3 Lessons Learned from David Festa's Rookie Season

Will David Festa be at Twinsfesta? 

47 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Twins will dump Paddock's 7.5 million so it's Festa's 5th starter job to lose. I'd swap Kirilloff for Detmers and piggy back Detmers after Festa and see if we can get a lefty long reliever out of the deal.

Kirilloff couldn't be swapped for a Snickers bar right now, let alone a legitimate, 25 year old starting pitcher.

These "lets trade our garbage to another team for their quality stuff" is fascinating. As if the other team is run by a drooling, lobotomized, moron "Urrrhhhhhhh, you trade me bad at job no hitter always hurt man for cheap good start future man? You friend! We trade!" That's now how it works.

Back to Festa. A lot of his projection depends on how much you believe in his changeup. Location probably isn't going to save him in general as he's already solid there. Location+ has him at 101 where MLB average is 100, and that's a major help already.

Pitching Bot grades Festa's changeup as solid 54 on a 20-80 scouting scale, but it includes location, movement and other factors. The most important piece of Festa's changeup last year was making sure he did not throw it for a strike.

Stuff+ isolates the pitch all on the physical attributes of the pitch compared to other pitch offerings Festa has, and it grades Festa's changeup at 72 where 100 is MLB average because the changeup has lousy movement. Based on what I've seen, on a 20-80 scouting scale, that's about a "35" which is borderline MLB caliber.

Stuff+ grades Festa's fastball at 107 (50-55 grade or MLB average), and Festa's slider at 118 (55-60 grade, borderline plus)

There were 156 starters who pitched at least 70 innings last year in MLB. The #10 (top), median (mid) and 10th worst (bottom) were added to Festa's results for reference. Data from Statcast, except first pitch strike. Source Fangraphs.com
Festa's percentage of pitches in the zone was 47.5% - Top = 55.8%, Mid = 51.3%, Bottom = 46.5%
"Balls" where batters swung was 32.1% - Top = 33.1%, Mid = 28.9%, Bottom = 24.1%
"Strikes" where batters swung was 66.5% - Top = 61.5%, Mid = 66.1%, Bottom = 70.4%
Outside zone contact rate was 54.1% - Top = 47.6%, Mid = 57.6%, Bottom = 68.1%
In strike zone contact rate was 83.9% - Top = 80.8%, Mid = 86.3%, Bottom = 90.0%
First pitch strike rate was 63.9% - Top = 72.9%, Mid = 63.0%, Bottom = 57.6%

Festa's pitching profile, and how batters have reacted to it basically looks like this. Festa operates in the zone much less than most pitchers, but that has worked for him so far because batters swing (and miss) at Festa's offerings outside the zone well better than average. When Festa enters the strike zone, batters offer at his pitches at an average rate, but they still struggle to put the ball into fair territory relative to the average pitcher out there. Festa has been good with working ahead in the count right off the bat as well.

Festa probably doesn't have much room for error as he is now. With Festa's changeup having poor movement or potential growth, it'll turn into a meatball if thrown in the zone as evidenced by the fact it has negative values despite being by far his best strikeout pitch. Festa's been successful with the pitch because batters have chased it well out of the zone with the limited scouting reports so far. Festa stands to gain a legitimate plus pitch with his slider if he's able to improve his feel for it. Right now, it's not as consistent as it should be in terms of total movement.

Next year will be critical for him as it will likely determine whether or not he can hold his own as a starter or he's destined for the bullpen. If batters stop offering at Festa's changeup outside the zone, he's toast.

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So if I'm reading you correctly, the change is solid, but has room for improvement to make it a good offering to a great offering?

A 3 pitch SP can succeed...at different levels...depending how good those offerings are. I keep wondering if Festa and the Twins are working on that 4th offering that might take him to another level. Maybe I'm thinking of someone else, but I'd swear I heard Festa was looking to refine a curve as a 4th offering this offseason?

The changeup is a pretty bad pitch as it doesn't move, and if he throws it for strikes, it'll end up in the outfield bleachers. He needs batters to continue to chase it out of the zone where they can't barrel it up.

The slider is a good pitch and it might have a little ceiling left.

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

...His lack of a true “off speed” pitch is a little bit of a concern. His change-up is around 91Mph & Slider around 92Mph...

Fastball avg = 95
Changeup avg = 88
Slider avg = 86
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-festa-701581?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

On 10/25/2024 at 2:02 PM, David Maro said:

What I saw was a pitcher with the same problem as SWR. Things would start out OK for 1 or 2 innings then the wheels would start to come off. Their pitch count would climb and walks would happen and runs would score. Both need to refine their pitches and command.That also include going after hitters so fewer 3-2 counts.

I don't think Festa will ever be an efficient starter. He doesn't have any pitches which are truly "plus" right now in regard to movement and velocity, and he doesn't have a big mix of offerings to keep hitters off their toes so playing too much in the zone is going to get his stuff hard launched around the ballpark. He's got a borderline plus pitch in his slider, and Festa's been able to locate and sequence his pitches to get whiffs outside the zone, and thereby avoid damage.