Minnesota Twins Option Dilemma: Jorge Alcalá

Alcalá came to the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline that sent Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros. He debuted in 2019 and, despite some injury-shortened seasons, has been a mainstay in the bullpen since 2020, having accrued the fourth most innings of any Twins reliever in that time. While this isn’t an arbitration decision, I think it’s worth noting from a value perspective that MLBTR projected that Alcalá would earn $1.7 million if he went through the arbitration process in 2024. With that laid out, should the Twins tender or move on from 29-year-old Alcalá? Let's look into both sides of the argument.

Why He Should Be Tendered
Sans two appearances, Jorge Alcalá was arguably the Twins' best reliever in 2024. His 3.24 ERA is inflated due to two appearances that saw him give up just under 43% of his earned run total for the whole season. In fact, more than 44% of his appearances were clean, 1-2-3 innings and allowed zero earned runs in nearly 80% of his outings. His 98-mile-per-hour fastball has plus arm-side movement and is countered by a slider with plus glove-side movement. These two offerings accounted for 83% of his pitches and resulted in a combined .213 opponent batting average and a 31.1% whiff rate, and had above-average strikeout and whiff rates overall. In addition to limiting hard contact, he fits Target Field and the Twins' current defensive strength well as a flyball-oriented pitcher.

From a roster construction perspective, the need for reliable relievers is clear and Alcalá more than fits that need. It’s an added plus that he can be equally effective against left-handed and right-handed batters. The Twins are on the hook for $55K regardless of what they decide here, and while that’s pretty negligible, it’s just another reason not to let one of the better relievers in all of baseball walk away.

Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered
While the surface stats paint a pretty picture, underneath the hood, Alcalá carried a 4.14 FIP and a fastball that opponents teed off on to the tune of a .513 slugging percentage and six home runs. While his offerings grade out well in terms of Stuff+, a below-average walk rate and a 19th-percentile chase rate indicate a cap to his ceiling and reliance on soft zone contact to remain an effective reliever.

From a roster perspective, the Twins have plenty of right-handed relief options, many of which are arbitration-eligible. In addition to the self-imposed salary cap, the Twins have a roster crunch here where they will likely need to decide which righty arms to keep in the bullpen and which they will let walk.

What I Would Do
Accepting Alcalá’s team option is a pretty easy decision, given the production and the cost. While he is one of the Twins' more “expensive” relief decisions, he’s also one of the more productive ones alongside Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. Despite being another right-handed reliever, it also helps that he can be relied upon to effectively face left-handed batters.

What do you think? Should Alcalá be tendered and kept, tendered and traded, or non-tendered?