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Simeon Woods Richardson’s season has been a massive success, and one of the more unexpected developments on the 2024 Twins. The team asked much more of him than anyone could have expected, resulting in a career-high innings count and noticeably diminished stuff down the stretch. How has Woods Richardson combated the fatigue?
We heard some chatter of Woods Richardson having made some mechanical changes and increasing his velocity this spring. The hope was that, even if his days as a starter were numbered following a tremendously disappointing 2023 season, he could play up in a bullpen role. Instead, he took a starting rotation spot from Louie Varland four turns into the season and hasn’t let go.
Woods Richardson’s fastball increased from under 91 mph in 2023, to over 93 in 2024. We even saw him run it up into the high 90s at times, in the peak of the summer. Unfortunately, this newfound velo and a heavy workload have led to a decline in stuff on the pitch down the stretch, and Woods Richardson has had to adjust.
In August, Woods Richardson's heater reached a season-high of 93.5, but it has lost over a full tick in September, at 92.1. The pitch's effectiveness is reflected in the Stuff+ numbers, as his fastball has dropped from an already below-average 72 to an unplayable 62.
An obvious adjustment would be to throw the pitch less often. After all, Woods Richardson has a slider in his repertoire, which has been his best pitch regarding opponent success and whiff rates. It would be fair to expect him to ramp up this usage as his fastball becomes less effective. That’s not what Woods Richardson decided on, though,
Woods Richardson threw his slider 34% of the time in July, more than any other month. In August, he dropped the usage to 29.9%, and has held it there so far in September. He instead opted to increase the usage of his curveball, which had been a much less effective pitch in the early going. It seems he was onto something.
The curveball has been Woods Richardson’s best pitch for the last two months. The pitch has spiked in whiff rate and has only allowed one hit--a ground-ball single--since Aug. 1. What gives?
There are a few possible explanations. First, SWR’s slider may have become less effective as the fastball velocity has dipped. Perhaps with a slower heater, the curveball plays off of it better than the slider, which may be less deceptive as Woods Richardson has slowed down.
The physical characteristics of the pitch haven't changed all that much, but starting in August, he has thrown the pitch a bit harder, just as his fastball has started coming in a bit slower. He's also landing it more in the strike zone, and specifically in the middle and upper portions thereof, including to the arm side. Before August, it was a pitch he targeted solely to the glove side, away from righty batters and in toward the back foot of lefties.
Normally, it's not a great idea to live in the middle of the zone with your curveball, but when your curve is 15 or more miles per hour slower than the fastball, it can fool hitters and earn a lot of called strikes or hilarious, overcooked whiffs that way. Targeting the arm side of the plate more has also taken the horizontal wiggle out of the pitch, from the hitter's vantage point, making it harder to distinguish it early from the fastball. It's still a pitch with a really steep angle of entry into the hitting zone, coming from the lanky Richardson's fairly high release. Put all that together, and his Stuff+ on the curve has jumped from 100 through the end of August to 125 in September.
It’s also worth noting that the spin rates on the curveball have dropped off a bit in recent months. It directly coincides with when the pitch became so dominant. While it’s possible that the spin rates have dropped off as he’s felt less fresh, it’s also possible a new grip or cue was found when throwing the pitch to reduce a bit of spin, and the results have been exciting.
The latter option is obviously the one to hope for. For as good as Woods Richardson has been as a rookie, it’s felt like his upside has been capped because of his lack of strikeouts. His fastball had been serviceable, and his slider had been his go-to offspeed pitch. If he’s found another effective tool to add to his repertoire, it’s possible we’re looking at a different Simeon Woods Richardson in 2025. The curve might help him survive another fistful of crucial innings, if the team asks him to work in relief to save the season this weekend or if he's called upon for a playoff start next week. Failing that, though, it gives him one more way to adapt and thrive next year.
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