Should the Twins Trade One Of Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan? And If So, Which?

[Otaknam]

Trading either Ryan or Ober would verify that the Twins are not interested in competing for the playoffs, Both are solid mid rotation starters capable of winning 13-15 games on a good team, and with number 2- or 3+ Lopez give the team a good three man rotation. Add SWR as a hopefully improving number five and Festa, Matthews or one of the minor league starters, and the only thing missing is a number one starter. Even the Twins won’t screw that up by weakening the rotation with a trade. 

[chpettit19]

It's not something I'd be actively looking to do, but you should always be listening and there's a price for everything. As to which one you'd trade it's the one you can get the most for. If somebody is willing to hand you an MLB ready catcher and pre-arb middle of the order bat it's certainly something to think about long and hard.

I'd be shocked if they got much better, though. Where are all you folks seeing the possibility for more upside? Just because they debuted at 25 so they feel young doesn't mean they have more upside. They're on the backside of their prime. They're not likely candidates to improve. Bailey Ober turns 30 next season. It's more likely he starts declining than he sees any kind of real improvement. I don't think this offseason is the time to do it, but selling Ober after the 2025 season is probably the smart thing for a team in the Twins financial situation to do.

If SWR, Zebby, Festa, or someone else can establish themselves as a legit MLB starter trading Ober with 2 years of control left would bring in a really nice return. So many around here say you can win with a 130 mil payroll. Well, that's how you do it. This article is a year too soon, but this is the strategy teams in this payroll range need to follow if they want to win consistently. Joe and Bailey aren't young. They're veteran pitchers now. They're in arbitration. And once they're down to their last 2 years of control trades become a real possibility if ownership wants to swim in the shallow end of the payroll pool.

[Heiny]

Ryan and Ober are already good starting pitchers.  Whose to say they won't get even better?  I'm not seeing a possible path to getting better by trading either one.  Paddack? Ok.  Lopez? No.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Clicky McClickbait.  Other articles for the immediate future:

Why trading Buxton and Correa for prospects (while paying their salary) is a good thing
How the Twins will sign Juan Soto and Pete Alonso.
Do we need to trade Walker Jenkins now?

For the record:  I did not read this article, I only clicked on it to comment.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins finished in 4th place in the AL Central in 2024. That was pretty much where their talent placed them. If the team is to improve their position in the division they either need a humungous pile of luck or they need to make some changes.

[hitterscount]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I will just say, as always, it depends on the return. If a difference maker is coming back, you have to listen. 

The article doesn’t identify the most pressing needs of the team. Is it a first baseman, outfielder,…what. Trading from the strength of the team just to trade is terrible management… but I guess it’s the front office that landed Tyler Mahle. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

The article doesn’t identify the most pressing needs of the team. Is it a first baseman, outfielder,…what. Trading from the strength of the team just to trade is terrible management… but I guess it’s the front office that landed Tyler Mahle. 

I'd still do that trade every single time. Sometimes guys get injured, and I'm glad they added a playoff starting pitcher in season. The results didn't work out, but the plan was good.

I don't know exactly who it would be that would be coming back. But you have to listen on your players and gauge their value no?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I will just say, as always, it depends on the return. If a difference maker is coming back, you have to listen. 

Why would someone trade a better, MLB-ready pitcher with more team control for Ryan or Ober. That's what it would take to make sense. Detroit would have to call and offer Skubal for Ober.

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Why would someone trade a better, MLB-ready pitcher with more team control for Ryan or Ober. That's what it would take to make sense. Detroit would have to call and offer Skubal for Ober.

No, I don't think someone would trade a better pitcher for them. Or at least not a better one as of today.

I figured if we were to trade one of them (and I'm not saying I'm for it) it'd be for a middle of the lineup type hitter who could make a difference there.

I'm not even getting in to who that player would be. Just saying that is the kind of move I could see happen is all.

[Trov]

My answer is similar to any trade ask, if the price is right make the deal.  What the price is I do not know.  I personally would not shop either but if right deal comes along I would always listen.  Despite having several guys looking ready to jump in, we do not know how they will truly do.  Additionally, we do not know how many pitchers will be needed any given year.  Keeping depth is always important.  

However, it is important to try to maximize value of players.  Trading them at their peak knowing you will either not sign long term or they will lose value as a player you should trade them to recoup that value if you can replace them in the line up.

Cleveland showed that for years.  They would trade away top pitchers that many wondered why, only to have that pitcher drop off in production, get injured, or off the field stuff came up.  They continued to compete for division over years despite their continued trade of top pitchers, mainly because they had guys in the wings to fill in. 

[Unwinder]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd be shocked if they got much better, though. Where are all you folks seeing the possibility for more upside? Just because they debuted at 25 so they feel young doesn't mean they have more upside. They're on the backside of their prime. They're not likely candidates to improve. Bailey Ober turns 30 next season. It's more likely he starts declining than he sees any kind of real improvement. I don't think this offseason is the time to do it, but selling Ober after the 2025 season is probably the smart thing for a team in the Twins financial situation to do.

I think this is the only angle that makes a trade make any sense at all, but I still have a hard time imagining a return that makes any sense in the short term. Even though these guys could very well regress before their contracts are up, relying on them to continue contributing is still less of a gamble than expecting one of the guys coming up to replace them. I think you only make the trade if the return is good enough to plan around a worse starting rotation with less depth.

[NYCTK]

14 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It all depends on your view of the team.  If you think the team can win 95 games, the answer is trade neither.  If you think the team will win 75 games, the answer is trade both.  If you think somewhere in between, the answer is wait until the trade deadline, or wait to be blown away by the offer.

I think people are underestimating how mediocre this team is right now and how high the hill is in order to actually make them respectable considering we know the Pohlads are cheapass and don't want to invest any more in their asset. 

This team IS a 75 win team as constructed right now. And the effort to build them up to a 90 win team in one offseason with zero dollars to spend is a Herculean task. 

The fans are already lost as we saw at the end of last season, so what's the real risk in a proper rebuild phase? But we know the Twins are always half measure so we should expect them to shoot for 84 wins and be shocked that no fans are excited by the league's most mediocre franchise. 

[h2oface]

My wife’s value has never been higher. Hmmmmm And the kids…….? I know it is a crap shoot, but does my team deserve players at their supposed highest value? Or cheap uncertain hope and dreams at much lower value? 

[h2oface]

16 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This team IS a 75 win team as constructed right now. And the effort to build them up to a 90 win team in one offseason with zero dollars to spend is a Herculean task.

Yeah. Detroit was just lucky. 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I think people are underestimating how mediocre this team is right now and how high the hill is in order to actually make them respectable

This team IS a 75 win team as constructed right now.

Disagree. They won 82 games last season and they only players worth a darn leaving are Santana and Kepler. They have some young talent that underperformed last year (Lewis, Julien, Duran) and some more who could contribute in 2025 (Festa, Matthews, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Brooks Lee). They're not that far off.

[NYCTK]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Disagree. They won 82 games last season and they only players worth a darn leaving are Santana and Kepler. They have some young talent that underperformed last year (Lewis, Julien, Duran) and some more who could contribute in 2025 (Festa, Matthews, Rodriguez, Keaschall, Brooks Lee). They're not that far off.

They won 82 games in the division featuring the worst team in MLB history. Their run differential was -33 against teams that weren't the White Sox. They played like a 77 win team in those games. 

And they're losing their starting RF and 1B and are still allegedly over budget. 

They do have some players that could feasibly perform better in 2025 like you said. But they have as many that could perform worse. I'll take the under on Buxton at 100 games. I'll take the under on Wallner 0.389 BABIP but at least his likely additional playing time should make his actual value a wash. Hopefully. 

I'm just saying, this team is way closer to being a 75 win team than a 90 win team. And if you're not aiming to at least be a 90 win team, you should be more concerned with future seasons than hoping fans buy into a mediocre product. 

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

They won 82 games in the division featuring the worst team in MLB history. Their run differential was -33 against teams that weren't the White Sox. They played like a 77 win team in those games. 

Did they switch divisions this offseason? The White Sox are going to be terrible again in 2025. All they need to do is win more games than Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Did they switch divisions this offseason? The White Sox are going to be terrible again in 2025. All they need to do is win more games than Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland.

Something they failed to do last year, and they've gotten worse (so far) with fans hoping to trade away salary in hopes of signing a budget veteran like Mark Canha. 

I'd likely take the over on 75 wins, but I think I'm taking the under on 80 right now. 

[Mark G]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How about we put it in Ryan's contract that he has to go back to the Thor hair cut he had the first couple months after we traded for him.

😲

[dxpavelka]

Been a Twins fan for 50 years.  Long enough to know that IF we trade one of them, the one we trade will go on do become a better pitcher than the one we keep.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a legit article.  The only thing missing from this article is a couple of examples of what Ryan or Ober COULD bring back in a trade.  I agree with chpettit19 and tony&rodney and others who make it clear "It Always Depends on What is Coming Back."  

And teams like Cleveland and Tampa Bay have shown this kind of approach can very successful.  So while I don't advocate for trading either, but I'm not going to turn my face to the wall and throw a fit over the idea either.  

It could be debated whether the Twins are actually "IN A WINDOW" of being a contender.  With an ownership group who tanked a potentially promising 2024 by cutting payroll and then gifting the team and fan base with Trevor Richards at the deadline, and continuing to shout from the mountain top that "WE'RE CUTTING PAYROLL AGAIN, AGAIN, AGAIN..." it's fair to wonder if we are contenders.

Ryan and Ober are both good pitchers.  It's safe to say that we would be in a less competitive position for 2025 if we traded one of them.  But again, it depends on what you're getting back.  tony&rodney mentioned Ober for Jarren Duran.  I would do that trade in a heartbeat.  Duran is a very good CF who can also play either corner. 

He's a dynamite leadoff hitter who posted an 8.7 WAR season in 2024.  He's 28 years old and after being a top Red Sox prospect for a few years really put it together in 2024 after having a good 2023 season.  He led the A.L. in doubles (48) and triples (14) while cracking 21 HR's and had 34 SB's.  He would look absolutely fabulous at the top of our order and in CF.  You could shift Buxton to LF where his defense would still be outstanding but there would be less wear and tear.  

Why would Boston trade him?  They are absolutely desperate for SP and their top prospect is a CF.  They could fall back to Rafaela Ceddane to play CF in 2025 with Trevor Story playing SS.  Rather than pay $20-$30 million or more for multiple rotation pieces, Boston may view Ober or Ryan as a perfect, low cost fit.   

You could then replace Ober in the rotation with Griffin Jax.  After seeing what salaries pitchers are getting on the FA market already, does anyone think that has dampened Jax's determination to be a SP?  Heck No!  It's enflamed it.  And it's probably time to start using that pitching pipeline we've been developing anyway.  

The Twins are going to have to pay Ober eventually.  The Twins would have to pay Jarren Duran as well, so that's a wash.  Ober is 30.  Duran is 28.  I like the idea of getting a solid CF, dynamic leadoff hitter on our team.  

I for one appreciate what the staff at TD churn out on a daily basis.  That's not an easy job, but it's fun to read about baseball and what the Twins "could" or "might" do during a long, cold off season.  Rather than criticizing and spouting off about what a terrible idea everything is, put a little time and effort into considering the positives and negatives of the proposed moves and state your case with a well thought out response.  Don't just say "I didn't even read the article but..."  That's just lazy.  I don't mean to call out the specific guy who wrote that.  It's the general uproar that follows when an article like this gets posted and people type before they ponder.  

I have concerns the Twins are still in a competitive window given the strongly negative vibes our ownership has sent the fan base and I'm not sure how much confidence I have in Falvey to even pull of a trade of this magnitude.  The Twins do have some talent and could be competitive.  A lot of that depends on young talent, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, bouncing back, guys like Wallner, Miranda and Larnach continuing to improve and become more consistent and The health of Correa, Buxton and the starting rotation being able to stay healthy enough to produce like they're capable of.  But, one way or the other, it's either going to happen or it isn't.  Nothing I post on here is going to influence what the Twins eventually end up doing.  The debate to me is always fun, even if it appears to some on TD to be an absurd waste of time.  

[tony&rodney]

When the deadline deals were being discussed several years ago, I was rather pointedly opposed to acquiring Mahle because he was injured and I did not believe in him. When the trade was done I supported it in my online comments because it, at the very least, displayed an attempt to improve the team. 

There are trade suggestions I read that I disagree with now if they do not improve the team defensively. Yet, again, I'm really hoping that there is a deal of some type attempting to increase the talent on the team. No player is untouchable from their current roster. I'm only putting two prospects on my untouchable list, Jenkins and Keaschall. Somehow, Falvey & Sons need to do something.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

FWIW, the current Twins roster is competitive. The win totals could vary from 76-88 next season. I can't see the team, as is, creating much buzz at Target Field, but the future is wide open.