Three Twins Players Whose Seasons Nobody Saw Coming

[Cody Christie]

The 2024 Twins' team would be in real trouble without these three players blowing away preseason expectations. 

Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, MLB.com’s Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru ran through nine players exceeding expectations during the 2024 campaign. The list includes some All-Stars, some role players, and even one former Twin (Brent Rooker). Every team has players who have exceeded, met, or fallen short of their preseason expectations. Let’s look at the three names who have provided surprise performances for Minnesota. 

Simeon Woods Richardson , RHP
Preseason ZIPs Projection: 4.67 ERA, 112 IP, 90 K, 1.0 WAR
2024 Season: 3.85 ERA, 117 IP, 102 K, 1.7 WAR
Woods Richardson has outperformed his preseason projections, emerging as a critical contributor to the pitching staff. He was projected as a back-end starter or middle-relief option due to his youth and relatively limited big-league experience. Last season, his velocity was topping out in the low-90s at Triple-A, so the Twins worked with "SWR" to make mechanical adjustments. With the changes, his fastball velocity has increased from 90.5 mph in 2023 to 93.2 this season. With the velocity increase, his Whiff% on his four-seamer has increased from 13.6% to 21.3%. 

His increased velocity and improved mechanics have also assisted his secondary pitches, allowing for an uptick in his slider usage. He used the pitch only 14.4% of the time last season, and this season, he's relied on the pitch over 30% of the time. Batters have been limited to an 84.4 exit velocity versus his slider, including a .299 SLG, the lowest mark versus any of his pitches. Entering the season, it was easy to question what Woods Richardson would bring to the Twins in 2024, but he has saved the starting rotation. 

Willi Castro , UTL
Pre-Season ZIPs Projection: .691 OPS, 93 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
2024 Season: .744 OPS, 108 OPS+, 3.3 WAR
Despite his solid 2023 season, Castro’s preseason projections were below average. He's outplayed those projections while earning his first All-Star selection. In the first half, he hit .266/.352/.422 (.774) with 25 extra-base hits in 67 games. Castro ranks third on the team, according to fWAR, behind Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. He has fought through some back soreness in the second half but has been able to fill in for the injured Correa at shortstop. The Twins will likely need Castro at important up-the-middle positions, with Correa's return not being imminent. 

In addition to his offensive breakout, Castro's defensive versatility has been invaluable to the Twins. He has seamlessly rotated between infield and outfield positions, providing solid defense wherever needed. He is the first player in MLB history to appear in at least 20 games at second base, third base, shortstop, center field, and leftfield, all in the same season. His ability to play multiple positions at a high level has allowed the Twins to navigate injuries and rest regular starters without a drop-off in performance. Castro is in the conversation as the team's MVP this season because of what he has been able to offer on both sides of the ball. 

Griffin Jax , RHP
Preseason ZIPs Projection: 4.21 ERA, 77 IP, 79 K 0.7 WAR
2024 Season: 1.70 ERA, 58 IP, 76 K, 2.1 WAR
Jax has significantly outperformed his preseason projections, establishing himself as one of baseball's top relief pitchers. Initially expected to serve as a reliable set-up man, Jax has transformed into a dominant late-inning force. Jax leads Twins relievers in fWAR and sits in fourth place overall behind the team's top three starters (Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober). Recently, Nick Nelson argued that Jax is in the conversation as the Twins' MVP this season. 

His sweeper, in particular, has become a devastating weapon against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He worked at Driveline last winter to improve his mechanics, and the results are evident. His sweeper velocity has increased by over two miles per hour, helping him to improve from a 28.6 Whiff% in 2023 to a 42.7 Whiff% this season. His changeup has also produced a Whiff% over 48% with a 31.6 Put-Away%. Much like Woods Richardson has saved the rotation, Jax has helped to solidify the bullpen.

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Which performance is most surprising? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[HRick53]

I would add Cole Sands to the list- probably even more of a surprise than JAX or Castro who gave us hints of sucess in the past.

[mikelink45]

My players - BR War, Zips Fangraph

How about Larnach 1.2 WAR, 0.3

Wallner projected 1.8 actual 2.1 in a very shortened season.

Then there are those who fall below projection.  Kepler has 0.9 and a long way to get to 2.1

Julien projected for 2.8 actual 0.4 

Pitching has Varland and Paddock below projections.  

[LambchoP]

Good picks. I'd put Sands and Larnach on here as well. Both have performed really well and solidified starting roles on the big league club next year.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, HRick53 said:

I would add Cole Sands to the list- probably even more of a surprise than JAX or Castro who gave us hints of sucess in the past.

I totally agree with you there. I was expecting a lot of good things from SWR, Castro & Jax. But Sands. was questionable IMO & many had written him off, So his success IMO was the greatest surprise of all. Even Alcala who wasn't mentioned either, I was expecting more from. Alcala had been gone for about a year on the IL due to injury, surgery and recovery. I don't think Baldelli thought much of Alcala, delaying his permanent call up. IMO Alcala will continue to have success as long as he's managed correctly related to just coming back from his long IL stint. By pitching him in nonconsecutive, 1 inning outings.

Jax. Sands & Alcala stepping up has really helped because of Duran & Thielbar slipping plus the injury of Stewart, The stepping up of Castro has been especially appreciated because the injuries of Lewis, Correa & Buxton filling in admirably defensively & offensively. Not to mention the slumping of many players. Through the absence of DeSclavani & Varland was inefficient as SP. later with long term injuries to Paddack & Ryan. Questionable by many SWR stepped up & has given us some stability in the rotation & has given us a chance to win in practically all his outings.

These men have stepped up to keep us in the race along with Miranda & ascending Larnach & Wallner, They will take us to the Dance but we need Lopez, Ober, Lewis. Correa & Buxton to perform there.

[jmlease1]

I would disagree on Castro & Jax.

The projections on Castro were about assumptions of regression, since he'd only had one season where he'd shown he could be this level of player. But I think while the Twins weren't expecting him to be an all-star pick, they did think he could be this guy again, and so did the fans. So while the projection systems might not have seen it coming, plenty of other people did.

Jax elevated to a different gear this season, but he's been a quality reliever the prior two years, so I'm not sure this was really a shocker either. We'll see whether he's able to sustain this new level next season, but I'm not exactly surprised to see a reliever in his prime have a career season.

SWR is the real surprise. He'd been struggling a little in AAA, the velocity had been down, he hadn't really had extended periods of dominance in the minors recently, and while I still believed in his talent, it was hard to envision this level of sustained success in MLB this early. He's been good all season, and hasn't been showing sign of fatigue. It's really impressive to see him crushing the innings projections too: he's never pitched this many innings in a season, and it's not really all that close once you add in his AAA innings from this season. Great job by him in seizing the opportunity and not letting go.

[Fatbat]

Miranda could also be in this conversation.

[Kevin Urdahl]

I would also put Jose Miranda on this list. I think Willi Castro and Griffin Jax are not that surprising. Preseason projections for them were pessimistic.

[Blyleven2011]

The season is almost over and the only player that I knew that went to driveline was Ryan before the season started , lately Vazquez  was in an article about driveline to help his hitting  and now in this article Jax has been  mentioned to driveline  ...

All 3 players improved  , Ryan went for the second year on a row,  ...

I would like to see an article from twins daily writers before the 2025 season on who went to driveline to enhance their performance  , it has certainly helped some players , we might have had other players go to driveline but I don't know who ...

The front office  could report this to the fans also  , it wouldn't be giving away any secrets ...

It would also help the fans on gauging what kind of a season that player might have  ...

Did larnach go to driveline  , he has improved this season  ???

[Schmoeman5]

28 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The season is almost over and the only player that I knew that went to driveline was Ryan before the season started , lately Vazquez  was in an article about driveline to help his hitting  and now in this article Jax has been  mentioned to driveline  ...

All 3 players improved  , Ryan went for the second year on a row,  ...

I would like to see an article from twins daily writers before the 2025 season on who went to driveline to enhance their performance  , it has certainly helped some players , we might have had other players go to driveline but I don't know who ...

The front office  could report this to the fans also  , it wouldn't be giving away any secrets ...

It would also help the fans on gauging what kind of a season that player might have  ...

Did larnach go to driveline  , he has improved this season  ???

No. To your last question.

[Brandon]

Does Velazquez resurgence rank yet?  
 

My three are

1. Woods-Richardson

2. Santana

3. Sands.

Then Miranda then Larnarch then Alcala  (you can swap Sands and Miranda if you want) but I had no expectations for Sands while I believed if his shoulder was sound and he worked out the rust that Miranda could be similar to what he is now.  His average is higher than expected. 

I believed in Jax and Castro.  I didn’t expect the all star for Castro.  
 

Since we are keeping Buxton and Correa long term, a three year 24-30 million evenly distributed (front loaded contract extension) makes sense for Castro. 

[twinstalker]

I was ready to argue with whatever choices, but the best I'll do is that Willi Castro was foreseeable.  I'm not even sure his numbers are that different from last year.  Quick check:  they're the same.

Fun fact:  ZIPS projections are regressed to the mean, and that means better players will have lower predictions than their previous year (in general).  In a sense a player popping up as Castro did in 2023 is always a good choice to predict worse stats for the following year, but there are a number of other factors, including moving closer to prime hitting age (age 27/28 is the general peak, and he's 27 this year).  While the probability of Castro matching his stats from last year weren't overwhelming, this doesn't really surprise despite a 2023 uptick in BABIP.

I think Jax and SWR are very surprising, Jax in his dominance, SWR in his competence.  Good choices.

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Miranda could also be in this conversation.

That's who I thought of too. The fact that he came back up from the minors and stayed, plus he's hitting around .300. A very pleasant surprise!

[Fatbat]

27 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

That's who I thought of too. The fact that he came back up from the minors and stayed, plus he's hitting around .300. A very pleasant surprise!

.810 ops and 3 war. Probably projected at 0.015 war in March. Lol

[Riverbrian]

Players nobody saw coming. Every year a list like this can be compiled. 

You can also put together a yearly list called "Players nobody thought would fall apart". 

 

 

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

Here are the players I would single out:

#1.  Jose Miranda--I had all but given up on Jose.  I was throwing him into every off season trade I could to try to acquire a SP better than the DeSclafani-esque options.  He has shown that his injury last year really affected him and that he can be a reliable middle of the order hitter.  He's fully back in the Twins plans in my opinion.  And I didn't see this coming.

#2.  Trevor Larnach--Once again, I had all but given up on Trevor.  After seeing him be "The Man" who led Oregon State to a College World Series Championship I had high expectations for him.  Year after year I was disappointed.  Finally, this year, he has remained healthy and he has impressed.  I never heard an exit velocity for his 3-run homer yesterday, but it looked like 130 mph.  It. Was. A. Rocket !! 

#3.  Griffen Jax--Jax should be #1 based upon what he's done this year.  I knew he was a good RP.  Solid and dependable.  I expected him to have a good year.  I did not expect him to be GREAT.  He should have been an All Star.  It's that simple.  The two guys ahead of him I had much lower expectations.  You could make an argument that the Twins should make Jax their closer and Duran the setup man.  Duran has the eye popping fastball but nowhere near the command Jax has.  Jax is dependable.  Duran (this year) has not been.

#4.  Cole Sands--Again, my expectations for Sands were quite low.  He had done little to give me any kind of confidence that he would even be on the roster.  With all our bullpen issues, the kid has been a ROCK.  Where would this team be without his solid, steady, and consistent contributions? 

I expected Willie Castro to be what he's been this year.  I could be accused of taking him for granted but that's not the case.  I just simply "expected" him to be right where he is.  Buxton has been better than I thought he'd be.  I expected Correa would bounce back, and he has.  We just need these two to be healthy for the stretch run.

Now to those who have disappointed:  Julien--BIG drop off from what I expected.  Kirilloff--Hurt again.  But I wouldn't give up on him yet.  Miranda taught me that.  Pablo Lopez.  His last 4-5 starts are what we expected all year.  It took waaay to long for him to get there.  Duran--He's capable of so much more.  He needs better command.  I wish he'd throw more fastballs. 

Finally...The Pohlad Family--Yes, you guys saved baseball in Minnesota when Bud Selig wanted to contract us and we've got 2 World Series Championships under your ownership.  But after the momentum the team created heading into this year from 2023 you consistently disappointed your fan base by acting like bankers instead of owners who would be willing to accept a little risk for a larger payoff.  INVEST. IN. YOUR. TEAM.  Your penurious ways have us relying on THREE rookies in the starting rotation.  I can't remember a contender having that kind of situation in baseball.  We have a great farm system, but the penny pinching on the major league level is hurting your product.  Just take a look at what Cleveland and Kansas City have been willing to do compared to us.  

 

[saviking]

22 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The season is almost over and the only player that I knew that went to driveline was Ryan before the season started , lately Vazquez  was in an article about driveline to help his hitting  and now in this article Jax has been  mentioned to driveline  ...

All 3 players improved  , Ryan went for the second year on a row,  ...

I would like to see an article from twins daily writers before the 2025 season on who went to driveline to enhance their performance  , it has certainly helped some players , we might have had other players go to driveline but I don't know who ...

The front office  could report this to the fans also  , it wouldn't be giving away any secrets ...

It would also help the fans on gauging what kind of a season that player might have  ...

Did larnach go to driveline  , he has improved this season  ???

Pretty soon, there might be a long line to get in the drive line. I wonder if they have a drive-through..