Offseason Handbook Preview: Should Griffin Jax Get Another Shot to Start?

[Cody Christie]

Griffin Jax was arguably the team’s most valuable pitcher during the 2024 season. So, would the Twins consider moving him and his starter’s pitch mix back to the rotation?

 

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Griffin Jax has found a niche in the Twins' bullpen, but could the team consider giving him another shot as a starter? His journey to becoming one of the league’s best relievers has been full of ups and downs. After initially being developed as a starter, Jax transitioned to the bullpen in 2022 and saw immediate success. However, with questions surrounding the pitching depth and Jax’s starting experience, it's fair to wonder if a move back to the rotation might be in the cards.

Jax made 14 starts during his rookie season in 2021, but his struggles were evident. His 6.37 ERA and elevated home run rate left much to be desired, and the Twins pivoted him to the bullpen the following year. Since that transition, he’s been one of Minnesota’s most reliable relievers, particularly in high-leverage situations, where his fastball-slider combination has played well against opposing hitters. But what would it mean for the Twins if they decided to stretch him back out as a starter?

First, we must consider the rotation landscape. Minnesota has several young arms that could factor into next year’s starting rotation, including David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Zebby Matthews. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Pablo López are locks for rotation spots, but injury concerns and development needs for the younger arms leave some room for creative thinking. With his starting experience and success as a reliever, Jax could offer the Twins a flexible option as a spot starter or even a multi-inning arm. But this move would come with risks.

One of the primary concerns is what losing Jax from the bullpen would mean. The Twins’ relief corps has leaned heavily on Jax, especially in high-leverage situations. His ability to get key outs in the late innings has been critical, particularly when closer Jhoan Duran has needed a break. If Jax moves to the rotation, the bullpen would be left with a significant hole. That’s where a comparison to Reynaldo López and Garrett Crochet becomes relevant.

Both López and Crochet have bounced between the bullpen and rotation with varying degrees of success. In 2024, the Braves moved López into a starting role after three seasons as a reliever. He flourished with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP while being selected to his first All-Star Game. Crochet was among the few bright spots on a terrible White Sox roster. In 32 starts, he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and 12.9 K/9. The key for both pitchers and possibly Jax has been finding a balance between the roles without overextending their arms.

If Jax were to make the switch back to starting, the Twins would need to ensure they don’t lose his effectiveness. There’s a reason he’s thrived in relief, and pushing him into a more extended role could risk undoing the progress he’s made. However, with a growing trend of utilizing relievers in expanded roles, Jax could offer flexibility in a swingman role, capable of throwing more innings when needed. This approach could mitigate the bullpen hit while allowing the Twins to manage their younger starters’ workloads.

Ultimately, while giving Griffin Jax another shot at starting is an intriguing idea, the Twins must carefully weigh the impact on both the rotation and bullpen. His contributions in high-leverage spots may be too valuable to sacrifice. Still, with the proper management, Jax could help the team in a multi-inning capacity without entirely leaving the bullpen.

Will the Twins move Jax back to the rotation? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Hrbeks Divot]

No. Jax is incredibly valuable to the bullpen. Rocco has and will continue to use him anywhere in the game to matchup with the opposition’s best hitters. We have plenty of young options coming up and there is no guarantee Jax would have any more success this time around as a starter. Let him continue to dominate from the bullpen!

[Doctor Wu]

He has become a very useful member of the bullpen the past two years, so I can understand the reluctance to try him as a starter. But like Duran, you keep wondering ... what if? If he feels like he can handle the role, and he certainly seems to have the desire, give him a shot. If he trips and falls, you can always move him back to the bullpen and hope he becomes another Dennis Eckersley. 

[Doctor Gast]

Good points Cody. IMO Jax is a viable option for easing back into a SP to possibly replace Paddack. But for this to happen, I'd like to see our set-up role more established. IMO Duran has done better in the closer role & should be left there. Sands has made great strides in the role but is he ready to take on the primary role? If Alcala was used properly he'd have proven himself but he was not which leaves some doubt. Stewart is great when healthy but can he be counted on? I have doubt on Topa's ability & durability to be a set-up man. Varland & Paddack wasn't used enough this season to know how they'll be in the BP.

Because there's so much uncertainty in the set-up role, I'd not take the chance of moving Jax off the position.

[rv78]

Can't recall 1 pitcher that was successful in the bullpen that the Twins moved to a starter role. I doubt they will start now.

[David Maro]

If he was going to get a chance as a SP they would of plugged him in ahead of SWR or Festa.Or after Ryan went down ahead of Zebby who they brought up from AA.He would have to change his approach and most likely be just another 3-5 inning pitcher.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Can't recall 1 pitcher that was successful in the bullpen that the Twins moved to a starter role. I doubt they will start now.

Johan Santana would like a word :)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I am all for moving Jax to a starter. Yes, he is a valuable reliever. But there is a reason that every MLB baseball team pays starting pitchers more that relievers. 

[rationalfan]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Johan Santana would like a word :)

Very different case.  Santana was used as starter and reliever back and forth until finally post-All Star Game in 2003, they let him stay in the rotation to win Cy Young awards.  Maybe they thought their strength was the rotation without him?  Maybe they were keeping his innings down?  Maybe they thought he most valuable tool was his versatility?  I like to bring this up as a reminder to people who think he wasn't great for long enough to be in the HOF, but actually he was great longer you think.

Jax was a failed starter turned one inning at a time reliever.  It would be a big switch back.  I could see why he would want to do it...a mediocre starter gets paid more than a very good set up man and even most closers (which he hasn't yet done on a regular basis).  Plus who wouldn't want the chance to be a star starting pitcher?  For the Twins though, it's a huge risk taking someone who excels in a very important role and putting him in a role he has been poor in the hope that he will be very good in the new role.  If they did it, it might be a bad sign - the rotation is good already so would they be planning for trading/letting Ryan or Ober go?  Kudos to the organization for finally showing minor league pitching coming up and producing, but I haven't seen the depth yet to be able to do what the Guardians have done in trading them away before they get to expensive and go next man up.  Let's keep Ryan and Ober, hope that SWR will follow up his nice rookie year and Festa to develop and keep Jax in the pen to hold onto the leads in the 8th-9th inning.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

33 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Johan Santana would like a word :)

Point proven succinctly. 

[jmlease1]

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: he wasn't very good as a starter in MLB, and his fastball simply didn't play up well enough. as he's added velocity and throw it less, it's done much better. It's hard to believe that he'll be able to maintain that velocity as a starter, or be able to keep throwing this volume of sweepers back in the rotation. more importantly, he's been excellent as a reliever. Why would you risk taking someone out of a role they've done well in, that the team has a real need for consistent performance at, to place them back in a role they haven't been effective at? they have starting pitching depth that's worth exploring. here's the other thing: Jax was good as a reliever in 2022 & 2023, but not so dominant that anyone was talking about him going back to starting. He was dominant in 2024, but that's no guarantee he'll be this dominant in 2025. relievers often have spikes in performance. While there's every reason to believe Jax can continue to be excellent in the bullpen, some regression would also be perfectly reasonable (and still would make him a quality reliever). but if he does regress, no one would be talking about him starting any longer.

Leave him in the bullpen. He's great there, and we need him to be great there.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 minutes ago, rationalfan said:

Very different case.  Santana was used as starter and reliever back and forth until finally post-All Star Game in 2003, they let him stay in the rotation to win Cy Young awards.  Maybe they thought their strength was the rotation without him?  Maybe they were keeping his innings down?  Maybe they thought he most valuable tool was his versatility?  I like to bring this up as a reminder to people who think he wasn't great for long enough to be in the HOF, but actually he was great longer you think.

Jax was a failed starter turned one inning at a time reliever.  It would be a big switch back.  I could see why he would want to do it...a mediocre starter gets paid more than a very good set up man and even most closers (which he hasn't yet done on a regular basis).  Plus who wouldn't want the chance to be a star starting pitcher?  For the Twins though, it's a huge risk taking someone who excels in a very important role and putting him in a role he has been poor in the hope that he will be very good in the new role.  If they did it, it might be a bad sign - the rotation is good already so would they be planning for trading/letting Ryan or Ober go?  Kudos to the organization for finally showing minor league pitching coming up and producing, but I haven't seen the depth yet to be able to do what the Guardians have done in trading them away before they get to expensive and go next man up.  Let's keep Ryan and Ober, hope that SWR will follow up his nice rookie year and Festa to develop and keep Jax in the pen to hold onto the leads in the 8th-9th inning.

Most players do not stop improving once they make the major leagues. It is a mistake to base this decision on a rookie pitcher's struggles his first time in the majors.  Jax has become an outstanding pitcher. The best on the Twins this year. I am confident he is up for the challenge.  He is a tough, healthy,  competitive, military veteran from a tough competitive family of achievers. 

[AKTwinsFan]

With the budget constraints, it's definitely a option to explore. I thought maybe with the last game(s) of the season may have been a good chance to test the waters by starting him. They were already out of contention so it would have been a good test against good hitters, while not gambling any playoff chances.

I think Louie Varland should be developed into Jax's current role. And Jax get another shot!

[LambchoP]

I don't like it. He's too valuable to our bullpen, probably our best RP. He could end up busting as a starter and then not be as good once moved back to the pen. Too risky, we have plenty of other young starters in the high minors looking for starting pitcher roles.

 

[rv78]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Johan Santana would like a word :)

Santana was NOT a "successful" reliever his first 2 seasons with the Twins, unless you call OAVs of .302 and .292 with WHIPs of 1.81 and 1.51, along with ERAs of 6.49 and 4.74 successful. In his 3rd season they started using him as a starter and it is then that he started to excel. Totally different scenarios. 

[TopGunn#22]

I expect this to be an ongoing topic on TD throughout the off season and I welcome it.  I am firmly in the camp of giving Jax a shot at the rotation if he wants it.

First off, you cannot compare Jax "the previously failed SP" to the pitcher he is now.  He's completely different.  His fastball is MUCH better.  His Sweeper/Slider has always been elite.  His change up is much better.  But most of all, his command of those pitches is much better.

Second, SP's are much more valuable than RP's just due to the amount of innings they throw.  "Leverage" changes game to game, but a SP who gives you 5 or more effective innings is something every team needs and wants.  As the video points out, Jax is poised to be much more than a "decent" SP.  He has the potential to be an All Star. 

Third,  Jax has worked his tail off to attain the level of skill he now has.  Why should be be denied the opportunity to maximize his value?  Jax will not disappoint in the rotation, and how does a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax and Festa sound?  To me, it would be the best rotation in the A.L. Central and that's saying something. 

I have zero concern that Jax will fail at this transition.  I think he will shine.  We have a problem with depending on so many rookies/2nd year guys in our rotation (Festa, SWR, Matthews).  While Jax would have to adapt to the workload and mind set of a SP I don't have any worries with him.  He's a bulldog and would add an "edge" to the rotation.  Rather than shoring up the rotation with an expensive FA (not likely with the Pohlad family but certainly an area of need) this allows the Twins to put SWR or Zebby Matthews in a trade to bring back a needed piece who would balance the current roster more effectively.

The Twins are not without options to replace Jax in the 8th inning.  Go out and get a RP with closing experience.  AJ Puk, Kirby Yates etc...these guys won't cost nearly what a FA SP would or a SP would in a trade.  Louis Varland is a potential 7th/8th inning guy.  Alcala and Sands are potential 7th/8th inning guys.  You would have to gamble on Stewart/Topa whether Jax was pitching the 8th inning anyway.  Funderburk and Moran should be healthy to begin spring training. 

Finally, Rocco has been horrid at "managing" his BP, always juggling guys around for the "high leverage" situation.  Rather than chasing "leverage situations" game by game, just define what each guy's role will be and stick to it.  Starting with Duran CLOSING.  And ONLY CLOSING. 

I understand and accept others that have an opposing opinion on this.  I Rec'd Doc Gast on his comment because even though he wouldn't do it, his reasons are valid.  Same with Jmlease1.  And Doc Gast echoes my feelings about clearly defined BP roles, especially the 8th inning set up man.  

[Linus]

Normally I would be against a move like this. In this case I am not. Jax is a completely different pitcher now than when he started previously. I don’t see the “risk” others do other than a possible increase in injury risk. If he isn’t good as a starter he can go back to the pen easily. With payroll constraints this might be the only way the Twins add a playoff caliber starter. I think it is possible that he could end up being better than Ober and Ryan. 

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

Normally I would be against a move like this. In this case I am not. Jax is a completely different pitcher now than when he started previously. I don’t see the “risk” others do other than a possible increase in injury risk. If he isn’t good as a starter he can go back to the pen easily. With payroll constraints this might be the only way the Twins add a playoff caliber starter. I think it is possible that he could end up being better than Ober and Ryan. 

Exactly. 2024 Jax is unrecognizable from 2021 Jax as far as his stuff and secondary pitches. Ever since Morneau talked about this in the last week of the season I felt like this is inevitable. Falvey and the Pohlads are salivating at the thought of a top of the rotation pitcher for $2-3 million. 

If there’s one thing the Twins do very well, it’s developing fringe prospect starters into bullpen assets. I’d move Jax to the rotation and develop another Sands and Jax for the bullpen. 

[Jeff K]

I refer my answer to the law firm of No, No & No Way!

[chpettit19]

I think the Jax to the rotation question is pretty complicated. It's not just about him, it's about the entire pitching staff. The chances of him jumping to 150+ innings next year are basically 0. Lopez and Crochet (examples used here) threw 135.2 and 146 innings each. So let's split the difference and say Jax throws 140 innings. Let's say he has 1 IL stint and misses 3 starts. 140 innings over 30 starts is still less than 5 innings a start.

So it's not just about Jax being a starter, but what the makeup of the entire staff is. Are they willing to put Paddack in the pen and give him 2 innings every time out? Would they give Varland 2 innings each time he throws? What about Sands going 2 innings some of his appearances? If they have multiple guys they're willing to deploy as 2 inning guys throughout the season this could work and I'd actually be on board with it. If not, you'd be looking at an even more complicated pitching situation than they already make it and that has disaster written all over it, if you ask me.

And you can't just have Paddack, Varland, and Sands as the 2 innings guys, but also need to have guys behind them you're ready to turn to. Whether that be AAA starters getting their feet wet or Henriquez and Blewitt types or whatever. I actually kind of like this plan. I like the idea of the young starters getting their feet wet in short stints and learning what it takes to be a major leaguer then being relied upon more and more. To me the question is how many days off you need to give a guy who throws 30+ pitches over 2 innings. How often can guys do that? If it's twice a week and you can have 2 guys who do it I think you can build a really nice pitching staff even if your starters aren't going 6 every time.

I think the Twins have a lot of talented arms. It's a situation they haven't been in in a long, long time. It's just a matter figuring out how they all fit together.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, rv78 said:

Santana was NOT a "successful" reliever his first 2 seasons with the Twins, unless you call OAVs of .302 and .292 with WHIPs of 1.81 and 1.51, along with ERAs of 6.49 and 4.74 successful. In his 3rd season they started using him as a starter and it is then that he started to excel. Totally different scenarios. 

It's obviously apples to oranges. And I wouldn't imagine Jax or any pitcher to get to the heights that Santana did (still think he is hall of fame worthy.)

Just saying that sometimes it takes time for a pitcher to "click" in their role. That's all.

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I expect this to be an ongoing topic on TD throughout the off season and I welcome it.  I am firmly in the camp of giving Jax a shot at the rotation if he wants it.

First off, you cannot compare Jax "the previously failed SP" to the pitcher he is now.  He's completely different.  His fastball is MUCH better.  His Sweeper/Slider has always been elite.  His change up is much better.  But most of all, his command of those pitches is much better.

Second, SP's are much more valuable than RP's just due to the amount of innings they throw.  "Leverage" changes game to game, but a SP who gives you 5 or more effective innings is something every team needs and wants.  As the video points out, Jax is poised to be much more than a "decent" SP.  He has the potential to be an All Star. 

Third,  Jax has worked his tail off to attain the level of skill he now has.  Why should be be denied the opportunity to maximize his value?  Jax will not disappoint in the rotation, and how does a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax and Festa sound?  To me, it would be the best rotation in the A.L. Central and that's saying something. 

I have zero concern that Jax will fail at this transition.  I think he will shine.  We have a problem with depending on so many rookies/2nd year guys in our rotation (Festa, SWR, Matthews).  While Jax would have to adapt to the workload and mind set of a SP I don't have any worries with him.  He's a bulldog and would add an "edge" to the rotation.  Rather than shoring up the rotation with an expensive FA (not likely with the Pohlad family but certainly an area of need) this allows the Twins to put SWR or Zebby Matthews in a trade to bring back a needed piece who would balance the current roster more effectively.

The Twins are not without options to replace Jax in the 8th inning.  Go out and get a RP with closing experience.  AJ Puk, Kirby Yates etc...these guys won't cost nearly what a FA SP would or a SP would in a trade.  Louis Varland is a potential 7th/8th inning guy.  Alcala and Sands are potential 7th/8th inning guys.  You would have to gamble on Stewart/Topa whether Jax was pitching the 8th inning anyway.  Funderburk and Moran should be healthy to begin spring training. 

Finally, Rocco has been horrid at "managing" his BP, always juggling guys around for the "high leverage" situation.  Rather than chasing "leverage situations" game by game, just define what each guy's role will be and stick to it.  Starting with Duran CLOSING.  And ONLY CLOSING. 

I understand and accept others that have an opposing opinion on this.  I Rec'd Doc Gast on his comment because even though he wouldn't do it, his reasons are valid.  Same with Jmlease1.  And Doc Gast echoes my feelings about clearly defined BP roles, especially the 8th inning set up man.  

I agree with you Top Gun. I'd love to give Jax an opportunity to prove himself as a SP and IMO there's a good chance he could become a darn good one. A high-leverage set-up man isn't an easy position to shove someone into if they haven't been properly prepared. You could set them up to fail which I'd like to eliminate. I'd like the Twins maximize more the high-leverage candidates from last season. If they had, I think Jax would feel better about leaving the BP. By chance he doesn't succeed as a SP he'd return to the BP with greater conviction knowing he tried.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Good points Cody. IMO Jax is a viable option for easing back into a SP to possibly replace Paddack. But for this to happen, I'd like to see our set-up role more established. IMO Duran has done better in the closer role & should be left there. Sands has made great strides in the role but is he ready to take on the primary role? If Alcala was used properly he'd have proven himself but he was not which leaves some doubt. Stewart is great when healthy but can he be counted on? I have doubt on Topa's ability & durability to be a set-up man. Varland & Paddack wasn't used enough this season to know how they'll be in the BP.

Because there's so much uncertainty in the set-up role, I'd not take the chance of moving Jax off the position.

Not personal here - tired of hearing about the plight of Jorge Alcala! Prior to coming into a game to throw ONE INNING v. Texas Rangers on the verge of a sweep, he had a sub 2.00 ERA - he was, by everyone’s standards, being used properly in single inning stints. He was flourishing!! Then HE blew up and gave up 4 runs on 9 pitches v. Rangers……..he got the 2nd out of the inning & then gave up a fifth run on another homer. He didn’t pitch well - no other words need be said. Nobody else’s fault. He then looked mentally washed for the next 3-4 weeks and then got sent down to recover.

Personally, I disagree with the author here in thinking Matthews has some spot in the rotation - potential depth guy at this point, to me. Paddack is either traded or, to me, more preferably in the Pen to make it more deep with the addition of Varland & Topa & possibly Stewart. 

Jax is the clear anchor of the Pen! I would prefer trading Duran prior to putting Jax in the rotation. I’d like them both in the Pen going forward. Jax not going max effort in short stints will diminish his effectiveness & risk his contributions to Team W’s!

Lopez - Ryan - SWR - Ober - Festa ……backed by Morris - Lewis - Matthews - Raya at AAA is an adequate rotation group, to me.

[TopGunn#22]

Again, I think this is a worthy gamble for the Twins to take that could pay BIG dividends.  chpettit19 makes a number of good points, but I would disagree with his "zero chance Jax throws 150 innings" as a SP assessment.

Check out what a couple RP's converted to SP's did from one season to the next:

Reynaldo Lopez went from 66 relief innings in 2023 to 135 SP innings in 2024.                                                Seth Lugo went from 65 relief innings in 2022 to 146 as a 2023 SP and then from 146 all the way to 207 IP in 2024.                                                                                                                                                                        Garrett Crochet went from 54 RP innings in 2021 to being injured all of 2022, to 13 innings in 2023 to 146 innings pitched in 2024.  

So just with those three examples and seeing how Jax profiles to those three guys tells me Jax could be anywhere from 125 innings to as many as 160.  

The three Twins rookie pitchers were as follows:

SWR:  Threw 134 innings in 28 starts.  An average of 4.8 innings per start.                                                    David Festa threw 64 innings and average 4.8 innings per start.  Matthews threw 38 innings averaging 4.22 innings per start.  

Let's look at the Twins "Big Three" and see how many IP they had in 2024 and what could be projected for 2025.

Lopez threw 185 innings in 2024 and could be expected to match that or reach 200 IP for 2025.            Bailey Ober threw a career high 179 innings in 2024 and he should should give the Twins 175-200 in 2025. Joe Ryan finished the season on the injured list and finished with 135 IP.  Normally I would say a healthy Ryan coming back should be good for 175 IP.  But here are Ryan's IP the last 3 years...2022 147.   2023 162.  2024  135.  Joe's history and profile say he may only be a 150 inning pitcher.

So if Jax is an effective to maybe a pretty darn good SP who throws in the neighborhood of 150 IP per season I conclude there is nothing "wrong" with that and a LOT of "right" with that.

How would going into a season with effectively TWO Joe Ryan's in your starting rotation be?  If you signed a RP like Kirby Yates or AJ Puk (not saying it has to be THEM) your entire pitching staff takes a giant step forward.  And I'm willing to take that bet and gamble on Griffin Jax.   

 

[JD-TWINS]

Thought: Castro - Duran (not signing K. Jansen) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B for Twins future…..crazy for Boston or of value? I may even add another young arm that’s behind AAA guys. Casas is 24 with power & .800 OPS in ‘24. ………….he’s a real 1B and has power to replace Santana. ………..frees up $6-7M toward another bat……..,,stated here because JAX is then our closer for future.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Exactly. 2024 Jax is unrecognizable from 2021 Jax as far as his stuff and secondary pitches. Ever since Morneau talked about this in the last week of the season I felt like this is inevitable. Falvey and the Pohlads are salivating at the thought of a top of the rotation pitcher for $2-3 million. 

If there’s one thing the Twins do very well, it’s developing fringe prospect starters into bullpen assets. I’d move Jax to the rotation and develop another Sands and Jax for the bullpen. 

here's the thing though: how much of Jax's improvement in his stuff is related to him being able to be a max-effort guy for 1-2 innings and not having to pace himself through 5-7? His sweeper in 2021 was his best pitch even then; it's gotten better but the bigger difference might be how much more often he's throwing it as a % of pitches. but the real problem he had as a starter was his fastball just wasn't up to snuff and hitters could wait on it and not chase sweepers out of the zone. He's not spinning it and faster, just throwing it harder and with better extension. that's much easier to maintain 1-2 innings at a time than 5-7. 

he'd also need his 3rd pitch (changeup, i assume) to stay quality and that's been up and down on him. In relief he can drop the changeup if he doesn't have a feel for it and it's no big deal. gets to be a problem as a starter.

but the biggest question is whether or not Jax could maintain a velocity of 95-97 mph consistently for an entire game and a full season starting. because otherwise, I don't think his fastball can compete. When it was 92-93 mph it got hit and got hit hard.

[DJL44]

I don't think there is much downside to giving him a chance in the rotation. If he struggles, move him back to the bullpen.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Third,  Jax has worked his tail off to attain the level of skill he now has.  Why should be be denied the opportunity to maximize his value?

This is a very underrated point. The Twins organization already stinks in reputation and one of the best players on the team wants the opportunity to improve the team. How does it look to other players, in the organization and out, if the Twins say no? 

How would you feel if YOUR boss just threw your input in the trash without considering it? 

If the Twins don't even give him an opportunity in ST, the organization deserves the fate of the 2024 White Sox, to be quite frank. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Again, I think this is a worthy gamble for the Twins to take that could pay BIG dividends.  chpettit19 makes a number of good points, but I would disagree with his "zero chance Jax throws 150 innings" as a SP assessment.

Check out what a couple RP's converted to SP's did from one season to the next:

Reynaldo Lopez went from 66 relief innings in 2023 to 135 SP innings in 2024.                                                Seth Lugo went from 65 relief innings in 2022 to 146 as a 2023 SP and then from 146 all the way to 207 IP in 2024.                                                                                                                                                                        Garrett Crochet went from 54 RP innings in 2021 to being injured all of 2022, to 13 innings in 2023 to 146 innings pitched in 2024.  

So just with those three examples and seeing how Jax profiles to those three guys tells me Jax could be anywhere from 125 innings to as many as 160.  

The three Twins rookie pitchers were as follows:

SWR:  Threw 134 innings in 28 starts.  An average of 4.8 innings per start.                                                    David Festa threw 64 innings and average 4.8 innings per start.  Matthews threw 38 innings averaging 4.22 innings per start.  

Let's look at the Twins "Big Three" and see how many IP they had in 2024 and what could be projected for 2025.

Lopez threw 185 innings in 2024 and could be expected to match that or reach 200 IP for 2025.            Bailey Ober threw a career high 179 innings in 2024 and he should should give the Twins 175-200 in 2025. Joe Ryan finished the season on the injured list and finished with 135 IP.  Normally I would say a healthy Ryan coming back should be good for 175 IP.  But here are Ryan's IP the last 3 years...2022 147.   2023 162.  2024  135.  Joe's history and profile say he may only be a 150 inning pitcher.

So if Jax is an effective to maybe a pretty darn good SP who throws in the neighborhood of 150 IP per season I conclude there is nothing "wrong" with that and a LOT of "right" with that.

How would going into a season with effectively TWO Joe Ryan's in your starting rotation be?  If you signed a RP like Kirby Yates or AJ Puk (not saying it has to be THEM) your entire pitching staff takes a giant step forward.  And I'm willing to take that bet and gamble on Griffin Jax.   

 

I was only referring to 2025 when talking about him throwing 150 innings. They'd never let him throw more than that next year. Beyond 2025 is a whole different discussion. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

This is a very underrated point. The Twins organization already stinks in reputation and one of the best players on the team wants the opportunity to improve the team. How does it look to other players, in the organization and out, if the Twins say no? 

How would you feel if YOUR boss just threw your input in the trash without considering it? 

If the Twins don't even give him an opportunity in ST, the organization deserves the fate of the 2024 White Sox, to be quite frank. 

I don't think the Twins organization stinks in reputation league-wide. their ownership may be viewed with some derision around the league, at least by players, for not spending on FA but otherwise the twins are in a respectable place with everybody except their own fans.

And it's not ignoring Jax's input to disagree with it. They can consider his request without having to do it. Players are notorious bad at knowing where their own limits are. If you asked a pitcher, they'd almost never think they needed to come out of a game. A hitter always thinks he can get a base knock against the next pitcher, no matter who it is. You can't expect objective opinions from them. 

I don't like it one bit when my boss ignores my input. But I also don't expect my boss to substitute my opinion for theirs all the time either, especially on major issues that they have expertise on. I expect to be consulted on areas I have expertise and on duties I'm expect to perform. I expect to have an opportunity to air my opinion and have it taken seriously. I don't expect to always get my way.