Simeon Woods Richardson Has A New Weapon

[Cody Pirkl]

Simeon Woods Richardson has blown past his previous high in innings in a successful rookie season. As he struggles to make it to the finish line, however, he’s made some interesting adjustments.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Simeon Woods Richardson’s season has been a massive success, and one of the more unexpected developments on the 2024 Twins. The team asked much more of him than anyone could have expected, resulting in a career-high innings count and noticeably diminished stuff down the stretch. How has Woods Richardson combated the fatigue?

We heard some chatter of Woods Richardson having made some mechanical changes and increasing his velocity this spring. The hope was that, even if his days as a starter were numbered following a tremendously disappointing 2023 season, he could play up in a bullpen role. Instead, he took a starting rotation spot from Louie Varland four turns into the season and hasn’t let go. 

Woods Richardson’s fastball increased from under 91 mph in 2023, to over 93 in 2024. We even saw him run it up into the high 90s at times, in the peak of the summer. Unfortunately, this newfound velo and a heavy workload have led to a decline in stuff on the pitch down the stretch, and Woods Richardson has had to adjust.

In August, Woods Richardson's heater reached a season-high of 93.5, but it has lost over a full tick in September, at 92.1. The pitch's effectiveness is reflected in the Stuff+ numbers, as his fastball has dropped from an already below-average 72 to an unplayable 62.

An obvious adjustment would be to throw the pitch less often. After all, Woods Richardson has a slider in his repertoire, which has been his best pitch regarding opponent success and whiff rates. It would be fair to expect him to ramp up this usage as his fastball becomes less effective. That’s not what Woods Richardson decided on, though,

Woods Richardson threw his slider 34% of the time in July, more than any other month. In August, he dropped the usage to 29.9%, and has held it there so far in September. He instead opted to increase the usage of his curveball, which had been a much less effective pitch in the early going. It seems he was onto something.

The curveball has been Woods Richardson’s best pitch for the last two months. The pitch has spiked in whiff rate and has only allowed one hit--a ground-ball single--since Aug. 1. What gives?

There are a few possible explanations. First, SWR’s slider may have become less effective as the fastball velocity has dipped. Perhaps with a slower heater, the curveball plays off of it better than the slider, which may be less deceptive as Woods Richardson has slowed down.

The physical characteristics of the pitch haven't changed all that much, but starting in August, he has thrown the pitch a bit harder, just as his fastball has started coming in a bit slower. He's also landing it more in the strike zone, and specifically in the middle and upper portions thereof, including to the arm side. Before August, it was a pitch he targeted solely to the glove side, away from righty batters and in toward the back foot of lefties.

Normally, it's not a great idea to live in the middle of the zone with your curveball, but when your curve is 15 or more miles per hour slower than the fastball, it can fool hitters and earn a lot of called strikes or hilarious, overcooked whiffs that way. Targeting the arm side of the plate more has also taken the horizontal wiggle out of the pitch, from the hitter's vantage point, making it harder to distinguish it early from the fastball. It's still a pitch with a really steep angle of entry into the hitting zone, coming from the lanky Richardson's fairly high release. Put all that together, and his Stuff+ on the curve has jumped from 100 through the end of August to 125 in September.

It’s also worth noting that the spin rates on the curveball have dropped off a bit in recent months. It directly coincides with when the pitch became so dominant. While it’s possible that the spin rates have dropped off as he’s felt less fresh, it’s also possible a new grip or cue was found when throwing the pitch to reduce a bit of spin, and the results have been exciting.

The latter option is obviously the one to hope for. For as good as Woods Richardson has been as a rookie, it’s felt like his upside has been capped because of his lack of strikeouts. His fastball had been serviceable, and his slider had been his go-to offspeed pitch. If he’s found another effective tool to add to his repertoire, it’s possible we’re looking at a different Simeon Woods Richardson in 2025. The curve might help him survive another fistful of crucial innings, if the team asks him to work in relief to save the season this weekend or if he's called upon for a playoff start next week. Failing that, though, it gives him one more way to adapt and thrive next year.

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[thelanges5]

Berrios trade looking better. SWR had a good rookie season. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

SWR definitely a bright spot in a season that turned out to be quite underwhelming. Excited to see him in 2025.

[1985Fan]

I’m most impressed with his improvement over last year and his confidence on the mound. He’s not afraid of any team or players, seems like he has a body built for endurance, and has the mentality to be effective. 
I hope he is able to build on this years success and look forward to watching him next year! 

[Linus]

As disappointing as this season has been where would we be without SWR. Looks like we have a solid back of the rotation guy for several years. 

[TwinsDr2021]

SWR had a good season, "massive success" is a ridiculous statement. He averaged less than 5 innings per start and completed 5 innings in only 4 of his last 13 starts. He was huge, vital in helping the Twins lack of starting depth this year.

You might want to look at Gavin Stone, Paul Skenes, Tobias Myers, Mitchell Parker, or Spencer Schwellenbach for a massive success.

With that said I believe he has a pretty good chance of having a decent career.

 

[jmlease1]

SWR has been quite good this season, and while he's struggled to get to the finish line (I suspect if we'd had more options, like Paddack coming back or Ryan not being done for the season they would have found a reason to give him a break/skip in the rotation) he's shown plenty to be in the rotation for next season. I'm impressed with how he's stayed healthy this season and made adjustments to keep surviving out there.

He's still got upside and growth potential as he refines his pitches and deploys them better.

[Brett]

Thanks for the hope, Cody. It’s in short supply right now.

[rv78]

If he's going to be an effective starter going forward, he better develop a third or even 4th pitch he can rely on, or he'll eventually just become another bullpen piece, which it seems, is where most of the Twins starters end up.

[LambchoP]

I do think he needs another out pitch, and has to find a way to be more efficient and go deeper into games. However, he really saved our rotation this year and I think he can become a stable back of the rotation starter for a lot of years. I hope next years rotation will look something like this .

Lopez, Ober, Ryan

SWR and Free Agent (Eovaldi, Mannae, Flaherty, Kikuchi

Paddack in the pen with Varland. Festa and Mathews first up in AAA. 

I highly doubt we spend on a starter though, so I guess we'll roll with Festa or Paddack as our fifth starter, which doesn't leave much experienced depth for injury insurance.

[Otaknam]

I’m not sure “massive” is the best adjective to describe SWR’s season. He was generally effective and often gave them innings as a number five starter. And unlike Paddock and Ryan, he was able to finish the season without injury. Unless he develops a 97 mph fastball or another good secondary pitch, number five starter seems to be his ceiling, not much of a return for Berrios.

[Russ]

Some success, not massive

[bean5302]

I think it was a massively successful season for Sim. He went from potential DFA/release candidate to start the year to effective back end rotation arm. He certainly helped the Twins while arguably matching the much over-hyped, yet perplexingly pitching just like he has most of his career, Pablo Lopez through most of the season.

First start, April 13th through August
3.85 ERA, 4.03 FIP,  52% starts 5.0+ IP and ERA under 4.00
vs. Pablo Lopez over the same span
3.95 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 58% starts 5.0+ IP and ERA under 4.00

Does he have a new weapon? I don't know if he does or not, but it's pretty obvious he needs to be able to sustain that 94mph avg. fastball to be successful. 92-93 was good enough at the beginning of the year, but when his fastball started to decline, the scouting reports were now out and it seems 93 was no longer enough to get it done. 

[Paul Walerius]

On 9/27/2024 at 11:57 AM, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

SWR definitely a bright spot in a season that turned out to be quite underwhelming. Excited to see him in 2025.

You could argue that Festa and Matthews were bright spots too.   I don't get into the analytics but from afar they seemed good.  Overall ERA may look scary but just like Sim, the increased workload played into that I believe.  

[Paul Walerius]

22 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I do think he needs another out pitch, and has to find a way to be more efficient and go deeper into games. However, he really saved our rotation this year and I think he can become a stable back of the rotation starter for a lot of years. I hope next years rotation will look something like this .

Lopez, Ober, Ryan

SWR and Free Agent (Eovaldi, Mannae, Flaherty, Kikuchi

Paddack in the pen with Varland. Festa and Mathews first up in AAA. 

I highly doubt we spend on a starter though, so I guess we'll roll with Festa or Paddack as our fifth starter, which doesn't leave much experienced depth for injury insurance.

Absolutely not.  Varland is no more than a pen guy.  I have been saying this since before the season started.    He proved it this year.   The pen is where they need the most help anyway.  

[LambchoP]

2 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

Absolutely not.  Varland is no more than a pen guy.  I have been saying this since before the season started.    He proved it this year.   The pen is where they need the most help anyway.  

That's why I said Paddack AND Varland in the bullpen. They gave him more than enough chances to start and it just didn't work out. Hopefully he can put together a solid season if he sticks to one inning outing where he can just let it fly. I'm guessing they will try to trade Paddack for salary relief, but if we are stuck with him I hope he doesn't take up a rotation spot. He'll either be on the IL or pitching in long relief due to inconsistent performance.

[Paul Walerius]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

That's why I said Paddack AND Varland in the bullpen. They gave him more than enough chances to start and it just didn't work out. Hopefully he can put together a solid season if he sticks to one inning outing where he can just let it fly. I'm guessing they will try to trade Paddack for salary relief, but if we are stuck with him I hope he doesn't take up a rotation spot. He'll either be on the IL or pitching in long relief due to inconsistent performance.

My fault I read it fast and thought you said with Varland, Festa and Matthews being first up from AAA