What Can Recent History Tell us About Simeon Woods Richardson's Age-23 Season—and What Comes Next?

[Matt Braun]

Or: come read about a very fun group of comparable players. 

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Here’s a simple question I asked myself the other day: How could we analyze Simeon Woods Richardson’s season in the context of his age? His year was fine—133 ⅔ innings with a 4.17 ERA is non-descript, even in today’s age of suppressed starting pitcher usage—but how should we consider relative youth? Does it make his play more impressive, and if so, just how much? And, critically, to whom can we compare him historically?

The first thing I did was tab a writer with a Stathead subscription for a simple query: give me a list of pitchers in their age-23 season. (Thanks, @Cody Christie.) He narrowed it down to the Wild Card era, which felt like a good call. It’s as arbitrary a cutoff as any, but we should probably observe a modern context; the days of a guy like Bert Blyleven entering 23 with over 1,000 MLB innings already under his belt are Roman Empire levels of ancient. I then ranked the list by innings that season, discovered that Mark Buerhle threw 239 frames as a 23-year-old—they really don’t build them like that anymore—and searched for similar hurlers. 

We’re again dealing with arbitrariness here. I outlined “similar” as seasons within 10 innings of Woods Richardson's total, in which a player pitched to an ERA+ five points north or south of our subject. That felt reasonable, but I could see an argument for different parameters. This way, though, we have seven comps: Jordan Lyles, David Price, Kerry Wood, Gerrit Cole, Kris Bubic, Marcus Stroman, and Taj Bradley.

(There’s some Alanis Morisette irony at play here, considering Woods Richardson’s first franchise swap was part of the Mets acquiring Stroman. Time is a flat circle.)

Ok! That’s a fun list of names. There are two Cy Young winners, 15 All-Star selections, and Kris Bubic. (My apologies to Mr. Bubic, who makes my father roar in laughter when he hears his name.) What’s striking to me is that there’s no real bust here. Lyles is probably the worst pitcher of the bunch, but even then, he’s gobbled over 1,500 frames in an MLB career that started during Obama’s first term. You could do far worse than that. 

For our purposes, I think Bubic and Stroman are the most useful of these players. Wood, Price, and Cole were outlier power pitchers, and as much as I would like to recklessly comp Woods Richardson to them, they aren’t particularly useful subjects. Lyles pitched his age-23 season in Coors, which (again) isn't useful, and Bradley just pitched his, so there’s no future data on him to analyze.

Bubic’s relatively successful 2021 season portended a meager 2022, and he’s dealt with injury issues ever since. However, the Royals intend to stretch him out as a starter again in 2025, so his career is far from over. Stroman also ran into injury issues immediately following his breakout in 2014, tearing his ACL the next spring training, but he quickly morphed into one of the most reliable starters in the game. 

Both hurlers present a very real path for Woods Richardson. Player development isn’t linear; it’s jagged and seemingly illogical, often throwing its target way off the beaten path before eventually ushering them where they need to go. This is especially true for pitchers, who mature later than hitters. Long-term, Woods Richardson’s prospects look great, but there’s a lot of snarl and thistle that can muck up his evolution. It’s all part of a plan, hopefully. 

Now, are there any specific adjustments I can recommend? Well, I doubt that the team can squeeze any more velocity out of Woods Richardson. That he sustained a 93-MPH heater in 2024 already blew away all expectations. It's perfectly possible that he could hold onto his best stuff all the way through a season better than he did in 2024, though. He'll know what the feeling of managing effort and workload over a season is like, and he did impressively hold his velocity within games this year.

His next step will likely be figuring out how to best maximize his pitch mix. Two things stand out to me: his changeup—once a plus pitch, maybe only average now—far underperformed his batted-ball data. Upping its usage could help make him more unpredictable. Then there’s the curveball. We know now that those big overhand breakers don’t earn whiffs as much as you might expect, but they can be powerful tools to steal a strike when behind in the count. Woods Richardson allowed an xwOBA of .460 in 1-0 counts when he threw his fastball, slider, or changeup, but that number dropped all the way to .278 when he flashed the curve—which he only did 16 times, sometimes going nearly a month between 1-0 curveball usages. That number needs to go way up if he wants to improve. 

Here’s the skinny: Simeon Woods Richardson’s 2024 season was ordinary in terms of pitching seasons, but given his age, even meager success is a building block. He has experience. He’s been there, perhaps even done that. Recent history suggests that good things are on the way for the youngster, but it might take some time to realize the potential. No worries, though. He’s still just 24, after all.

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[HerbieFan]

The eyeball test tells me SWR is a #4ish starter.  But if you have a consistent #4 starter out of a him, there's certainly a lot of value in that.

[GNess]

If he performs consistently as a mid-ish rotation starter that's an excellent development for the Twins overall rotation depth. He has a reasonable chance to accomplish at least that and potentially out perform that target given his tough, competitive approach. 

[bean5302]

I have concerns about SWR. A sample size of 7 is not relevant IMHO.

The assumption is he was gassed at 115 innings at age 23 in his 7th professional season. His pitches weren't great overall, but there were flashes of his curve and changeup moving in ways that would allow them to be good weapons. It seemed like hitters adjusted quickly to his repertoire as scouting reports got out. While SWR's was initially producing good results with a 92mph velocity, he seemed to improve as the velo ticked to 94 before falling off. Unfortunately, that 92mph velocity effort which reappeared towards the end of the year got hammered.

So is SWR viable with a 92mph average heater or will he have to maintain the short peak he had in the middle of the year? Why wasn't his conditioning up to the task, and why would it be expected to improve going forward?

[DJL44]

Bubic is a lefty, not a great comp. Stroman is 5'7" tall so not a good comp physically and he's a sinker/slider groundball pitcher vs Woods-Richardson's 4-seam/changeup/curveball repertoire.

Justin Verlander throws the same pitches as Woods-Richardson (though harder and better). Domingo German also has the same pitch mix. Those are the best comps I can find after searching for 15 minutes. Let's use those as bookends. If his career is somewhere between German and Verlander the Twins should be happy.

[tony&rodney]

Woods Richardson earned a spot in the 2025 rotation. We sure hope he progresses as opposed to regresses. Perhaps the Twins are able to add a pitcher via trade (highly unlikely). I have wondered how other teams view a pitcher like Simeon considering his youth, years of control, and decent first season as an MLB starting pitcher.

[rdehring]

I always enjoy reading pieces like this as they usually bring a smile.  And that's good as there aren't a lot of those of late.

I wasn't expecting much from SWR as the Twins season began.  Turns out he did a heck of a lot better than I expected.  Don't have a clue what that means for the future, but I suspect he will be in the hunt for the #4 or #5 slot with three others, Paddack, Festa and Matthews.  Hopefully, at least three of them have very good years in 2025.  Will one of those be SWR?  

 

[chpettit19]

His velo seems to be the pretty clear key. Can he find a way to maintain something in the mid-90s? I don't think he's likely to be anything better than a #4 type starter, but, as others have said, that's a valuable piece. Being able to produce your own pitching also means being able to produce your own #4s. You can't only produce #4s, but not having to sign the Happs of the world just to fill out a rotation is useful. 

I don't know where his career goes from here, but he had a really nice year last year and kept the Twins in almost every game he pitched when they really needed him to. He was looking like his career was about over and he put in the work and is set to have a real shot at being a major leaguer for a long time. Good for him. I don't think he's a star, but most aren't. Solid major leaguer is a really nice outcome for anyone. He looks like he has every chance to be that.

[nicksaviking]

I am concerned about the velocity swings and the lack of strikeouts. Those are the two things the Twins have been really, really good at developing. I don't know that he can improve from here much.

I've heard trade scenarios for every one of the Twins other pitchers, but SWR is perhaps the one I'd look to move. He isn't as established as Lopez, Ober or Ryan and with his excellent rookie numbers he put up, he probably has more value than Festa or Matthews despite not having the same ceiling.

[Doctor Gast]

I was impressed with him in his interview with Seth. Not knowing what he had, I sensed who he is. A hungry young man with a deep desire to be the best that he can be. he won me over, Even with that speed bump the year prior I knew he'd come back. Come back he did, he shone in his time in MLB keeping us in every game he started. Pitching 147 innings with most of them in MLB in '24 was much more than the 113 innings he pitched in AAA the year before. Being stretched much more than he should have been, he didn't break although the quality of his pitches waned the last several games he pitched bringing down his stats.

Like you said he's young, he has a lot of time to hone his skills & grow. I can't tell you what his ceiling is but I can tell you that he'll be a very good asset for us & has a bright future.

[DocBauer]

My impressions of him in 2024 were that he was growing with confidence about mid season. You could even see it in his demeanor on the mound. Unfortunately, he began running out of gas the last month. A little more endurance goes a long way.

My other impression, alluded to in the OP, was that he was sometimes stuck battling hitters too long. He doesn't have to K 10 per 9 to take the next step. A couple more per game would be nice, but what's as affective is getting ahead more often and just putting guys away a little earlier, K, ground ball, pop up, it doesn't matter. 

A few less pitchers here and there let's him go longer per game, and longer for the season.

He had a solid rookie season and I think there's honest hope he notches things up a level in 2025. Pure stuff though, and potential. I like Festa better and wouldn't be surprised to see him bump SWR to the #5 spot at some time. But that would actually be a good development.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I've heard trade scenarios for every one of the Twins other pitchers, but SWR is perhaps the one I'd look to move. He isn't as established as Lopez, Ober or Ryan and with his excellent rookie numbers he put up, he probably has more value than Festa or Matthews despite not having the same ceiling.

I'm fine if the Twins roll it back with their starters. Lopez, Ryan, Ober SWR, Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Raya are a decent pile of starters before panic usage of Lewis, Adams, Culpepper, or others (Dobnak).

The value of our starters to other teams is an unknown. If a team wants to make an offer, the Twins should listen on everyone. 

Meanwhile, rolling it back with our position players put us around a .500 club. So, there is that. 

[In My La Z boy]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was impressed with him in his interview with Seth. Not knowing what he had, I sensed who he is. A hungry young man with a deep desire to be the best that he can be. he won me over, Even with that speed bump the year prior I knew he'd come back. Come back he did, he shone in his time in MLB keeping us in every game he started. Pitching 147 innings with most of them in MLB in '24 was much more than the 113 innings he pitched in AAA the year before. Being stretched much more than he should have been, he didn't break although the quality of his pitches waned the last several games he pitched bringing down his stats.

Like you said he's young, he has a lot of time to hone his skills & grow. I can't tell you what his ceiling is but I can tell you that he'll be a very good asset for us & has a bright future.

Great comment! He seems to have that intangible quality you can't put your finger on. I think "Hungry" describes it well. No telling how good someone can get if they just want it more than everyone else. I think he's one of those guys! Very high IQ player in my opinion. You want to keep those kind of players!

[TopGunn#22]

I'm of the same mind as nicksaviking.  I don't think SWR's ceiling is as high as Festa or Matthews (or even Morris) but he was a pretty solid #4/#5 last year.  With the list of teams looking for starting pitching a mile long, I think NOW is the time to trade SWR while his value has never been higher.  If we didn't have in house options with higher ceilings, Festa, Matthews, Morris...even Jax, or an outside possibility like Roki Sasaki, I wouldn't be advocating to deal SWR.  But we do, and there are teams with some interesting pieces we could get back.

Two teams I'd be talking to would be the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox.  Both of them are in the mix for Corbin Burnes but still have open rotation spots even if they land Burnes.  I'm doubtful Westburg, Cowser or Kjerstad would be available unless the trade was expanded to more than just SWR.  But the Orioles have major rotation concerns and guys like Mountcastle and O'Hearn are certainly available  who could be 1B options for the Twins.  I'd be interested in seeing what a deal for Westburg/Cowser/Kjerstand would entail.  But Mountcastle and O'Hearn have value. 

The Red Sox don't have as many interesting young players as the Orioles, but 24 year old Ceddane Rafaela has always interested me.  His OPS was an unimpressive .664 last year, but he cracked 15 HR's and had 19 SB's all while player stellar defense at SS & CF as well as 2B.  He would be the young, athletic, superior glove man at 2 key positions (especially for the Twins, with Correa and Buxton) who if he stops swinging at everything (15 walks, 151 K's) has 20 HR/20-30 SB potential.  

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Great comment! He seems to have that intangible quality you can't put your finger on. I think "Hungry" describes it well. No telling how good someone can get if they just want it more than everyone else. I think he's one of those guys! Very high IQ player in my opinion. You want to keep those kind of players!

Yeah, very high IQ is a good way to express what kind of pitcher he is. The way he trains, gets ready before the game and in-game adjustments. What impresses me about him is during the post-game interviews, it's not about him, it's about the catcher & players behind him.

[Rosterman]

His key to success is working hard. Having a gameplan, being able to adjust. Happily he can push towards 150 innings, if not more, next season.

He could also start the season in the minors if push came to shove.

So, he has to realize he is not a lock on a spot. And that he need to do the work, and listen. Otherwise, move on.

I would be tempted to offer him out as tradebait coming off this season, or if he has a halfway decent partial season next year. I would take the gamble that he might implode rather than become an ace.

But the plus is that the Twins gave him an opportunity and he did his best to keep his roster spot and put himself into consideration for the future.

[Otaknam]

SWR’s season was a success by any measure, given the bumps in his development. But unless he develops a better fastball he seems have number 4 starter as his upside, or more likely number 5.  However, the team gave up Berrios, a legit number 2- or 3+ starter, for SWR and a backup player in Martin, which isn’t a lot to show for it. At least they saved $131 million over 7 years, which they won’t spend to upgrade the current roster. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

SWR’s season was a success by any measure, given the bumps in his development. But unless he develops a better fastball he seems have number 4 starter as his upside, or more likely number 5.  However, the team gave up Berrios, a legit number 2- or 3+ starter, for SWR and a backup player in Martin, which isn’t a lot to show for it. At least they saved $131 million over 7 years, which they won’t spend to upgrade the current roster. 

They gave up 1-1/2 expensive years of Berrios for 6 years of SWR. Woods-Richardson's 2024 was better than the full season of Berrios they traded away. The Twins have already won the deal.

[old nurse]

The difference between a player called a number 1 and 4 starter is that the number 4 will not be the first pitcher starting in the playoffs. If both go injury free they will start about the same number of games..  One should not be dismissive of the number 4 starter