the middle is where defense has to take priority & less focus OPS. SS & 2B have to have range to get to GBs & turn DPs. 2B's OPS is around .700, SS & CF around .650 OPS & catching around .600 OPS. If LF or 3B have an above-average glove then I'd adjust my OPS requirement lower. My standard is that all up-the-middle positions have to have an above-average glove. If they have a very good to elite glove. I'd discount OPS or a very good base-runner or clutch hitter, I'd discount more. 

Vazquez had great OPS when he was established at BOS, In His last years he caught at least 138 games (except '20, he had his best OPS .800) & still was very productive OFF/DEF. Only after leaving BOS did his OPS fall below .600 (discounting his early years) due to all of his focus was spent on knowing the pitchers & the team. I see his OPS will be closer to his career average of .673 this season. The problem with our offense isn't that Vazquez isn't doing his job, It's some of the others aren't doing theirs.

Molina knew his pitchers, he studied the opponents' hitters, base-runners & game plan. He was elite defensively, he had a catcher's heart where he loved to be on every play, he worked with his INFers to make magnificent plays that normal catchers couldn't dream of. A leader, he added chemistry & unity on the field. Vazquez isn't a Molina but he has a catcher's heart & is a good friend of Molina where I could imagine them spending many hrs. talking catching. So I don't buy that over-simplistic universal .700 OPS standard.

With Vazquez (WAR doesn't do justice), Jeffers performs well at the weaker-side tandem, we are 18th in catching. At the premium position, I'd like for us to be at least in the top 10 to be competitive. That means adding not subtracting. W/O Vazquez, that means Jeffers takes the primary duty of catching every day. History tells us that Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties for any extended amount of time. He will falter & land on the IL. In '22 we had Sanchez, he was bad but at least he had some viable MLB experience, Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper have realistically have none. All of them need all of '25 in AAA.

So with Vazquez, we have a chance to make the playoffs as is. Jeffers's OPS in '22 was .648 & his defense metrics were pretty bad, he had a .9 fWAR plus the others would put together -WAR. Looking at other teams' projected WAR for '25 that'd put us in the bottom of the barrel, so yeah that would kill any postseason hopes.why would Vasquez is on the team

[Matthew Lenz]

19 hours ago, ashbury said:

As should be the case, if the Padres are hinting that they would part with him.

The Twins aren't going to win a bidding war using any conceivable prospect capital, and Vazquez is nowhere near enough of an inducement.  I'm giving this Twins-specific trade rumor little attention.

I'm confused by your statement regarding the Twins winning a bidding war. Are you saying that because you don't think they have the prospect capital to compete with an offer or because they'd be unwilling to match the cost? If it's the former, the Twins have one of the best systems in all of baseball even after a number of graduates over the last few seasons.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

With this analytical mania, many have this philosophy, that a good MLB player has to have a .700 OPS. In reality, that's not true. Each position is very different, depending on its defensive premium. DH has to have a well-above- .700 OPS, IMO above .850 because that's their job to mash likewise the priority for 1B & RF is the bat, around .850 OPS. LF above .800 OPS the slight priority here is also the bat. 3B there's a balance between glove & bat, around a .800. Up the middle is where defense has to take priority & less focus OPS. SS & 2B have to have range to get to GBs & turn DPs. 2B's OPS is around .700, SS & CF around .650 OPS & catching around .600 OPS. If LF or 3B have an above-average glove then I'd adjust my OPS requirement lower. My standard is that all up-the-middle positions have to have an above-average glove. If they have a very good to elite glove. I'd discount OPS or a very good base-runner or clutch hitter, I'd discount more. 

Vazquez had great OPS when he was established at BOS, In His last years he caught at least 138 games (except '20, he had his best OPS .800) & still was very productive OFF/DEF. Only after leaving BOS did his OPS fall below .600 (discounting his early years) due to all of his focus was spent on knowing the pitchers & the team. I see his OPS will be closer to his career average of .673 this season. The problem with our offense isn't that Vazquez isn't doing his job, It's some of the others aren't doing theirs.

Molina knew his pitchers, he studied the opponents' hitters, base-runners & game plan. He was elite defensively, he had a catcher's heart where he loved to be on every play, he worked with his INFers to make magnificent plays that normal catchers couldn't dream of. A leader, he added chemistry & unity on the field. Vazquez isn't a Molina but he has a catcher's heart & is a good friend of Molina where I could imagine them spending many hrs. talking catching. So I don't buy that over-simplistic universal .700 OPS standard.

With Vazquez (WAR doesn't do justice), Jeffers performs well at the weaker-side tandem, we are 18th in catching. At the premium position, I'd like for us to be at least in the top 10 to be competitive. That means adding not subtracting. W/O Vazquez, that means Jeffers takes the primary duty of catching every day. History tells us that Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties for any extended amount of time. He will falter & land on the IL. In '22 we had Sanchez, he was bad but at least he had some viable MLB experience, Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper have realistically have none. All of them need all of '25 in AAA.

So with Vazquez, we have a chance to make the playoffs as is. Jeffers's OPS in '22 was .648 & his defense metrics were pretty bad, he had a .9 fWAR plus the others would put together -WAR. Looking at other teams' projected WAR for '25 that'd put us in the bottom of the barrel, so yeah that would kill any postseason hopes.

Let's start with Molina. He only had 2 seasons in his 19 year career where he hit as bad as Vazquez has the last 2 years. When he was 23 and 39. He was a premium hitting player, not catcher, player for his prime and was still putting up 100+ OPS+ numbers into his mid-30s. From 36-38 years old Molina was putting up OPS+ numbers 20 points higher than Vazquez is. His career OPS is .726. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer. Comparing him to Vazquez is quite the stretch.

Now for your OPS by position numbers:
SS- A SS that is only OPSing .650 better be out of this world in the field these days. Have you looked around major league baseball and seen what shortstops are actually hitting now? There were 10 SS to OPS over .800 last year and another at .794 (Willy Adames). That's 1/3 of the league. Dansby Swanson is considered the best fielding SS in baseball by many and he OPS'd .701 in a down year. His previous 5 seasons were all at basically .750 or higher. Jeremy Pena and Ha-Seong Kim are 2 other elite gloves at SS who OPS at least .700. A .650 OPS is way low for a SS in 2025. There were 22 teams with OPS over .650 from their SS last year. You're asking the Twins to have a bottom 25% hitting SS. 

2B- .700 is a reasonable number. There were 12 teams with OPS over .700 from their 2B last year. So .700 is a good target spot. 23 teams over .650 just as an FYI.

CF- Dalton Varsho is considered one of the best fielders at any position and his OPS was .700 last year and has only been under .700 once in his 4 full seasons. His other years were .750ish. He's never had a full season OPS+ under 84. Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier were "glove only" CFers who were also putting up mostly .700 marks for an OPS. Never 60ish OPS+ numbers except for last year for Kiermaier. 18 teams over .650 OPS from their CFers last year. 2 others at .649 and .644. So, you're targeting roughly the 33rd percentile in CF hitting with .650.

C- There were 23 catchers with at least 200 PAs last year who OPS'd at least .700. 31 were at at least .650. There were 26 teams with an OPS of .600 or better for catchers last year. 20 at .650 or better. You're targeting being one of the 5 worst hitting catcher positions in all of baseball with your mark.

If you put together the team you're describing with an up the middle 4 who OPS .600, .650, .650, and .700 you wouldn't make the playoffs. Go ask Seattle. You're asking to put the team in the bottom 1/3 of hitting at 3 different positions and average at 2B.

Having 4 guys in your lineup that have the OPS numbers you're suggesting would give you one of (if not the) worst offenses in baseball. Because your other position expectations are too high. There were only 26 guys in all of baseball to OPS .850 or higher last year with 200 PAs. You can drop it down to .800 and still not get to 2 guys per team as there were only 54 guys to do that. You're asking for 5 guys to do it so that 1 other guy can be an OK/below average contributor (2B) and 3 others can be complete non-contributors to half the game. DH- 4 teams hit that .850 mark. RF- 2 teams hit the .850 mark. 1B- 2 teams hit the .850 mark. LF- 2 teams hit the .800 mark. 3B- 1 team hit the .800 mark. 

You're asking the Twins (or your hypothetical team) to be in the top 4 for hitting at 1 position, top 2 at 3 others, and the very best hitting in the 5th. So, to make up for your below, or well below, average bats up the middle you require the Twins to have essentially a top 2-4 hitter at 5 positions. Do you feel that's realistic?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

The only reason to trade top young prospects for one year of Cease is if the Twins are poised to make a serious playoff run, and they think Cease is the missing piece. But they’re not, based on how last year went. In any case, IMO, these minor league guys should be untouchable in any trade: Jenkins, Rodriquez, Raya, Winokur, Keaschall, Prielipp, and Soto. They should be in build for the future mode, and Cease isn’t part of that with a one year contract, unless the trade pieces are for lower ranked prospects.

Honest question, isn't that what they have been doing for the last X amount of years.?  Next year (2026 season) Correa will be 31, Buxton 32, Lopez 30, Ober 30/31, Ryan 29/30  and all three pitchers will be UFA after 27.

My guess is if SWR isn't as good this year as last, and Festa/Matthews/Miller don't make the jump to Ryan/Ober, and some prospects fall off, next year will be the same excuse, 2027 is the year to do something because the Twins aren't really good enough to win the WS.

IMO the only reason people don't think the Twins are good enough to compete this year is because there are so many wild card players that haven't been given the opportunity or have been hurt. (Miranda, Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, etc...) what makes any of us think the Twins are going to reverse course on that this year?

If the Twins can get Cease without giving up any of the players that I mentioned in my previous post. they should do it, if things go well that will have 4 starting pitchers you can feel pretty comfortable pitching against anybody, if things don't go great you can spin Cease at the deadline and/or another pitcher or two and get back to the lowly Twins building for a future.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Of course the Twins are interested in Cease. But that's likely the case for a lot of teams. I still don't put much stock into the rumor. Acquiring Cease would likely necessitate one, if not more, from the following group:

Woods-Richardson, Festa, Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins.

If Cease came with a contract extension, then perhaps you consider it. But a one-year rental isn't enough to deplete your depth and prospect pool.

[Doctor Gast]

My thoughts. SD probably offered Cease to MN for Jeffers plus others. Falvey likes Jeffers too much so he countered with Vazquez & that was what was broadcasted. There is no way that SD would take that offer. they want to cut payroll. I can't see the Twins doing it either because they want cut payroll not increase it. If SD wants prospects then it'd be Vazquez + Emma or at the very least Vazquez + Festa + K Culpeper + Winokur. If SD doesn't want prospects, Vazquez + Wallner could make it happen. As I explained earlier with RiverBrian, With Vazquez as is, we have an outside chance to compete in the playoffs with a #18 catching corp. W/O Vazquez our catching corp will end up dead last, thus destroying any chance to compete in '25 even with Cease. Is it worth it? Paying dearly for a rental? Making us worse as a team in the future? I don't think so.

[TwinsDr2021]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Let's start with Molina. He only had 2 seasons in his 19 year career where he hit as bad as Vazquez has the last 2 years. When he was 23 and 39. He was a premium hitting player, not catcher, player for his prime and was still putting up 100+ OPS+ numbers into his mid-30s. From 36-38 years old Molina was putting up OPS+ numbers 20 points higher than Vazquez is. His career OPS is .726. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer. Comparing him to Vazquez is quite the stretch.

 

It is the mindset that gets people to have hot takes, like the Twins can have Hellman, Keirsey, Gasper, Eeles, Castro and Vazquer on the roster at the same time and compete for a division title. (Not yours the one you are replying to)

[bespenson]

I must be missing something. How does trading vazquez $10m salary for Cease's $13.5m solve any twins budget cap problems? and still paying some of vazquez salary? no way twins should trade good young pitching for a 1-year pitcher that would represent only a marginal upgrade...maybe.

[Matthew Lenz]

22 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Of course the Twins are interested in Cease. But that's likely the case for a lot of teams. I still don't put much stock into the rumor. Acquiring Cease would likely necessitate one, if not more, from the following group:

Woods-Richardson, Festa, Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins.

If Cease came with a contract extension, then perhaps you consider it. But a one-year rental isn't enough to deplete your depth and prospect pool.

If it was more than one from that group, that would be more expensive than he was a year ago when he was a year younger and a year more controllable. I do agree that one from that group (I would also add Matthews) would be required to get the deal done. After that it's probably Vazquez and another prospect in the 15-30 range.

[sweetmusicviola16]

16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

My thoughts. SD probably offered Cease to MN for Jeffers plus others. Falvey likes Jeffers too much so he countered with Vazquez & that was what was broadcasted. There is no way that SD would take that offer. they want to cut payroll. I can't see the Twins doing it either because they want cut payroll not increase it. If SD wants prospects then it'd be Vazquez + Emma or at the very least Vazquez + Festa + K Culpeper + Winokur. If SD doesn't want prospects, Vazquez + Wallner could make it happen. As I explained earlier with RiverBrian, With Vazquez as is, we have an outside chance to compete in the playoffs with a #18 catching corp. W/O Vazquez our catching corp will end up dead last, thus destroying any chance to compete in '25 even with Cease. Is it worth it? Paying dearly for a rental? Making us worse as a team in the future? I don't think so.

imo doctor Cease as a one year rental is worth pursuing. But no not at the price of most of the guys you listed. A similar deal to what Baltimore paid for Burnes last season would be Culpepper sent to SD. He would be our Joey Ortiz. Not as highly rated at the moment but his stock is rising instead of having leveled off. Someone like Winokur, Doncon or Corey Lewis would be our DL Hall. Actually any of these are better than the always injured Hall. Milwaukee also received a comp pick I believe. We would need to throw in someone to serve that. We also however do need salary relief from SD. From the rumors SD doesn't want Paddack back. The more it looks like this is not happening anyway. But it is fun thought to break up a nothing off season.

But we can't at this point afford to give up Jenkins, Erod or Keschell. I do think this team should take on salary and go for a more realistic add. Arraez. He would be our 1B. We would have offense at 1B with him and an adequate glove there. I could care less that his power doesn't profile. His offense does. That is our biggest need. Gabriel Gonzalez for Arraez and they take Paddack and his salary. Or pay half of Arraez salary and we can trade Paddack elsewhere.

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

My thoughts. SD probably offered Cease to MN for Jeffers plus others. Falvey likes Jeffers too much so he countered with Vazquez & that was what was broadcasted. There is no way that SD would take that offer. they want to cut payroll. I can't see the Twins doing it either because they want cut payroll not increase it. If SD wants prospects then it'd be Vazquez + Emma or at the very least Vazquez + Festa + K Culpeper + Winokur. If SD doesn't want prospects, Vazquez + Wallner could make it happen. As I explained earlier with RiverBrian, With Vazquez as is, we have an outside chance to compete in the playoffs with a #18 catching corp. W/O Vazquez our catching corp will end up dead last, thus destroying any chance to compete in '25 even with Cease. Is it worth it? Paying dearly for a rental? Making us worse as a team in the future? I don't think so.

Are you saying Vazquez's 93 games, 315 plate appearances and -.2 WAR gives the Twins a better chance to compete in the playoffs, then Cease's 33 starts, 189.33 innings, 3.47 ERA, 224 K's (People love K's) and 4.2 War?

You are making up trade scenario's up and saying they aren't worth it to push your opinion.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It is the mindset that gets people to have hot takes, like the Twins can have Hellman, Keirsey, Gasper, Eeles, Castro and Vazquer on the roster at the same time and compete for a division title. (Not yours the one you are replying to)

Don't bad mouth Eeles! I love that guy. But I'm with your point in general here.

[TopGunn#22]

Getting back on to the topic of a possible trade between the Twins and the Padres...I've read thru everyone's comments.  I've agreed whole heartedly with some, agreed in part with others, disagreed with some takes, in other words the entire gambit.  Here's my 2-cents worth, which will be similar to Matthew's OTHER article about the Twins needing to trade a LH hitting OF...Now.

The Twins have more than enough firepower to make a deal with the Padres and they should have the motivation.  The Padres are an excellent match and both teams could fulfill a LOT of what their concerns have been this off season.  For much of this off season we on TD have assumed that the primary goal of the Pohlad family has been to further cut payroll.  Then came the news of a potential sale.  Then came further news of a sale being completed much sooner than any of us had expected.

So it is MY belief that Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll are now in a somewhat fluid, different situation.  The Pohlad's have to know that whatever payroll is added to the Twins will be someone else's issue and will have little to zero effect on the final sale price of the team.

San Diego needs to cut salary yet they still want to compete with the Dodgers in the N.L. West.  After all, they have Fernado Tatis, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts.  The Twins still have the best overall talent in the A.L. Central.  Their biggest issue is that their 3 biggest star hitters, Correa, Buxton and Lewis have a bit of an injury history.  That makes their offense inconsistent because the status of 3 big bats are consistently in question.  

But the chance to add a top of the rotation SP who will make $13.75 million in 2025 when the going rate for a pitcher of his worth is $30 million should be very tempting to a FO who needs to make a blockbuster trade that would solidify their status to remain in their positions in 2026 with new ownership.  Look, if the Twins do not make the playoffs in 2025 with the talent currently on their roster what motivation do the Ishbia brothers have to keep Falvey/Zoll around??

The Twins also have a chance to move some of their payroll headaches to the Padres AND add Cease if they are aggressive and creative.  Sending Vasquez and Paddack to the Padres in a deal is a no-brainer.  The key is sending something else you can afford to be without in 2025 and beyond that has value to the Padres.  That would be Trevor Larnach.  In Matthew's other article about trading either Wallner or Larnach he suggested a couple teams.  But neither of them were the Padres.  

The Padres, after Jurickson Profar just signed with the Braves have literally NOBODY to play LF.  In fact, after Jackson merrill and Fernando Tatis they have nobody in their OF.  They NEED and would WANT Trevor Larnach.  I would give Larnach up in a deal to get Cease.  Especially if I was able to shed Vasquez and Paddack at the same time.  

I would offer Larnach (22.6 BBTV) Vasquez (-4.1) and Paddack (unknown BBTV) for Cease ($13.75 million) Luis Arraez ($14 million) and Luis Campusano ($1 million).  The Twins would be sending roughly $19 million to the Padres.  The Twins would be taking back $29 million.  All of which is only on the books for 2025.  I need help to see what the value of Cease with one year of control, Arraez with one year of control and Campusano a 26 year old catcher with one year of control would have in BBTV to see how close this deal would be.  

If I had to include a young pitcher, which may not be needed based on the Padres minor league pitching prospects I would consider SWR (unknown) or Matthews (16.0).  If they wanted a young hitter I would consider Julien (16.5) or a lower level candidate NOT named E-Rod or Keaschall.  Jenkins is off the table as well.  

I also do this deal because even with FA looming for Cease, with new ownership, we could work out an extension with Cease.  Even if the twins were to lose Cease (and that would probably happen if he has a great year and just can't resist the FA opportunity) that would mean the Twins won the trade BIG TIME and it would give Festa, Raya, Morris and any other young pitcher we had one more year of development.

How excited would YOU be for the Twins in 2025 if we opened the season with Lopez, Cease, Ryan, Ober and Festa as our rotation and Luis Arraez at the top of our order playing 1B with Jeffers splitting the catching duties with Campusano, a 26 year catcher with one full season behind the plate with the Padres under his belt?  

We would have Campusano for the year while Cartaya and Camargo have another year to develop at St. Paul as well as all those young minor league pitchers.  The Twins would not be responsible for any of the $29 million taken on with this trade after the 2025 season.  It would be up to the new ownnership and the FO to determine if they wanted Cease, Arraez and Campusano back, and at what price.

Some have said the Twins still wouldn't contend even if they added Cease.  REALLY?  Others have said "we need hitting, we already have a solid rotation."  What is the FIRST Commandment of Baseball??

"Thou shalt never have enough GOOD pitching...especially good STARTING PITCHING."  (Thus sayeth the "Baseball Gods.")  

THAT rotation would be brutal for other teams to face.  We all hope for good health with our rotation in 2025 but that kind of talent and depth could overcome a bump in the road or two.  If the lineup remained healthy this could be a very special Twins team.  If there were some injuries, that starting rotation and bullpen could win a lot of close games.

I would be pretty excited if a trade like I've described could be pulled off in the near future.  I'd like some guys who have access to BBTV to post on TD what a trade with San Diego could realistically look like if we were to acquire Cease, Arraez and Campusano and we were trading Vasquez, Paddack and Larnach.  What else would be needed?  What is SWR's BBTV?  I know Festa is at 20.0.  Julien at 16.5.  Miranda at 16.2.  Walker Jenkins at 64.  Keaschall at 23.  But I don't know what Vasquez or Paddack are.  I don't know what SWR, Brooks Lee or E-Rod or Wallner are.  What else would it take?  

We are stressing on here about the disaster our season could be if we trade our backup catcher.  In my trade, we bring back a 26 year old to split time with Jeffers, but what if San Diego won't include Profar because they want to pair him with Vasquez?  Then I make a deal without Campusano but I pivot to a deal with Milwaukee for Jeferson Quero.  Maybe offering SWR and Julien.  I'm a little skeptical of SWR in 2025.  If I have to trade him to obtain a young, major league ready catcher as part of adding Cease and Arraez I'm all for it.  Especially if that puts Festa at #5 behind a rotation of Lopez, Cease, Ryan and Ober.   

[gman]

I don't think adding Cease makes the Twins any more interesting to fans unless it comes with new ownership. A new owner may be more than willing to pay the $13.5 for Cease. At least I hope so or else the team isn't going anywhere so why bother adding Cease.

Now if SD really wants Vazquez, then let them come with the offer. If that includes Cease and the twins add something, maybe pay $5mil in salary. I can see adding  Larnach because he will probably have trouble finding playing time later this year.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Matthew Lenz said:

I'm confused by your statement regarding the Twins winning a bidding war. Are you saying that because you don't think they have the prospect capital to compete with an offer or because they'd be unwilling to match the cost? If it's the former, the Twins have one of the best systems in all of baseball even after a number of graduates over the last few seasons.

While I don't fully subscribe to your assertion, I meant the latter anyway.  Some deeper-pocketed team, that values prospects less than we have to, will raise whatever bet Falvey puts on the table.

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Getting back on to the topic of a possible trade between the Twins and the Padres...I've read thru everyone's comments.  I've agreed whole heartedly with some, agreed in part with others, disagreed with some takes, in other words the entire gambit.  Here's my 2-cents worth, which will be similar to Matthew's OTHER article about the Twins needing to trade a LH hitting OF...Now.

The Twins have more than enough firepower to make a deal with the Padres and they should have the motivation.  The Padres are an excellent match and both teams could fulfill a LOT of what their concerns have been this off season.  For much of this off season we on TD have assumed that the primary goal of the Pohlad family has been to further cut payroll.  Then came the news of a potential sale.  Then came further news of a sale being completed much sooner than any of us had expected.

So it is MY belief that Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll are now in a somewhat fluid, different situation.  The Pohlad's have to know that whatever payroll is added to the Twins will be someone else's issue and will have little to zero effect on the final sale price of the team.

San Diego needs to cut salary yet they still want to compete with the Dodgers in the N.L. West.  After all, they have Fernado Tatis, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts.  The Twins still have the best overall talent in the A.L. Central.  Their biggest issue is that their 3 biggest star hitters, Correa, Buxton and Lewis have a bit of an injury history.  That makes their offense inconsistent because the status of 3 big bats are consistently in question.  

But the chance to add a top of the rotation SP who will make $13.75 million in 2025 when the going rate for a pitcher of his worth is $30 million should be very tempting to a FO who needs to make a blockbuster trade that would solidify their status to remain in their positions in 2026 with new ownership.  Look, if the Twins do not make the playoffs in 2025 with the talent currently on their roster what motivation do the Ishbia brothers have to keep Falvey/Zoll around??

The Twins also have a chance to move some of their payroll headaches to the Padres AND add Cease if they are aggressive and creative.  Sending Vasquez and Paddack to the Padres in a deal is a no-brainer.  The key is sending something else you can afford to be without in 2025 and beyond that has value to the Padres.  That would be Trevor Larnach.  In Matthew's other article about trading either Wallner or Larnach he suggested a couple teams.  But neither of them were the Padres.  

The Padres, after Jurickson Profar just signed with the Braves have literally NOBODY to play LF.  In fact, after Jackson merrill and Fernando Tatis they have nobody in their OF.  They NEED and would WANT Trevor Larnach.  I would give Larnach up in a deal to get Cease.  Especially if I was able to shed Vasquez and Paddack at the same time.  

I would offer Larnach (22.6 BBTV) Vasquez (-4.1) and Paddack (unknown BBTV) for Cease ($13.75 million) Luis Arraez ($14 million) and Luis Campusano ($1 million).  The Twins would be sending roughly $19 million to the Padres.  The Twins would be taking back $29 million.  All of which is only on the books for 2025.  I need help to see what the value of Cease with one year of control, Arraez with one year of control and Campusano a 26 year old catcher with one year of control would have in BBTV to see how close this deal would be.  

If I had to include a young pitcher, which may not be needed based on the Padres minor league pitching prospects I would consider SWR (unknown) or Matthews (16.0).  If they wanted a young hitter I would consider Julien (16.5) or a lower level candidate NOT named E-Rod or Keaschall.  Jenkins is off the table as well.  

I also do this deal because even with FA looming for Cease, with new ownership, we could work out an extension with Cease.  Even if the twins were to lose Cease (and that would probably happen if he has a great year and just can't resist the FA opportunity) that would mean the Twins won the trade BIG TIME and it would give Festa, Raya, Morris and any other young pitcher we had one more year of development.

How excited would YOU be for the Twins in 2025 if we opened the season with Lopez, Cease, Ryan, Ober and Festa as our rotation and Luis Arraez at the top of our order playing 1B with Jeffers splitting the catching duties with Campusano, a 26 year catcher with one full season behind the plate with the Padres under his belt?  

We would have Campusano for the year while Cartaya and Camargo have another year to develop at St. Paul as well as all those young minor league pitchers.  The Twins would not be responsible for any of the $29 million taken on with this trade after the 2025 season.  It would be up to the new ownnership and the FO to determine if they wanted Cease, Arraez and Campusano back, and at what price.

Some have said the Twins still wouldn't contend even if they added Cease.  REALLY?  Others have said "we need hitting, we already have a solid rotation."  What is the FIRST Commandment of Baseball??

"Thou shalt never have enough GOOD pitching...especially good STARTING PITCHING."  (Thus sayeth the "Baseball Gods.")  

THAT rotation would be brutal for other teams to face.  We all hope for good health with our rotation in 2025 but that kind of talent and depth could overcome a bump in the road or two.  If the lineup remained healthy this could be a very special Twins team.  If there were some injuries, that starting rotation and bullpen could win a lot of close games.

I would be pretty excited if a trade like I've described could be pulled off in the near future.  I'd like some guys who have access to BBTV to post on TD what a trade with San Diego could realistically look like if we were to acquire Cease, Arraez and Campusano and we were trading Vasquez, Paddack and Larnach.  What else would be needed?  What is SWR's BBTV?  I know Festa is at 20.0.  Julien at 16.5.  Miranda at 16.2.  Walker Jenkins at 64.  Keaschall at 23.  But I don't know what Vasquez or Paddack are.  I don't know what SWR, Brooks Lee or E-Rod or Wallner are.  What else would it take?  

We are stressing on here about the disaster our season could be if we trade our backup catcher.  In my trade, we bring back a 26 year old to split time with Jeffers, but what if San Diego won't include Profar because they want to pair him with Vasquez?  Then I make a deal without Campusano but I pivot to a deal with Milwaukee for Jeferson Quero.  Maybe offering SWR and Julien.  I'm a little skeptical of SWR in 2025.  If I have to trade him to obtain a young, major league ready catcher as part of adding Cease and Arraez I'm all for it.  Especially if that puts Festa at #5 behind a rotation of Lopez, Cease, Ryan and Ober.   

I had the same thoughts about Larnach and Julien. SD does need Larnach. Twins keep Erod as they need him. SD could hope that Julien reverts back to 2023 model and if he did he's cheap and they could use him. We need Arraez back. Good calls. Cease would look amazing at Target heading the staff. New ownership would have 9 months to try to extend him. He doesn't have to be a rental for a new owner looking to make a huge splash with the fan base.

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Let's start with Molina. He only had 2 seasons in his 19 year career where he hit as bad as Vazquez has the last 2 years. When he was 23 and 39. He was a premium hitting player, not catcher, player for his prime and was still putting up 100+ OPS+ numbers into his mid-30s. From 36-38 years old Molina was putting up OPS+ numbers 20 points higher than Vazquez is. His career OPS is .726. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer. Comparing him to Vazquez is quite the stretch.

Now for your OPS by position numbers:
SS- A SS that is only OPSing .650 better be out of this world in the field these days. Have you looked around major league baseball and seen what shortstops are actually hitting now? There were 10 SS to OPS over .800 last year and another at .794 (Willy Adames). That's 1/3 of the league. Dansby Swanson is considered the best fielding SS in baseball by many and he OPS'd .701 in a down year. His previous 5 seasons were all at basically .750 or higher. Jeremy Pena and Ha-Seong Kim are 2 other elite gloves at SS who OPS at least .700. A .650 OPS is way low for a SS in 2025. There were 22 teams with OPS over .650 from their SS last year. You're asking the Twins to have a bottom 25% hitting SS. 

2B- .700 is a reasonable number. There were 12 teams with OPS over .700 from their 2B last year. So .700 is a good target spot. 23 teams over .650 just as an FYI.

CF- Dalton Varsho is considered one of the best fielders at any position and his OPS was .700 last year and has only been under .700 once in his 4 full seasons. His other years were .750ish. He's never had a full season OPS+ under 84. Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier were "glove only" CFers who were alsot putting up mostly .700 marks for an OPS. Never 60ish OPS+ numbers except for last year for Kiermaier. 18 teams over .650 OPS from their CFers last year. 2 others at .649 and .644. So, you're targeting roughly the 33rd percentile in CF hitting with .650.

C- There were 23 catchers with at least 200 PAs last year who OPS'd at least .700. 31 were at at least .650. There were 26 teams with an OPS of .600 or better for catchers last year. 20 at .650 or better. You're targeting being one of the 5 worst hitting catcher positions in all of baseball with your mark.

If you put together the team you're describing with an up the middle 4 who OPS .600, .650, .650, and .700 you wouldn't make the playoffs. Go ask Seattle. You're asking to put the team in the bottom 1/3 of hitting at 3 different positions and average at 2B.

Having 4 guys in your lineup that have the OPS numbers you're suggesting would give you one of (if not the) worst offenses in baseball. Because your other position expectations are too high. There were only 26 guys in all of baseball to OPS .850 or higher last year with 200 PAs. You can drop it down to .800 and still not get to 2 guys per team as there were only 54 guys to do that. You're asking for 5 guys to do it so that 1 other guy can be an OK/below average contributor (2B) and 3 others can be complete non-contributors to half the game. DH- 4 teams hit that .850 mark. RF- 2 teams hit the .850 mark. 1B- 2 teams hit the .850 mark. LF- 2 teams hit the .800 mark. 3B- 1 team hit the .800 mark. 

You're asking the Twins (or your hypothetical team) to be in the top 4 for hitting at 1 position, top 2 at 3 others, and the very best hitting in the 5th. So, to make up for your below, or well below, average bats up the middle you require the Twins to have essentially a top 2-4 hitter at 5 positions. Do you feel that's realistic?

I wrote my text hit & miss so I forgot to write about pitchers. Pitchers, OPS is absolutely not important, So to complete my thought. (DH), OPS is 100% important, defense 0%- (Pitching), OPS is 0% important, pitching is 100%, (1B) OPS is very important, defense not so much (catcher) fielding very important, OPS not so much & down the line.

I stated that Vazquez is no Molina but they are of the same mold. I also stated that Vazquez while settled in BOS especially towards the end had very good OPS probably better than Molina's towards the end of his stay at STL. Here is my point again, catchers like Molina & Vazquez do better when settled in one place, where they don't have to study a whole new pitching staff & system, they can focus on their hitting.

As always you miss my point, you zoom on some insignificant detail & twist it. My standard mainly serves as a guideline to prove a point of importance OPS & defense on each position. My text was not meant for members like you who are dead set on OPS as the most important standard to gauge everyone no matter what. My text is focused on members with an open mind that maybe OPS isn't all end-to-end all. That in many cases, pitching & defense is more important and that fundamentals like taking & stealing an extra base, bunting, not striking out, hit & run, & clutch hitting cannot be overlooked.

[sweetmusicviola16]

10 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wrote my text hit & miss so I forgot to write about pitchers. Pitchers, OPS is absolutely not important, So to complete my thought. (DH), OPS is 100% important, defense 0%- (Pitching), OPS is 0% important, pitching is 100%, (1B) OPS is very important, defense not so much (catcher) fielding very important, OPS not so much & down the line.

I stated that Vazquez is no Molina but they are of the same mold. I also stated that Vazquez while settled in BOS especially towards the end had very good OPS probably better than Molina's towards the end of his stay at STL. Here is my point again, catchers like Molina & Vazquez do better when settled in one place, where they don't have to study a whole new pitching staff & system, they can focus on their hitting.

As always you miss my point, you zoom on some insignificant detail & twist it. My standard mainly serves as a guideline to prove a point of importance OPS & defense on each position. My text was not meant for members like you who are dead set on OPS as the most important standard to gauge everyone no matter what. My text is focused on members with an open mind that maybe OPS isn't all end-to-end all. That in many cases, pitching & defense is more important and that fundamentals like taking & stealing an extra base, bunting, not striking out, hit & run, & clutch hitting cannot be overlooked.

OPS+. It's a stat. I look at it and use it. But it's just a stat. Not the only one. Baseball survived 100 years or more without OPS. We never had it. But we knew good ballplayers when we saw them. We knew Bench was a great player. Monson, Fisk. These guys could all hit even if we never used OPS. Jim Sundberg could field, we knew that. Tony Pena, Ernie Whitt, Lance Parrish could do decent at both. There's some names from the past. Sometimes stats are over used. Some of the guys I just mentioned would have never become very good to great at what they did and where they did it if we held them to modern day stats as the end all.

 

Get Cease and Arraez.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Let's start with Molina. He only had 2 seasons in his 19 year career where he hit as bad as Vazquez has the last 2 years. When he was 23 and 39. He was a premium hitting player, not catcher, player for his prime and was still putting up 100+ OPS+ numbers into his mid-30s. From 36-38 years old Molina was putting up OPS+ numbers 20 points higher than Vazquez is. His career OPS is .726. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer. Comparing him to Vazquez is quite the stretch.

Now for your OPS by position numbers:
SS- A SS that is only OPSing .650 better be out of this world in the field these days. Have you looked around major league baseball and seen what shortstops are actually hitting now? There were 10 SS to OPS over .800 last year and another at .794 (Willy Adames). That's 1/3 of the league. Dansby Swanson is considered the best fielding SS in baseball by many and he OPS'd .701 in a down year. His previous 5 seasons were all at basically .750 or higher. Jeremy Pena and Ha-Seong Kim are 2 other elite gloves at SS who OPS at least .700. A .650 OPS is way low for a SS in 2025. There were 22 teams with OPS over .650 from their SS last year. You're asking the Twins to have a bottom 25% hitting SS. 

2B- .700 is a reasonable number. There were 12 teams with OPS over .700 from their 2B last year. So .700 is a good target spot. 23 teams over .650 just as an FYI.

CF- Dalton Varsho is considered one of the best fielders at any position and his OPS was .700 last year and has only been under .700 once in his 4 full seasons. His other years were .750ish. He's never had a full season OPS+ under 84. Kevin Pillar and Kevin Kiermaier were "glove only" CFers who were also putting up mostly .700 marks for an OPS. Never 60ish OPS+ numbers except for last year for Kiermaier. 18 teams over .650 OPS from their CFers last year. 2 others at .649 and .644. So, you're targeting roughly the 33rd percentile in CF hitting with .650.

C- There were 23 catchers with at least 200 PAs last year who OPS'd at least .700. 31 were at at least .650. There were 26 teams with an OPS of .600 or better for catchers last year. 20 at .650 or better. You're targeting being one of the 5 worst hitting catcher positions in all of baseball with your mark.

If you put together the team you're describing with an up the middle 4 who OPS .600, .650, .650, and .700 you wouldn't make the playoffs. Go ask Seattle. You're asking to put the team in the bottom 1/3 of hitting at 3 different positions and average at 2B.

Having 4 guys in your lineup that have the OPS numbers you're suggesting would give you one of (if not the) worst offenses in baseball. Because your other position expectations are too high. There were only 26 guys in all of baseball to OPS .850 or higher last year with 200 PAs. You can drop it down to .800 and still not get to 2 guys per team as there were only 54 guys to do that. You're asking for 5 guys to do it so that 1 other guy can be an OK/below average contributor (2B) and 3 others can be complete non-contributors to half the game. DH- 4 teams hit that .850 mark. RF- 2 teams hit the .850 mark. 1B- 2 teams hit the .850 mark. LF- 2 teams hit the .800 mark. 3B- 1 team hit the .800 mark. 

You're asking the Twins (or your hypothetical team) to be in the top 4 for hitting at 1 position, top 2 at 3 others, and the very best hitting in the 5th. So, to make up for your below, or well below, average bats up the middle you require the Twins to have essentially a top 2-4 hitter at 5 positions. Do you feel that's realistic?

This is an issue that I've wondered about and can't find any real statistics to evaluate. Your information is helpful, although a little anecdotal, but a good way to think about OPS by position. Obviously you can hide a low OPS plyer who is extraordinary on the defensive side if you have a high OPS player at an unusual position. like SS or C. I think the analytics show that while Vasquez is an above average to good defender, his bat simply is far below average even for a catcher.

I don't see Vasquez as that extraordinary defensive player whose glove makes up for his bat. Having said that, I agree that none of the backup options are ready for 40-50% MLB use. I just don't see that as preventing us from trading Vasquez for value since he is replaceable by a veteran FA like McCann, Grandal or Diaz. All have about the same or better WAR as Vasquez, the difference is that they get it on the hitting side more than the glove side. I have no idea if we can construct a deal with SD to get Cease with Vasquez and prospects. I do think that if we have that opportunity and the prospect cost is reasonable, we shouldn't let our lack of depth behind Vasquez stand in the way of a deal when there are veteran options available as free agents. 

[Doctor Gast]

50 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Are you saying Vazquez's 93 games, 315 plate appearances and -.2 WAR gives the Twins a better chance to compete in the playoffs, then Cease's 33 starts, 189.33 innings, 3.47 ERA, 224 K's (People love K's) and 4.2 War?

You are making up trade scenario's up and saying they aren't worth it to push your opinion.

"As I explained earlier with RiverBrian,"  .2 

 I take it  you didn't go back to read that. So I'll answer your question. Simple answer no. The tandem of Vazquez/ Jeffers we are #18 in catching. We need to add not subtract. If you eliminate either that will extremely effect our catching corp.

For reference, Jeffers in '22 when he was called on for primary catching duties of catching every day quickly faltered & ended up on the IL, he ended up with .9 WAR. As is using Jeffers's .9 WAR & him landing on the IL, that'll put all the weight on the fringe catchers that have no right to be in the MLB, that'll produce negative WAR. Looking at projections of every team for '25 at catching that'd put MN firmly in last place. SEA who had the best rotation & catching core, didn't make it to the '24 postseason. How can you think with Cease & the worst catching corp we can even come close to compete in '25? Let me add that Cartaya has potential but needs to be progressed slowly. If rushed, you'd not only wreck his '25 but maybe even his career. 

WAR is a terrible way to evaluate a defensive catcher, wherever you got that -.2 WAR you can throw in the garbage. I can say more but I'll stop here.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wrote my text hit & miss so I forgot to write about pitchers. Pitchers, OPS is absolutely not important, So to complete my thought. (DH), OPS is 100% important, defense 0%- (Pitching), OPS is 0% important, pitching is 100%, (1B) OPS is very important, defense not so much (catcher) fielding very important, OPS not so much & down the line.

I stated that Vazquez is no Molina but they are of the same mold. I also stated that Vazquez while settled in BOS especially towards the end had very good OPS probably better than Molina's towards the end of his stay at STL. Here is my point again, catchers like Molina & Vazquez do better when settled in one place, where they don't have to study a whole new pitching staff & system, they can focus on their hitting.

As always you miss my point, you zoom on some insignificant detail & twist it. My standard mainly serves as a guideline to prove a point of importance OPS & defense on each position. My text was not meant for members like you who are dead set on OPS as the most important standard to gauge everyone no matter what. My text is focused on members with an open mind that maybe OPS isn't all end-to-end all. That in many cases, pitching & defense is more important and that fundamentals like taking & stealing an extra base, bunting, not striking out, hit & run, & clutch hitting cannot be overlooked.

Christian Vazquez has had 2 seasons of 100 or higher OPS+ numbers. And one of them was in 2020. Yadier Molina had 3 seasons over 120, including one at 137. He had 7 seasons over 100. I already pointed out the only 2 seasons even close to what Vazquez is hitting. Career OPS for Molina (over 19 seasons until he was 39 years old) is .726. Vazquez is .673 and he's going into his age 34 season. Through his age 33 season (13 MLB seasons compared to Vazquez's 10) Molina's OPS was .738. Vazquez OPS+ 81. Molina 99. Vazquez has been out of Boston for over 2 years. He's been here for 2 years. If it takes him that long to "study a whole new pitching staff & system" there's problems. Teams go through dozens of pitchers every year. They're constantly learning new pitchers. They need to be able to do it much quicker than 2 years. Molina and Vazquez are not the same mold. 1 is a first ballot Hall of Famer. It's a terrible comparison.

Do you have evidence of catchers being better once they're settled? After apparently 2 years. Martin Maldonado is a similar catcher. He was in Houston for 4 seasons and didn't suddenly get better as a hitter. You like Ben Rordvedt, but argue he figured out his hitting in year 1 with the Rays. I'd be willing to bet if you actually looked up the numbers there wouldn't be any correlation at all. But instead, catchers follow the same general hitting curve as every other position. Vazquez was reported on many times at the beginning of last year about how he went and did special training to get his bat figured out for last year. He wasn't sitting at home studying pitching charts he was out changing his swing and preparing to hit better. I'd say that directly refutes your idea that he hasn't focused on hitting since he literally said that was his focus last offseason. And he got worse.

That isn't my standard to gauge everyone no matter what. Defense matters. I've never disagreed. The disagreement is in the weight given to defense. I've never said fundamentals don't matter. Never said taking or stealing bases doesn't matter. Bunting is a bad strategy in the vast majority of situations, though. Hit and run can be useful. Clutch hitting is obviously super important but isn't a skill that's separate from simply being a good hitter (I know you don't care about stats, but there's stats that prove this point). Striking out too much is bad. We don't disagree on most those things. We disagree that you can, or should, have 3 spots in your lineup that you almost don't care about offense. We disagree that Vazquez does anything special with the pitching staff or his defense to make up for an unusable bat. Seattle is a great pitching and really good defensive team. They missed the playoffs last year, and nearly every year for 2 decades, because they can't hit. You can't throw away offense at multiple positions. Especially SS in this day and age. You're ignoring what's actually happening in baseball and what teams that win actually look like. Your defensive weights are off. And WAR overcompensates for defense, not under. It's a pretty universally held stance. Thus, Myles Straw showing WAR is a questionable stat. Because he has too much WAR because his glove gets too much weight compared to his horrid hitting. You're disagreeing with basically the entire baseball community. If there's a question about defense in WAR it's that they credit it too much.

And I didn't twist anything. If you don't want people to refute your numbers don't give numbers. You gave specific numbers for specific positions. If you didn't mean those then you shouldn't have written them. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

22 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is an issue that I've wondered about and can't find any real statistics to evaluate. Your information is helpful, although a little anecdotal, but a good way to think about OPS by position. Obviously you can hide a low OPS plyer who is extraordinary on the defensive side if you have a high OPS player at an unusual position. like SS or C. I think the analytics show that while Vasquez is an above average to good defender, his bat simply is far below average even for a catcher.

I don't see Vasquez as that extraordinary defensive player whose glove makes up for his bat. Having said that, I agree that none of the backup options are ready for 40-50% MLB use. I just don't see that as preventing us from trading Vasquez for value since he is replaceable by a veteran FA like McCann, Grandal or Diaz. All have about the same or better WAR as Vasquez, the difference is that they get it on the hitting side more than the glove side. I have no idea if we can construct a deal with SD to get Cease with Vasquez and prospects. I do think that if we have that opportunity and the prospect cost is reasonable, we shouldn't let our lack of depth behind Vasquez stand in the way of a deal when there are veteran options available as free agents. 

If we could trade Vazquez and 3.5mil for someones milb flyer and then sign Diaz/McCann for 5mil I'm all for this. Then use the 1.5 mil to sign a player who can actually help, I'm for this. It's a risk but I think a safe enough one. If we're trading Vazquez and leaning on any of our in house options this will be a disaster. I'm good with this whether there is a Cease or not even. But Cease would be an amazing get.

Get Cease and Arraez Zoll. Arraez out of your slumber.

[DJL44]

Vazquez is good but he's not a gold-glove caliber catcher like Yadier Molina. Players who can't hit are often overrated on defense. He's also getting into his mid-30s which is going to make it harder and harder to maintain his performance both at the plate and behind it.

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

With this analytical mania, many have this philosophy, that a good MLB player has to have a .700 OPS. In reality, that's not true. Each position is very different, depending on its defensive premium. DH has to have a well-above- .700 OPS, IMO above .850 because that's their job to mash likewise the priority for 1B & RF is the bat, around .850 OPS. LF above .800 OPS the slight priority here is also the bat. 3B there's a balance between glove & bat, around a .800. Up the middle is where defense has to take priority & less focus OPS. SS & 2B have to have range to get to GBs & turn DPs. 2B's OPS is around .700, SS & CF around .650 OPS & catching around .600 OPS. If LF or 3B have an above-average glove then I'd adjust my OPS requirement lower. My standard is that all up-the-middle positions have to have an above-average glove. If they have a very good to elite glove. I'd discount OPS or a very good base-runner or clutch hitter, I'd discount more. 

Vazquez had great OPS when he was established at BOS, In His last years he caught at least 138 games (except '20, he had his best OPS .800) & still was very productive OFF/DEF. Only after leaving BOS did his OPS fall below .600 (discounting his early years) due to all of his focus was spent on knowing the pitchers & the team. I see his OPS will be closer to his career average of .673 this season. The problem with our offense isn't that Vazquez isn't doing his job, It's some of the others aren't doing theirs.

Molina knew his pitchers, he studied the opponents' hitters, base-runners & game plan. He was elite defensively, he had a catcher's heart where he loved to be on every play, he worked with his INFers to make magnificent plays that normal catchers couldn't dream of. A leader, he added chemistry & unity on the field. Vazquez isn't a Molina but he has a catcher's heart & is a good friend of Molina where I could imagine them spending many hrs. talking catching. So I don't buy that over-simplistic universal .700 OPS standard.

With Vazquez (WAR doesn't do justice), Jeffers performs well at the weaker-side tandem, we are 18th in catching. At the premium position, I'd like for us to be at least in the top 10 to be competitive. That means adding not subtracting. W/O Vazquez, that means Jeffers takes the primary duty of catching every day. History tells us that Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties for any extended amount of time. He will falter & land on the IL. In '22 we had Sanchez, he was bad but at least he had some viable MLB experience, Camargo, Cartaya & Gasper have realistically have none. All of them need to spend all their time in AAA in '25.

So with Vazquez, we have a chance to make the playoffs as is. Jeffers's OPS during his primary catching duties in '22 was .648 & his defense metrics were pretty bad, he had a .9 fWAR plus the others would put together -WAR. Looking at other teams' projected WAR for '25 that'd put us in the bottom of the barrel, so yeah that would kill any postseason hopes.

I don't think Vazquez is the sole problem. There was plenty of blame to throw around and honestly... I'm not looking to throw blame anyway. It's baseball. 

Vazquez is just a problem amongst the good and the bad that dot every 26 man roster on all 30 teams. 

If he and Jeffers remain healthy... He plays 50% of the games at most. 50% at full health doesn't kill the team. Spending 30 million on catching that plays 50% of games... is what kills the team. 

If we are justifying his presence on the roster for his defensive ability. Surely there is a minor league catcher who can't hit that can frame with good pop times and blocking ability.

All those minor league catchers on all 30 teams... all those coaches working on all those catchers, working on framing, game calling, nabbing base runners, blocking baseballs in the dirt. We can't produce a defensive catcher at the minimum who also can't hit just like Vazquez can't hit?

Vazquez is not the sole problem... However, thinking that he is the key to survival... that could kill the team. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

And I didn't twist anything. If you don't want people to refute your numbers don't give numbers. You gave specific numbers for specific positions. If you didn't mean those then you shouldn't have written them. 

Maybe you you know what from the same mold means, it means the same kind. If I say Arraez is from the same mold as Carew, doesn't mean that he's a fix for HOF. Because so many people are so hung up about WAR, Molina might not make it on the 1st ballot although he's one of the all-time greats. 

I didn't say hitting wasn't important, I said hitting is super important for DH, 1B & cOFers. Hitting isn't important for pitchers it never was. A good catcher adds so much more than their hitting to highly influence a game. I'm sorry if you can't see it. AGAIN my guidelines aren't the point here, that needs to be debated. They are only guidelines that can be adjusted to show how to look at the importance of OPS in each position. 

[Doctor Gast]

AJ Preller is a great GM. He's a wheeler-dealer, someone who can actually be creative, initiate & close on essential deals which I appreciate the most in a GM. I can't see the Cease for Vazquez deal ever working out, I know many will disagree with what I'm about to suggest, I'm not texting for them but those that might be more realistic & who could appreciate a good trade. What the Twins need most is a bonafide promising young MLB-ready catcher. My suggestion is Preller put together a 3-way trade involving SD/ NYY/ CWS. Basically, SD trades Cease & Arraez to  NYY, CWS trades  Roberts to NYY & Teel to SD, and NYY gives CWS a bunch of high prospects. Then Preller approaches the Twins for a Teel for a catcher trade.  My hope is in Preller's ability to pull this off. Teel is very promising & MLB-ready and could justifiably cover as a 2nd catcher (not what Falvey has whipped up). Where CWS could hesitate to trade us Teel directly but secretly via SD they could. We can debate who that catcher should be but this trade would help us this year & for many years to come. This could be a great opportunity to use Preller's ability for our benefit because I have no faith in Falvey to pull something like this off,