Breaking Down 2024 Twins Rookies, Part 1: Hitters Who Debuted

[Matthew Lenz]

Five different Minnesota Twins hitters made their MLB debuts in 2024. Let's look at how they looked, and what their futures with the club might look like.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Austin Martin
One of the two returning pieces from José Berríos trade, Martin made the Twins roster out of the gate in 2024 and made his debut by pinch-running in the second game of the season. He’d earn his first start on Easter Sunday, going 0-for-3 at the plate, and wouldn’t get his first hit until Apr. 9 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In all, Martin had four different stints with the Twins this season, slashing .253/.318/.352 in 257 plate appearances across 93 games. He hit one home run, drove in 16 runs, scored 41 times, and stole 7 bases, while splitting time between second base, left field, and center field.

The Good
Martin showed great plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. He was better than the league average in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, and supplemented that with plus speed and baserunning ability. He managed not to be overpowered by a big-league fastball, while being able to adjust to offspeed stuff, as he produced .308 and .386 wOBAs against those pitch types, respectively. His stat line is dampened by a rough stretch in May and a horrid month of July. Otherwise, he produced at an average-plus clip for a majority of the season. Possibly his most impressive ability was hitting with runners on base, where his numbers were better across the board as compared to his season-long stat line. On the defensive side of the ball, he graded out as having a plus arm in the outfield, showing the ability to hold runners from advancing to extra bases.

The Bad
Martin will need to improve his ability to hit breaking balls, as he saw a decline in production against those pitch types. While his discipline and contact ability are pluses, his quality of contact was not a strength. He only barreled up two balls across 188 batted-ball events. This isn’t surprising, as power has never been part of his game, but that small of an output (.099 ISO) is going to limit his production and where you can put him in the lineup. While there is value in the ability (and willingness) to play multiple positions, Martin graded out as a poor defender at each of the positions he played, especially in the outfield.

The Outlook
A deeper dive into Martin’s season might be required to get a true look at where he excels and where he struggles. His monthly splits are wild, ranging from a 154 wRC+ in June across 32 at-bats all the way down to a -7 wRC+ across 30 at-bats in July. Obviously, those samples are all small enough to defy analysis, but they also make that analysis more important to perform, as best we can. Martin showed that he can be a solid but unspectacular contributor at the big-league level, but at this point, his lack of power and ability to play defense make me wonder if he is more of a utility depth piece than a fixture in the Twins lineup over the long term. At just 25 years old, Martin has time for more development and growth in his game, but I think he plays a similar role in 2025.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Brooks Lee
The eighth overall pick from the 2022 Draft debuted on Jul. 3, going 2-for-4 with an RBI and a strikeout. He’d go on to earn 175 plate appearances over 47 games, slashing .216/.263./.321 with nine runs scored, three home runs, 27 RBIs, and three stolen bases. The versatile switch-hitter played a mix of second base, third base, and shortstop, grading out as an above-average fielder at third and below average at the two other spots, per FanGraphs's UZR/150 metric.

The Good
Lee’s ascension through the Twins farm system was impressive, and his dominance at Triple-A St. Paul earned him a regular spot on the big-league roster when injuries created an opening. He has good bat control supported by solid whiff and strikeout rates, plus the ability to hit to all fields and square up the baseball. Albeit in a small sample, Lee did his best work against changeups and cutters, suggesting he's not restricted to sitting on heaters. More impressively, especially given his rookie status, Lee was one of the Twins' best hitters with a man in scoring position, with a .722 OPS. He produced more walks than strikeouts in those situations.

The Bad
His approach at the plate isn’t “bad,” perhaps, but given his below-average walk rate and above-average chase rate (swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone), he could benefit from being more selective at the plate. Moreover, his exit velocity and launch angles aren’t ideal, limiting his power. A slight change in approach could help in those numbers. In his first stint at the big-league level, Lee struggled to produce against four-seamers and sinkers, sporting .470 and .377 OPSes, respectively, while also having trouble connecting with sliders.

The Outlook
The team still hopes Lee is going to be a fixture in the lineup for years to come, and based on what we saw in a limited sample, he may be best used at third base. We know Royce Lewis can play there, and prefers to play there over second base, but with his injury history, he may be better off at the keystone instead of the hot corner. As seen this year, Lee is likely going to be the “next man up” if (or more probably, when) Carlos Correa misses time due to injury.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

DaShawn Keirsey
Keirsey only had 12 plate appearances over five games played in 2024, so there isn't a ton to glean from such a small sample. In those 12 plate appearances, he got his first major-league hit, struck out once, and got plunked once.

The Outlook
Keirsey was not protected from last year's Rule 5 Draft, but wasn't selected, either. No team believed him a ready big-leaguer for 2024. He responded with a fantastic season for the Saints, setting the team's single-season record for hits by slashing .300/.368/.476 with 14 home runs and 36 stolen bases and boasting solid walk and strikeout rates.

He is a phenomenal defensive center fielder, and it may be as soon as next year that we see Byron Buxton start transitioning into a near full-time DH, which would open the door for Keirsey to take over the middle of the Twins outfield for years to come.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Michael Helman
Like Keirsey, Helman wasn't protected from the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but went unselected, leaving him in the organization. He responded with a .271/.350/.487 slash line in Triple A, earning his spot in the big leagues when rosters expanded on Sept. 1. He earned his first hit in his MLB debut, and finished the season going 3-for-9 with two doubles, two runs scored, and three strikeouts.

The Outlook
Projecting Helman’s outlook for the Twins is tough. He's been a solid minor-league utility player over six seasons, but there's a reason he went unprotected last December and he took so long to reach the big leagues. Realistically, he’s nothing more than a Quadruple-A player who will be a good depth piece behind the depth, as long as he’s in the organization.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Jair Camargo
Camargo’s road to the big leagues has been even longer than Helman’s, but he’s only 25 years old after being signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 International Free Agency. Since being included in the Brusdar Graterol-for-Kenta Maeda trade, Camargo has done well in the lower levels of the organization, but has struggled in the upper levels--including a .212/.290/.403 slash line for the Saints in 2024. Being a catcher will take you far, though. He made his MLB debut on Apr. 16, drawing a walk in his first at-bat, but is still in search of his first big-league hit after going 0-fer in six at-bats.

The Outlook
I think Camargo’s outlook is just slightly more promising than Helman’s, due to him being a catcher and the Twins' organizational depth at the position.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

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Where do you think Lee lands in the lineup next year? Which of Martin, Helman, Keirsey, and Camargo can carve out valuable bench roles? Speak up in the comments.

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[Mike Sixel]

I'm not worried about Lee long term. The others? I don't get what happened to Martin as a "get on base" kind of player, and this article doesn't even touch on his awful defense.....

I don't think the Twins think the others have any future. 

[DJL44]

I don't want any of these guys on the opening day roster next season. They're fine for minor league depth but none of them has really earned a spot.

[FlyingFinn]

I've heard Lee say in interviews that he's batting to hit the first pitch that is hittable. This approach has to change because MLB pitchers are fooling him into thinking most pitches are strikes. He will be good in the long run IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not worried about Lee long term. The others? I don't get what happened to Martin as a "get on base" kind of player, and this article doesn't even touch on his awful defense.....

I don't think the Twins think the others have any future. 

Camargo is not the answer unless absolutely unavoidable!

Helman is not going to make it past St. Paul without serious rash of injuries above him.

I think I would protect Kiersey as at least defensive insurance in CF. I could see him starting 30 games or more in ‘25 for the Big Club.

Lee - to me - major disappointment. He grounded out weakly to 2B more than Jeffers popped out & that’s hard to do in only 40 something games!! 3 HR is not an issue - hardly any well struck line drives is very worrisome!

Martin will be taking Margot’s spot as the RH bat as a platoon. He’s gotta WORK on stealing bases to bring value & help offset his mediocre defense.

[TwinsDr2021]

Why is there a ZIPS for 2024, didn't that season just happen?

Nobody on this list except Lee has a chance to be a future piece of the Twins and if they are things will have gone wrong again. (Maybe Camargo because he isn't crazy old for a catcher)

You can't continue to bring up rookies at these guys ages (minus Lee) and think they are anything more than bit pieces.

If there next round of prospects (ERod, Jenkings, Keaschall, Culpepper) aren't up sooner than later, they will just be next group of mid 20 guys that nobody really knows what kind of player they really are.

[bean5302]

None of these guys project as somebody worthy of regular playing time in the models right now.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Thanks for doing this analysis. It kind of meshes with my thinking after watching these guys, with one exception. Lee has a chance to be a quality MLB starter if he can learn to be more selective. He reminds of Larnach before this year where he would let a hittable pitch go by and then panic into flailing away at pitches outside the zone. He got over that hump this year and I think will be quality hitter going forward, at least against RH pitching. I think the ZIPS projections are low for Lee, particularly on the SLG side. I think he can be a solid .750 OPS guy or better within a couple of years. 

I agree that Martin is what he is, a contact hitter with no power. He could be a 4th/5th OF type if he improves his fielding. I hope he's playing winter ball in the OF every day. Helman is a second UTL guy at best and more of a AAAA player. Camargo may develop into a backup C that hits .225 with 10-12 HRS, but probably not much more than that. 

The exception to me may be Keirsey. I think he can be more than a .630 - .650 OPS guy, much more. I would like to see the Twins keep him as the backup CF next year because of his near elite defense. Let's give him 300-400 ABs before writing him off.  I think he might be able to generate an OPS much closer to .700-.725 with a .330 plus OBP,  which makes him a playable CF with his defense and speed. I'd much rather do that than play Martin or Castro in CF or go out and sign a low end backup CF. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Martin will be taking Margot’s spot as the RH bat as a platoon. He’s gotta WORK on stealing bases to bring value & help offset his mediocre defense.

I wish Martin's defense was mediocre. He was terrible. He needs a lot of work on his defense. If he can't get better defensively, he's going to wash out of MLB.

51 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The exception to me may be Keirsey. I think he can be more than a .630 - .650 OPS guy, much more. I would like to see the Twins keep him as the backup CF next year because of his near elite defense. Let's give him 300-400 ABs before writing him off.  I think he might be able to generate an OPS much closer to .700-.725 with a .330 plus OBP,  which makes him a playable CF with his defense and speed. I'd much rather do that than play Martin or Castro in CF or go out and sign a low end backup CF. 

I don't think Keirsey has the speed or arm strength to be elite on defense. He's certainly better than you would expect given his tools. Good person to stash in AAA and use when Buxton goes on the IL.

[mikelink45]

I keep Keirsey and Lee. I see McCusker getting a chance 1B or DH and I keep wondering if there isn't another catcher in the system who is going to pass.Camargo.  

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Lee - to me - major disappointment.

I agree, I had higher hopes for him, especially after that outrageously hot first week. I'm just hoping he learns and adapts and improves. It would be a shame for him to turn into the next coming of David McCarty.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

None of these guys look like they are going to be a major piece of the puzzle next year at the major league level, but some may contribute on the margins.  I hope I’m wrong (or that they’re not needed at all!).   Austin Martin appears to be an OK platoon bat with no power that is worth having around to pinch run and play a utility role (if you don’t care much about defense).  Keirsay is certainly useful to stash at AAA for CF insurance (which will undoubtedly be needed).  Hellman, on paper, could be useful due to his positional flexibility, but I don’t think he’s really a major leaguer at this point.  Camargo probably isn’t a starting catcher, but there are certainly worse guys playing backup catcher in the league.  

This brings me to Brooks Lee.  His stats were extremely underwhelming and while he has at least a little power, wasn’t strong at the plate.  Overall he’s no better than Julien or Martin.  Defensively, he plays a solid third and can back up shortstop (which is very useful potentially), but I don’t think he can be the super utility guy that Castro has become (nor do the Twins want him for that I believe).  However, if he weren’t a highly touted prospect, we would all be writing him off right now.  Somebody referenced David McCarty earlier.  Sadly, that is possible.  It has always seemed like Lee didn’t have a super high ceiling, but we’ve taken solace in the fact that his floor seemed to be very high.  Right now that floor looks pretty low.  I’m not writing Lee off yet, but it’s time to play if he’s really going to be a part of the future.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

None of these guys look like they are going to be a major piece of the puzzle next year at the major league level, but some may contribute on the margins.  I hope I’m wrong (or that they’re not needed at all!).   Austin Martin appears to be an OK platoon bat with no power that is worth having around to pinch run and play a utility role (if you don’t care much about defense).  Keirsay is certainly useful to stash at AAA for CF insurance (which will undoubtedly be needed).  Hellman, on paper, could be useful due to his positional flexibility, but I don’t think he’s really a major leaguer at this point.  Camargo probably isn’t a starting catcher, but there are certainly worse guys playing backup catcher in the league.  

This brings me to Brooks Lee.  His stats were extremely underwhelming and while he has at least a little power, wasn’t strong at the plate.  Overall he’s no better than Julien or Martin.  Defensively, he plays a solid third and can back up shortstop (which is very useful potentially), but I don’t think he can be the super utility guy that Castro has become (nor do the Twins want him for that I believe).  However, if he weren’t a highly touted prospect, we would all be writing him off right now.  Somebody referenced David McCarty earlier.  Sadly, that is possible.  It has always seemed like Lee didn’t have a super high ceiling, but we’ve taken solace in the fact that his floor seemed to be very high.  Right now that floor looks pretty low.  I’m not writing Lee off yet, but it’s time to play if he’s really going to be a part of the future.  

Agree with you on the first 4 (although I would rather have Keirsey as the 25th roster guy than the AAA CF), but I think it's too early to write off Lee. He's only had 172 MLB AB. He moved up rapidly so I think we have to let him have a 400 + AB year before we will have a good sense of his offensive potential. I expect that he will be the starting 2B, possibly in a semi-platoon with Julien or Castro,  We will know a year from now if he can be solid MLB hitter. It's worth the investment of time IMHO. 

[RpR]

27 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agree with you on the first 4 (although I would rather have Keirsey as the 25th roster guy than the AAA CF), but I think it's too early to write off Lee. He's only had 172 MLB AB. He moved up rapidly so I think we have to let him have a 400 + AB year before we will have a good sense of his offensive potential. I expect that he will be the starting 2B, possible in a semi-platoon with Julien or Castro,  We will know a year form now if he can be solid MLB hitter. It's worth the investment of time IMHO. 

Niether Lee, nor heaven forbid, Julien should play Second Base; the only spot Lee has shown a knack for is Third Base, where he could replace Lewis if Lewis has now shown how good a bat he really is.

[bean5302]

Brooks Lee looks like a utility infielder to me, if his bat improves that is. He doesn't currently have the speed necessary to be hold his own in the outfield. Unfortunately, his biggest weakness at the MLB level this year was catching up to fastballs, and that's the pitch MLB caliber hitters really need to be able to hit. I don't think there's honestly a huge difference between the fastballs at AAA and the fastballs at the MLB level. It's the breaking pitches which seem to be the death knell for prospects so there's still some hope Lee can adjust, but Lee's performance in 2023 at the AAA level is not encouraging, either. The short time at AAA in 2024 showed huge ISO numbers for Lee in a SSS so it's tough to say how reliable the data is on him at all. Consider Buxton was pretty awful against fastballs this past year for the first 200 plate appearances (-4.2) before utterly obliterating them the rest of the year finishing at +11, and Lee's total ineptness (-5.7) for 185 PA doesn't look insurmountable.

All I know is he was utterly overpowered at the plate against MLB pitching. He chased too much, he couldn't catch up to fastballs and he failed to drive balls at a passable level. He's certainly not going to win any gold gloves with his physical ability limitations so he's going to need to put some stuff together.

"He's just a rookie" yep. He is, and there's plenty of reasons to be excited about his potential given how smooth he can look out there, and the fact he's already playing at the MLB level. Jackson Holliday is from the same draft class and produced very similar overall results at the plate with a wRC+ 63 campaign in a very similar sample size of around 200 PA. Only 4 position players from the 21 selections in the first round of 2022's draft class have made MLB, and most of the others haven't been lighting the world on fire in the minors, either. It's honestly just looking like a really weak class to me.

1. a20 SS Jackson Holliday wRC+ 63 - MLB
2. a20 OF Druw Jones wRC+ 125 - A Ball
4. a20 SS Termarr Johnson wRC+ 98 - AA
5. a20 OF Elijah Green wRC+ 94 - A Ball
6. a23 3B Jacob Berry wRC+ 75 - AAA
8. a23 SS Brooks Lee wRC+ 62 - MLB
9. a23 OF Gavin Cross wRC+ 115 - AA
11. a23 C Kevin Parada wRC+ 93 - AA
12. a23 3B Jace Jung wRC+ 102 - MLB
13. a23 SS Zach Neto wRC+ 114 - MLB
14. a20 SS Jett Williams wRC+ 192 - AAA in 30 PA (wRC+ 62 in 101 PA at AA)
16. a22 OF Chase DeLauter wRC+ 185 - AAA in 27 PA (wRC+ 118 in 128 PA at AA)
17. a20 OF Justin Crawford wRC+ 140 - AA
18. a19 3B Cam Collier wRC+ 129 - A+
19. a23 C Daniel Susac wRC+ 103 - AA
21. a20 SS Cole Young wRC+ 119 - AA
24. a20 SS Mickey Romero wRC+ 118 - AA
25. a23 OF Spencer Jones wRC+ 124 - AA
27. a23 SS Eric Brown Jr. wRC+ 62 - AA
28. a23 OF Drew Gilbert wRC+ 85 - AAA
29. a20 1B Xavier Isaac wRC+ 113 - AA

MLB = 19%
AAA = 19%
AA = 48%
A+ = 5%
A = 9% 

Just have to wait and see if Lee can adapt to MLB fastballs, and I suspect we'll know that by mid next year. Lee will almost certainly be on the opening day roster given the Twins' payroll crunch.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

None of these guys look like they are going to be a major piece of the puzzle next year at the major league level, but some may contribute on the margins.  I hope I’m wrong (or that they’re not needed at all!).   Austin Martin appears to be an OK platoon bat with no power that is worth having around to pinch run and play a utility role (if you don’t care much about defense).  Keirsay is certainly useful to stash at AAA for CF insurance (which will undoubtedly be needed).  Hellman, on paper, could be useful due to his positional flexibility, but I don’t think he’s really a major leaguer at this point.  Camargo probably isn’t a starting catcher, but there are certainly worse guys playing backup catcher in the league.  

This brings me to Brooks Lee.  His stats were extremely underwhelming and while he has at least a little power, wasn’t strong at the plate.  Overall he’s no better than Julien or Martin.  Defensively, he plays a solid third and can back up shortstop (which is very useful potentially), but I don’t think he can be the super utility guy that Castro has become (nor do the Twins want him for that I believe).  However, if he weren’t a highly touted prospect, we would all be writing him off right now.  Somebody referenced David McCarty earlier.  Sadly, that is possible.  It has always seemed like Lee didn’t have a super high ceiling, but we’ve taken solace in the fact that his floor seemed to be very high.  Right now that floor looks pretty low.  I’m not writing Lee off yet, but it’s time to play if he’s really going to be a part of the future.  

You don't write off a guy after this little time, not if you want to win long term. Seriously. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You don't write off a guy after this little time, not if you want to win long term. Seriously. 

I agree with you.  I’m not writing him off, but there need to be some alarm bells going off in his head and the Twins’ collective heads.  He was billed for so long as the “sure thing”, but he is looking a little wobbly in his first taste of MLB action.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I agree with you.  I’m not writing him off, but there need to be some alarm bells going off in his head and the Twins’ collective heads.  He was billed for so long as the “sure thing”, but he is looking a little wobbly in his first taste of MLB action.  

It was a rough year for a lot of rookies that were "sure things" across the league (hitter edition). I'm not going to worry about this rough start. 

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

 he is looking a little wobbly in his first taste of MLB action.  

Small sample size, major league versus AAA, but Brooks Lee might be one of the reasons they moved on from Popkins as hitting coach - just never found a way to get the kid comfortable at the plate.  The majors are harder than AAA, but not *this* much harder.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Small sample size, major league versus AAA, but Brooks Lee might be one of the reasons they moved on from Popkins as hitting coach - just never found a way to get the kid comfortable at the plate.  The majors are harder than AAA, but not *this* much harder.

Anecdotally, MLB insiders are saying the jump from AAA to the majors is bigger than ever. Whether that is true or not I don't know.

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Anecdotally, MLB insiders are saying the jump from AAA to the majors is bigger than ever. Whether that is true or not I don't know.

Flush him then, he'll never make it. 😀

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

You don't write off a guy after this little time, not if you want to win long term. Seriously. 

They did Gordon and some others, which was not a mistake, so probably neither would be getting rid of some of these.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Small sample size, major league versus AAA, but Brooks Lee might be one of the reasons they moved on from Popkins as hitting coach - just never found a way to get the kid comfortable at the plate.  The majors are harder than AAA, but not *this* much harder.

I agree with all of those things.  I’m just pointing out that this “sure thing” hasn’t taken the league by storm.  He still can.  There’s still time, but his performance (albeit in a ridiculously small sample size) so far has more flashing red and yellow lights than green ones.  Assuming that he’s going to jump in next year and be a star isn’t really any more assured than Julien recovering from a sophomore slump or Miranda staying healthy and hitting.  My fear is that with budgets being what they are, Lee will be handed a spot to lose instead of competing for a spot to win.  

 

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I agree with all of those things.  I’m just pointing out that this “sure thing” hasn’t taken the league by storm.  He still can.  There’s still time, but his performance (albeit in a ridiculously small sample size) so far has more flashing red and yellow lights than green ones. 

Small sample or not, the eye-test confirms the numbers he put up - not hopeless at the plate but far from a reliable bat. 

For what little it's worth, my own 40-man roster at the moment has him assigned to St Paul to begin the next season - he's not yet someone I rely on, much less count on to be a star in 2025.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

Small sample or not, the eye-test confirms the numbers he put up - not hopeless at the plate but far from a reliable bat. 

For what little it's worth, my own 40-man roster at the moment has him assigned to St Paul to begin the next season - he's not yet someone I rely on, much less count on to be a star in 2025.

Who's your SS when CC is out? Castro?

[ashbury]

Quote

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who's your SS when CC is out? Castro?

 

Very short term, probably.  More than a day or three, probably bring Lee up and pray.  But Lee's not really a finished product at SS either - Castro might be steadier, just less talent and upside with the glove.

Fair question.  There isn't anyone else in the organization and they're not bringing in anyone of note.  Maybe Helman holds the fort at SS for some kind of medium-term stint, based only on his usage at St Paul where they apparently viewed him as viable, if barely?

Really the only benefit to AAA for Lee is less urgency while he continues to "work on some things" he is assigned to work on in Ft. Myers in Feb/March.  The plan is that he makes the case, himself, for promotion, rather than have it be due strictly to need at the major league level.  If he doesn't, the cupboard is kinda bare - Ben Ross might have the glove but is far from ready with the bat.  Rayne Doncon, Jose Salas? Hahaha. (😢)

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Anecdotally, MLB insiders are saying the jump from AAA to the majors is bigger than ever. Whether that is true or not I don't know.

Do you think they mean the jump itself has become harder?  Or is it that AAA batting stats are inflated* (my rule of thumb is that OPS is .050 higher at AAA than it was a few years ago and that might be understanding it), making major-league projections out of date or perhaps more tricky?  I already take that latter POV into account when saying that Lee's hitting in the majors really doesn't reflect what his AAA numbers were suggesting.   But I also can't equate the body language I saw with him in the majors to the .900 OPS he had at St. Paul - and things like BABIP don't do enough to account for it either.

* The semi-automated strike zone is an easy first guess as to why.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Do you think they mean the jump itself has become harder?  Or is it that AAA batting stats are inflated* (my rule of thumb is that OPS is .050 higher at AAA than it was a few years ago and that might be understanding it), making major-league projections out of date or perhaps more tricky?  I already take that latter POV into account when saying that Lee's hitting in the majors really doesn't reflect what his AAA numbers were suggesting.   But I also can't equate the body language I saw with him in the majors to the .900 OPS he had at St. Paul - and things like BABIP don't do enough to account for it either.

* The semi-automated strike zone is an easy first guess as to why.

There are a lot less good pitchers in AAA, so hitters have a harder time getting started (that's what I've read).

[ashbury]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There are a lot less good pitchers in AAA, so hitters have a harder time getting started (that's what I've read).

Bring the automated strike zone / challenge system to the majors and watch the number of good pitchers there go down too.  😀

That's my theory and I'm sticking with it anyway.

[Linus]

“Grading out as a plus arm in the outfield “. Apparently I was watching a Martin stunt double - he has an arm like a leg.