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Earlier this week, MLB.com’s Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru ran through nine players exceeding expectations during the 2024 campaign. The list includes some All-Stars, some role players, and even one former Twin (Brent Rooker). Every team has players who have exceeded, met, or fallen short of their preseason expectations. Let’s look at the three names who have provided surprise performances for Minnesota.
Simeon Woods Richardson , RHP
Preseason ZIPs Projection: 4.67 ERA, 112 IP, 90 K, 1.0 WAR
2024 Season: 3.85 ERA, 117 IP, 102 K, 1.7 WAR
Woods Richardson has outperformed his preseason projections, emerging as a critical contributor to the pitching staff. He was projected as a back-end starter or middle-relief option due to his youth and relatively limited big-league experience. Last season, his velocity was topping out in the low-90s at Triple-A, so the Twins worked with "SWR" to make mechanical adjustments. With the changes, his fastball velocity has increased from 90.5 mph in 2023 to 93.2 this season. With the velocity increase, his Whiff% on his four-seamer has increased from 13.6% to 21.3%.
His increased velocity and improved mechanics have also assisted his secondary pitches, allowing for an uptick in his slider usage. He used the pitch only 14.4% of the time last season, and this season, he's relied on the pitch over 30% of the time. Batters have been limited to an 84.4 exit velocity versus his slider, including a .299 SLG, the lowest mark versus any of his pitches. Entering the season, it was easy to question what Woods Richardson would bring to the Twins in 2024, but he has saved the starting rotation.
Willi Castro , UTL
Pre-Season ZIPs Projection: .691 OPS, 93 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
2024 Season: .744 OPS, 108 OPS+, 3.3 WAR
Despite his solid 2023 season, Castro’s preseason projections were below average. He's outplayed those projections while earning his first All-Star selection. In the first half, he hit .266/.352/.422 (.774) with 25 extra-base hits in 67 games. Castro ranks third on the team, according to fWAR, behind Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. He has fought through some back soreness in the second half but has been able to fill in for the injured Correa at shortstop. The Twins will likely need Castro at important up-the-middle positions, with Correa's return not being imminent.
In addition to his offensive breakout, Castro's defensive versatility has been invaluable to the Twins. He has seamlessly rotated between infield and outfield positions, providing solid defense wherever needed. He is the first player in MLB history to appear in at least 20 games at second base, third base, shortstop, center field, and leftfield, all in the same season. His ability to play multiple positions at a high level has allowed the Twins to navigate injuries and rest regular starters without a drop-off in performance. Castro is in the conversation as the team's MVP this season because of what he has been able to offer on both sides of the ball.
Griffin Jax , RHP
Preseason ZIPs Projection: 4.21 ERA, 77 IP, 79 K 0.7 WAR
2024 Season: 1.70 ERA, 58 IP, 76 K, 2.1 WAR
Jax has significantly outperformed his preseason projections, establishing himself as one of baseball's top relief pitchers. Initially expected to serve as a reliable set-up man, Jax has transformed into a dominant late-inning force. Jax leads Twins relievers in fWAR and sits in fourth place overall behind the team's top three starters (Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober). Recently, Nick Nelson argued that Jax is in the conversation as the Twins' MVP this season.
His sweeper, in particular, has become a devastating weapon against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He worked at Driveline last winter to improve his mechanics, and the results are evident. His sweeper velocity has increased by over two miles per hour, helping him to improve from a 28.6 Whiff% in 2023 to a 42.7 Whiff% this season. His changeup has also produced a Whiff% over 48% with a 31.6 Put-Away%. Much like Woods Richardson has saved the rotation, Jax has helped to solidify the bullpen.
Which performance is most surprising? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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