Minnesota Twins Option Dilemma: Jorge Alcalá

[Matthew Lenz]

The Twins have a decision to make on right-handed reliever Jorge Alcalá. While he is technically arbitration eligible, the Twins actually have a $1.5 million team option that would cost $55 thousand if they decline. Should the Twins accept or decline the team option on Alcalá? 

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Alcalá came to the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline that sent Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros. He debuted in 2019 and, despite some injury-shortened seasons, has been a mainstay in the bullpen since 2020, having accrued the fourth most innings of any Twins reliever in that time. While this isn’t an arbitration decision, I think it’s worth noting from a value perspective that MLBTR projected that Alcalá would earn $1.7 million if he went through the arbitration process in 2024. With that laid out, should the Twins tender or move on from 29-year-old Alcalá? Let's look into both sides of the argument.

Why He Should Be Tendered
Sans two appearances, Jorge Alcalá was arguably the Twins' best reliever in 2024. His 3.24 ERA is inflated due to two appearances that saw him give up just under 43% of his earned run total for the whole season. In fact, more than 44% of his appearances were clean, 1-2-3 innings and allowed zero earned runs in nearly 80% of his outings. His 98-mile-per-hour fastball has plus arm-side movement and is countered by a slider with plus glove-side movement. These two offerings accounted for 83% of his pitches and resulted in a combined .213 opponent batting average and a 31.1% whiff rate, and had above-average strikeout and whiff rates overall. In addition to limiting hard contact, he fits Target Field and the Twins' current defensive strength well as a flyball-oriented pitcher.

From a roster construction perspective, the need for reliable relievers is clear and Alcalá more than fits that need. It’s an added plus that he can be equally effective against left-handed and right-handed batters. The Twins are on the hook for $55K regardless of what they decide here, and while that’s pretty negligible, it’s just another reason not to let one of the better relievers in all of baseball walk away.

Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered
While the surface stats paint a pretty picture, underneath the hood, Alcalá carried a 4.14 FIP and a fastball that opponents teed off on to the tune of a .513 slugging percentage and six home runs. While his offerings grade out well in terms of Stuff+, a below-average walk rate and a 19th-percentile chase rate indicate a cap to his ceiling and reliance on soft zone contact to remain an effective reliever.

From a roster perspective, the Twins have plenty of right-handed relief options, many of which are arbitration-eligible. In addition to the self-imposed salary cap, the Twins have a roster crunch here where they will likely need to decide which righty arms to keep in the bullpen and which they will let walk.

What I Would Do
Accepting Alcalá’s team option is a pretty easy decision, given the production and the cost. While he is one of the Twins' more “expensive” relief decisions, he’s also one of the more productive ones alongside Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. Despite being another right-handed reliever, it also helps that he can be relied upon to effectively face left-handed batters.

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What do you think? Should Alcalá be tendered and kept, tendered and traded, or non-tendered?

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[Einheri]

I'd keep him for $1.5M.

[stringer bell]

Inconsistent, but he was worth far more than $1.5M last year.

[bean5302]

Another pretty much no brainer decision. Alcala is being brought back, especially at a highly team friendly $1.5MM option. MLBTR has Alcala slated at $1.7MM as an arbitration estimate. Declining the option is the same as non-tendering him, which would be pretty out there.

Top 10% of MLB in exit velocity, expected batting average against, xwOBA on contact, hard hits allowed, and his Stuff+ grades out at near plus levels for all 4 pitches. He'd be a great option to turn into starter if he had the durability.

He needs to locate his stuff a little better and he'd be dominant. The upside is way too high for $1.5MM.

[ashbury]

Dilemma seems like the wrong word in the headline.  It's a decision.  And the answer is yes.  If the Twins don't want him, he's got trade value even with a slight bump in salary.

[Linus]

“One of the better relievers in all of baseball”  I’ll be damned - here I was watching one of the better relievers in all of baseball and a “mainstay in the pen” and didn’t even know it. 

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, Linus said:

“One of the better relievers in all of baseball”  I’ll be damned - here I was watching one of the better relievers in all of baseball and a “mainstay in the pen” and didn’t even know it. 

With an 8 man bullpen, that's 240 relief pitchers in MLB at any given time, but of the 167 relievers with 48+ innings pitched, Jorge Alcala ranked #62 in ERA at 3.24. Puts him as an average team's 2nd best reliever. xERA ranks Alcala quite a bit higher, but his SIERA, FIP and xFIP are all less bullish. In terms of actual results, Alcala was very good.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree it's a no-brainer,  When used right he's very efficient & he needs to be in our pen

[Linus]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

With an 8 man bullpen, that's 240 relief pitchers in MLB at any given time, but of the 167 relievers with 48+ innings pitched, Jorge Alcala ranked #62 in ERA at 3.24. Puts him as an average team's 2nd best reliever. xERA ranks Alcala quite a bit higher, but his SIERA, FIP and xFIP are all less bullish. In terms of actual results, Alcala was very good.

Which means he wasn’t one of the better relievers in baseball. And he is certainly not a mainstay. I certainly want him back. I just want to read articles sans hyperbole. 

[DocBauer]

Absolutely a no brainer to bring him back at that salary. IIRC, both of the bad games mentioned were late in the season when he was probably wearing down. I know one for sure was that dreaded game 4 against Texas when we lost the potential sweep.

Simply mind boggling the way he was used for so much of the first half. He had basically not pitched for 2 years, and was suddenly throwing 2 or more innings and 30-40 pitches because "someone had to throw those innings". If ANYONE was going to have to throw extra innings, it shouldn't have been the guy with great stuff who was finally healthy and hadn't thrown more than 20 innings the past years!

When his change is working, he's been pretty solid against LH bats. He should be used 1 IP at a time. If used in that fashion, he's a legitimate 7th inning guy with some setup potential as well.

 

[DJL44]

An equivalent free agent reliever would cost around $6M a season on a multiyear contract. Non-tendering Alcala would be sufficient reason to fire Derek Falvey.

[Parfigliano]

44% of appearances clean 1-2-3 inning.  80% of appearances 0 earned runs.  $1.5 million.  He's a keeper.

[mikelink45]

Well of course we cut him - there are these wonderful FA relievers - Jackson, Staumont, Blewett, Okert, Duarte, Irvin and even Trevor Richards who will be cheaper and ...

I guess I just convinced myself to keep Alcala.

[rv78]

You answered your own question in your article.

The Twins have plenty of right-handed relief options, yet he can be relied upon to effectively face left-handed batters. 

Then being one of the right-handed relief options, he's better suited to be on the team verses one of the other right-handed relief options that aren't as effective against left-handed batters. All this for $1.5M? No Brainer!

The bigger question...... is Rocco going to pull his own head out of his rear-end and use him effectively in 1 inning roles, where he has shown to excel, like Jax and Duran?

[Otaknam]

If $1.5 million for an effective reliever with a 98 mph fastball is a deal breaker for the penurious Twins, the franchise is in a lot more trouble than we know. 

[LambchoP]

Alcala was one of our best relievers for most of the season. If 1.5 mil is a deal breaker for that type of value, what kind of pen do they expect to have? He's about as cheap as you can get a good pitcher for, he just needs to be used correctly and not left out there for 2-3 innings. He's a high leverage, max effort one inning set up man. Not a multi inning long reliever.

[Finlander]

No brainer to keep a solid leverage (not mop up) reliever at that price. Alcala could provide solid setup protection should the Twins look to either try Jax as a SP or trade away Duran. 

[Jim wyllie]

Tender him and incluse him in a trade package if beneficial 

[Parfigliano]

5 hours ago, Otaknam said:

If $1.5 million for an effective reliever with a 98 mph fastball is a deal breaker for the penurious Twins, the franchise is in a lot more trouble than we know. 

Penurious.  Nice!

[JD-TWINS]

ALCALA - Blewett - Duran - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Varland - Winder……..that’s 14 guys to start with in the Pen….,,I don’t see any real weak performers in the group. Moran is a ??? - Funderburk isn’t absolutely reliable - Topa/Stewart/Winder are all ?? regarding health ……….. that leaves 9 guys that seem to all be a pretty solid core. Definitely keep Alcala - he’s not perfect but he’s got great stuff and a very plausible for 6th/7th inning work 2 - sometimes 3 times per week…….,55-60 innings. He did drift a few times after the Texas massacre but overall I thought he had a breakout season.