3 Lessons Learned from David Festa's Rookie Season

[Cody Christie]

Rookie pitchers can encounter speed bumps in their first taste of the big leagues. What are some of the lessons learned during David Festa’s rookie campaign?

 

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

David Festa’s 2024 season provided a glimpse into his potential as a long-term member of the Minnesota Twins' rotation. A promising arm in the minors, Festa made the leap to the big leagues with high expectations. While he showed flashes of brilliance, clear lessons were learned about his game and areas that need attention if he is to be a consistent presence in 2025.

Strikeout Potential on Display
One of the most exciting aspects of Festa’s game in his rookie season was his strikeout rate. Festa averaged 13.3 K/9 during his time at Triple-A in 2024, but there were still questions about whether or not he would be able to get swings and misses from MLB hitters. He posted a 10.8 K/9 in 64 1/3 big-league innings. He brought the type of swing-and-miss stuff that the Twins have been searching for in their rotation. 

His fastball velocity was a key weapon, sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s, and his slider and changeup flashed as legitimate out pitches. His changeup coaxed a 39.4 Whiff% while his slider had a 29.1 Whiff%. Opposing hitters often found themselves off-balance, especially when Festa was ahead in the count. His OPS when ahead in the count was .604 compared to a 1.062 OPS when the batter was ahead. 

However, his overall effectiveness was tempered by an inconsistent ability to locate his breaking pitches, leading to more extended at-bats and missed opportunities for early strikeouts. Refining his command in the strike zone will be critical if Festa hopes to take a step forward in 2025.

Struggles with the Long Ball
For all of his strikeout prowess, Festa was plagued by an alarming home run rate. He surrendered 1.3 HR/9 at both Triple-A and the MLB level, which kept him from finding sustained success over the course of the season. A significant contributor to this issue was his occasional tendency to leave his fastball over the middle of the plate when working in hitter-friendly counts. When Festa’s command faltered, hitters made him pay.

Adjustments in pitch sequencing and sharpening his offspeed pitches could help Festa mitigate his home run struggles. Developing confidence in his changeup could give him another weapon to keep hitters off his fastball. His changeup produced the lowest exit velocity (85.9) and the lowest xSLG (.332) of any of his pitches. The actual slugging percentage allowed on his changeup was over 130 points higher than his xSLG, so improving that pitch might help his overall home run total. 

The Five-Inning Wall
Perhaps Festa's biggest challenge in 2024 was his inability to pitch deep into games. Of his 14 starts, only one saw him pitch into the sixth inning. Consistently getting through five innings was a tall task, and Festa frequently ran into trouble by the time opposing hitters saw him for the third time through the order. His efficiency issues often stemmed from working deep into counts, leading to a high pitch count early in games.

To become more reliable in 2025, Festa will need to focus on improving his efficiency. Throwing more first-pitch strikes and trusting his defense behind him could help Festa cut down on his pitch count, allowing him to pitch deeper into games and giving the Twins a much-needed innings-eater. Minnesota might also trust him to pitch deeper into games since he will be in his sophomore season. 

As Festa enters 2025, the talent is evident, but there’s a clear blueprint for growth. Lowering his home run rate will be vital, and learning how to mix his pitches more effectively could prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball. If Festa can also make strides in his ability to go deeper into games, there’s no reason he can’t cement his place in the Twins’ rotation for years to come.

The Twins should feel encouraged by Festa’s potential, but his development in 2025 will hinge on improving consistency. If he can refine his command, limit the long ball, and pitch deeper into games, David Festa has the tools to be a key figure in the Twins’ future success.

What stood out from Festa’s rookie season? What is his ceiling moving forward? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Blyleven2011]

He's a starter with some promise for now , will be givin chances the next couple of seasons  to refine his game as a starter , if the results are favorable  he'll remain a starter , if not he'll be a great bullpen option ...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Potential.

A dangerous word to use for a SP for a team supposedly in the playoff mix.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Will David Festa be at Twinsfesta? 

[LambchoP]

I liked what I saw of Festa. Of all our supposed starting pitchers fighting for starts, Festa seemed like the only one ready for big league innings, other than SWR. Guys like Mathews, Morris, Raya and Lewis all need to find success in St Paul before being rushed to the big leagues. If Festa can become more efficient and get deeper into ballgames, he should be a good starter for us for years to come. If he can't, worst case scenario, he let's it fly in the pen and becomes a late inning weapon.

[laloesch]

the fifth inning wall is a problem for him.  I'm not saying it's insurmountable, but he needs to overcome that or he will be relegated to long reliever duties.  The Twins need to be more aggressive in the minors pushing more innings for the starters once they get to St. Paul. Going 6 or 7 should not be a problem for them by then. 

[DJL44]

I already like him better than Paddack for the 5th spot.

[gmwannabe]

Twins will dump Paddock's 7.5 million so it's Festa's 5th starter job to lose. I'd swap Kirilloff for Detmers and piggy back Detmers after Festa and see if we can get a lefty long reliever out of the deal.

[bean5302]

47 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Twins will dump Paddock's 7.5 million so it's Festa's 5th starter job to lose. I'd swap Kirilloff for Detmers and piggy back Detmers after Festa and see if we can get a lefty long reliever out of the deal.

Kirilloff couldn't be swapped for a Snickers bar right now, let alone a legitimate, 25 year old starting pitcher.

These "lets trade our garbage to another team for their quality stuff" is fascinating. As if the other team is run by a drooling, lobotomized, moron "Urrrhhhhhhh, you trade me bad at job no hitter always hurt man for cheap good start future man? You friend! We trade!" That's now how it works.

[DocBauer]

So Festa needs better command of his secondary pitches in order to put guys away quicker, which extends his IP ability, and will lower his HR propensity.  Got it.  Simple enough.

Absolutely not trolling here. I'm just stating...tongue in cheek a bit...that it really might be that simple for him. The velocity is there. Anlot if the time, I thought his change and slider were better than his fastball. And frankly, for a rookie making in his debut, season I thought he looked solid to good most appearances. I can see the potential.

A little more consistency and I can see a 6 IP starter with double digit K's consistently. Again, I liked what I saw. A 4th offering would be nice, and he might be working on one as we speak, but the 3 he's got look very good to me.

Of course, every young pitcher "just needs" more consistency to be really good, right?

[bean5302]

Back to Festa. A lot of his projection depends on how much you believe in his changeup. Location probably isn't going to save him in general as he's already solid there. Location+ has him at 101 where MLB average is 100, and that's a major help already.

Pitching Bot grades Festa's changeup as solid 54 on a 20-80 scouting scale, but it includes location, movement and other factors. The most important piece of Festa's changeup last year was making sure he did not throw it for a strike.

Stuff+ isolates the pitch all on the physical attributes of the pitch compared to other pitch offerings Festa has, and it grades Festa's changeup at 72 where 100 is MLB average because the changeup has lousy movement. Based on what I've seen, on a 20-80 scouting scale, that's about a "35" which is borderline MLB caliber.

Stuff+ grades Festa's fastball at 107 (50-55 grade or MLB average), and Festa's slider at 118 (55-60 grade, borderline plus)

There were 156 starters who pitched at least 70 innings last year in MLB. The #10 (top), median (mid) and 10th worst (bottom) were added to Festa's results for reference. Data from Statcast, except first pitch strike. Source Fangraphs.com
Festa's percentage of pitches in the zone was 47.5% - Top = 55.8%, Mid = 51.3%, Bottom = 46.5%
"Balls" where batters swung was 32.1% - Top = 33.1%, Mid = 28.9%, Bottom = 24.1%
"Strikes" where batters swung was 66.5% - Top = 61.5%, Mid = 66.1%, Bottom = 70.4%
Outside zone contact rate was 54.1% - Top = 47.6%, Mid = 57.6%, Bottom = 68.1%
In strike zone contact rate was 83.9% - Top = 80.8%, Mid = 86.3%, Bottom = 90.0%
First pitch strike rate was 63.9% - Top = 72.9%, Mid = 63.0%, Bottom = 57.6%

Festa's pitching profile, and how batters have reacted to it basically looks like this. Festa operates in the zone much less than most pitchers, but that has worked for him so far because batters swing (and miss) at Festa's offerings outside the zone well better than average. When Festa enters the strike zone, batters offer at his pitches at an average rate, but they still struggle to put the ball into fair territory relative to the average pitcher out there. Festa has been good with working ahead in the count right off the bat as well.

Festa probably doesn't have much room for error as he is now. With Festa's changeup having poor movement or potential growth, it'll turn into a meatball if thrown in the zone as evidenced by the fact it has negative values despite being by far his best strikeout pitch. Festa's been successful with the pitch because batters have chased it well out of the zone with the limited scouting reports so far. Festa stands to gain a legitimate plus pitch with his slider if he's able to improve his feel for it. Right now, it's not as consistent as it should be in terms of total movement.

Next year will be critical for him as it will likely determine whether or not he can hold his own as a starter or he's destined for the bullpen. If batters stop offering at Festa's changeup outside the zone, he's toast.

[FlyingFinn]

The "5th inning problem" is really the result of the Twins holding down his 2024 innings (and thus the pitch count) along with Festa being a rookie. Next year, he will throw more pitches per game as the season goes on, be allowed to work out of 5th inning jams (rather than having the 2024 Twins bullpen allowing his runners to score) and have more confidence as well.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Back to Festa. A lot of his projection depends on how much you believe in his changeup. Location probably isn't going to save him in general as he's already solid there. Location+ has him at 101 where MLB average is 100, and that's a major help already.

Pitching Bot grades Festa's changeup as solid 54 on a 20-80 scouting scale, but it includes location, movement and other factors. The most important piece of Festa's changeup last year was making sure he did not throw it for a strike.

Stuff+ isolates the pitch all on the physical attributes of the pitch compared to other pitch offerings Festa has, and it grades Festa's changeup at 72 where 100 is MLB average because the changeup has lousy movement. Based on what I've seen, on a 20-80 scouting scale, that's about a "35" which is borderline MLB caliber.

Stuff+ grades Festa's fastball at 107 (50-55 grade or MLB average), and Festa's slider at 118 (55-60 grade, borderline plus)

There were 156 starters who pitched at least 70 innings last year in MLB. The #10 (top), median (mid) and 10th worst (bottom) were added to Festa's results for reference. Data from Statcast, except first pitch strike. Source Fangraphs.com
Festa's percentage of pitches in the zone was 47.5% - Top = 55.8%, Mid = 51.3%, Bottom = 46.5%
"Balls" where batters swung was 32.1% - Top = 33.1%, Mid = 28.9%, Bottom = 24.1%
"Strikes" where batters swung was 66.5% - Top = 61.5%, Mid = 66.1%, Bottom = 70.4%
Outside zone contact rate was 54.1% - Top = 47.6%, Mid = 57.6%, Bottom = 68.1%
In strike zone contact rate was 83.9% - Top = 80.8%, Mid = 86.3%, Bottom = 90.0%
First pitch strike rate was 63.9% - Top = 72.9%, Mid = 63.0%, Bottom = 57.6%

Festa's pitching profile, and how batters have reacted to it basically looks like this. Festa operates in the zone much less than most pitchers, but that has worked for him so far because batters swing (and miss) at Festa's offerings outside the zone well better than average. When Festa enters the strike zone, batters offer at his pitches at an average rate, but they still struggle to put the ball into fair territory relative to the average pitcher out there. Festa has been good with working ahead in the count right off the bat as well.

Festa probably doesn't have much room for error as he is now. With Festa's changeup having poor movement or potential growth, it'll turn into a meatball if thrown in the zone as evidenced by the fact it has negative values despite being by far his best strikeout pitch. Festa's been successful with the pitch because batters have chased it well out of the zone with the limited scouting reports so far. Festa stands to gain a legitimate plus pitch with his slider if he's able to improve his feel for it. Right now, it's not as consistent as it should be in terms of total movement.

Next year will be critical for him as it will likely determine whether or not he can hold his own as a starter or he's destined for the bullpen. If batters stop offering at Festa's changeup outside the zone, he's toast.

So if I'm reading you correctly, the change is solid, but has room for improvement to make it a good offering to a great offering?

A 3 pitch SP can succeed...at different levels...depending how good those offerings are. I keep wondering if Festa and the Twins are working on that 4th offering that might take him to another level. Maybe I'm thinking of someone else, but I'd swear I heard Festa was looking to refine a curve as a 4th offering this offseason?

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So if I'm reading you correctly, the change is solid, but has room for improvement to make it a good offering to a great offering?

A 3 pitch SP can succeed...at different levels...depending how good those offerings are. I keep wondering if Festa and the Twins are working on that 4th offering that might take him to another level. Maybe I'm thinking of someone else, but I'd swear I heard Festa was looking to refine a curve as a 4th offering this offseason?

The changeup is a pretty bad pitch as it doesn't move, and if he throws it for strikes, it'll end up in the outfield bleachers. He needs batters to continue to chase it out of the zone where they can't barrel it up.

The slider is a good pitch and it might have a little ceiling left.

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So Festa needs better command of his secondary pitches in order to put guys away quicker, which extends his IP ability, and will lower his HR propensity.  Got it.  Simple enough.

Absolutely not trolling here. I'm just stating...tongue in cheek a bit...that it really might be that simple for him. The velocity is there. Anlot if the time, I thought his change and slider were better than his fastball. And frankly, for a rookie making in his debut, season I thought he looked solid to good most appearances. I can see the potential.

A little more consistency and I can see a 6 IP starter with double digit K's consistently. Again, I liked what I saw. A 4th offering would be nice, and he might be working on one as we speak, but the 3 he's got look very good to me.

Of course, every young pitcher "just needs" more consistency to be really good, right?

Exactly, nearly every young pitcher in baseball, if they had better command - went deeper in games - gave up less HR’s, could be a very effective rotation guy.

I like Festa. His early starts, giving up 3-5 runs in an inning were all part of the uncomfortable learning process. He may have a few big innings in ‘25 as well (see Bailey Ober) but that’s OK. His demeanor seems level and he’s confident - those are tough traits to teach.

His lack of a true “off speed” pitch is a little bit of a concern. His change-up is around 91Mph & Slider around 92Mph……..if he could throw a handful of some variation grip on his change-up or maybe a curveball…….just occasionally, it could help him with setting his other pitches for more deception.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

...His lack of a true “off speed” pitch is a little bit of a concern. His change-up is around 91Mph & Slider around 92Mph...

Fastball avg = 95
Changeup avg = 88
Slider avg = 86
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-festa-701581?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[David Maro]

What I saw was a pitcher with the same problem as SWR. Things would start out OK for 1 or 2 innings then the wheels would start to come off. Their pitch count would climb and walks would happen and runs would score. Both need to refine their pitches and command.That also include going after hitters so fewer 3-2 counts.

[bean5302]

On 10/25/2024 at 2:02 PM, David Maro said:

What I saw was a pitcher with the same problem as SWR. Things would start out OK for 1 or 2 innings then the wheels would start to come off. Their pitch count would climb and walks would happen and runs would score. Both need to refine their pitches and command.That also include going after hitters so fewer 3-2 counts.

I don't think Festa will ever be an efficient starter. He doesn't have any pitches which are truly "plus" right now in regard to movement and velocity, and he doesn't have a big mix of offerings to keep hitters off their toes so playing too much in the zone is going to get his stuff hard launched around the ballpark. He's got a borderline plus pitch in his slider, and Festa's been able to locate and sequence his pitches to get whiffs outside the zone, and thereby avoid damage.